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☆ The traditional December bounce for stocks may be more elusive, but it’s still possible
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

In those years, December was just the fourth best month, with the S & P 500 rising 1.35% and gaining 68% of the time. As the S & P 500 exits November, it is down about 17% this year. The S & P 500 could mirror some of the other very negative years. For instance, the S & P 500 was down 18.5% through November in 2002, and then bottomed in March 2003, gaining 26.4% that year. Watching key levels In order to confirm a bullish cycle, Suttmeier said the S & P 500 needs to regain the 40-week moving average at 4,033.

☆ The economy is already in a 'rolling recession', and that could set stocks up for a better 2023, Charles Schwab investment chief says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US is already in a "rolling recession," according to Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders. Sonders said that could soon weigh on corporate earnings, with more downside possible for stocks. "We're already in a version of recession, we've been talking about it in the context of a rolling recession. A rolling recession means those losses could soon spread to corporate earnings, Sonders said, which would likely hit the stock market sector by sector rather than crashing all at once. If a recession is mild and the job market holds up, that could mean a better environment for stocks in the second half of 2023.

☆ This indicator is offering a hopeful signal for global markets, despite turmoil in China
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Rising Covid cases in China and protests are shadowing economic sentiment but are otherwise hard to fit into the broader outlook. Global equity-market breadth has improved, with this Ned Davis Research chart of the percentage of MSCI All Country World Index components nudging into uptrends offering a more hopeful signal. Not yet definitive, but it suggests if nothing else that the typical stock on the globe has been finding some fresh demand in recent weeks. Sentiment is cautious, though less fearful versus six weeks ago, and it's still supportive but no catalyst on its own.

☆ Two words investors need to follow to find stocks to ride this comeback — 'Old School'
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 4.9% in November, outperforming the other major averages. MKM chief market technician JC O'Hara said in a note to clients on Sunday that "old school leadership" is here to stay. "If this old index can continue to push higher and deeper into overbought territory, that will help break the S & P 500 out." One way for investors to play this trend is ETFs of old-school stocks, including the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) . The fund tracks the 30 stocks in the Dow Average, with an expense ratio of 0.16%, or $1.60 for every $1,000 invested.

Nov 27 (Reuters) - Top Canadian banks are expected to post a decline in fourth-quarter profits as choppy markets hurt wealth management and a slow deal pipeline dents income from investment banking, offsetting expected gains from business loans. On average, profit for the Big Six banks are expected to drop 4% from last year, hurt by lower investment banking activity. Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO) and Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO), which have the largest capital markets businesses, are expected to see the biggest hit to profits. "Business lending was particularly strong and aided by strength in balances outside of Canada," KBW analysts Mike Rizvanovic and Abhilash Shashidharan said. National Bank of Canada (NA.TO) and Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO), also among the Big Six, will report earnings on Wednesday and Friday, respectively.

☆ Best Buy's jump on ho-hum earnings shows how unloved some retail stocks have become
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. The tape remains firm, levitating toward the upper end of a tight range in place for a week and a half. Best Buy 's pop on a still-soft sales outlook shows how cheap and unloved some of the group's leading stocks have become, though understandably given how sellers of goods over-earned the prior couple of years. It also shows upside risk, as managers might be forced to chase, though other gauges suggest more a hopeful stance by retail (decent stock inflows recently). There's a way to tell the story of 2022 as a year of concentrated, productive payback and reset.

☆ The S&P 500 needs to clear 3 big hurdles to convince investors the bull market has returned, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

ideThe S&P 500 has three technical levels to clear before signaling to investors that a new bull market is here, according to BofA. The bank said the S&P 500 holding support at 3,900 is a bullish sign that confirms its recent breakout. BofA analyst Stephen Suttmeier is monitoring three key technical levels that currently serve as an important resistance target for the S&P 500. If the market can clear these hurdles, it would be a signal to investors that a new bull market has arrived following a nearly year-long long cyclical bear market. The S&P 500 traded just above 3,950 in Monday's session.

☆ Bob Iger's return may not boost Disney's shares as market sends mixed signals to media stocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Valuations are less demanding than several months ago, which is probably fair for the average stock but fuller at the index level thanks to still-rich megacaps. Treasurys rising again at the longer end, sinking the yield curve further, while the dollar rebounds a bit — both risk-averse actions. The current economic activity levels are not observably recessionary, but the yield curve and its historical record of preceding recessions is in investors' head. Here is the enterprise value-to-forward-cash-flow ratios of Disney vs. Netflix .

☆ Hints of a joyless spending trend emerge in the retail sales report and Target’s quarterly results
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. The market continues to pause, stall, digest and regroup with the S & P 500 churning near the 4,000 level, its maximum gain off the Oct. 13 intraday low 15% to this week's high. This time, the S & P 500 was down 11.5% before the curve went negative. S & P 500 was down 15% in the prior year to that point. With Treasury yields higher than in past years, it means absolute debt expense for riskier borrowers has begun to pinch, but for now spreads show no alarming pattern.

☆ Port of Los Angeles October imports tumble, pressured by labor worries
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Lisa Baertlein | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] Stacked containers and cranes are shown at the Port of Los Angeles in Los Angeles, California, U.S. November 22, 2021. Seaports like New York/New Jersey, Savannah and Houston have benefited from the uncertainty surrounding ongoing West Coast port labor talks and continue to report robust results. The biggest drag was from incoming "cargo that has shifted to the East and Gulf Coasts due to protracted labor negotiations" between West Coast port workers and their employers, Seroka said. Year-to-date volume is down almost 6% versus 2021, when Los Angeles port volume hit an all-time annual high. Reporting by Lisa Baertlein in Los Angeles; Editing by David GregorioOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ One year after Nasdaq peak, growth stocks have tumbled and crypto has broken — where to from here?
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-12 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The Nasdaq record came just ten days after Bitcoin's apex near $67,000, a moment when total cryptocurrency market value topped $2.8 trillion. Those numbers today are under $17,000 for Bitcoin and the crypto market cap is around $800 billion, down 70%-plus. Just days after the November 2021 Nasdaq high, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell abruptly and publicly shifted his rhetoric on inflation and monetary policy, endorsing a much faster removal of stimulus than previously indicated. In the 18 months leading to the March 2000 Nasdaq peak, the index more than tripled. One year after the March 2000 Nasdaq peak, with the index down some 60%, the Nasdaq 100 still had a forward price/earnings ratio above 50.

☆ The Fed has smashed the housing market and killed rampant speculation - and that means 'we're almost there' with inflation, former PIMCO chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed has smashed the housing market and killed rampant speculation, according to PIMCO's former chief economist. He pointed to the doubling of mortgage rates and trouble in crypto as signs the Fed has sufficiently tightened. Mortgage rates have doubled and home buying activity is set to slump, meaning the housing market is "down for the count," McCulley said. "The housing market is smashed, the enthusiasm for speculation in the marketplace [that] was rampant in 2021 has been removed," McCulley said. Inflation clocked in at 7.7% in October's inflation report, below economists' expectations of 8% inflation.

☆ The Fed has done enough and 'really, really should pause' rate hikes, top economist Paul Krugman says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed has hiked rates enough and "really, really should pause," according to top economist Paul Krugman. But he doubted the Fed would pause its rate hike regime, as central bankers are trying to restore lost credibility. And they really, really should pause and wait to see," Krugman told Bloomberg TV. A Fed pause could endanger its reputation further – even if staying the course means potentially overtightening the economy. Currently, the fed funds rate is targeted between 3.75% to 4%, with expectations for the Fed to raise rates another 100 basis points before stopping.

☆ The stock market could soon reverse its 'borderline miraculous rally' and retest June lows, UBS's Art Cashin says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks could whipsaw and retest June lows despite October's positive inflation report, Arthur Cashin said. Cashin noted that stock market rallies since June have been fleeting, and it's still a bear market. He warned a reversal could come when the VIX approaches 20, and the gauge currently clocks in at 22. Rallies since then have usually ended when the Cboe Volatility Index neared a critical level of 20, Cashin noted. The VIX—known as the stock market's fear gauge—is currently just above that threshold, clocking at 22.61 as of 1 p.m.

☆ Markets are setting up for a relief rally in the coming weeks, says chart analyst Katie Stockton
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

There may be some opportunities for investors to sell stocks with gains in the coming weeks as markets pose a relief rally, technical analyst Katie Stockton said Thursday. "We saw the relief rally then and over the summer extend higher for another month or so." Technical signals flashing Part of the summer rally was boosted by seasonal factors, she said. Tech oversold There's also favorable action in the Nasdaq 100, which has underperformed and exhibited strong downward momentum as of late. Tech stocks, which make up a large portion of the Nasdaq 100, surged in early trading Thursday.

☆ Chile inflation slows to 8-month low in positive surprise
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Fabian Cambero | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SANTIAGO, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Chile's inflation slowed to its lowest level in eight months in October, official data showed on Tuesday, a positive surprise likely to reinforce the central bank's take that its aggressive monetary tightening cycle has come to an end. According to INE, inflation last month was boosted mainly by higher food and non-alcoholic beverage prices, as well as transportation costs. Scotiabank's Chile senior economist Anibal Alarcon, on the other hand, said he already forecasts an aggressive rate cut of between 100 and 200 basis points in January 2023 after October's "true disinflationary surprise". "We expect the market to align with our view very quickly with significant falls in nominal rates," Alarcon added. Reporting by Fabian Andres Cambero and Gabriel Araujo; Editing by Steven Grattan and Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Election forecasts are fueling the rally, but stocks need to hit this level to win over the bears
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. The multi-day bounce has now taken the S & P 500 back to where it sat as Fed Chair Powell started taking questions and overtly raised his own outlook for how high rates must go six days ago. The ICE Bank of America MOVE Index (the Treasury market's VIX) is still in an uptrend but these pullbacks have coincided with equity rallies all year. The average stock has dropped 36% from its high and the equal-weight S & P is at a relatively undemanding 14-times forward earnings. VIX bottoms (and equity rally tops) have come a few times this year near 19.

☆ JPMorgan says these 8 energy stocks have huge 'upside potential' amid painful rate hikes – and breaks down 2 others that allows investors to cash in near-term
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

While the S&P 500 is down nearly 20% year-to-date, its energy sector is up about 60% so far in 2022. JPMorgan recommends these 8 Russell 2000-listed energy stocks amid a harsh macro backdrop. Amid the central bank's monetary tightening to combat near 40-year high inflation, stocks continue their downtrend. Energy stocks, in particular, could be a nice buying opportunity as the US economy appears to be heading toward a recession. With a mix of both growth and value stocks, JPMorgan recommends these 10 Russell 2000-listed stocks amid harsh macro conditions.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, however, reiterated the central bank's resolve to keep interest rates ultra-low, indicating that the yen's broad downtrend could continue. The finance minister repeated his warning that authorities are closely watching market moves and will not tolerate "excessive currency moves driven by speculative trading". In September, when Japan conducted its first yen-buying intervention since 1998, authorities immediately confirmed they had stepped in. Since the Oct. 21 intervention, the yen has been moving in a range below the psychologically important threshold of 150 yen versus the dollar. As such, it's necessary to support the economy with acccomodative monetary policy," Kuroda told parliament on Tuesday.

☆ Ammunition tech firm TV Ammo to go public in $1.2 billion blank-check deal
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 1 (Reuters) - Ammunition technology company TV Ammo Inc will merge with blank-check firm Breeze Holdings Acquisition Corp (BREZ.O) in a deal that values the combined entity at $1.21 billion, the companies said on Tuesday. The transaction is expected to generate cash proceeds of about $76.8 million, assuming there are no redemptions from the trust account of the blank-check or special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC). The De-SPAC Index (.DESPACTR) that tracks a basket of companies that have listed through SPAC mergers is down roughly 65% so far this year. A SPAC is a listed shell company that merges with a private company, taking it public in the process. After the deal closes, expected towards the first quarter of 2023, Breeze Holdings will be renamed "True Velocity Inc".

☆ A key threshold awaits the S&P 500, which could test the staying power of this October rally
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. The tape's refusal to buckle on bad news (the consumer price index report, megacap tech earnings blowups, etc.) Yet again, the market is trying to make its peace with a new higher threshold of rates that few foresaw coming even six months ago. Profit forecasts continue to drop though still at a measured pace for the fourth quarter, with 2023 an unknown. Weekend column gets into the ins and outs of seasonal factors, which fail just often enough for people to doubt them.

☆ The market should rally during this time of year, even as tech struggles and new leaders emerge
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"You could say small cap value but you could also find within large cap, stocks that are relatively cheap. The S & P 500 , on track for a nearly 8% gain for October, was off 0.7%. But the small cap Russell 2000 and the S & P 600 small cap value were up slightly for the day. If the S & P 500 performs as it has on average, it could rise to 3,950, the analysts note. "My conviction is higher that [S & P 600] will outperform than it will go up in absolute terms," he said.

☆ Breaking down October's big stock bounce — and why the market didn't need Big Tech to do it
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. -The S & P has managed tentatively to have broken the downtrend from the mid-August peak and has rebuilt a bit of a cushion. Before the report AMZN had traded exactly in line with S & P 500 over the prior three years. -Market breadth today is mixed, 50-50, AAPL really pushing the indexes quite a bit on its own. VIX succumbing to stronger indexes and the "Friday effect," though will likely rebuild into the Fed next week.

☆ This latest raft of Big Tech earnings could help answer a key question around valuation
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The follow-through gains put the S & P 500 on pace to break above the short-term downtrend that's been in place since mid-August. Higher yields (allowing companies to earn more on cash balances and making debt pricier) should mute new buyback activity for many from here out. Here's the Invesco BuyBack Achievers ETF versus S & P 500 over five years: The start of mega-cap tech earnings reports will help answer the question of whether the valuation adjustments have gone far enough. Multiple compression has come not just from higher yields (the price-earnings expansion that preceded it also wasn't about ever-lower yields – yields had stopped making new lows in mid-2020, 15 months before the Nasdaq peaked). The overall S & P 500 will show that level of sales growth this quarter.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterAfter the dollar rose to 151.94 yen , its highest since 1990, the intervention drove the greenback down more than 7 yen to a low of 144.50 yen. The Ministry of Finance (MOF) intervened in several stages from around 9:35 p.m. (1235 GMT), one source said. Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, also declined to say whether the MOF had intervened. Many market players doubt whether Tokyo can reverse the yen's downtrend with solo intervention, even with Japan's $1.33 trillion in foreign reserves. Japan bought a record 3.6 trillion yen ($24 billion) in the September action, Tokyo money market brokerage firms estimated.

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