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☆ Wall Street expects rate hikes are off the table for now. Next week’s inflation data will test that thesis
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Stocks have been churning higher lately after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated rate hikes are likely off the table , a position that investors expect is a bullish event for equities. A strong earnings season, as well as some cooler labor data , also have investors more optimistic in this year's outlook. On Friday, all three major averages are on pace for a winning week, with the 30-stock index up by more than 2%. The market reaction Inflation data has been crucially important this year for investors. Export Price Index (April) 8:30 a.m. Housing Starts (April) 8:30 a.m.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Mike Dickson, Stocks, Dickson, Jeff Buchbinder, Buchbinder, Strategas, Jason De Sena Trennert, Ken Mahoney, Mahoney, Charles Schwab, Price Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Treasury, Horizon Investments, Nasdaq, UBS, Investments, ICE, Fed, LPL, Asset Management, Walmart, Deere, Retail, Cisco, Price, Housing, Philadelphia Fed, Manufacturing, Materials Locations: NAHB

While he pulled back his price target to $26 from $32, the new target still indicates shares surging 126% from Wednesday's close. Fox's fiscal third quarter results came above Rief Ehrlich's expectations, which she noted were encouraging "amid a difficult linear advertising environment." — Fred Imbert 5:50 a.m.: Wall Street on the sidelines for Airbnb Airbnb's weaker-than-expected forward guidance has analysts worried about the company's growth outlook. Post pulled back his price target by $8 to $160, just 1.3% above where shares closed on Wednesday. Meanwhile, analyst Eric Sheridan moved his price target slightly higher to $130 from $123, suggesting around 18% downside.

Persons: Raymond James ., Jefferies, Dushyant Ailani, Ailani, — Hakyung Kim, Jessica Reif Ehrlich, … Fox, Davidson downgrades, Davidson, Tom White, Tripadvisor, we'd, White, Hakyung Kim, Raymond James Cheesecake Factory, Raymond James, Brian Vaccaro, Vaccaro, Andrew Boone, Shopify, Boone, Fred Imbert, Airbnb, LSEG, Morgan Stanley, Brian Nowak, Nowak, Bank of America's Justin Post, Post, Goldman Sachs, Eric Sheridan Organizations: CNBC, JPM Securities, Cheesecake, Bank of America, Fox, Media, of America, …, Factory, Cheesecake Factory, JMP Securities, Bank of America's Locations: Wednesday's, 2H24

☆ Dollar holds its ground as key inflation data looms
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. one hundred dollar bills are being shown in this picture illustration taken in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Dec. 15, 2023. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar slowly inched up after it fell more than 3% last week, its biggest weekly percentage drop since early December 2022. Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda on Thursday reiterated a warning that Tokyo is ready to take action in the currency market. The dollar index rose to 0.05% to 105.55, while the Japanese yen was mostly flat at 155.59 per greenback. The BOE is likely to take another step towards its first interest rate cut in four years as inflation falls.

Persons: Masafumi Yamamoto, Masato Kanda, Susan Collins, Sterling, BOE, bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of, Mizuho Securities, Traders, PPI, Fed Bank of Boston, European Central Bank Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Japan, U.S, United States, Tokyo, —

☆ A bearish options trade on a one-time tech darling that could struggle in the new AI world
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Tony Zhang | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

I think shares of the one-time cloud computing darling are at risk of falling even lower and I will give a bearish options trade to capitalize on it. As CRM matures and growth rates moderate, it simply cannot continue to command the industry-leading valuations it once did and has to face the reality of its fundamentals. This suggests that CRM will likely continue to trade back towards the midpoint of the range in the $210-220 area. This makes a valuation that is 40% higher than the S & P 500 harder to justify when growth rates are slowing down significantly. The trade With earnings in three weeks, CRM options prices are slightly elevated and warrant using a spread to lower the cost of seeking bearish exposure.

Locations: Salesforce

☆ A bearish options trade on Apple that wins if the buyback enthusiasm fades
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Nishant Pant | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Apple surged on Friday following Tim Cook's announcement of the largest stock buyback in stock market history. I'm aiming for a post-earnings "gap fill" trade on AAPL . Despite my long-term bullish outlook on AAPL, I'm considering a short-term bearish trade to fade this post-earnings spike. If AAPL starts against me, I would want to close the trade if I lose 50% of my investment (i.e., $125). BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: Apple, Tim Cook's, AAPL, Nishant Pant

☆ Will China's comeback stock rally last? Wall Street weighs in and shares stock picks
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

China stocks have staged such a strong rally after a protracted slump for the past few years that they're beating even the S & P 500 so far this year. The MSCI China index, which includes the mainland A-shares, Hong Kong-listed shares and U.S.-listed China names, has jumped around 9%, while the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF is up around 13%. Most analysts said whether the rally can be sustained will largely depend on China policy. How to play China Though most were bullish on China stocks, they would be selective in stock-picking. They include: SPDR S & P China ETF iShares MSCI China A ETF Global X MSCI China Consumer Disc ETF iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

Persons: Bernstein, it's, —, Goldman Sachs, Kevin Liu, CICC, Nomura's, Goldman, Kweichow, Ping, Morningstar, Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S, CSI China, Investors, CICC Research, CNBC, BYD, SAIC, Changan Automobile, Energy, Anhui, Cement, JPMorgan, Kuaishou, Ping An Insurance, China Merchants Bank, Hong, China, iShares, China Consumer Locations: China, Hong Kong

☆ Stocks are primed to tumble into a bear market as bullish investors have driven equities to 1929 extremes, famed fund manager says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market looks poised to fall from its extreme heights, legendary investor John Hussman said. Hussman said the stock market is mirroring the extremes leading up the 1929 crash. The S&P 500 has broken a series of record highs this year, and has regained momentum in recent days after a lackluster month in April. AdvertisementHussman's firm is expecting the S&P 500 to underperform Treasury bonds by 9.3% a year for the next 12 years, based on his firm's internal metrics. Just 39% of investors said they were bullish on stocks over the next 6 months, according to the AAII's latest Investor Sentiment Survey.

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, he's, — Organizations: Service, Investment Trust, Investor

The earnings season is winding down, but there are some names slated to report that could see big moves — in either direction. Already, more than 80% of companies in the S & P 500 have already posted quarterly results this earnings season as of Monday morning. Against that backdrop, CNBC Pro screened for names reporting this week — with market caps of $1 billion or more — that could experience sharp up- or downside moves, based on trading activity in the options market. Here are the names that made the list: Upstart Holdings is the reporter this week that could be in for the biggest move at nearly 19%. Rideshare stock Lyft also made the list.

Persons: Uber, America's Mihir Bhatia, Bhatia, Lyft, LSEG, Jefferies, John Colantuoni, Colantuoni, Bank of America's Jessica Reif Ehrlich, Ehrlich, WBD Organizations: Disney, CNBC Pro, Holdings, LSEG, Bank, America's, Warner Bros, Bank of America's Locations: California

☆ The US will see a recession by year-end that could spark a 30% drop in the stock market, legendary forecaster Gary Shilling says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A coming recession could end up sparking a "violent correction" in stocks, Gary Shilling told BI. The top forecaster pointed to warning signs of a downturn, such as a weaker job market. AdvertisementInvestors should be prepared for a recession with the potential to send the stock market plummeting this year, according to top forecaster Gary Shilling. That could be the final blow to the stock market rally fueled by investor overconfidence, causing stocks to drop by as much as 30%, Shilling said. Related storiesThe job market, for one, is "obviously slipping" as firms pull back on hiring, Shilling said.

Persons: Gary Shilling, —, overconfidence, Shilling, we've, we're Organizations: Service, Business, Wall, Employers, San Francisco, Treasury

☆ Dollar steady after soft U.S. jobs report; yen starts week on back foot
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar was broadly steady on Monday as a soft U.S. jobs report boosted wagers that the Federal Reserve may still cut rates twice this year, while the yen was a tad weaker to start the week. The dollar was broadly steady on Monday as a soft U.S. jobs report boosted wagers that the Federal Reserve may still cut rates twice this year, while the yen was a tad weaker to start the week. On Monday, the yen weakened 0.43% to 153.62 per dollar in early trading, having touched a three-week high of 151.86 on Friday, as the dollar lost additional ground after the jobs data. But with Japanese authorities choosing last week's quiet periods to intervene in the yen market, traders will be on high alert through the day. Markets are now pricing in 45 basis points of cuts this year, with a rate cut in November fully priced in.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of, Fed, Citi Locations: Japan, Britain, Bank of Japan, U.S

☆ Iron ore prices are reflecting 'slightly bearish' economic sentiment in China: SGX Group
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIron ore prices are reflecting 'slightly bearish' economic sentiment in China: SGX GroupWilliam Chin, head of commodities at SGX Group, says the "superpower appeal of iron ore is that it's so ubiquitous."

Persons: William Chin Organizations: SGX Locations: China

☆ Warren Buffett is now 'as bearish as he ever gets,' says Bill Smead
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWarren Buffett is now 'as bearish as he ever gets,' says Bill SmeadBill Smead, chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to share his reactions to Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting over the weekend.

Persons: Warren Buffett, Bill Smead Bill Smead Organizations: Smead Capital Management, Berkshire Hathaway's Locations: Berkshire

☆ Power demand from data centers is expected to boom by 160% into 2030, boosting electricity needs at a rate unseen in a century. These 16 buy-rated stocks are set to benefit, according to Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-05 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

According to an April 28 report from Goldman Sachs, the demand for power from AI data centers is expected to increase by 160% between 2023 and 2030. The report states that the rate of demand growth expected in the next five years has not been witnessed since the beginning of the century. AdvertisementFluence Energy (FLNC) provides clean energy storage that can serve as a power supply backup source if data centers experience outages. NextEra Energy (NEE) is a US energy company already providing power to data centers and demand from its electricity supply is expected to grow. nVent Electric (NVT) is an electrical parts supplier that provides liquid cooling, enclosures, power distribution, and cable management for data centers.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, it's, Kinder Morgan Organizations: Service, Real, Business, Microsoft, Fluence, Google, GE, NextEra Energy, Co, Georgia Power, Xcel Energy, Cameco Corporation, EQT Corp, Caterpillar, Eaton Corporation, MYR Locations: US, Canadian

☆ 'Big downside revisions coming': A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns jobs data will shockingly turn sour in the next 6 months — and says a stock-market AI bubble is starting to unrav
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Over that time, the non-farm payrolls survey showed that the US economy gained 640,000 jobs. In addition to believing jobs data is distorted, Rosenberg has said in recent months that stock prices and valuations are disconnected from the macroeconomic picture. The chart below shows the AI boom — represented by the yellow line — with AI stocks climbing several hundred percent since 2022. Rosenberg ResearchDownturn or no downturnRosenberg has been notoriously bearish over the last couple of years, repeatedly warning of a recession. Pantheon MacroeconomicsAs Rosenberg points out, the longer the Fed keeps rates elevated, the higher the risk of a recession becomes.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's Organizations: Labor Statistics, Business, Rosenberg Research, BLS, Dynamics, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Treasury

☆ Stocks' bull run will end in a bubble or recession, says Bank of America strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks are in a "late secular bull market," BofA's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday research note. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe bull market that's pushed stock prices higher for the past year and a half will probably end in tears, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett warned. Equities are in a "late secular bull market" that likely "ends with [a] bubble and/or recession," the bank's chief investment strategist wrote in a Friday research note seen by Business Insider. Hartnett's bearish stance clashes with the view held by BofA's head of US equity and quantitative strategy, Savita Subramanian, who has predicted that stocks' bull market will last.

Persons: BofA's Michael Hartnett, —, of America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett's, Hartnett, Marko Kolanovic, BofA's, Savita Subramanian, stagflation Organizations: Service, of America's, Business, JPMorgan

☆ China's stock market has staged a big rebound that's poised to push on, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Chinese stock market has rebounded and analysts said the rally looks set to continue. After six months of outflows, foreign investors are gradually putting money to work in China again. AdvertisementChina's stock market may have shaken its label as "uninvestable," with an economic rebound and a rally that could have plenty more room to run. LPL Financial strategist Adam Turnquist wrote this week that long-held bearish calls on China's property and stock market have shaken investor confidence. China's recent reputation as "uninvestable" has been fueled by mounting real estate troubles, a plummeting stock market and dismal consumer demand that's sparked a deflationary spell for the country.

Persons: —, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Ray Dalio Organizations: Service, LPL, Billionaire Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing

A handful of stocks are entering or about to enter the worrisome so-called death cross. A death cross can also be indicative of a forthcoming bear market pattern. Intel Intel disappointed Wall Street's first-quarter expectations last week, when it posted a beat in earnings per share but came up light in revenue. McDonald's McDonald's has also drawn a death cross. CVS Health Unlike the other two names, CVS Health is nearing a death cross.

Persons: Wall Street's, Goldman Sachs, Toshiya Hari, McDonald's, Kevin Caliendo, Caliendo Organizations: Intel, CNBC, Intel Intel, Nvidia, CVS Health, CVS, UBS Locations: Gaza, mgt

☆ Recent breakdown suggests $52,000 is the next stop for bitcoin, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( David Keller | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With bitcoin finally breaking below that support level at $60k this week, we see much further downside potential before the long-term uptrend resumes. You may also notice the breakdown below an ascending 50-day moving average during the second week in April. Going into May, bitcoin is making lower lows and lower highs, and now sits below a downward-sloping 50-day moving average. BTC.CM= 1Y mountain Bitcoin, 1-year Where could we expect potential support if the downtrend continues? The 200-day moving average is right around there, and big round numbers like $50k and $60k have often served as important thresholds for the cryptocurrency.

Persons: Bitcoin, bitcoin, It's, David Keller Organizations: RSI, CMT

☆ We're buying 2 unfairly punished stocks and 1 on an analyst call
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. "That's a win for stocks," Jim Cramer said Thursday. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .

Persons: Jim Cramer, Jerome Powell, should've, Jim, — Stanley Black, Decker, Linde, TJX, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Federal, Fed, Coterra Energy, Apple, UBS, TJX Companies, LIN Locations: China, TJX, HomeGoods

☆ 'Liquid gold': An olive oil shortage is fueling record prices and food insecurity fears
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Extreme hot weather and persistent drought conditions have dealt a severe blow to olive oil production in southern Europe, resulting in a significant surge in prices. Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty ImagesA shortage of olive oil, sometimes referred to as "liquid gold," has driven prices to record highs, fueled a crime surge and pushed the industry into crisis mode. The decline extends a downward trend, after olive oil prices reached an unprecedented peak of 9.2 euros in January. But analysts said that dwindling olive oil reserves would likely keep markets on edge for sudden price spikes over the coming months. Olive oil thefts

Persons: Kyle Holland, Holland, De Rust, Rodger Bosch, Vito Martielli, Martielli, Helena Bennett, Bennett, Xylella, Mintec's Holland Organizations: European Union, Anadolu, Getty, Centre, Market, Mintec, CNBC, Afp, Rabobank, Green Alliance UK, European Environment Agency, Nurphoto Locations: Europe, Anadolu, Spain, Italy, Greece, Spain's Andalusia, Olive Estate, De, Cape Town, Netherlands, Olive, Lecce, Puglia

☆ A contrarian stock market indicator is on the verge of flashing a 'buy' signal, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks are edging closer to a "buy" signal, according to BofA's contrarian market indicator. AdvertisementA contrarian indicator in the stock market is edging closer to a "buy" signal, according to Bank of America. The bank's Sell Side Indicator, a contrarian stock market gauge that flashes a bullish signal when investor sentiment is bearish, and vice versa, is now closer to a "buy" signal than a "sell" signal, strategists said in a note on Wednesday. The lower reading is a bullish sign for stocks, as the indicator is now just 3.3 percentage points away from flashing a "buy" reading, strategists said. Advertisement"The SSI has been a reliable contrarian indicator - in other words, it has been bullish when Wall Street was extremely bearish, and vice versa," the bank wrote.

Persons: —, Stagflation Organizations: Service, Bank of America, SSI

☆ Earnings playbook: Beware of these stocks reporting soon where analysts are slashing their earnings expectations
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

NRG has run up about 40% this year, and is sitting within 2% of the average price target from analysts. This is especially notable given that the average analyst target has risen nearly 75% over the past six months. Match Group also made the list, with the average analyst earnings per share estimate falling more than 16% over the last three months. The average analyst price target for Match has fallen by almost 18% over the past six months given that sell-off. But that average price target still implies upside of around 40%, per FactSet, which underscores the magnitude of its recent slide.

Persons: Gordon, Haskett's Don Bilson, Bilson, FactSet Organizations: CNBC Pro, NRG Energy, NRG Locations: Texas

☆ A tip from the charting pros for navigating this difficult market
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Currently, the S & P 500 just endured four 1% declines in a month for the first time since last October (5). The index's 20-day moving average has undercut the 50-day moving average for the first time since November, and there's a noticeable potential three-month topping pattern in play, as well. The 20-day moving average just crossed above the 50-day moving average, and both lines have started to curl higher. To drive this point home further, the upside-down version of the current S & P 500 looks a lot like… the S & P 500 (right-side-up) from last fall, as the index was coming back from the August-October correction. Here's a picture of the biggest bullish pattern from 2023, which was triggered soon after the 20-day moving average crossed over the 50-day moving average.

Persons: permabears, permabulls, it's, Frank Cappelleri

☆ An options trade that wins if stocks continue to struggle into May
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Nishant Pant | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Note that the last time, the 10-day moving average crossed above the 21-day moving average was back in late October/early November when the markets were just beginning a new bull run. Based on this thesis I want to make a bearish bet on DIA using a trade structure called a bear put spread. The Trade: DIA is a highly liquid ETF and if you look at its option chain, you will notice that it offers $1 wide strikes. DIA YTD mountain SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust YTD Amazon and Apple report earnings this week. These are all significant market moving events and so a solid risk management plan needs to be in place for any trades taken this week.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Dow, Dow Jones, Trade, DIA, Apple

☆ Trump Media is up 92% since launching a crusade against short sellers
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Trump Media's crusade against short-sellers has coincided with a 92% rally in its stock price. Trump Media stock has attracted a lot of short-sellers since it went public last month. AdvertisementShares of Trump Media soared 12% on Monday following the press release and surged an additional 9% on Tuesday. Trump Media has attracted a lot of short-sellers since it went public last month, mostly due to the fact that it generated $58 million in losses on just $4 million in revenue last year. AdvertisementAccording to recent short-interest data, nearly 6 million shares of Trump Media are sold short, or about 8% of the company's share float.

Persons: Trump, —, Donald Trump's, TMTG Organizations: Trump Media, Service, Technology

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