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Indian shares fall ahead of inflation data; Adani stocks slide
  + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
BENGALURU, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Indian shares were off to a muted start on Monday, ahead of domestic retail inflation data due later in the day and U.S. inflation data due tomorrow, while the ongoing uncertainty and spillover effects from the Adani Group's market rout continued to create an overhang. Investors await India's retail inflation data for January, due today. A Reuters poll of economists showed that India's annual retail inflation rose from a 12-month low in December, but stayed within the 6% upper limit of RBI's tolerance band in January. India's market regulator is probing the group's links to some of the investors in its scrapped $2.5 billion share sale of the flagship Adani Enterprises. ($1 = 82.5250 Indian rupees)Reporting by Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman, Nivedita BhattacharjeeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
BENGALURU, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Indian shares fell on Friday, tracking a slide in global equities on fears of a looming U.S. recession, and as sentiment soured after index provider MSCI said it will cut the weightings of four Adani Group companies. Asian markets fell, with the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) sliding 1.23%. However, Indian equities have a limited downside due to significant correction and markets will likely witness sideways movement in the next few weeks in the absence of any major triggers, two analysts said. Most Adani group stocks extended their decline in Friday's session. If the MSCI cuts weightings on Adani group companies, it would have a bearing on the flows into the respective stocks," Solanki added.
MUMBAI, Feb 9 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to decline against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, weighed by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and higher oil prices. The non-deliverable forwards indicated the rupee would open around 82.60-82.62 per dollar, compared with the 82.4925 closing in the previous session. Fed officials on Wednesday said more interest rate rises are on the cards in the central bank's efforts to bring down inflation. Moving to a rate of between 5.00% and 5.25% "seems a very reasonable view," New York Fed President John Williams said. Fed fund futures are pricing in rate cuts of about 30 to 35 basis points after peaking at around 5.12% in July.
BENGALURU, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Indian shares struggled for direction on Thursday, on concerns over the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-hike trajectory, while a drop in Adani Group company stocks also dampened sentiment. Twenty-six of the Nifty 50 constituents declined, with Adani Enterprises (ADEL.NS) and Adani Ports (APSE.NS) falling 7.9% and 3.5%, respectively. Index provider MSCI said on Thursday it had determined that some Adani securities should no longer be designated as free float. read moreSeveral institutional investors and funds allocate as per the MSCI index and consider it a benchmark. If the weightage of Adani stocks gets reduced in the index following a review, it would lead to outflows and likely result in a slide in the group's stock, two analysts said.
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The central bank said that its policy stance remains focused on the withdrawal of accommodation, with four out of six members voting in favour of that position. Reuters GraphicsThe monetary policy committee (MPC), comprising three members from the central bank and three external members, raised the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) to 6.50% in a split decision. We have to remain unwavering in our commitment to bring down CPI headline inflation," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said, while announcing the committee’s decision. In a poll conducted ahead of the federal budget on Feb. 1, more than three-quarters of economists, 40 of 52, had expected the RBI to raise the repo rate by 25 bps. Das said that the inflation-adjusted, real interest rate remains below the pre-pandemic levels and liquidity remains surplus, even though it is lower than during the pandemic.
Indian shares rise ahead of RBI policy decision
  + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
Market participants will focus on the RBI's commentary on the future trajectory of rate hikes, liquidity, the country's economic outlook and whether the central bank changes its stance from "withdrawal of accommodation" to "neutral." The RBI had raised key lending rate by 35 basis points in December, after three straight 50 bps hikes, and had said its fight against inflation was not over yet. Fed's Powell said on Tuesday disinflation has started and that he expects significant declines in inflation this year, raising hopes of less aggressive rate hikes in the future. Wall Street closed higher overnight, while MSCI's gauge of the broader index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was up 0.75%. Reporting by Rama Venkat in Bengaluru; Editing by Dhanya Ann Thoppil and Eileen SorengOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Rupee eyes RBI policy decision, weighs Powell's comments
  + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
MUMBAI, Feb 8 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to open little changed to the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, with traders weighing comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and awaiting the Reserve Bank of India's policy decision. The non-deliverable forwards indicate an opening of 82.68-82.74 for the rupee , compared with 82.70 in the previous session. We doubt RBI will have a major impact on the rupee, a trader at a Mumbai based bank said. Some market participants had expected Powell to adopt a more hawkish stance after the jobs report blew past expectations. Powell was "not materially more hawkish" than he was after the recent Fed decision, ING Bank said in a note.
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Indian tycoon Gautam Adani's companies have lost over $110 billion in market value since a US short seller attack in January. Even Modi has been dragged into the kerfuffle — since both he and Adani are from the western Indian state of Gujarat. The prime minister's political opponents say that the leader favors Adani — a claim the Modi government has rejected, per Reuters. "The Hindenburg scandal is the perfect weapon for the Indian political opposition against PM Modi. On its part, the Adani Group has been troubleshooting hard.
BENGALURU, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) offloaded Indian equities worth 288.52 billion rupees ($3.51 billion) in January, the most since June, data from National Securities Depository Ltd. showed. Reuters GraphicsThe selling coincided with a slide in equity benchmarks, with Nifty 50 (.NSEI) falling 2.45% in the first month of 2023. WHAT FOREIGN INVESTORS SOLD & BOUGHTForeign investors sold the most in financials, offloading 152.04 billion rupees of shares, followed by 75.96 billion rupees in oil and gas and 27.77 bln rupees in consumer durables. Reuters GraphicsMetals was the only major sector that saw renewed interest from foreign investors, who bought 43.69 billion rupees worth of equities. ($1 = 82.3130 Indian rupees)Reporting by Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru; Editing by Dhanya Ann ThoppilOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Indranil Mukherjee | Afp | Getty ImagesShares of most Adani Group companies fell further on Monday, continuing to drop as a feud between the conglomerate and short-seller firm Hindenburg deepened. Adani Green Energy , Adani Power and Adani Total Gas fell 5% each. The Sensex is the benchmark index of the BSE — formerly the Bombay Stock Exchange — and the Nifty 50 is the flagship index of the National Stock Exchange of India. Gautam Adani, chairman of Adani Group, speaks during the Forbes CEO Summit in Singapore, on Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2022. Adani Power is included on the long-term list, while Adani Enterprises, Adani Green Energy, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Adani Transmission and Adani Total Gas are on the short-term list.
MUMBAI, Feb 6 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee was headed lower against the dollar on Monday after a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report prompted investors to bet on more Federal Reserve rate increases. The 1-month non-deliverable forward suggested that the rupee would open at 82.35-82.40 to the dollar compared with 81.8275 in the previous session. "We continue to expect two more 25 basis points fed funds rate hikes in March and May, and we continue to expect no rate cuts in 2023." Goldman Sachs's call for no rate cuts this year compares to CME futures indicating shallow rate cuts later this year. "Oil prices are a big positive for the rupee, but we doubt that will have a large impact," the trader said.
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A crisis at the Adani Group is clouding over India just as China reopens. A US short seller report alleging market manipulation and fraud at the Adani Group has caused a market rout. The Adani Group has been defending itself vigorously, but Hindenburg has also doubled down on its initial report. Still, the development has rattled investor confidence, causing a market rout with listed companies under the Adani Group losing over $100 billion in market value so far this year. But, the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite have recovered somewhat this year after China emerged from on-off pandemic lockdowns.
The rout has sparked concern that the fallout could also affect, more broadly, confidence in India. GEORGE BOUBOURAS, HEAD OF RESEARCH AT K2 ASSET MANAGEMENT, MELBOURNE (UNDERWEIGHT ON INDIA)"The Adani effect works both ways given the market cap relative to index. "To attract more capital the Indian economy needs more FTAs (free-trade agreements) and more financial market reform - a long process." Given there has not been any significant change for now for the market valuation, the market remains overall expensive in our view." Adani is a known levered name in India, so I would think most participants should not associate the same issues for other Indian assets."
Spokespeople for SEBI and Adani Group did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Among several allegations, Hindenburg accused Adani Group last week of using offshore tax havens and stock manipulation. On Tuesday, Adani Group mustered support from investors for a $2.5 billion share sale for Adani Enterprises, in what some saw as a stamp of investor confidence at a time of crisis. Reuters Graphics[1/5] Indian billionaire Gautam Adani speaks during an inauguration ceremony after the Adani Group completed the purchase of Haifa Port in Haifa port, Israel January 31, 2023. The U.S. dollar-denominated bonds of Adani Ports maturing in February 2031 led the losses, falling 3.59 cents to 67.58 cents.
Mutual funds have low exposure to Adani companies
  + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
Feb 1 (Reuters) - Mutual funds have low exposure to listed Adani Group companies, whose shares have dropped since publication of a report into the group by Hindenburg Research on Jan. 24. Mutual funds from India and elsewhere hold just 3.4% of Adani Enterprises (ADEL.NS), 2.8% of Adani Total Gas (ADAG.NS) and 3.6% of Adani Green Energy (ADNA.NS). Adani Enterprises and Adani Port (APSE.NS) are constituents of the Nifty 50, so they are automatically in portfolios of some exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and index funds. But active funds have very little exposure to Adani stocks and are largely unscathed by their fall. Among active funds, the Kotak Balanced Advantage fund , which has positions in Adani Enterprises and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, has shed just 0.5%.
BENGALURU, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Indian shares reversed earlier gains to close lower on Wednesday, led by a fall in insurance companies after the country's Union budget proposed to limit tax exemptions for insurance proceeds, while Adani Group shares tumbled. This was the worst budget day performance by Nifty 50 (.NSEI) in three years, since the 2.51% fall in 2020. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, Indian bond yields dropped after the government announced gross borrowing at 15.43 trillion rupees ($188.75 billion) for the next financial year. A Reuters poll had pegged gross borrowing at 16 trillion rupees. Indian insurance companies were top losers post budget, with HDFC Life (HDFL.NS), SBI Life Insurance (SBIL.NS), ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co (ICIR.NS), Life Insurance of India (LIFI.NS), General Insurance Corp (GENA.NS) and Max Financial (MAXI.NS) tumbling between 8.5% to 12.5%.
SINGAPORE, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Markets are "overpricing" the risk to Indian lenders from their exposure to Adani Group, which was targeted last week in a report by short-seller Hindenburg Research, Societe Generale said, adding that a sell-off in banking shares seems overdone. The allegations in the report, which the ports-to-energy conglomerate has denied, triggered a $65 billion rout in the Indian billionaire's stocks. "We think the market is overpricing the related risks, as we calculate the sector's direct exposure to the Adani group at just 0.6%," they added. Assuming no significant change in the debt structure over the past year, SocGen estimated that Indian banks' loan exposure to Adani was close to $10 billion, just 0.6% of total banking sector loans at nearly $1.5 trillion. It said Indian banks were among the "best positioned" to gain from a rebound in capital expenditure and said it expected more "favourable" valuations post the correction.
BENGALURU, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Indian shares reversed earlier gains to close lower on Wednesday, led by a fall in insurance companies after the country's Union budget proposed to limit tax exemptions for insurance proceeds, while Adani Group shares tumbled. The bluechip Nifty 50 index (.NSEI) closed down 0.26% at 17,616.30, its biggest slide on budget day since a 2.51% fall in 2020. HDFC Life (HDFL.NS), SBI Life Insurance (SBIL.NS), ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co (ICIR.NS), Life Insurance of India (LIFI.NS), General Insurance Corp (GENA.NS) and Max Financial (MAXI.NS) tumbled between 8.5% to 12.5%. Metal stocks (.NIFTYMET) closed down 4.5%, mostly dragged by the slump in Adani Enterprises. ($1 = 81.8680 Indian rupees)Reporting by Bharath Rajeswaran and Nallur Sethuraman in BengaluruOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
BENGALURU, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Indian shares reversed earlier gains to trade lower on Wednesday, led by a fall in insurance companies after the country's Union budget proposed to limit tax exemptions for insurance proceeds, while Adani Group shares tumbled. The indexes rose as much as 2% after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman raised the rebate limit for personal income tax to 700,000 rupees from 500,000 rupees. Indian insurance companies were top losers post budget, with HDFC Life (HDFL.NS), SBI Life Insurance (SBIL.NS), ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co (ICIR.NS), Life Insurance of India (LIFI.NS), General Insurance Corp (GENA.NS) and Max Financial (MAXI.NS) tumbling between 4.5% to 11%. Shares of Nifty 50-listed Adani Enterprises (ADEL.NS) plunged 15% while Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSE.NS) tumbled 10% on a broader selloff in Adani Group firms, which has now swelled to $82 billion since the Hindenburg report. Reporting by Bharath Rajeswaran and Nallur Sethuraman in Bengaluru; editing by Eileen Soreng, Savio D'Souza and Janane VenkatramanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Indian shares volatile as key Adani stocks arrest slide
  + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
BENGALURU, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Indian shares were volatile in morning trading on Monday, mirroring financials, ahead of the Union budget, while select Adani Group stocks arrested the recent slide after a short-seller attack on group companies triggered a sell-off over the previous two sessions. The Nifty 50 index (.NSEI) was down 0.36% at 17,540.65 as of 11:03 a.m. IST, while the S&P BSE Sensex (.BSESN) fell 0.29% to 59,156.62. Indian equities had tumbled to a three-month low on Friday, dragged by a short-seller attack on Adani group companies, which triggered a selloff in banks. Investors will also shift focus to India's Union budget on Feb. 1, with the government's fiscal consolidation path and borrowing calendar for fiscal 2024 as triggers. Besides the Union budget, analysts also said rate decisions by global central banks and January automobile sales data would determine the mood in the market.
Gautam Adani, chairperson of Indian conglomerate Adani Group, at the World Congress of Accountants in Mumbai on Nov. 19, 2022. Founder Gautam Adani, the richest man in Asia and once second only to Elon Musk, fell out of the world's top five richest to rank seventh on the Bloomberg's Billionaire Index. Despite small gains seen in Adani Enterprises, other affiliates of the Adani Group continued to plunge. Adani Total Gas and Adani Transmission both dropped by the daily 20% limit, Adani Green Energy fell more than 19%, and Adani Power lost 5%. India's Nifty 50 Index traded 0.6% lower on Monday and hovered at the lowest since mid-October 2022.
The Bombay Stock Exchange in Mumbai. The benchmark Nifty 50 index, which includes two Adani companies, fell to a three-month low Friday. Shares of several companies linked to India’s richest man, Gautam Adani , fell sharply Friday, losing tens of billions of dollars in market value after a U.S. short seller’s allegations of fraud at his sprawling conglomerate continued to unnerve investors. Five of the seven listed Adani Group companies ended the day 16% to 20% lower, and the other two fell by the maximum 5% permitted by India’s exchanges for their stocks. The market’s benchmark Nifty 50 index, which includes two Adani companies, fell to a three-month low.
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