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☆ Dollar buoyant as robust U.S. data keep Fed hawks in control
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"For the week ahead, the dollar can track higher given the recent run of economic data which supports the narrative of higher-for-longer interest rates," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). Hawkish comments from Fed officials have also underpinned the U.S. dollar, as they signalled that interest rates will need to go higher in order to successfully quash inflation. The kiwi slipped 0.17% to $0.6232, with eyes on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) interest rate decision on Wednesday. The RBNZ is expected to scale down its tightening campaign only slightly, with a half-point interest rate hike to 4.75%. "With inflation so high ... not staying the course could mean even higher interest rates are required down the track," said analysts at ANZ.

☆ Dollar climbs on higher rate expectations, Aussie slides on jobs shock
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Overall, some weakness indicated by the report ... probably caused markets to pare back some of the interest rate rises pencilled in for the RBA rate hikes." Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in January after two straight monthly declines, driven by purchases of motor vehicles and other goods, the U.S. Commerce Department said on Wednesday. There's very strong labour market data coming through, and the consumers are well supported," said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank. The retail sales data came just a day after U.S. figures showed inflation slowing but still sticky. This added to signs that further hefty BoE interest rate hikes are unlikely.

☆ Dollar finds friends after sticky U.S. inflation readout
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Feb 15 (Reuters) - The dollar found some support on Wednesday after stubbornly high U.S. inflation suggested interest rates are going to remain high for longer than investors had expected. The U.S. dollar climbed to a six-week high of 133.30 yen and sat not far below that at 132.73 early in the Asia session. "Inflation remains too high," Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso said. There is not much good news for (the Fed) that is looking for inflation to head down much further towards its 2% target." Federal Reserve officials said the U.S. central bank will need to keep gradually raising interest rates to beat inflation.

☆ National Australia Bank cash profit jumps on loan growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Sameer Manekar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Q1 cash profit up 19%, beats estimatesLoan growth, high interest rates boost profitNet interest margin rises 12 bpsFeb 16 (Reuters) - National Australia Bank (NAB.AX) said on Thursday its first-quarter cash profit jumped 19%, helped by a rise in lending deposits for the country's second-largest bank. "The higher interest rate environment, resulting from central bank actions to curb inflation, has benefited our revenue this period," Chief Executive Officer Ross McEwan said. However, speaking of higher interest rates, McEwan said it was "also causing economic growth and house prices to soften, and loan repayments to increase". The country's second-largest lender posted cash earnings of A$2.15 billion ($1.48 billion) for the quarter ended Dec. 31, compared with A$1.80 billion a year ago. Analysts had expected cash earnings of $2.01 billion, according to Visible Alpha consensus.

☆ Dollar eases as inflation in focus, BOJ governor nomination awaited
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six major rivals, eased 0.019% to 103.17, having slipped 0.34% overnight. NEW BOJ GOVInvestors are also awaiting the formal nomination for the next Bank of Japan governor. Sources told Reuters that Japan's government was likely to appoint academic Kazuo Ueda as the next BOJ governor. Ueda, a former BOJ policy board member and an academic at Kyoritsu Women's University, is considered an expert on monetary policy but had not even been seen as a dark horse candidate for the top job. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.23% to 132.12 per dollar, having slipped 0.7% in the previous session.

Australia's biggest lender said loan impairment expenses increased by A$586 million ($409 million) and business credit growth slowed, reflecting strong inflationary pressures, rising interest rates and a decline in property prices. "We expect business credit growth to moderate and global economic growth to slow during 2023," said Chief Executive Officer Matt Comyn. "We are conscious that many of our customers are feeling significant strain from rising interest rates, alongside the rising costs of electricity, groceries and other household items,” Comyn said in an analyst and investor briefing. Higher interest rates are yet to hit many CBA mortgage customers as many cheaply priced fixed rate loans are expected to come off by the end of the year. The bank also announced it would buy back additional shares worth A$1 billion, on top of a A$2 billion share buy-back announced last February.

☆ Dollar pulls back as Powell sticks to usual Fed playbook
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar struggled to recover its losses in Asia trade on Wednesday, after slipping in the previous session as Powell spoke. Similarly, the euro was last 0.04% higher at $1.0732, after falling to $1.06695 in the previous session, its lowest since Jan. 9. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index steadied at 103.31, after slipping 0.3% in the previous session. Futures pricing shows that markets are expecting the Fed funds rate to peak just above 5.1% by June. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen rose 0.16% to 130.88 per dollar, after surging 1.2% in the previous session.

☆ Australia's CBA simplifies financial reporting after sale of wealth management unit
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Feb 6 (Reuters) - Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX) said on Monday it will simplify its financial reporting in upcoming half-year fiscal results to reflect the sale of its wealth management business last year. The country's top lender will now consolidate its other banking income, funds management income and insurance income into other operating income within its financial statements to reflect the divestment. The change has been applied retrospectively, resulting in a reduction of A$109 million ($75.12 million) in operating expenses for half-year ended June 2022, and reduction of A$98 million in other operating income for half-year ended December 2021. CBA will announce its first-half results for fiscal 2023 on February 15, 2023. ($1 = 1.4510 Australian dollars)Reporting by Sameer Manekar in Bengaluru; editing by Diane CraftOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar climbs as central banks see inflation risks unwind
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Elsewhere, the greenback broadly advanced on the back of its Atlantic counterparts' decline, reversing its losses earlier in the week. On Thursday, the ECB and BoE each raised interest rates by 50 basis points as expected, with the latter signalling the tide was turning in its battle against high inflation. The comments from policymakers following a slew of central bank meetings this week have markets seizing on signs that interest rates could be close to peaking in most major economies. "We're starting to see central banks converging to a pattern now ... the major central banks are definitely approaching the end of their tightening cycles," said CBA's Kong. An imminent peak in U.S. rates has provided some relief for the Japanese yen , which last year crumbled under pressure from rising interest rate differentials against Japan's low interest rate environment.

☆ Dollar slips ahead of Fed rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Feb 1 (Reuters) - The dollar weakened slightly against the euro ahead of Wednesday's eagerly awaited Federal Reserve policy decision, with investors hoping the U.S. central bank will signal an end to interest rate tightening cycle. After a series of jumbo rate increases in 2022 to tame inflation, the market expects the Fed benchmark interest rate to be raised by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.75%. That would be the smallest increase since the central bank began raising rates 10 months ago. Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said: "Recent progress on inflation has encouraged market participants to expect the Fed to quickly pivot from interest rate hikes to interest rate cuts." EURO ZONE INFLATIONInvestors said that euro zone inflation data is unlikely to affect the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary decision on Thursday.

☆ Currencies take a breather as investors await Fed rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Feb 1 (Reuters) - The dollar was broadly flat against major currencies on Wednesday ahead of an eagerly-awaited Federal Reserve policy decision that investors hope will signal the end of the U.S. central bank's interest rate hiking cycle. "Recent progress on inflation has encouraged market participants to expect the Fed to quickly pivot from interest rate hikes to interest rate cuts," said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Since signs of labour market loosening were limited, the Fed would likely pair a smaller rate hike this week with hawkish communication, she said. The Fed raised interest rates by 50 bps in December after four successive 75 bps hikes. It said then that interest rates might need to be higher for longer to tame inflation.

☆ Dollar pauses ahead of Fed rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six major peers, fell 0.029% to 102.060. "Recent progress on inflation has encouraged market participants to expect the Fed to quickly pivot from interest rate hikes to interest rate cuts," said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Since signs of labor market loosening were limited, the Fed would likely pair a smaller rate hike this week with hawkish communication, she said. The Fed increased interest rates by 50 basis points in December after four successive 75 bps rate hikes. It said then that interest rates might need to be higher for longer to tame inflation.

☆ Dollar subdued as growth concerns mount, yen retreats
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, rose 0.069% to 102.090, not far off the seven-month low of 101.51 it touched on Wednesday. The index is down 1.3% so far this year after sinking 7.7% in the last three months of 2022 as investors bet that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its interest rate hikes. With little economic data scheduled on Friday, Kong said currency market moves will hinge on overall risk sentiment, with major currencies likely to trade in narrow ranges. ING economists said the intense scrutiny of the U.S. growth story means that the dollar remains vulnerable to data releases as markets keep scaling back Fed rate expectations. The Australian dollar rose 0.14% versus the U.S. currency to $0.692.

☆ Dollar rises on safe haven bids; yen regains footing
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

FILE PHOTO: A U.S. hundred dollar bill and Japanese 10,000 yen notes are seen in this photo illustration in Tokyo, February 28, 2013. The fresh wave of risk aversion - compounded by news of job cuts by tech giants Microsoft and Amazon - also kept the dollar in bid. The euro was last 0.39% lower at 138.58 yen, while sterling fell 0.23% to 158.27 yen, as markets continued to test the resolve of the BOJ’s ultra-dovish stance. “While there’s still high expectations for a policy shift ... I think that will keep the yen pretty elevated in the near term.”Elsewhere, the kiwi fell 0.31% to $0.6425.

☆ Dollar steady, yen slips as traders brace for BOJ policy decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar steadied on Wednesday, while the yen slipped as investors eagerly awaited the Bank of Japan's policy decision, which could set the stage for Tokyo to end its ultra-easy monetary policy. Since then, speculation has swirled that the BOJ was likely to tweak its yield curve control (YCC) policy further. The Japanese yen weakened 0.56% versus the greenback at 128.83 per dollar on Wednesday, easing off the seven month high of 127.25 it touched on Monday. The dollar index , which measures the safe-haven dollar against six peers, was flat at 102.400. The Australian dollar fell 0.04% at $0.698, while the kiwi rose 0.03% versus the U.S. currency at $0.643.

☆ Dollar wobbles as U.S. inflation fuels hopes of slower Fed rate path
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, rose 0.059% to 102.220 but was languishing around its lowest level since June. Traders of futures tied to the Fed's policy rate bet heavily on a downshift to quarter-percentage-point rises starting at the Jan. 31 to Feb. 1 meeting and a pause just below 5%, with interest rate cuts priced in for later in the year. Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the Fed would likely take comfort in the inflation report and the U.S. dollar would continue to ease. Meanwhile, the yen strengthened 0.12% to 129.10 per dollar, having touched a fresh seven-month high of 128.65 per dollar earlier in the session. The Australian dollar fell 0.11% to $0.696, while the kiwi fell 0.34% to $0.637.

☆ Yen jumps, dollar in retreat ahead of U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The yen last bought 131.50 per dollar. "The report is likely to add to the (yen) optimism," said Saktiandi Supaat, regional head of FX research and strategy at Maybank. Elsewhere, the dollar was adrift ahead of the closely watched U.S. inflation data, which could provide more clarity on how much inflation in the world's largest economy has moderated and on the Federal Reserve's rate-hike path. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.07% to 103.05, not far off its seven-month low of 102.93 hit earlier in the week. Data released on Thursday showed that Australia's trade surplus unexpectedly widened in November and came in well above forecasts.

☆ Yen jumps; dollar tentative ahead of U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The yen last bought 131.92 per dollar. "The report is likely to add on to the (yen) optimism," said Saktiandi Supaat, regional head of FX research and strategy at Maybank. Elsewhere, the dollar stood cautiously steady ahead of the closely watched U.S. inflation data out later on Thursday, which will provide more clarity on how much inflation in the world's largest economy has tamed and on the Federal Reserve's rate-hike path. Australian inflation data released on Wednesday showed that annual inflation re-accelerated to 7.3% in November, after a surprise dip to 6.9% in October, underscoring the challenge facing the Reserve Bank of Australia as it tries to cool the economy. The Chinese offshore yuan rose to a five-month top of 6.7545 per dollar on Thursday.

☆ Asian shares subdued, dollar steady, focus on U.S. CPI data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Asian equities edged higher on Wednesday, while the dollar steadied as investors braced for U.S. inflation data that will influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said heightened economic uncertainties might encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to 5%. In the foreign exchange market, the Australian dollar was 0.3% higher after data showed the annual pace of inflation had increased to 7.3% in November. The dollar index , which measures the dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.058% to 103.31, hovering close to seven-month low. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was down 1.7 basis points at 4.241%.

☆ Dollar stands firm while traders await CPI
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar was steady elsewhere, loitering just above a seven-month low on the euro at $1.0737 in the lead-up to U.S. inflation data due on Thursday. The dollar was steady at 132.23 Japanese yen and $1.2161 per British pound . U.S. government bond yields, which have been attracting investors to the dollar, fell overnight and upbeat sentiment in equities lifted stockmarkets. "Another downward surprise to the core CPI would cement the deceleration trend," Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso said. The Singapore dollar has scaled 19-month highs this week and the Thai baht nine-month tops in anticipation of tourism picking up as China's borders open.

☆ Dollar solidly bid on Fed view, economic resilience; yen eyes weekly gain
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Sterling was just a touch higher at $1.2038 having slumped to a three-week low of $1.1993 overnight. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased less than expected last week, pointing to a still-tight labour market, data released on Thursday showed. BOJ SURPRISEThe yen was marginally lower at 132.39 per dollar on Friday, but was on track for its third largest weekly gain this year of more than 3%. "Japan's inflation figures will be closely scrutinised from here on," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Elsewhere in Asia, the Chinese offshore yuan rose slightly to 7.0038 per dollar.

The BOJ decided to change its "yield curve control" policy on Tuesday even as it kept broad policy settings unchanged. The surge was a sign that traders expect the BOJ to further tighten monetary policy in coming meetings, said Derek Halpenny, head of research at Japanese bank MUFG. The BOJ's move marked a small step away from the central bank's ultra-loose monetary policy. Traders are still digesting the BOJ's policy tweak, said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "The market has interpreted the decision as step towards an eventual pivot from the current ultra-dovish monetary policy," she said.

☆ Yen holds on to gains as traders digest BOJ surprise policy tweak
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The currency market is still digesting the BOJ's policy tweak, said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The BOJ decision comes as investors fret about a slowing world economy, sky-high inflation and other central banks' moves to lift interest rates. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who will step down in April, stressed the adjustment was not a prelude to a bigger tweak to the yield curve control policy and an eventual exit from ultra-easy monetary policy. The next policy decision the BOJ takes will likely be a major one, such as changing long-/short-term policy rate targets or terminating yield curve control altogether, according to Goldman Sachs analysts. The Antipodean currencies were wobbly after suffering big losses against the yen as rising Japanese yields threatened to kill flows into usually crowded carry trades.

☆ Yen eases as traders digest BOJ surprise policy tweak
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

In a surprise move, the BOJ on Tuesday decided to let long-term yields move 50 basis points either side of its 0% target, wider than the 25 basis point band previously, even as the central bank kept broad policy setting unchanged. The currency market is still digesting BOJ's policy tweak, said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Global investors have been betting on a change in policy from the central bank and will now be increasing their bets on bigger changes. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against yen and five other major currencies, was flat at 103.94. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar rose 0.18% versus the greenback at $0.669, while the kiwi fell 0.13% versus the greenback at $0.634.

☆ Australian economy on edge as fixed-rate mortgage pain looms in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The cost of paying your mortgage is literally going up for everyone by thousands of dollars," said the 31-year-old Lemon. Australia's big four banks - Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX), Westpac (WBC.AX), National Australia Bank (NAB.AX) and ANZ (ANZ.AX) - account for 75% of the country's mortgage market. read moreThe RBA fears 15% of the borrowers on variable rates could see their cash flows turn negative, assuming that interest rates rise to 3.6% in line with market expectations. Buyers' agent Lloyd Edge says some cautious mortgage holders have been selling up before their fixed-rate loans expire. Hundreds of thousands of Australians took advantage of the ultra low rates during the COVID pandemic to enter one of the world's least affordable housing markets.

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