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☆ Bank of America says 250 years of history point to turnaround for Treasury bonds
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bank of America expects Treasurys to show positive returns in 2023. Normally a safe haven in time of market tumult, government bonds have gotten crushed in 2022. While the stock market has performed poorly as well , the S & P 500 is down just 18% — considerably better than the bond market returns. But Hartnett said the last time Treasurys fell more than 5% and were negative the following year happened in 1861. Putting it in perspective, that means "250 years of history say US Treasury returns up in 2023," Hartnett wrote.

☆ No U.S.-born Black players expected on World Series rosters
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Associated Press | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +6 min

The Houston Astros celebrate winning the American League Championship Series to advance to the World Series at Yankee Stadium on Oct. 23. In 1979 alone, Willie Stargell and Dave Parker were among 10 Black players on the “We Are Family” Pittsburgh Pirates champions. “It’s been a story that’s been ongoing since the late 1980s, the decline of Black baseball players,” he said. Hall wasn’t on the Phillies’ roster for any of the first three rounds this postseason and isn’t expected to be on the World Series roster. Many Afro Latino players embrace Black identity, yet perhaps not for the same reasons that Black U.S. players do.

☆ A pivot on the Fed's balance sheet reduction plans could be a bullish driver of stocks next year. Here's what to know.
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

No, not quantitative tightening, but rather quantitative tinkering. Don't forget about the Fed's massive balance sheet. changing the pace or even pausing balance sheet reduction) would also be a bullish development. When does the Fed pivot from its rate hike and balance sheet reduction plans? Here's where stock market investors want to be as signs of a powerful rally start to form.

☆ Ukraine needs Marshall Plan approach to rebuild, says German lobby
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BERLIN, Oct 24 (Reuters) - A German lobby group representing companies with interests in eastern Europe has called for a plan to rebuild Ukraine that would mirror the Marshall Plan that helped Europe recover from World War Two, the media group RND reported. The 20-page "Rebuild Ukraine" dossier covering topics from industry to agriculture and energy will be discussed at a Ukraine-Germany business forum in Berlin on Monday, attended by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Schmyhal. In an opinion piece in German business newspaper FAZ on Sunday, Scholz and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made a similar call for a "new Marshall Plan for the 21st century" for Ukraine. The lobby group's dossier called for each European country involved in efforts to rebuild Ukraine to nominate a coordinator to an advisory board to liaise with Ukraine's government. German companies should be given incentives to invest in Ukraine just as the Marshall Plan, which was a U.S. initiative, encouraged investment in West Germany after World War Two, the lobby group's chair Michael Harms said.

☆ What happened to Lara Logan? How the journalist went from respected war correspondent to right-wing radical
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Ashley Collman | Lauren Frias | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

It was around this time that Logan first started overtly expressing her political views, including criticizing a fellow reporter whose profile of a general resulted in that official's firing, New York Magazine reported. In an appearance on CNN's Reliable Sources, Logan speculated that Hastings published comments McChrystal made off the record, and therefore not meant for publishing. But Hastings told CNN during the same show that no ground rules were laid out for the story and he assumed his talks with McChrystal were on the record. "Michael Hastings has never served his country the way Commander McChrystal has," Logan said. Source: New York Magazine

☆ A Fed shift from quantitative tightening to 'tinkering' will emerge as a new bull factor for the stock market in 2023, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A Fed shift away from quantitative tightening could be the next bull factor for stocks in 2023, according to Bank of America. The Fed has started to reduce its near $9 trillion balance sheet at a clip of about $95 billion per month. That's because central banks are "petrified of market consequences of liquidity withdrawal," BofA's investment strategist Michael Hartnett said. Fear of deeper declines materializing in equity and fixed income markets is what could ultimately spark a Fed shift away from quantitative tightening and towards quantitative "tinkering," Hartnett said. Additionally, the European central bank is "considering but not yet committing to even passive quantitative tightening," Hartnett said.

☆ The 60/40 portfolio has been suffering all year, but there are opportunities for long-term investors
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The 60/40 strategy, known as a balanced portfolio, has been hit by rising bond yields — which means falling fixed income prices, as well as a sinking stock market. "The future is brighter for the 60/40," said Omar Aguilar, CEO and chief investment officer of Schwab Asset Management. "The correlation will come back to the normal levels, or the historical levels that you normally have between equities and fixed income," Aguilar said. Schwab's Aguilar advises against chasing yields in fixed income, but instead maintaining a balanced approach between credit and duration. In fixed income, the firm currently has a bond duration of four years, down from its previous seven-year duration.

☆ Investors' cash pile is the largest in 21 years. Here's what that means and why it could signal a rally is on the way in 2023.
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There's a massive amount of cash on the sidelines right now as markets suffer through extreme bouts of volatility and investors remain skittish. Investors' cash pile is the largest since April 2001. Which bring us to the next part of BofA's prediction — that this cash pile will fuel a rally in 2023. I-Bonds have gained immense popularity this year given deeply negative stock market returns and high inflation. Just three weeks away, the elections will still likely have implications for areas of the stock market.

☆ Inflation already peaked, and 2 things in particular will ease Americans' pain over the next 12 months, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The US is past peak inflation, and the cooldown is going to be swift, JPMorgan said Tuesday. Supply-chain healing and the strong dollar will slow price growth and even bring some discounting, the team said. Inflation is forecasted to slow to 6.8% by the end of the year, marking the lowest inflation since last November. The strong dollar will drag import costs lowerThe Fed's rate hikes haven't been very helpful to Americans so far. Import prices aren't just set to "slow significantly," but could even fall by the end of 2023, according to the bank.

☆ Investors are nearing capitulation and setting up for 'another bear rally,' BofA survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

For the third prong of BofA's capitulation test, the policy outlook also is getting closer, with respondents seeing interest rate cuts and lower bond yields ahead. However, investors are much closer to peak-fear capitulation when it comes to the economy and market outlook. A net 72% of survey respondents see global growth declining over the next year, just off the all-time low. However, he also noted that the rising pessimism has still been met with positive flows to equity funds, "suggesting no sign yet of capitulation from retail/institutional investors." The survey indicated the most crowded trade to be long the U.S. dollar, followed by short U.S. stocks and long ESG assets.

☆ Flying to China in Economy Class Will Cost You $5,000
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Dan Strumpf | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

HONG KONG—China is creaking open the door to international travel, but getting into the country comes with a cost—thousands of dollars for a flight. Michael Hart this summer made his first trip from China since the pandemic began. The country maintains some of the world’s toughest pandemic border controls. After visiting family in the U.S. and dropping his son off at college, he paid $3,000 for his return flight, which required a stopover and quarantine stay in Hong Kong before an onward flight to China, where he quarantined again.

☆ Analysis: Market turmoil a boon for trend-following hedge funds
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Oct 17 (Reuters) - Trend-following hedge funds are capitalising on market disruption and geopolitical unrest, with funds such as Graham Capital Management, Aspect Capital, AlphaSimplex and AQR Capital Management all near or over 40% higher for the year. AQR is part of an index of the 10 largest trend-following hedge funds, compiled by Société Générale. The index has risen almost 37% this year, compared with a 3.8% increase in data provider HFR's broader index of hedge fund performance. Hedge funds Man Group, AlphaSimplex and Transtrend have reported trend strategies with performances this year of roughly 15%, 48% and 31% respectively. Funds in the Société Générale CTA index include AQR Capital Management, AlphaSimplex Group, Aspect Capital, Systematica Investments, Graham Capital Management, ISAM LLP, Lynx Asset Management, Man Group's AHL fund, Transtrend and Winton Capital Management.

☆ Wall Street is debating whether the bear market still has legs
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Jason Ma | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

So far, results from the big Wall Street banks have been mixed, with JPMorgan and Citigroup beating but Morgan Stanley falling short of forecasts. He told CNBC on Friday that Thursday's wild reversal wasn't just a bear market rally and could be the start of a new upswing. "We are, in my opinion, coming to the end of this bear market," Scaramucci told CNBC on Friday. Is the stock market poised for a sustainable uptrend or still teasing with bear market rallies? But the stock market isn't out of the woods yet as there could be more pain in the short-term.

☆ Ye’s graveyard of hate: What Kanye West’s agreement to purchase Parler actually means
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Oliver Darcy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN Business —After being locked out of his Twitter and Instagram accounts for anti-semitic posts, Monday’s announcement Kanye West will buy the far-right social platform Parler for an undisclosed amount drove headlines. As of press time, the music icon had just 10,000 followers on the platform — a tiny sliver of the 31 million followers he has amassed on Twitter. (By comparison Twitter, also a small social platform compared to giants like Meta, has more than 237 million daily active users.) In truth, West did not even agree to purchase a “conservative social media platform,” as many headlines in the press would have led readers to believe. What he agreed to purchase is a platform with an embarrassingly small user base comprised of far-right extremists and racists.

☆ A 26-year market vet breaks down why investing legend Jeremy Grantham is correct to compare the current market to the 2000 and 2008 'superbubbles' — and warns stocks will fall another 20%
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There's little reason for optimism in today's market, Lance Roberts laments. Just look at the barrage of headwinds facing stocks right now, the RIA Advisors CIO said in an October 10 commentary. At the start of this year, investing legend and founder of GMO Jeremy Grantham, said stocks were in their fourth superbubble in the last century given that market valuations had veered from historical norms so drastically. On Friday, Roberts told Insider that he agrees with Grantham's assessments, and that he sees the S&P 500 dropping to around 2,900. One of Wall Street's most bullish strategists this year, BMO's Brian Belski, cut his 2022 price target on the S&P 500 again on Friday to 4,200.

☆ Stocks have further to fall after the market's 'bear hug' rally as the Fed isn't ready to pivot from its aggressive rate policy, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Thursday rally in US stocks was a "bear hug" and not yet the start of a sustainable upswing in equities, Bank of America said Friday. The firm said the rally was ignited in a market that's oversold and where investors are holding high levels of cash. The "Big Low" in the market is coming but there hasn't been enough macro/market pain yet, said BofA's chief US strategist Michael Hartnett. Bank of AmericaLooking forward, Hartnett still sees a "Big Low" coming in markets — but he's still waiting for signs of panic from the Fed. He points specifically to the labor market and manufacturing data, which isn't yet weak enough for the Fed to "fold.

☆ U.S. stock market is taking hits, but we’re still doing better than the rest of the world
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-07 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The U.S. stock market may be down 21% this year, but it's far better than most of the rest of the world. The U.S. stock market, which has been outperforming most other markets for a long time, is continuing to increase its market share of global equities. That 66%, Hartnett says, is an all-time high. Hartnett notes that Tesla's market cap, at roughly $750 billion, is now the same as the entire European banking sector. U.S. stock market: king of the hill (by market capitalization) U.S.: 60.3% Japan 5.4% China 4.1% UK 3.9% Canada 3.2% France 2.7% Switzerland 2.5% Australia 1.9% Germany 1.9% Taiwan 1.6% Other 12.2%

☆ MLB roundup: Cardinals, Yankees clinch division titles
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

Yankees right-hander Jameson Taillon (14-5) allowed two runs and seven hits in 7 1/3 innings. Brian Anderson had three hits and scored two runs for the Marlins, and Jacob Stallings hit a two-run single. Casas, who finished 3-for-4, clobbered a two-run homer in the second inning. Hunter Dozier hit a two-run homer for the Royals, who got two hits from Michael A. Taylor. Altuve went 3-for-4 with four runs, and Hensley contributed an RBI single and a two-run homer.

☆ MLB roundup: Guardians clinch AL Central title for first time since 2018
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +13 min

Hunter Dozier capped the Royals' scoring with an RBI single to make it 13-11 following Ryan O'Hearn's two-run double. Astros 6, Orioles 3 (11 innings)Christian Vazquez's two-run single capped a four-run 11th inning and visiting Houston defeated Baltimore. Jeimer Candelario followed Schoop's RBI single with a run-scoring single of his own. The White Sox's loss allowed the Cleveland Guardians to clinch their first American League Central title since 2018. Yadier Molina had an RBI single for the NL Central-leading Cardinals, who dropped consecutive games to the Dodgers after winning Friday.

☆ Bonds are in the midst of the worst crash since 1949, and its set to unravel some of the market's most crowded trades, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-24 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The worst bond market decline since 1949 is set to disrupt the stock market, according to Bank of America. The bank said soaring interest rates will unwind the most crowded trades in the stock market, including long US tech. "Bond crash in recent weeks means highs in credit spreads, lows in stocks are not yet in," BofA said. Bonds are experiencing their worst decline since 1949 as interest rates soar amid a global central bank campaign to fight inflation. "Bond crash in recent weeks means highs in credit spreads, lows in stocks are not yet in," BofA's Michael Hartnett said.

☆ Bond market plunge means the low for stocks is not in yet, Bank of America's Hartnett says
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Pressure in the bond market is also exacting a toll on stocks, which look likely to go still lower from here, according to Bank of America's top strategist. Bank of America's main sentiment indicator is "deeply bearish," Hartnett wrote, though that still hasn't translated into a contrarian buying point. That would translate into respective S & P 500 losses from Thursday's close of 4.2%, 12.2% and 20.2%. While central banks are tightening, fiscal authorities in the U.S., UK and elsewhere are continuing to provide stimulus , offsetting the inflation-fighting benefits of higher rates. "Investors want policy coordination & policy credibility, and until they get it are likely to press shorts," Hartnett said.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead 'Uncharted' sell-off in U.S. stocks has investors wondering when the pain stops
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A specialist trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidNEW YORK, Sept 23 (Reuters) - A week of heavy selling has brought U.S. stocks and bonds to fresh bear market lows, with many investors bracing for more pain ahead. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, cut its year-end target for the S&P 500 by 16% to 3,600 points from 4,300 points. Kevin Gordon, senior investment research manager at Charles Schwab, believes there is more downside ahead because central banks are tightening monetary policy into a global economy that already appears to be weakening. A recession would likely push the S&P 500 to trade between 3,000 and 3,500 in 2023, Jolly said.

☆ Hedge funds ramp up market bets as volatility brings the asset class back into favor
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on September 21, 2022 in New York City. The extreme market volatility is not causing hedge funds to back down. In other words, they are putting money to work in a big way to capitalize on this market volatility for clients, likely mostly from the short side. This speaks to hedge fund strategies," said Mark Haefele, global wealth management CIO at UBS. "Hedge funds have been a rare bright spot this year, with some strategies, like macro, performing particularly well."

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Investors wonder when vicious sell-off in U.S. stocks will end
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 is down more than 22% this year. If the S&P 500 closes below the mid-June low in the days ahead, that may prompt another wave of aggressive selling, Stovall said. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, cut its year-end target for the S&P 500 by 16% to 3,600 points from 4,300 points. "The increased probability of breaking the June S&P 500 price low may be what it takes to invoke even deeper fear. A recession would likely push the S&P 500 to trade between 3,000 and 3,500 in 2023, Jolly said.

☆ MLB roundup: Padres send Cards to third straight shutout loss
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

St. Louis took a third consecutive shutout loss for the first time since the final three games of the 2015 season. San Diego logged its fifth straight win -- and third shutout victory in four games. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterCardinals starter Miles Mikolas (11-13) gave up one unearned run on three hits in six innings. Kyle Farmer snapped an 0-for-18 skid with a bloop two-run single in Cincinnati's three-run fifth that made a winner of starter Chase Anderson (2-3). Leody Taveras provided some insurance with a two-run single in the eighth inning, and the Rangers bounced back after losing the series opener on Tuesday.

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