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On tap today we've got a great interview with a top real estate economist and this week's best markets stories, including updates on the Silicon Valley Bank meltdown. Nadia Evangelou: What we see in the data is that the housing market will likely pick up in the coming months, in the spring season. NE: It seems that homesales activity has bottomed out, and 2023 will be the turning point for the housing market. Due to low inventory, even though there are relatively few buyers on the market, housing demand continues to outpace housing supply. We expect 4.5 million homes to be sold in 2023, and about 5.3 million homes to be sold in 2024.
The Second-Biggest Bank Failure
  + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Karl Russell | Christine Zhang | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +5 min
A bar chart of U.S. bank failures since 2001, showing that Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse was the second-biggest in U.S. history in terms of assets. Before Silicon Valley Bank, the last firm to fail was in late 2020, as the coronavirus was ravaging the country. It’s unclear whether the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will spread to the broader industry. Silicon Valley Bank 209 17. Silicon Valley Bank 209 Fifth Third Bank 17.
Wall Street is taking note, as analysts pick their favorite AI stocks to buy now for profits later. Students are using ChatGPT to write papers, job seekers are using it to write cover letters, and some employees are even surreptitiously using the AI chatbot to do their jobs for them. ChatGPT is just the tip of the spear, as AI seems poised to upend industries around the globe. Bank of America analysts predict that the AI industry will be worth $900 billion by 2026. Luckily, Insider has been collecting research notes, interviewing analysts, and investigating which stocks will enjoy the biggest returns from the explosive growth of AI.
If you missed Jerome Powell's remarks from his first day on Capitol Hill yesterday, the TLDR is that more rate hikes are coming because the economy's still running hot. The market response to Powell's testimony was anything but muted. The idea is to eventually lower inflation — which most recently clocked in at 6.4% — but the more rate hikes we see, the greater the risk of a recession. So in short: stocks sold off, bond yields jumped, and traders eyed greater potential for a bigger rate hike this month. "If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes," Powell said.
Experts at BofA and UBS recently wrote about their approaches for investing in the theme. Tech analyst Dan Ives doubled his price target on AI pure play C3.AI, which has soared almost 150%. One of the market's splashiest artificial intelligence newcomers is here to stay, says Wedbush tech stock analyst Dan Ives. On Friday Ives boosted his price target on AI software company C3.AI from $13 per share all the way to $24. "The company continues to experience increased demand for its AI solutions that are designed to increase a range of applications across industries fueling tailwinds in the market," Ives wrote.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesIf you think the economy is confusing right now, consider how baffling it must look to Home Depot and Walmart. Home Depot said consumer spending is holding up, but that it expects a flat sales-growth year overall, with declining profits. Friday's PCE showed consumer spending rose more than expected as prices increased, jumping 1.8% for the month compared to the estimate of 1.4%. It wasn't a good week for the retail sector or consumer stocks, either. "The outlook for sustained consumer spending growth remains," wrote consumer analyst Jason English.
Detailed below are seven top stocks to buy now, according to the $17.5 billion value fund manager. The silver lining is that most Wall Street firms think the economy will experience a soft landing, which would be characterized by a mild downturn. This means buying value stocks that will both succeed amid a soft landing, as well as those poised to benefit from the more extreme event of a full-blown recession. Overall, he sees the group as attractively valued, especially in a soft landing scenario. Below are seven of Linehan's favorite value stocks to own in this environment along with the ticker, market capitalization, sector, and thesis for each.
Goldman Sachs has invited wealth management clients to invest in fintech unicorn Stripe, as reported by Bloomberg. The message was a rare peek into how the richest bank clients can access investments normally off-limits to individual investors. Insider redacted the wealth management vice president's name and email address to protect their privacy. Citi and JPMorgan, for instance, both have teams dedicated to direct private investments for private bank clients. Private wealth is a real power alley for us, and those continue to be good sources of funding," said Salisbury at a conference in September.
Club holdings Amazon (AMZN), Wells Fargo (WFC) as well as Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) are in the news Wednesday. In buying tech-focused One Medical, Amazon has said the companies together can make visiting the doctor an easier and more convenient experience. The news: A pair of banking regulators are investigating record-keeping failures at Wells Fargo, according to the company's annual filing. Specifically, Wells Fargo said the probes from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are focused on "business communications sent over unapproved electronic messaging channels." The Club's take: This is new disclosure from Wells Fargo is not cause for concern.
The outlook for Coinbase changed little even after it beat analyst expectations in the latest quarter, some Wall Street firms say. Coinbase reported a loss of $2.46 per share on revenue of $629 million. Meanwhile, the firm's user base fell to 8.3 million monthly transacting users (MTUs) in the fourth quarter, down from 8.5 million in the previous quarter and the 8.22 million Street estimate compiled by StreetAccount. Bank of America's Jason Kupferberg was underwhelmed by the results, saying that there was "nothing thesis-changing in the print" despite the solid results. EBITDA beat was helped by lower opex.
But high mortgage rates are making it difficult for homeowners to take advantage of this wealth. Home equity investments are a way to raise cash without taking out a new loan. However, higher mortgage rates have made it more difficult for Americans to take advantage of this wealth. He said the company foresees "strong demand" for the home equity investments in the coming months. According to a Redfin analysis of government data, 85% of US homeowners tote a mortgage rate far below today's level of 6%.
The outlook for Club holding Wynn Resorts (WYNN) hasn't been this good since the Covid pandemic started. I've been saying more needs to be done to right the ship at this Club holding. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Global markets revenue jumped by about 24% in October-December, the euro zone's biggest bank said on Tuesday, fuelled by a 45% leap in revenue from trading in commodity derivatives, rates, foreign exchange and emerging markets. BNP's 45% sales growth in FICC trading (fixed income, commodities, currencies) compared with 25% growth at peers, analysts at Barclays said. Shares in BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) were up as much as 4% by 1432 GMT on Tuesday, outperforming the euro zone bank index (.SX7E) and valuing the group at more than 78 billion euros ($83 billion). "These are upward revisions that are quite significant and not so frequent," Bonnafe told reporters in a call. BNP Paribas' net income fell by 6.7% to 2.15 billion euros.
RAISED TARGETSBNP's solvency ratio has notably benefited from the $16.3 billion sale of the group's U.S. retail business Bank of the West. The transaction, closed on Feb. 1, will fund the bulk of the share buyback, that will be carried out in two tranches. Recent central bank rate hikes are set to bolster earnings from loans, especially if the spectre of a recession on the continent recedes. "We are setting ambitious financial targets and pursuing our technological advances," Chief Executive Jean-Laurent Bonnafé said. ($1 = 0.9326 euros)Writing by Mathieu Rosemain; Editing by Ingrid Melander, Kirsten DonovanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Carlyle's new boss will be virtuoso second fiddle
  + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Jonathan Guilford | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
That’s the best way of interpreting the private equity firm’s appointment of former Goldman Sachs (GS.N) banker Harvey Schwartz on Monday. He never quite made it to the CEO job at Goldman, though served in a number of high-level roles like chief financial officer and chief operating officer. They felt that the ousted Lee, who pushed hard to diversify Carlyle’s business, hadn’t adequately consulted them on big moves, according to Reuters. The firm’s co-founder Bill Conway, also one of Carlyle’s two co-chairmen, has been filling the role on an interim basis. Schwartz previously held various senior roles including chief financial officer and chief operating officer at investment bank Goldman Sachs, which he left in 2018.
Veteran dealmaker Michael Klein has stepped down from the Credit Suisse board to become CEO. Third-party capital would help fund the unit's lending as a standalone entity, Credit Suisse said, without providing additional details. At the same time, Credit Suisse would pull back from certain businesses, such as providing revolving credit lines to companies and non-essential trading. Bloomberg News reported last month that Credit Suisse was nearing a deal to buy the boutique for a few hundred million dollars. Longer term under its plan for CSFB, Credit Suisse projects net revenues could rise to as much as $3.5 billion.
Many big banks, in particular, maintained drug-testing policies for new hires as recently as a few years ago. But as the public appetite, and market, for drugs like psychedelics continues to rise, it'll be interesting to see how Wall Street responds. Click here to get the latest on the drug-testing policies at Wall Street's biggest banks. More on Solomon's salary adjustment and how it compares with other Wall Street leaders. Turns out FTX might owe top Wall Street banks some money.
The S&P 500 energy sector (.SPNY) is up 4.2% year-to-date, slightly lagging the rise for the broader index (.SPX). Goldman Sachs, RBC Capital Markets and UBS Global Wealth Management are among the Wall Street firms recommending energy stocks. He said he is slightly overweight the energy sector, including shares of Chevron and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD.N). But earnings are expected to decline 15% this year, the biggest drop among the 11 S&P 500 sectors. Energy companies executed $22 billion in share buybacks in the third quarter, just over 10% of all S&P 500 buybacks.
NEW YORK, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is probing registered investment advisers over whether they are meeting rules around custody of client crypto assets, three sources with knowledge of the inquiry told Reuters. SEC enforcement staff are asking investment advisers for details around what the firms did to assess custody for platforms including FTX, one of the sources said. By law, investment advisers cannot have custody of client funds or securities if they do not meet certain requirements to protect the assets. "This is an obvious compliance issue for investment advisers. Under Democratic leadership, the SEC has made crypto a priority area for enforcement, nearly doubling the size of its crypto team last year.
The S&P 500 energy sector (.SPNY) is up 4.2% year-to-date, slightly lagging the rise for the broader index (.SPX). Goldman Sachs, RBC Capital Markets and UBS Global Wealth Management are among the Wall Street firms recommending energy stocks. He said he is slightly overweight the energy sector, including shares of Chevron and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD.N). But earnings are expected to decline 15% this year, the biggest drop among the 11 S&P 500 sectors. Energy companies executed $22 billion in share buybacks in the third quarter, just over 10% of all S&P 500 buybacks.
Wayfair — Shares of the furniture retailer jumped 24.1% on Monday after Wayfair received upgrades from multiple Wall Street firms, include a double upgrade to overweight from underweight at JPMorgan. Spotify — Spotify gained 3.1% after the company sent an internal memo to staff on Monday announcing plans to lay off 6% of its global workforce, or about 600 employees. Western Digital — Shares jumped 7% after Bloomberg reported that merger talks between Western Digital and Kioxia are advancing. Western Digital would spin off its flash business and merge it with Kioxia in a separately traded company, the report said. Evoqua shares jumped more than 14% following the announcement.
Ken Griffin, the founder and CEO of Citadel. It's good to be Ken Griffin. Plenty of people find success on Wall Street that most can only dream of. But Ken Griffin seems to be winning in ways that even his peers can't fathom. Click here to read more about Ken Griffin rise to the top of Wall Street and what could be next for the billionaire.
Through the first three weeks of the year, the exchange traded funds tracking cybersecurity stocks are underperforming the rest of tech sector. The iShares Cybersecurity and Tech ETF (IHAK) , for example, has returned just 1% in January, well behind the tech and communication services funds that are also sponsored by BlackRock. The January underperformance comes at a time when high growth cybersecurity stocks were expected stay in favor. "From my perspective, it should be doing better in terms of performance because of the tailwinds that are behind cybersecurity," Maier said. Cyber stocks moved broadly higher, with the Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) gaining almost 3%.
"FANG" and other big cap tech have faded as favorite trades, but i nvesting in foreign stocks as a way to generate better returns is just beginning. The outperformance in foreign markets has not gone unnoticed by U.S. investors, bruised by the 19.4% decline in the S & P 500 last year. Also, investors in foreign stocks will benefit if their local currencies gain against the dollar. Investors are now monitoring foreign markets much more and focusing on what's happening in currency pairs, like dollar/yen. "I think a lot of investors will play Europe stocks right out of the gate," he said.
BNY Mellon to cut 3% of workforce this year - source
  + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Manya Saini | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
Jan 13 (Reuters) - Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK.N) is planning to cut around 3% of its workforce this year, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Friday, joining a number of Wall Street firms in trimming headcount to cope with turbulent markets. The layoffs, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, translate to about 1,500 jobs of the bank's total reported headcount of 51,700 as of end-2022. Shares in BNY Mellon were up 2.4% in afternoon trading. BNY Mellon reported a 38% drop in fourth-quarter profit to $509 million. Chief Executive Robin Vince in a post-earnings call with analysts acknowledged that the company was facing inflationary headwinds, and added that the bank's expense growth was high.
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