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The ETF flowdown: 2023 is back on pace to be a solid year
  + stars: | 2023-12-15 | by ( Kirsten Chang | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
watch nowDespite a sluggish start to the year, a record number of product launches and a red-hot November have put 2023 back on pace to be a solid year for ETFs. Roughly $1 trillion has gone into money market funds this year, but some are questioning whether the solid year-end stock rally will attract some of those flows back into equities. "You saw that enormous cash pileup going into money markets, and ETF flows were muted. "We talked about the money market funds," he said. He pointed to strong inflows into high-yield ETFs such as the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) and SPDR Bloomberg Short Term High Yield Bond ETF (SJNK) — along with dividend ETFs such as the Pacer U.S. Cash Cows 100 ETF (COWZ).
Persons: Ben Slavin, BNY Mellon, CNBC's, Andrew McOrmond, McOrmond, it'll, SPDR, Slavin Organizations: BNY, WallachBeth, SPDR Bloomberg, Pacer, Cash, Tech, RSP Locations: outflows
Five companies (Apple , Microsoft , Amazon , Nvidia and Alphabet ) make up about 25% of the S&P 500. Standard & Poor's estimates that nearly $13 trillion is directly or indirectly indexed to the S&P 500. The three largest ETFs (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust , iShares Core S&P 500 ETF , and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF ) are all directly indexed to the S&P 500 and collectively have nearly $1.2 trillion in assets under management. S&P 500: Apple and others will be for sale. In addition, three companies are being added to the S&P 500: Uber , Jabil , and Builders FirstSource .
Persons: It's, JD.com, Phil Mackintosh, Robert Jankiewicz Organizations: Nasdaq, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Broadcom, Trust, Vanguard, Comcast, Exxon Mobil, Visa, Marathon Petroleum, P Global, Builders, Alaska Air, SolarEdge Technologies, CDW Corporation, Cola Europacific Partners, Roper Technologies, eBay, EBAY, Enphase Energy, Video Communications, Pfizer, Seagen, Technology, CNBC
JPMorgan predicts European stock markets will struggle to produce positive returns next year as investors digest slowing economic growth across the continent. The forecast for 2024 comes from the same team of strategists that have, so far, accurately called the MSCI Eurozone's performance this year. They expected the index to rise 9.1% to close at 256 points by the end of December 2023 on a local currency basis. "We look for flat European [earnings per share] growth in 2024, based on no recession materializing," said JPMorgan strategists led by Mislav Matejka in a note to clients on Nov. 29. The JPMorgan strategists believe stocks will sink in the first half of 2024 as markets factor in potential downward adjustments to earnings estimates.
Persons: Mislav Matejka, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, FTSE
Expect to work a little harder for those fixed income returns in the new year. As a result, it may be time to start unwinding those big cash positions and adopt a longer-term mentality for fixed income investments. A runup in bond yields is accompanied by a decline in prices, and the two move inversely to one another. The sector "remains well positioned to maintain its high credit quality, driven by solid state credit quality and strong state financial support, despite soft enrollment trends," analyst Kathleen McNamara wrote last week. Consider dollar cost averaging into those longer-dated positions, incrementally building up exposure to intermediate duration bonds.
Persons: Jerome Powell, it's, Kathy Jones, Shannon Saccocia, Jones, Nicholos Venditti, Kathleen McNamara, Schwab's Jones, Barry McAlinden, Michael Bloom Organizations: Schwab Center, Financial Research, Bond, SEC, Muni Bond ETF, Allspring Global Investments, UBS
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 17, 2023. And should they, given the many risks that come with such a fast-paced strategy? Bank of Montreal launched the Max SPX 500 4x leveraged ETNs, which will be the highest leveraged exchange traded product in the U.S., according to CFRA. The notes are based on the S&P 500 Total Return Index and will trade under the ticker "XXXX" beginning on Tuesday. Investors have shown a preference for the higher leveraged funds, like the popular Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares (SOXL) ETF .
Persons: Max, iShares —, Aniket Ullal Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Bank of Montreal, Nvidia, SEC, Investors, Daily Semiconductor Locations: New York City, U.S
Plug Power shares have slipped 63% this year, Enphase Energy shares have plunged 60%, SolarEdge Technologies shares have declined 71% and NextEra Energy shares have slid 29%. Yet clean energy stocks haven’t recovered, despite hopes that an influx of US government spending on climate solutions would help revive the sector. The culprit behind clean energy stocks’ poor returns? Krull sees the current rut in clean energy stocks as a buying opportunity for investors. Clean energy stocks also aren’t the only way investors are putting their cash to work with a sustainability mindset.
Persons: Biden, Todd Jones, Jean Rosenbaum, Andrew Poreda, That’s, Peter Krull, Krull, ” Krull Organizations: New, New York CNN, Clean Energy, Enphase Energy, SolarEdge Technologies, NextEra Energy, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Gratus Capital, Sage Advisory, Earth Equity Advisors, Nvidia Locations: New York, Paris
Zero-day commodity options have now entered the ETF space
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Natalie Zhang | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Investors can now trade commodities and a Treasury with a popular short-term options strategy. The Nasdaq recently launched five zero-day options-based exchange-traded funds: United States Oil Fund (USO) , United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) , SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) , iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) . It has taken the options market by storm. The surge in activity surrounding zero-day options has some analysts worried about a negative impact on the market. "I don't think the tools themselves are inherently breaking the market," Nadig said.
Persons: Dave Nadig, CNBC's, Nadig, it's Organizations: Treasury, Nasdaq, United States Oil Fund, United States Natural Gas Fund, Bond ETF Locations: United
Investors who held a balanced portfolio and just let it ride through November are about to be handsomely rewarded: The 60/40 portfolio is cruising to its best month in three years. That's just short of the 7.5% advance in November 2020, when progress on Covid vaccines heralded an economic reopening. AOR YTD line YTD performance for iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF (AOR) First, bond yields cooled substantially in November. Bond yields decline when bond prices rise, so cooling rates have lifted prices for fixed income allocations. A recovery in both asset classes has since lifted the AOR to a total return of 10.8% for 2023, showing that staying the course can pay off.
Persons: That's, Henry Allen, they've, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Fed, ECB Locations: Wednesday's
"If there is a regime shift, then what has worked could be quite different from what does work," McLennan said. That means the growth stocks that dominated for years may come back to earth in the mid-2020s. He also recommends that investors diversify away from growth stocks that thrived under low rates and instead broaden out to value-oriented names. Valuations explain 80% of a stock's returns over a decade, according to Bank of America. Smead sees energy in stocks in Canada also outperforming in the coming decade, as well as European banks.
Persons: , Peter Bates, Rowe Price, Damanick Dantes, We're, Dantes, you've, He's, Matt McLennan, McLennan, Kimball Brooker, Morningstar, Nicola Stafford, Stafford, it's, Molina, Bates, Russell, Cole Smead, that's, Phillip Colmar, Colmar, Bob Doll, Doll, Smead, Michael Sheldon, Sheldon, who's, there's, Chris Chen, Chen, Roth Organizations: Service, Business, Global, International, McLennan, First Eagle Global Fund, Eagle Investments, Goldman, Asset Management, Stock, Molina Healthcare, Vanguard Value, Healthcare, Bank of America, Comerica Wealth Management, MRB Partners, Canadian, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Energy, P Bank ETF, RDM Financial, Social Security, Social, Insight Financial, Trust, IRA Locations: Canada, Colmar, United States, Canadian, Europe, Treasuries
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Signs the U.S. stock market rally is broadening from the so-called Magnificent Seven of mega-cap growth and technology companies is bolstering investor hopes for a rally through year-end. In one encouraging sign, about 55% of the S&P 500 were trading above their 200-day moving averages as of Monday. Among other signs, the equal-weight S&P 500 (.SPXEW) -- a proxy for the average stock in the index -- rose 3.24% last week. The equal-weight S&P 500 is trading at a 5% discount to its 10-year average forward price-to-earnings ratio, according to Edward Jones. Still, there are reasons to think that the market rally is not on the verge of a sustained broadening.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Adam Turnquist, Meta, Russell, Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones, ” Mahajan, Steve Sosnick, Jason Draho, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Megan Davies, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, LPL, Microsoft, Nasdaq, Interactive Brokers, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Treasuries
As of Wednesday's market close, though, the 10-year note fell to 4.408%, while the 100 largest taxable money market funds tracked by Crane Data have an average yield of 5.20%. In addition, nearly $1.2 trillion has flowed into money market funds this year through Nov. 15, compared to $264 billion into bond funds and $43 billion in U.S. equity funds, according to Goldman Sachs. In the meantime, Bartolini said clients willing to take on more risk should look to shorter-duration bond funds. The iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) that tracks shorter-duration notes has gained 0.22% this year as of Wednesday's close. The iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT) , which has exposure to Treasurys ranging between 1 and 30 years in duration, was down 1.85% during the same period.
Persons: Dan Egan, CNBC's, Goldman Sachs, Matt Bartolini, Bartolini, Egan, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Behavioral Finance, Treasury, Crane Data, SPDR, SPDR Americas Research, Street Global Advisors, Treasury Bond ETF Locations: SPDR Americas, U.S
After being on the market for more than a decade, defined maturity bond funds are finally attracting attention. Traditional open end, bond mutual funds or bond ETFs, on the other hand, have no maturity date. One big advantage over owning individual bonds, however, is that defined maturity ETFs are easy to purchase on the stock exchange. How they work Each defined maturity bond fund holds securities in the same sector that come due in the calendar year chosen for the fund. Callable bonds are simply those that can be redeemed or paid off by the issuer prior to the bonds' maturity date, according to the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Persons: Charles Rotblut, Bonds, Sarajat Samant, Karen Veraa, BlackRock's, , Veraa, IBonds, Invesco, Treasury iBond, Jason Bloom, Invesco's Bloom, haven't, I'm, BlackRock's Veraa, Morningstar's, Samant, AAII's Organizations: Investors, American Association of, Treasury, BlackRock, Securities and Exchange Commission, Invesco Locations: BlackRock's iShares, U.S
Investors who hope to generate portfolio income while recession fears ramp higher can seek some safety in municipal bonds. Wells Fargo Investment Institute recently issued its fixed income guidance for 2024, forecasting "higher for longer" rates across the yield curve as the Federal Reserve remains vigilant to bring down inflation. Municipal bonds offer a combination of characteristics that appeal to investors: General obligation bonds are backed by the revenue of the municipality issuing them. "Going into a slowdown, you anticipate rates to fall," said Brian Rehling, head of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. The top marginal income tax rate is 13.3% in California and well over 10% in New York and New Jersey.
Persons: Brian Rehling, Jennifer Johnston, Franklin Templeton, Johnston Organizations: Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Federal Reserve, Fargo Investment Institute, AAA, Muni Bond ETF, Vanguard, Bond, Fed, New York Life Investments, Investors, York State, Metropolitan Transportation Authority Locations: Wells Fargo, Fargo, New, California, New York, New Jersey, York
Meme stocks have been on the rise recently as November's market rally brings a wave of bullishness. "The upshot: the reemergence of meme stocks shows investors' animal spirits are starting to run hot again," DataTrek said. AdvertisementMEME, BOTZ, and IWO have seen gains of 10.8%, 6.6%, and 5.9%, respectively, while the S&P 500 has gained 3.1% in that stretch. AdvertisementStill, the recent outperformance for funds with exposure to meme stocks reflect "generally bullish market conditions," Colas and Rabe maintained. DataTrek also noted on Tuesday that S&P 500 sector correlations suggests the November stock rally should continue through the end of the year.
Persons: , Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, iShares Russell, DataTrek, Colas, Rabe Organizations: Service, Robotics, Treasury, IWO, GameStop, AMC
Analysts attended earnings calls in the third quarter armed with questions for healthcare and consumer companies about the potential effect on their sales from the growing popularity of these drugs, known as GLP-1 agonists. A Reuters analysis of earnings transcripts for the third quarter showed "GLP-1" or alternatives like "obesity" or "weight-loss medications" were mentioned 256 times across 29 U.S. and European healthcare and consumer companies. That's more than double the mentions for the second quarter, when those phrases came up 127 times. While some consumer companies have talked about factors such as fewer calories being consumed, "these kind of large extrapolations" seem to be a bit of a stretch, said BMO Capital analyst Evan Seigerman. For big pharma manufacturers like Pfizer (PFE.N) and Amgen (AMGN.O), analyst questions were aimed at their obesity drug candidates.
Persons: Lilly, George Frey, Jeff Jonas, it's, Eli Lilly's, John Furner, Mondelez, Eli Lilly, Evan Seigerman, LVMH, Rajesh Kumar, Jonas, Bhanvi Satija, Savyata Mishra, Arpan Varghese, David Gaffen, Shounak Organizations: Novo Nordisk, Pharmacy, REUTERS, Gabelli, Novo, Walmart, Walmart U.S, Hershey, Truist Securities, Krispy, BMO Capital, Danish, pharma, Pfizer, Devices, HSBC, Thomson Locations: Provo , Utah, U.S, United States, Novo, Bengaluru
A street sign for Wall Street is seen in the financial district in New York, U.S., November 8, 2021. The Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF has seen net inflows of more than $100 million so far this month, according to Lipper data, adding to the nearly $180 million it raked in October. Peers like the $5.5 billion iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF and $1.78 billion SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF have posted net inflows of $178.4 million and $163.6 million, respectively, since October. U.S. President Joe Biden has asked Congress to provide $106 billion in supplemental funding, with $61.4 billion for Ukraine and $14.3 billion for Israel. The U.S. Congress has approved $113 billion for Ukraine in 21 months since the start of the war.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Peers, Ashish Shah, Joe Biden, Michael Ashley Schulman, Bansari Mayur, Shweta Agarwal Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF, US Aerospace & Defense, P Aerospace & Defense ETF, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Israel, U.S, Congress, Running, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Europe, Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, Bengaluru
BlackRock files for spot ethereum ETF to further crypto push
  + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
BlackRock is proposing to convert the trust to a "spot" ETF, which means it will own ether instead of futures products tied to the crypto token. While futures-based crypto ETFs have previously been approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the regulator has long contended that the spot crypto market is prone to fraud and manipulation. BlackRock dipped its toes in the crypto space with its filing for a spot bitcoin ETF in June. Coinbase Custody, a unit of crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN.O), will hold the proposed ETF's ether in custody. The company is also the proposed custodian of BlackRock's bitcoin ETF.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Niket, Shinjini Organizations: BlackRock, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, bitcoin, Bengaluru
UBS has highlighted several stock ideas it favors for 2024, as it forecasts massive cuts to interest rates next year. The investment bank expects the U.S. will see slower economic growth and strong disinflation leading to an interest rate cut of 275 basis points . Given the economic outlook, UBS strategists recommend a number of trades to clients for 2024. All the sectors apart from software trade on bigger discounts than normal against their US peers," the UBS strategists said. To reflect that view, UBS strategists said they favored gaining exposure to the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF in 2024.
Persons: Jonathan Pingle, Gerry Fowler, Sean Simonds, KWEB Organizations: UBS, Federal, CNBC, U.S, Investors, China Tech, Internet Technology, CSI China Internet Locations: U.S, China
Cooler-than-expected inflation data could push stocks higher, especially those that benefit the most from a decline in the cost of money. MGM stock has added more than 21% from the start of the year, while Caesars has climbed about 11%. Elsewhere, Solar Battery company SunRun also made the cut, and average analysts polled by FactSet/Refinitiv implies nearly 89% upside moving forward. Shares have pulled back more than 52% from the start of the year as higher interest rates pressure the overall solar sector . RUN YTD mountain SunRun stock.
Persons: Russell, SunRun Organizations: Labor Department, CPI, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Treasury, MGM International, Caesars Entertainment, MGM, Caesars, Las, Solar Battery, FactSet, BMO Capital Markets, Dish Network, AES Corporation Locations: Las Vegas
Burry also closed out bearish options against the broad S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Index, the filings showed. His Scion Asset Management’s biggest new position last quarter was in bearish options on an exchange-traded fund focused on semiconductors. He bought put options with a notional value of $47.4 million against the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX.O), according to the filing. The filings also showed that Burry's fund no longer held puts on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. Hedge fund Man Group also sold its 1.1 million shares in Nvidia, while Renaissance Technologies LLC sold its entire stake in the company.
Persons: Michael Burry, Burry, George Soros, Carolina Mandl, David Gregorio, Anna Driver, Deepa Babington Organizations: U.S, Nasdaq, iShares Semiconductor, Soros Fund Management, Society, Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactoring, Man, Renaissance Technologies, Tiger Global Management, Eisler Capital, Man Group, Duquesne Family Office, Thomson Locations: U.S, TSMC, New York
Heard on the Street: This Isn’t Your Dad’s Bond Rally
  + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Heard on the Street: This Isn’t Your Dad’s Bond RallyTuesday’s soft inflation data capped off an epic rally in U.S. bond prices. Investors who piled into a popular long-term bond fund—the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF—when benchmark yields were flirting with 5% last month, had earned 8.8% by yesterday afternoon. But a walk down Memory Lane is a good reminder that cause and effect didn’t always work this way.
Persons: Heard, didn’t Organizations: Treasury, ETF
2023: The year of chasing yield Investors historically chase after stock performance, but 2023 has been the year of chasing after yield performance. This year, the combined assets under management at money market funds grew to a record $6 trillion. There have been large inflows into short-term Treasury funds like the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and, surprisingly, even into long-term Treasury ETFs like the iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Still, some think a large chunk of the money in short-term Treasuries and money markets is "scared money" and will be "sticky." Those institutional investors "Don't want any money in cash because it will lag behind the stock market," he told me.
Persons: Paul McCulley, they're, Mark Lehman, Eric Balchunas, Jeff Seyffart, Alec Young, Steve Sosnick, Jim Besaw, Besaw, Mike O'Rourke, JonesTrading, Matt Maley, Miller Tabak, Chris Murphy Organizations: Federal, CNBC, Citizens JMP Securities, Treasury, Treasury Bond ETF, Bloomberg, Schwab Money Fund, MapSignals, Interactive Brokers, Gentrust, UBS Locations: Susquehanna
Investors don't need to abandon the themes that worked in 2023 just because the calendar is about to change, according to BlackRock. Jacobs said that 2023 could prove to be a "year of training" for AI but that the benefits could broaden out going forward. IRBO YTD mountain This broad iShares ETF focused on AI and automation has outperformed the S & P 500 year to date. Mexico stocks, as measured by the iShares Mexico ETF (EWW) , has been a strong performer this year with a total return of 25%, according to FactSet. A competitor fund, the WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (EPI) , has performed better in 2023 with a total return topping 15%.
Persons: Jay Jacobs, Jacobs, IShares, Eli Lilly Organizations: BlackRock, CNBC, Nvidia, Microsoft, Robotics, Intelligence, Technology, Novo Nordisk, Biotechnology, VanEck Pharmaceutical Locations: BlackRock, U.S, United States, Mexico, India
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2023. Other large China-focused ETFs, including the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI.O), KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB.P), also showed upbeat options activity, according to Trade Alert data. "It certainly seems that there is generally bullish positioning ahead of the meeting," said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, noting that the positions had been built up over several days. Reuters GraphicsInvestors' nascent enthusiasm for Chinese stocks is at odds with how these ETF's have performed this year. Daniel Kirsch, head of options at Piper Sandler, said recent bullish options flows into KWEB may be to do with a combination of enthusiasm ahead of the Biden-Xi meeting as well as results from Chinese e-commerce companies JD.com and Alibaba .
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Joe Biden's, Xi Jinping, Steve Sosnick, Biden, Xi, Sosnick, Daniel Kirsch, Piper Sandler, JD.com, Kirsch, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Suzanne McGee, Ira Iosebashvili, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, iShares, KraneShares CSI China Internet, Interactive, Federal, Economic Cooperation, Reuters Graphics Investors, Research, Biden, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, KraneShares, San Francisco, Asia
Tax loss harvesting is a staple of year-end planning. Bonds are ripe for tax loss harvesting in the wake of the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle. Consider that the longer-dated iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has a year-to-date total return of about -7.3%, while the shorter-term iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) has a total return of roughly 0.7% in 2023, according to Morningstar. "Tax loss harvesting is a silver lining for some of the pain they've been feeling the last couple of years." Bonds and the wash sale rule To benefit from tax loss harvesting, investors must avoid violating the wash sale rule .
Persons: Bonds, Morningstar, Kristy Akullian, Jeffrey Levine, St . Louis, Levine, Jordan Naffa, Naffa, VGSH, Lisa, Kirchenbauer Organizations: Treasury Bond ETF, Bond, BlackRock, Internal, Strategic Wealth, Arista Wealth Management, Treasury, SEC, VGIT, Omega Wealth Management Locations: St ., Las Vegas, Arlington , Va
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