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☆ OPEC cites risks to summer oil outlook, holds demand forecast
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, April 13 (Reuters) - OPEC on Thursday flagged downside risks to summer oil demand as part of the backdrop to shock output cuts announced by OPEC+ producers on April 2, although the producer group maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023. Some members of OPEC+, which includes OPEC, Russia and others, announced new voluntary production cuts on April 2. But in a discussion on the summer market outlook in its monthly oil report on Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said oil inventories looked more ample and global growth faced a number of challenges. Still, OPEC maintained its forecast that oil demand will rise by 2.32 million barrels per day (bpd), or 2.3%, in 2023 and nudged up its forecast for China. OPEC left its 2023 economic growth forecast at 2.6% and cited potential downside risks.

☆ Economist who called 2008 crisis says more bank collapses are coming
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

More bank failures are coming, according to top economist Raghuram Rajan. Rajan, who called the 2008 crisis, warned of more volatility stemming from the Fed's rate hikes. The bank's failure sparked a steep sell-off in regional bank stocks, leading some commentators to warn of a 1980s-style banking crisis. "This sense that the spillover effects of monetary policy are huge and aren't dealt with by ordinary supervision has just escaped our consciousness over the last so many years," Rajan said of central bank policy. But Fed Chair Powell has denied the possibility of a rate cut this year, warning markets that rates would continue remain restrictive through 2023.

☆ Markets and the economy survived a tough first quarter, but it's not going to get any easier
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Despite peaks and valleys, stocks closed the first quarter on an up note, with the S & P 500 rallying more than 7% and the tech-fueled Nasdaq soaring about 16%. .SPX .DJI YTD line S & P 500 gains so far in 2023 Indeed, the market has lived through a lifetime of scary headlines in the first three months of 2023. Despite repeated protestations from Fed officials that they are taking the higher-for-longer approach on interest rates, markets still expect cuts. AAPL .SPX YTD mountain Apple compared to the S & P 500 Only five of the 11 S & P 500 sectors are positive for the year, despite the substantial rally for the index. The net profit margin for the S & P 500 also is expected to edge lower to 11.2%.

☆ It’s the End of the Weekend as We Know It
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Anne Marie Chaker | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Once relished as the reward after five days of hard work, weekends are dwindling as employees move fluidly between work and personal time all of the time. When the pandemic began, many professionals stuck at home opened their laptops on Saturday mornings. They just never stopped: Saturdays and Sundays are starting to resemble Monday through Friday, with hours of emailing and stretches of catch-up time. Some find the spillover of work into the weekend to be invasive, with kids’ soccer games to date nights to religious services to attend. But employees acknowledge that work-filled weekends are the trade-off for hybrid office time and flexible schedules that allow for midmorning gym workouts, afternoon school pickups, dog walks and grocery-store runs.

☆ World Bank raises growth forecast for East Asia, says banking sector is sound despite global stress
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The World Bank said "the most immediate challenge" for the region is the growing division between the U.S. and China. The East Asia and Pacific region grew by 3.5% in 2022, it said. As for China's economy, the World Bank raised its full-year growth forecasts for 2023 from 4.5% to 5.1%. "Publicly available indicators show adequate overall capital levels and low non-performing loans for most countries in the region," the World Bank said. "Financial sector health is so far sound in East Asia Pacific."

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with KPMG’s Diane Swonk on state of U.S. economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with KPMG’s Diane Swonk on state of U.S. economyDiane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the spillover effects of the banking crisis in the economy, what the Fed needs to do going forward, and more.

☆ Inflation is like a marathon and we haven't hit the hardest mile yet, says Diane Swonk
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation is like a marathon and we haven't hit the hardest mile yet, says Diane SwonkDiane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the spillover effects of the banking crisis in the economy, what the Fed needs to do going forward, and more.

☆ EU agrees on retaliation to counter economic coercion
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Philip Blenkinsop | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Representatives of the European Parliament and the Council, the grouping of EU countries, reached a provisional deal on the anti-coercion instrument (ACI) early on Tuesday. EU members have accused the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump and China of using trade as a political tool. Under the ACI, EU governments would vote on whether a third country's economic measure amounted to coercion. If dialogue failed, the bloc could impose restrictions, such as higher import tariffs or limited access to EU public tenders. Some EU countries had been sceptical about the measure over concerns it could be protectionist and spark trade wars.

☆ Foundation of China's economic recovery not solid enough, party official says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The foundation of China's economic recovery is not solid enough, a senior Communist Party official said on Saturday, warning of possible spillover effects from global economic problems. "The foundation of China's economic recovery is not yet solid enough," Han said. Recent economic data has shown that China's economy picked up from COVID-19 slumps after the government abandoned its zero-COVID strategy late last year. China is confident of reaching its annual economic growth target of around 5%, Han said. Han also said China would continue to expand market access and welcome foreign investment into the world's second largest economy.

☆ Yellen's comments on bank support are worrying for potential spillover into economy, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYellen's comments on bank support are worrying for potential spillover into economy, strategist saysMonica Defend, chief strategist at Amundi Institute, discusses market nerves and the situation in European and U.S. banks.

☆ Hong Kong on watch for any 'spillover' from US regional banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

HONG KONG, March 24 (Reuters) - Hong Kong needs to watch carefully for any further "spillover" from U.S. regional banks, although the city has very little exposure to the situation in European and U.S. financial institutions, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said on Friday. "The recent events in the U.S. and Europe have very little impact on Hong Kong," Yue said. "The situation is largely stabilised, but we still need to watch whether there will be further spillover, especially to the other U.S. regional banks." Hong Kong and global banks needed to be prepared for any further volatility in the market, he added. Reporting by Donny Kwok and Anne Marie Roantree; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Christopher CushingOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ The banking crisis risks severe spillover across the financial sector and beyond, Moody's says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Moody's expects the bank crisis to be contained by the actions from policymakers. But there's still a risk it produces spillover effects that go beyond the bank sector, it added. But now, the longer that financial conditions remain tight, the odds grow that stresses expand beyond the bank sector, causing greater financial and economic damage than what Moody's anticipated. The note listed three main channels through which spillover could occur: exposure to troubled banks, increased risk aversion by market participants, and policy risk. "In our baseline forecasts, we expect policy responses to be rapid as risks emerge, thus preventing entity-level risks from becoming systemic," according to Moody's.

Economists who obsess about tightly calibrating the quantity of money in the system balk at QE as a tool. Two weeks of turmoil in mid-sized U.S. banks follow just nine months in which the Fed had been winding down its outsize balance sheet that peaked near $9 trillion during the pandemic. "Illiquidity episodes may force central banks to slow the process of reserve withdrawal. Reuters GraphicsILLIQUIDTY EPISODESThis could become a trap that prevents normalisation of the balance sheet longer term, they said. Better-measured and more forward-looking liquidity regulations, incentives for longer-duration deposits during QE bouts and rethinking stress tests were all options, they wrote.

☆ Credit Suisse bondholders prepare lawsuit after contentious $17 billion writedown
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A sign of Credit Suisse bank is seen at their headquarters in Zurich on March 20, 2023. A number of Credit Suisse bondholders said Tuesday that they were considering legal action after $17 billion of the bank's additional tier-one (AT1) bonds were wiped out as part of its emergency sale to UBS . David Benamou, chief investment officer at Axiom Alternative Investments and a holder of Credit Suisse AT1 bonds, told CNBC on Tuesday that he would be joining the lawsuit along with, he imagined, "probably most bondholders." Was Credit Suisse failing? The Credit Suisse write-down represents the largest loss ever inflicted on AT1 investors since their inception.

International researchers published a pre-print report based on their interpretation of the data on Monday, after leaks of their findings in the media last week and a meeting with the World Health Organization involving both the Chinese and international scientists. The data comprised new sequences of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and additional genomic data based on samples taken from the Huanan market in Wuhan in 2020, according to the international researchers who accessed it. "This adds to the body of evidence identifying the Huanan market as the spillover location of Sars-CoV-2 and the epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic," said the report. As of March 11, it was no longer accessible on the database, where it was found by the international scientists, their report said. "Other raw sequencing data from environmental samples from the Huanan market exist and could contain further clues," Debarre told Reuters.

☆ China keeps lending benchmarks unchanged in March, as expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the seventh straight month in March, as expected, with the economy already benefiting from policy actions taken last week as it recovers from the pandemic. On Monday, the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.65%, while the five-year LPR was unchanged at 4.30%. (Graphic: China lending rates unchanged in March here)In a Reuters poll conducted last week, all 22 participants predicted no change to either loan prime rate. “The central bank’s RRR cut was more of an emergency response to prevent overseas banking crisis from spilling over to China,” Xing said. An RRR cut nonetheless also promotes economic growth, so economists thought that last week’s made an LPR cut less likely.

☆ 'Shotgun wedding': What the UBS rescue of Credit Suisse means for global markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Axel Lehmann, chairman of Credit Suisse Group AG, left, and Colm Kelleher, chairman of UBS Group AG, during a news conference in Bern, Switzerland, on Sunday, March 19, 2023. "The accelerating loss of confidence and the escalation over the last few days have made it clear that Credit Suisse can no longer exist in its current form," Lehmann said. In equal parts "shotgun wedding" and arranged marriage, UBS agreed to buy stricken domestic rival Credit Suisse for 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.25 billion) on Sunday. The government will offer a loss guarantee of up to 9 billion Swiss francs, with UBS assuming the first 5 billion of potential losses. Shares of both UBS and Credit Suisse plunged on Monday morning, however.

Some companies have expressed concern that a ruling against Jack Daniel's would weaken their control over their brands and reputations. The toy mimics Lynchburg, Tennessee-based Jack Daniel's famous whiskey bottles with humorous dog-themed alterations - replacing "Old No. "Jack Daniel's loves dogs and appreciates a good joke as much as anyone," the company told the justices in a brief. "But Jack Daniel's likes its customers even more, and doesn't want them confused or associating its fine whiskey with dog poop." VIP Products has said a ruling favoring Jack Daniel's would make it easier for trademark owners to stifle free speech.

☆ China's c.bank warns SVB failure shows impact of rapid global rate hikes- state media
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

March 18 (Reuters) - A senior official at the People's Bank of China said on Saturday the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) showed how rapid monetary policy shifts were having spillover effects, state-owned newspaper Shanghai Securities News reported. Silicon Valley Bank's balance sheet characteristics made it more sensitive to interest rates changes and ultimately led to risk, the newspaper cited him as saying. "Based on the current situation, there is still uncertainty about whether inflation in the major developed economies will fall significantly in the short term, and continuing to maintain relatively high interest rates may also have an adverse impact on the steady operations of the banking and financial system," he said. SVB Financial Group (SIVB.O) on Friday sought protection under Chapter 11 of the U.S. bankruptcy code, days after its former unit Silicon Valley Bank was taken over by U.S. regulators. Reporting by Juby Babu in Bengaluru and Brenda Goh in Shanghai; Editing by William Mallard and Sonali PaulOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ 'The weakest links are cracking': Investors consider possible Credit Suisse contagion
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Sam Meredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"But I would very strongly recommend sticking to high-quality companies — that means strong management, strong balance sheets, strong value proposition. Even before the shock collapse of two U.S. banks last week, Credit Suisse has been beset with problems in recent years, including money laundering charges and spying allegations. Credit Suisse management said Wednesday, however, that its latest step to secure a sizable funding deal showed "decisive action" to strengthen the business. Analysts at UBS, meanwhile, said market participants were "grappling with three interrelated but different issues: bank solvency, bank liquidity, and bank profitability." "In short, we think bank solvency fears are overdone, and most banks retain strong liquidity positions," they added.

☆ Saudi National Bank says panic over Credit Suisse is 'unwarranted'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Credit Suisse 's largest shareholder Saudi National Bank said the market turmoil in shares of the Swiss lender was "unwarranted." "If you look at how the entire banking sector has dropped, unfortunately, a lot of people were just looking for excuses," Saudi National Bank chairman Ammar Al Khudairy told CNBC's Hadley Gamble on Thursday. I believe completely unwarranted, whether it be for Credit Suisse or for the entire market," he said on CNBC's "Capital Connection." His comments come hours after Credit Suisse announced that it is taking "decisive action" to borrow up to 50 billion Swiss francs ($53.68 billion). The lender's shares plunged Wednesday after a report that the Saudi bank said it could not provide Credit Suisse with any further financial assistance.

A reversal of low rates to stem rampant inflation has forced a risk rethink and exposed the vulnerability of firms such as Credit Suisse. Meanwhile, Credit Suisse still needs to push ahead with a radical restructuring it undertook in October to restore profitability. [1/2] The Credit Suisse logo adorns one of their buildings at their campus in Research Triangle Park in Morrisville, North Carolina, U.S., March 15, 2023. "Credit Suisse has been in our watch-list for a while," one senior executive told Reuters. The radical move by the Swiss central bank is aimed at banishing such doubts.

☆ What analysts are saying about Credit Suisse after 'central bank bazooka' is unleashed
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street analysts were split on whether they should buy into Credit Suisse — though they found central bank support of the troubled Swiss firm reassuring. Earlier, the central bank said it would give Credit Suisse liquidity if necessary, saying the firm is well capitalized. On Wednesday, Credit Suisse shares tumbled 13.9% after the firm's largest investor, the Saudi National Bank, said it could not give more funding, driving fears of a banking crisis in Europe. However, following the decision to borrow from the central bank, JPMorgan's Roberto Henriques reiterated an overweight rating on the firm. The analyst expects that the "central bank bazooka" will assuage investors concerned over liquidity issues and give Credit Suisse enough time to roll out a restructuring plan.

Investors had begun to doubt the ECB's commitment to another big rate hike this week after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in the U.S. sent ripples through global financial markets. The source added that formal proposals for the meeting had not yet been distributed but policymakers had seen the new quarterly projections. They were likely to push back against committing to further rate increases and say instead that any new move would depend on incoming data. The ECB can push through decisions with a simple majority though President Lagarde has been known to seek the broadest possible consensus. Investors have sharply cut their bets on further rate rises since the SVB collapse, with the deposit rate now seen peaking at 3.65% in the autumn, compared with an outlook last week of more than 4%.

☆ Inflation Means Businesses Face Insurance Woes When Rebuilding
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Richard Vanderford | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Some construction-related costs have gone up much more than the broad consumer costs measured by the consumer-price index. Persistent inflation has had spillover effects on the insurance that companies use to guard against disaster at their facilities, with higher construction costs making it harder to get coverage and harder to get paid on claims. Businesses usually insure against events such as fire and hurricanes in one-year cycles, which in a typical economic environment doesn’t pose major difficulties. If a factory would cost $40 million to build in January, it probably will cost slightly more than $40 million to replace in December, if, for example, a wildfire swept through.

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