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"I think our biggest problem, at least for the foreseeable future, is high inflation," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNBC. The Fed can raise interest rates to slow inflation, which ultimately makes the cost of borrowing higher for everyday Americans, and that can be just as painful as inflation. Fiscal policy enacted by Congress and power wielded by big business can help fight rising costs. "Congress has much more targeted tools," Claudia Sahm, former Fed economist, told CNBC. Watch the video above to learn more about how corporations and Congress influence inflation, why the Fed doesn't have to take on rising costs alone and what it will take to normalize the U.S. economy.
Moody's Analytics' chief economist Mark Zandi cautions that a recession may be on the horizon. In an interview with CNBC's Andrea Miller, Zandi said a recession did not occur in the first half of this year. Zandi called employment levels the "most important indicator[s]" of a recession. Zandi attributed the confusion about whether the U.S. experienced a recession in the first half of this year to the coronavirus pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Moody's chief economist said that if rising prices don't ebb “the only way to get rid of that persistent stubborn inflation would be to push the economy into a recession.” If there is a recession, Zandi said it "probably won’t happen until the second half of 2023."
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, September 26, 2022. (Click here to subscribe to the new Delivering Alpha newsletter.) The Federal Reserve's most aggressive pace of tightening since the 1980s is making the majority of Wall Street investors believe stocks will be underwater for longer, according to the new CNBC Delivering Alpha investor survey. We polled about 400 chief investment officers, equity strategists, portfolio managers and CNBC contributors who manage money, asking where they stood on the markets for the rest of 2022 and beyond. Fifty-eight percent of respondents said their biggest concern for the markets right now is the Fed being too aggressive.
With the market turmoil raging on, the majority of Wall Street investors are now favoring dividend-paying stocks and value names into the end of the year, according to the new CNBC Delivering Alpha investor survey. About a third of the respondents said they are most likely to buy stocks paying high dividends now. Unlike growth stocks, dividend stocks typically don't offer dramatic price appreciation, but they do provide investors with a stable source of income during times of uncertainty. The three most popular dividend exchange-traded funds are the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF , the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF and the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF . The survey also showed that investors' biggest concern right now is the Fed being too aggressive.
From rising inflation to a red-hot job market and the negative gross domestic product in between, economists are divided on the health of the U.S. economy. This comes at a time when the labor market could hardly appear stronger. In July 2022, there were 11.2 million job openings, revealing a shortage of workers for available positions. "The question is how steeply they will fall, how sharply they will fall, if they go back to 7 million [job openings], the level before the pandemic." Not to mention, the labor market is facing off against the "Great Resignation."
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