Michael Gayed says if volatility in the bond market doesn't abate, economic activity could halt.
But even for someone with Gayed's expertise, this year's market conditions have brought surprises relative to historical cycles.
Instead, it's a system-wide distress signal and an indication that the government bond market can't handle the higher rates, he added.
If the bond market were to have a really nasty collapse further from where we are now, "it's like a reset for the system", Gayed said.
However, a recovery likely won't be led by US large-cap stocks, Gayed said.