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OTTAWA, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate eased more than expected in December as gas prices came down but core measures remained little changed from the previous month, Statistics Canada said on Tuesday, making another interest rate hike this month likely. Inflation slowed to 6.3% in December from 6.8% in November, a notch lower than the 6.4% median forecast of analysts. Prices fell 0.6% from the previous month, again showing price pressures easing more than analysts' forecast for a 0.5% decline. Most analysts agreed the Bank of Canada would hike rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Jan. 25, when it next meets. Money markets see a 77% chance of a quarter-point hike by the Bank of Canada next week, up from 70% before the data.

Some two-thirds of firms expect a recession over the next 12 months, with 90% of those expecting it to be mild. Several businesses said rising interest rates were slowing household demand and housing market activity. The survey showed that 84% of firms expect inflation to remain above 3% for the next two years, up from 77% in the third quarter. Canada's annual inflation rate eased to 6.8% in November as gasoline prices rose more slowly, still well above the central bank's 2% target, data showed last month. Almost 64% of consumers said they would reduce spending and save more to cope with inflation and rising interest rates.

[1/4] LNG Canada site construction activities are held, in Kitimat, Canada, September 2022. LNG Canada, in which Japan's Mitsubishi Corp (8058.T) owns a 15% stake, is set to be Canada's first liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal. LNG Canada has previously described this approach as only one of the options it was considering. LNG Canada has full environmental permits from both governments to use natural gas turbines for Phase 2, making it unclear what leverage governments have to force electrification. But buyers may pay more for LNG produced with lower emissions, Klein said, noting that some buyers already purchase carbon offsets for LNG cargoes.

☆ Is Canadian inflation on a sustainable path to 2%? Essentials offer clues
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-15 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Canada's consumer price index report for December, due on Tuesday, is expected to show headline inflation cooling to 6.3%, its lowest annual rate since last February, from 6.8% in November. If inflation expectations rise, it could push up wage demands, particularly in a tight labor market, leading to further price pressures. "One eye is on wage growth, which is strong but not too bad at the moment, but then this other idea (which is) on the price inflation for essentials that could keep wage demands high, as it affects inflation expectations." "If inflation slows and wage growth doesn't, then wages become more of a tailwind for inflation going forward. "What we really need to see in December is weaker price growth across the board."

☆ Canada appoints First Nations member to Bank of Canada board
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

OTTAWA, Jan 12 (Reuters) - The Canadian government filled three Bank of Canada board vacancies on Thursday with finance veterans including Ernie Daniels, likely the first First Nations member on the central bank's board, a bank spokesperson said. The Bank of Canada's board selects its governor and provides general oversight of the management and administration of the institution. Daniels and the other two appointees - David Dominy and Shelley Williams - "bring many years of accounting, capital markets, and financial management from across industries and sectors," Canada's finance ministry said in a statement. Daniels, who is from the Salt River First Nation in Canada's Northwest Territories, has over 35 years of senior financial management experience and has been chief executive of First Nations Finance Authority, a financial non-profit, since 2012. "To the best of our knowledge" Daniels is the first board member to hail from a First Nation in the bank's almost 90-year history, a spokesperson said.

☆ Canada, Mexico win auto rules trade dispute with U.S.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The decision is good for Canada and Mexico," said Flavio Volpe, president of Canada's Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association. The decision is "disappointing," said Adam Hodge, a spokesperson for the United States Trade Representative's office, adding that the decision could result in "fewer American jobs". The USTR will now "engage Mexico and Canada on a possible resolution to the dispute," Hodge said. The decision was announced amid a separate USMCA dispute centered on energy that has pitted the United States and Canada against Mexico. The United States said "core part" content should not be rounded up when determining the content of the entire car.

☆ Canada grants record permanent residency permits in 2022
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

OTTAWA, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Canada set an immigration record last year by granting more than 437,000 foreigners permanent residency, the government said on Tuesday, as it ramps up immigration to fight a tight labor market. The government had set a target to welcome 431,645 new permanent residents in 2022, and the immigration ministry said Canada has reached that target to make it the largest annual intake of people in Canadian history. The tally for last year is about 9% higher than 2021, when Canada surpassed the previous record set in 1913, and comes as Canada seeks to bring in 1.45 million new permanent residents by 2025-end. Immigration is a key part of the solution as Canada focuses on addressing an acute labor market shortages, the ministry said. People with permanent residency permits can typically apply for citizenship after five years.

☆ Ecuador's $290 mln Petrolia debt void on handover - gov't, company
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Alexandra Valencia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

QUITO, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Ecuador's $290 million debt to a subsidiary of Canada's New Stratus Energy (NSE.V) will be void once contracts for the operation of two oil production blocks expire on Dec. 31, the government and subsidiary said on Thursday. "The state owed the contractor, under unpaid tariffs, $290 million," the energy ministry said in a statement. Ecuador has paid Petrolia some $60 million in fees over the past two years, company manager Ramiro Paez told Reuters, acknowledging the remaining $290 million debt would be wiped when the contracts ended. The company has not yet presented its arbitration case because it must complete a mediation process first, he added. State oil company Petroecuador will on Jan. 1 take over operation of the blocks, which together produce about 14,000 barrels a day.

October growth slowed compared with September's 0.2% gain, which was an upward revision from a previously reported 0.1% increase, Statistics Canada said. "The real question will be how things shake out during the first half of next year, when aggressive Bank of Canada rate hikes start to more fully work their way through the system," Kavcic said. Canada's annual inflation rate eased to 6.8% in November, but was slightly higher than had been expected because of broad-based price pressures, according to data from earlier this week, leaving the door open for another rate increase in January. The bank has said it will be more data-dependent in setting the policy rate. November's preliminary estimate showing a 0.1% monthly increase in GDP was driven by gains in utilities and wholesale trade, Statscan said.

OTTAWA, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate eased to 6.8% in November as gasoline price rose more slowly, data showed on Wednesday, leaving the door open for another interest rate increase in January. Consumer prices rose 0.1% from October, Statistics Canada said, above analysts' expectations they would be flat. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 5.4% versus a 5.3% gain in October. "Today's data will leave the door open to a 25 basis point rate hike in November," said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group. Gasoline prices rose 13.7% after gaining 17.8% in October, largely driven by price declines in Western Canada, Statscan said.

☆ Direct ChassisLink changes hands in $3.6 billion deal-sources
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The deal marks a win for Apollo, which acquired a majority stake in Charlotte, North Carolina-based Direct ChassisLink and logistics and digital supply chain solutions company Blume Global from EQT in 2019 for around $2.5 billion, including debt. Excluding Blume's remaining value, Apollo made two times the money it invested, according to a person familiar with the matter. Blume separately raised money from outside investors in 2021 at a valuation of $500 million. Direct ChassisLink controls a fleet of over 151,000 marine and 100,000 domestic chassis. Reporting by David Carnevali in New York; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The central bank sets short-term interest rates but longer-term borrowing costs, such as for businesses and some mortgage rates, are determined by the bond market. Canadian bond yields, like U.S. bond yields, have tumbled since October as investors anticipate that the tightening cycle is nearing an end and the central bank is poised to shift to cutting rates next year. Bond yields, along with other measures, such as the strength of the stock market and the currency, help determine financial conditions, or the availability of funding in the economy. Since October, Canada's 5-year yield has tumbled nearly 100 basis points and the Toronto stock market (.GSPTSE) has rallied 11%. "Otherwise, we could be on an inflation and rates roller-coaster for years to come that is biased toward higher average inflation."

☆ Turquoise Hill shareholders approve Rio Tinto's $3.3 bln buyout bid
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Dec 9 (Reuters) - Shareholders of Canada's Turquoise Hill (TRQ.TO) on Friday voted in favour of Rio Tinto's (RIO.L), (RIO.AX) $3.3 billion bid to take it private and gain direct control over a giant Mongolian copper mine. Turquoise Hill said 86.6% voted to approve Rio Tinto acquiring 49% of shares that it does not already own, giving the Anglo-Australian miner a 66% stake in Oyu Tolgoi, the world's largest known copper and gold deposit. The vote clears the way for Rio Tinto to gain more autonomy over Oyu Tolgoi, which is 66% owned by Turquoise Hill and 34% by the Mongolian government, and operated by Rio. Friday's shareholder meeting was repeatedly delayed due to opposition of key minority shareholders of Turquoise Hill, including funds Pentwater Capital and SailingStone Capital. Rio Tinto had agreed to let the two dissenting parties withhold their votes and make claims via an arbitration process, a deal that was subsequently scrapped as it raised regulatory concerns.

Oil companies are facing faltering prices and Canadian firms are also absorbing an unusually punishing discount for their heavy-grade crude. Net debt represents a company's gross debt minus cash and cash-like assets. It faced an existential threat in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic crushed oil prices. Canadian producers also absorb a $29 per barrel discount due to distance from U.S. refineries and lower heavy oil demand. If oil prices dip below $65, companies may tighten spending but opt to reduce capital budgets before shareholder returns, Bushell said.

☆ Morning Bid: Bonds lap up crude, costs and Canada
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The big consensus bet of 2023 is already in full swing - bonds are bid. With year-on-year oil price gains evaporating to zero, that is dragging inflation expectations down in lockstep. The exception was in Hong Kong, which the Hang Seng benchmark (.HSI) has now recouped all this year's underperformance versus world indices and the S&P500. The Hang Seng added another 3% on Thursday as the Hong Kong government loosened its COVID-19 curbs further. The isolation period for patients and contacts will be cut to five days from seven days and requirements for arrivals to Hong Kong to undergo daily tests will similarly be reduced to five days.

☆ Exclusive: Canada's biggest pension plan, CPPI, ends crypto investment pursuit -sources
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Divya Rajagopal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

CPPI declined to comment but said it has made no direct investments in crypto. But CPPI abandoned the pursuit this year and redeployed the team to other areas, the sources said. CPPI's move also comes as two of Canada's largest pension funds have written off their investments after the collapse of crypto exchange FTX and crypto lender Celsius this year. Canadian pension funds' exposure to crypto sector has come under scrutiny following the FTX debacle. While Canadian pension funds are not prohibited from buying cryptocurrencies, they are known for their risk-averse investing strategies to generate steady returns for pensioners.

☆ TSX futures down on recession fears, BoC rate decision in focus
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary BoC rate decision at 10 a.m. ETTrader see a 65.6% chance of a 25 bps hikeDec 07 (Reuters) - Futures tracking Canada's main stock index slipped on Wednesday on mounting recession worries, while investors awaited the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision later in the day. The BoC is expected to hike its benchmark overnight rate to its highest level in 14 years as it seeks to tame high inflation, with the decision expected at 10 a.m. The TSX has recovered 9.7% from its October closing low on hopes that the Federal Reserve and other major central banks would temper their aggressive rate hike stance. Meanwhile, oil prices slipped, pressured by concerns about recession and easing fears that a Western cap on Russian oil prices would significantly curb supply while gold prices were listless against a stronger dollar.

☆ Dealmakers face pressure to clinch M&A quickly in volatile markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Maiya Keidan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

HSBC wrapped up the deal in just eights weeks after saying it was considering selling its Canadian business in early October. From its first contact, RBC, Canada's biggest lender, told HSBC it could close the deal quickly if selected, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters. After the final bids went in around mid-November, RBC said it could turn everything around in a week, the person added. In the United States, deal timelines fell by almost 30% to 66 days this year from last year, where transactions took more than one day to close, the data shows. Deal announcements are one thing but getting all the regulatory approvals to close a deal are another matter altogether.

☆ TSX futures edge up as gold shines, BoC meet in focus
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies BoC rate decision due WednesdayTraders see a 71.5% chance of 25 bps hikeDec 06 (Reuters) - Futures for Canada's resources-heavy main stock index edged up on Tuesday as gold prices rose, while investors await the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision. Gold prices steadied on Tuesday after shedding more than 1% in the last session, helped by a weaker dollar. Commodity prices have a major impact on Toronto stocks, as materials and energy companies combined have a near 31% weight on the main index. The TSX, like its U.S. counterparts has rallied from October lows on hopes that the Federal Reserve and major central banks would dial down their aggressive approach on interest rates. The BoC will be one of the first major central banks to announce the interest rate decision in December, with announcements from the Fed and the European Central Bank to follow next week.

☆ Dollar little changed after previous day's jump; investors look to Fed next week
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Data Monday showing that U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly picked up in November prompted speculation the Fed may lift interest rates more than recently projected. "There was a lot of price action yesterday, and we're just consolidating that," with the big focus on next week's Fed meeting. The euro was flat against the dollar at $1.0492, while the dollar was down 0.1% against the Japanese yen. European Central Bank policymaker Constantinos Herodotou said on Tuesday interest rates will go up again but are now "very near" their neutral level. The dollar was up 0.6% against the Canadian dollar ahead of the Bank of Canada's rate decision Wednesday.

☆ Canada exports rose in October helped by weak dollar
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Ismail Shakil | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Exports rose 1.5%, helped by higher exports of medicinal products as well as gold bars and coins to the United States, Statscan said. "Canada's merchandise trade surplus widened in October, with a weaker Canadian dollar providing a helping hand. When expressed in U.S. dollars, Canadian exports were down 1.3% in October, and imports decreased 2.2%, Statscan said. Exports of farm, fishing and intermediate food products rose 10.2% in October to a record-high C$5.5 billion, helped by canola and wheat. The Canadian dollar was trading at 1.3625 to the greenback, or 73.39 U.S. cents, down 0.3% on the day.

☆ Canada's deep yield curve inversion adds to BoC rate hike dilemma
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-04 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Canada's central bank says that the economy needs to slow from overheated levels in order to ease inflation. The yield on the Canadian 10-year government bond has fallen nearly 100 basis points below the 2-year yield, marking the biggest inversion of Canada's yield curve in Refinitiv data going back to 1994 and deeper than the U.S. Treasury yield curve inversion. The depth of Canada's curve inversion is signaling a "bad recession" not a mild one, said David Rosenberg, chief economist & strategist at Rosenberg Research. Still, 3-month measures of underlying inflation that are closely watched by the BoC - CPI-median and CPI-trim - show price pressures easing. "The yield curve would not invert to this extent unless investors also believed that inflation will drop back down toward the Bank's target," said Brown.

The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3455 to the greenback, or 74.32 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3421 to 1.3520. For the week, it was on track to decline 0.6%. Canada added 10,100 jobs in November, broadly in line with the forecast gain of 5,000, while the jobless rate fell to 5.1%, Statistics Canada said. The U.S. dollar rallied against a basket of major currencies and equity markets globally fell. Canadian government bond yields climbed across the curve, tracking the move in U.S. Treasuries.

☆ C$ dips against greenback; falls harder vs other G10 currencies
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

It was the only G10 currency to lose ground against the U.S. dollar . The greenback fell 1.1% against a basket of major currencies. "In a weak U.S. dollar environment, the Canadian dollar often lags," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC. Chances that the BoC would hike by 50 basis points rather than 25 basis points at a policy decision next Wednesday have fallen to roughly 10% from 30% since Powell's comments, money market data showed. The Canadian 10-year yield fell 9.3 basis points to 2.842%, its lowest level since Aug. 18.

☆ National Bank of Canada quarterly profit falls on higher expenses, provisions
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 30 (Reuters) - National Bank of Canada (NA.TO) posted a lower fourth-quarter profit on Wednesday, as the Canadian lender set aside higher provisions in the face of an economic downturn. The company recorded $87 million in provisions for the three months ended Oct 31, compared to $41 million a year ago. The Canadian lender's personal and commercial unit saw net income jump 13% on strong lending as the central bank pumps up interest rates to combat decades-high inflation. The Canadian lender joined Bank of Nova Scotia in reporting a lower profit as fees from advisory and deals tank due to escalating worries of an economic downturn. ($1 = 1.3526 Canadian dollars)Reporting by Mehnaz Yasmin in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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