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Nvidia stock can't keep climbing forever, according to DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria. The Wall Street veteran sees a decline of as much as 20% in Nvidia stock in the next few years. That trend will falter, Luria predicts, and he says he's anticipating a double-digit decline for the chip maker's stock within the next 18 months. Advertisement"My estimates for 2026 are the lowest on the Street," Luria said. AdvertisementLuria has warned of a long-term decline for Nvidia stock for months, though investors are still feeling pretty bullish.
Persons: Gil Luria, , who's, Luria, It's, Tesla Organizations: Wall Street, Nvidia, Service
The news will come with stocks on pace to close out a strong month that included all-time highs. Stocks are poised to end an impressive month of gains after some softer inflation data released earlier in May and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings revived investor exuberance in the market rally. On Friday, the 30-stock Dow was on pace to snap a five-week win streak, falling by 2% for the period. Pesky inflation, consumer weakness The April personal income and expenditures report, which includes the PCE inflation reading, could confirm the recent trend of cooling inflation. Pending Home Sales (April) Earnings: Costco Wholesale , Ulta Beauty , NetApp , Best Buy , Dollar General , Hormel Foods Friday, May 31 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Dow, Mike Dickson, Dickson, FactSet, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Steph, it's, Christian Mueller, Glissmann, Mueller Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Horizon Investments, Fed, PCE, Robinhood, Costco Wholesale, Software, Dallas Fed, Richmond Fed, Hormel, Chicago PMI Locations: Chicago
Owning overcrowded trades that are most popular among hedge funds could be risky for individual investors in the event of a herd-like stampede by systematic traders, according to Morgan Stanley, which looked at stocks to avoid. Despite their popularity and performance, none of the megacap tech stocks made the list of overcrowded stocks. That's because their enormous share count makes hedge funds' ownership less significant. Morgan Stanley found that hedge funds were most overweight in consumer discretionary, industrial and health care stocks last quarter, while they were most bearish on technology and consumer staples companies. Janus Henderson , The New York Times , Planet Fitness and Wayfair were also on the list of crowded trades.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Russell, Howard Hughes, Janus Henderson, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Avis Budget Group, Howard Hughes Holdings, The New York Times Locations: The
Morgan Stanley accompanied the move by cutting its price target to $100 from $120. His $185 price target, up from $160, forecasts that shares of Take-Two could rally 23% from Wednesday's close. — Lisa Kailai Han 5:55 a.m.: Bernstein initiates Ford at an outperform rating Investors who don't own Ford are missing out, according to Bernstein. — Lisa Kailai Han 5:55 a.m.: JPMorgan upgrades Hasbro Don't expect Hasbro's momentum to slow in the near future, according to JPMorgan. It also raised its price target on shares to $74 from $61, implying upside of 22%.
Persons: Bernstein, Morgan Stanley downgrades NetEase, Morgan Stanley, Alex Poon, Poon, Lisa Kailai Han, Omar Dessouky, Dessouky, — Lisa Kailai Han, Sam Poser, Sean Dodge, Dodge, GoodRx, Ford, Daniel Roeska, Roeska didn't, Roeska, Christopher Horvers, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Ford, JPMorgan, Hasbro, NetEase, Bank of America, Rockstar Games, Rockstar, Supreme, Corp, Trading, EMEA, Timberland, RBC, RBC Capital Markets, pharma, Kroger Locations: China, Wednesday's, Americas
In a Thursday interview with CNBC's Jim Cramer, Charles Schwab CEO Walt Bettinger said inflation is the most pressing concern among the brokerage firm's 35 million clients. "We just put out today one of our regular studies on client sentiment, and what's happened is, inflation has now become the No. 1 concern among investors," Bettinger said. "When they think about inflation, it has moved their position from the first quarter of being a little bit on the bullish side to where now they're a little bit on the bearish side." He added that Schwab recommends most investors build up their portfolios with low-cost index funds or low-cost actively managed funds.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Charles Schwab, Walt Bettinger, Bettinger, Schwab Organizations: Federal Reserve
In what was the most anticipated quarter this earnings season, Nvidia far outpaced lofty expectations on the top and bottom lines. Adjusted gross margin of 78.9% also beat the Street's 77.2% estimate, according to market data platform FactSet. Through its Nvidia AI Enterprise service, Nvidia is in the process of building out a potentially massive software business. Nvidia said Tesla's use of Nvidia AI infrastructure "paved the way" for the "breakthrough performance" of full self-driving version 12. Kress expects sovereign AI revenue to approach the high single-digit billions of dollars this year from nothing last year.
Persons: Jensen Huang, Blackwell, here's, Jensen, it's, It's, Colette Kress, Kress, Hopper, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, David Paul Morris Organizations: Nvidia, Revenue, Enterprise, Devices, Intel, Oracle, Microsoft, Infrastructure, Blackwell, Capital, CNBC, Nvidia Corp, Technology Conference, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: China, U.S, San Jose , California
"Nothing" to excite about the Kiwi dollar: Deutsche Bank
  + stars: | 2024-05-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email"Nothing" to excite about the Kiwi dollar: Deutsche BankTim Baker from Deutsche Bank explains his bearish stance on the New Zealand dollar and why he thinks the currency is on "borrowed time".
Persons: Deutsche Bank Tim Baker Organizations: Kiwi, Deutsche Bank, New Zealand
Nvidia's earnings release is front and center this week as the beloved chipmaker should determine the short-term direction of U.S. equities. Led by the $2.3 trillion behemoth Nvidia (NVDA) , semiconductors have been on fire in 2024 after a dramatic outperformance in 2023. I want to implement a hedge using the popular VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) which has a near 21% weighting to Nvidia. The largest ETF to hold NVDA is the SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) , with a 5.1% allocation or about $28 billion in market value. It can (and has) propel NVDA higher in a faster manner, but it also can amplify a move lower (if that is possible for the AI darling, NVDA).
Persons: NVDA SMH Organizations: Nvidia, VanEck Semiconductor, Trust
Independent U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. hikes in the Santa Monica Mountains in Los Angeles on March 18, 2024. "My administration will support the Ape retail rebellion and enact aggressive Wall Street reforms," Kennedy Jr. wrote in a social media post. The apes were motivated in part by a desire to buck bearish Wall Street analysts' grim assessments of the companies' long-term prospects. Kennedy Jr. is actively courting undecided voters with a fringe political brand that could appeal to some anti-establishment meme stock investors. Kennedy Jr. has made obscure statements about his investment record.
Persons: Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Kennedy, Trump's, Trump Organizations: Independent U.S, GameStop, AMC Locations: Santa Monica, Los Angeles, bitcoin
JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic sees no reason to turn bullish on the stock market despite record highs. In a Monday note, Kolanovic reiterated his view that the S&P 500 could fall 20% to 4,200. AdvertisementJust one day after Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson abandoned his bearish stock market call, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic is digging his heels in. Kolanovic is the last mega-bank-bear on Wall Street, reiterating his view in a Monday note that the S&P 500 will fall about 20% to 4,200, levels not seen since October. And AI won't save the stock market, either.
Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, , Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, It's Organizations: Service Locations: Kolanovic
The U.S. equity strategist now expects the S & P 500 will rise to 5,400 by the second quarter of 2025. Just last week, the S & P 500 closed above 5,300 for the first time. His bull case of 6,350 represents roughly 20% upside over the next 12 months for the S & P 500. Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha hiked his S & P 500 target to 5,100, noting the benchmark could pop to 5,500. But market strategists on average are anticipating the S & P 500 will fall to 5,220 by the end of 2024, according to CNBC's Market Strategist Survey .
Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Morgan Stanley's, Brian Belski, Chadha, Dubravko, Bujas Organizations: CNBC Market, Deutsche
In a note on Sunday, Mike Wilson increased his S&P 500 price target by 20% to 5,400. Morgan Stanley's CIO Mike Wilson ditched his bearish call in a note on Sunday, increasing his 12-month S&P 500 price target by 20% to 5,400. AdvertisementWilson's base-case S&P 500 price target of 5,400 is derived from a 19x price-to-earnings multiple on 12-month forward earnings per share estimate of $283 by June 2026. Wilson first turned bearish on US stocks in 2021, correctly warning of a potential 20% decline in the S&P 500. JPMorgan maintains a year-end price target of 4,200 for the S&P 500, representing potential downside of 21% from current levels.
Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, , Morgan Stanley's, Dubravko, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Service, Wilson, JPMorgan
Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on a record pile of cash at $189 billion. Putting Berkshire's cash pile into perspectiveInstead of measuring Berkshire Hathaway's cash position on an absolute basis, investors are better off measuring the cash pile as a percentage of Berkshire's total assets, according to Bloomstran. Berkshire Hathaway's $189 billion cash is actually at a pretty normalized level, and well below its peak of nearly 40% in 2004. At the time, the S&P 500 was trading near record highs, Apple was the biggest company in the world, and Berkshire Hathaway's absolute cash pile was at a record. with regards to Berkshire's cash pile at this year's annual shareholder meeting, the legendary investor responded:Advertisement"We only swing at pitches we like."
Persons: Berkshire Hathaway, Chris Bloomstran, , Warren Buffett, Buffett, couldn't, Semper Augustus, Bloomstran, Berkshire Hathaway's, there's, Apple, He's, shouldn't Organizations: Service, Berkshire, Business, Berkshire Hathaway's, Apple Locations: Berkshire, That's
Various labor market indicators are also showing growing weakness in the economy, he said. Societe GeneraleNational Federation of Independent Business data shows further labor market weakness is likely to come, as small business hiring plans continue to fall. Both stats would suggest a rising unemployment rate going forward. In the meantime, the labor market has consistently proven resilient despite high interest rates, and stocks have enjoyed an eye-popping rally to new highs. Some also argue that labor market data points like the rising unemployment rate have to be shown with context.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, didn't, Edwards, aren't, we'll, Societe Generale Edwards, Bob Elliott, groupthink Edwards, Alan Greenspan Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Wall, Business, Societe Generale National Federation of Independent Business, ING, Generale, Unlimited Partners, Bridgewater Associates, of Labor Statistics, Tech
Meme stocks are in the spotlight this week. These so-called meme stocks, which gained popularity through social media platforms like Reddit and X (formerly known as Twitter), have attracted retail investors looking to make a quick profit. Future of meme stocks One analyst, who has previously been bearish on GameStop and tech stocks, said that while fundamentals for the stock have improved, GameStop is still in the "danger zone." 'Danger zone' stocks Here are some other stocks Trainer says is in his "danger zone" list, which also includes his "zombie stocks." He cited its "continuing deterioration" of its fundamentals, including its "unsustainable" expenses and steady cash burn.
Persons: David, Trainer, DoorDash's, Yun Li Organizations: GameStop, AMC, CNBC Pro, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Tilray
A storied hedge fund exited its GameStop wager last quarter, before the meme stock's epic surge. Paul Tudor Jones' firm held call options on 44,300 shares and puts on 27,800 shares in December. GameStop stock soared as much as 550% between late April and Tuesday, but has now pared those gains. AdvertisementA legendary hedge fund exited its GameStop position before the meme stock surged as much as 550%. Tudor Jones' firm also held bearish put options on 27,800 GameStop shares with a notional value of around $487,000.
Persons: Paul Tudor Jones, , Tudor Jones, bearish Organizations: GameStop, Service, Tudor Investment Corporation, SEC, Business
We'll review a "broken wing put butterfly" options trade to position bearishly on Costco. With a business model focused on memberships and rock-bottom prices, Costco (COST) has grown much faster than its peers and commands a significantly higher valuation. Over the past year, COST stock has rallied over 55%, nearly double what the S & P 500 returned over the same period. Additionally, with such a high-priced stock and options premiums elevated with earnings on deck in two weeks, we have to get creative to structure a trade to seek bearish exposure heading into earnings. I'm looking out to the June 7 th weekly expiration and buying a $700/730/775 broken wing put butterfly for $9.72 debit.
Organizations: Costco
With the S & P 500 making a fresh all-time high Wednesday morning, it has erased the 6% pullback in short-order. By late March, momentum began to slow, and it became clear that it would take some time to see the next bullish pattern. That means there still has not been a successful bearish pattern (big or small) since last October. If the S & P 500 can't hold this latest push to new highs, then a bullish formation like this could be constructed. The bottom line is this: Strong trends are made from both bullish patterns working and bearish patterns failing.
Persons: Frank Cappelleri Organizations: CNBC Pro
The DA Davidson analyst has predicted as much as a 20% decline in Nvidia stock by the end of the year. Nvidia's largest customers could turn into competition as they develop their own AI chips, Luria warned. AdvertisementMost of Nvidia's business comes from its five largest customers, Luria said, which include Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Tesla. And while some of Nvidia's customers are stockpiling its GPUs, demand is bound to run out eventually, Luria previously told Bloomberg, as firms can only accumulate so many chips. AdvertisementLuria has among few forecasters who are bearish on Nvidia stock.
Persons: Gil Luria, Davidson, Luria, , BNN, That's Organizations: Service, Nvidia, BNN Bloomberg, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, Apple, Bloomberg
We'll review a trade that wins if the market pulls back again. Inflation has been stubbornly high for months, and today's hotter-than-expected producer price index report only reinforces that notion. It is prudent to wait for confirmation of the double-top pattern before considering a bearish trade though. The trade setup: SPY 513-512 Bear Put Spread The trade structure I am using here is called a "bear put spread". BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: SPDR Dow, Nishant Pant Organizations: PPI, CPI, SPDR Dow Jones, Average Trust
GameStop stock soared as much as 118% on Monday, representing its biggest intraday gain in more than three years. The stock soared after Keith Gill, aka "RoaringKitty," posted on social media for the first time in years. AdvertisementGameStop stock soared as much as 118% on Monday, representing its biggest intra-day gain in over three years. The stock soared after Keith Gill, also known as "Roaring Kitty" and "DeepF---ingValue" posted to X for the first time in three years. GameStop stock isn't the only meme stock soaring on Monday.
Persons: Keith Gill, , Gill Organizations: GameStop, Service, S3 Partners, AMC Entertainment
Jim Cramer's daily rapid fire looks at stocks in the news outside the CNBC Investing Club portfolio. The CNBC Investing Club owns Disney . Target , Walmart : Analysts at Evercore ISI added the retail heavyweights to their tactical outperform list in advance of their earnings reports this month. Airlines: Analysts at HSBC initiated coverage of Delta Air Lines , United Airlines , American Airlines and Southwest . The CNBC Investing Club has long owned Nvidia.
Persons: Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Cramer, Penn, Rene Haas Organizations: CNBC, Club, Intel, Street Journal, Apollo Global Management, Penn Entertainment, Bank of America, ESPN Bet, ESPN, CNBC Investing Club, Disney, Target, Walmart, Evercore ISI, Airlines, Analysts, HSBC, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, American Airlines, Arm Holdings, Nikkei, Nvidia Locations: Ireland, Nikkei Asia
Despite a stock market that's less than 1% away from record highs, bearish forecasts are out in full force. And a weakening in the labor market will crush investor confidence and send the stock market falling by as much as 30%. BCA Research: A recession in early 2025 will cause 30% stock market declineBCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim warned that a 30% correction in the stock market could be sparked by a recession early next year. Rosenberg famously predicted the 2008 recession, but his consistently bearish economic outlooks since then have largely fallen flat. Advertisement"Forward earnings rose to a record high during April, consistent with a solid labor market.
Persons: , they're, Gary Shilling, we've, Shilling, BI's Jennifer Sor, we're, John Hussman, Hussman, wouldn't, Roukaya Ibrahim, Ibrahim, David Rosenberg, We're, Rosenberg, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, landers Organizations: Service, Wall, Hussman Investment Trust, BCA, Bloomberg Locations: Wall
The gauge is shown below in green and red alongside S&P 500 price action in blue. Most strategists at major Wall Street banks, meanwhile, generally see the S&P 500 staying above 5,000 through 2024. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, he's, Hussman, , it's, Warren Buffett, there's, David Rosenberg Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Business, CPS, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Dynamics, bullish
"The one thing that our economy is going to be guaranteed is a wartime economy," Daniel told Business Insider in an interview. Interest in ultra-bearish takes on the market or the economy is on the up based on raw search data. Google searches for "stock market crash" have jumped 17% over the last quarter, while searches for "economic crash" have surged 15%, according to search analytics firm Glimpse. In both communities, users are sounding the alarm on all sorts of apocalyptic scenarios for the economy, with some predicting a stock market crash, housing market crash, or a total collapse of the US financial system. "Others may not be as lucky and could be constrained by them, and that could color their outlooks for the stock market and the economy."
Persons: , Daniel, subreddit, Freddie Smith, Smith, aren't, Jonathan Rose, he's, Rose, there's, that's, Richard Sylla Organizations: Service, Genesis Gold, US, Northwestern Mutual, New York University Locations: Washington ,, Reddit, Florida
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