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☆ Fed's Kashkari says stress in banking sector brings the U.S. closer to recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"What's unclear for us is how much of these banking stresses are leading to a widespread credit crunch. And then that credit crunch, just as you said, would then slow down the economy," Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in an interview with CBS' Face The Nation. "What's unclear for us is how much of these banking stresses are leading to a widespread credit crunch. And then that credit crunch, just as you said, would then slow down the economy," he said. "But right now, it's unclear how much of an imprint these banking stresses are going to have on the economy.

Deposits held by small U.S. banks dropped by a record $119 billion to $5.46 trillion after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on March 10, according to data released Friday by the Federal Reserve. "We expect stress in the banking system to weigh on credit growth, which will in turn reduce real GDP growth," Goldman Sachs analysts led by chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a note, referring to gross domestic product. Tighter credit conditions will exert meaningful pressure on economic activity, but the effect will not be catastrophic unless the situation escalates into "full-blown crisis of confidence," Barclays analysts wrote in a note last week. U.S. regulators announced on Monday they would backstop a deal for regional lender First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA.O) to acquire failed Silicon Valley Bank, triggering an estimated $20 billion hit to a government-run insurance fund. "Banking system stress remains high, but there are some signs of stabilization," Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) analysts wrote in a note.

☆ Dollar steady as banking crisis fears keep investors jittery
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

On Friday, the U.S. Financial Stability Oversight Council said the U.S. banking system was "sound and resilient" despite stress on some institutions. Risk-wary investors sent the yen to a seven-week high of 129.65 per dollar on Friday. "What's unclear for us is how much of these banking stresses are leading to a widespread credit crunch. That credit crunch ... would then slow down the economy," Kashkari said in comments to CCBS show Face the Nation. The Australian dollar rose 0.03% versus the greenback at $0.665.

☆ Premarket stocks: Commercial real estate is in trouble. Why you should be paying attention
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Economists are growing concerned about the $20 trillion commercial real estate (CRE) industry. After decades of thriving growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. Before the Bell spoke with Xander Snyder, senior commercial real estate economist at First American, to find out. Before the Bell: Why should retail investors pay attention to what’s going on in commercial real estate right now? So the health of the market has an impact on the larger economy, even if you’re not interested in commercial real estate for commercial real estate’s sake.

☆ Dollar steady as banking crisis fears linger
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar was steady on Monday, while the yen hovered near its seven-week peak as investors assessed moves made by authorities and regulators to rein in worries over the global banking system. Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said on Sunday the recent stress in the banking sector and the possibility of a follow-on credit crunch has brought the U.S. closer to recession. "What's unclear for us is how much of these banking stresses are leading to a widespread credit crunch. That credit crunch ... would then slow down the economy," Kashkari said in comments to CBS show Face the Nation. The Australian dollar rose 0.09% to $0.665.

☆ European markets head for higher open as the region's banks are watched closely
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

"And then that credit crunch, just as you said, would then slow down the economy." "The U.S. banking system is resilient, and it's sound," he said when asked about the stability of the banking system and its ability to control further risks seen in California and New York. "The banking system has a strong capital position and a lot of liquidity and has the full support of the Federal Reserve and other regulators standing behind it," said Kashkari. "I'm not saying that all of the stresses are behind us, I expect this process will take some time. But fundamentally, the banking system is sound," he said.

[1/3] The logo of Swiss bank Credit Suisse is seen in front of a branch office in Bern, Switzerland November 29, 2022. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File PhotoWASHINGTON/FRANKFURT, March 26 (Reuters) - Stress in the banking sector is being closely monitored for its potential to trigger a credit crunch, a U.S. Federal Reserve policymaker said on Sunday, as a European Central Bank official also flagged a possible tightening in lending. "What's unclear for us is how much of these banking stresses are leading to a widespread credit crunch. Meanwhile in Europe, the ECB believes that recent banking sector turmoil may result in lower growth and inflation rates, its vice president Luis de Guindos said. Turbulence among banking stocks on both sides of the Atlantic continued into the end of the week, despite efforts by politicians, central banks and regulators to dispel concerns.

WASHINGTON, March 26 (Reuters) - Recent stress in the banking sector and the possibility of a follow-on credit crunch brings the U.S. closer to recession, Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said Sunday in comments to CBS show Face the Nation. "It definitely brings us closer," Kashkari said. "What's unclear for us is how much of these banking stresses are leading to a widespread credit crunch. "At the same time," he continued, "we've seen that capital markets have largely been closed for the past two weeks. The Fed has rolled out an emergency lending program meant to keep other regional lenders from trouble should deposit withdrawals increase.

☆ Crypto is banned in China, but Binance employees and support volunteers tell people how to bypass the ban
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Rohan Goswami | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +18 min

The messages CNBC reviewed come from accounts identified as Binance employees or Binance-trained volunteers known as "Angels." Whatever the method, Binance's Chinese users take on a significant risk: In China, crypto exchanges have been outlawed since 2017, while crypto itself was outlawed in 2021. But Chinese customers have continued to seek ways to trade on Binance, which include using instructions provided by employees and volunteers. "'Binance does not offer a 'Binance Chinese Android app," a spokesperson said. In addition, hours after Binance responded to CNBC, messages apeared on Twitter suggesting that some customers' Binance debit cards had been frozen.

☆ Meet the brothers building massive spacecraft to leverage SpaceX’s Starship
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Michael Sheetz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

What we're finding is that, with the new launch capabilities of vehicles like Starship, there's actually an interesting opportunity to go the opposite direction," Karan Kunjur told CNBC. Los Angeles-based startup K2 Space, co-founded by CEO Karan Kunjur and CTO Neel Kunjur, is setting out to build satellite buses — the physical structure of a spacecraft that provides power, movement and more. A pair of brothers is aiming to challenge the way spacecraft are built, by going against the industry trend and designing massive satellites in a bet that towering rockets such as SpaceX's Starship are the way forward. K2 Space, a play on the brothers' surname and a nod to astronomer Nikolai Kardashev's scales of civilization, marks Karan and Neel's first venture together and fuses their previously divergent careers. For K2, the company is targeting prices that would be unheard of for satellite buses of these sizes.

☆ More rate hikes are needed, says Fed’s Mary Daly
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-05 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —Federal Reserve policymakers will need to raise interest rates higher and keep them there longer to tackle the higher prices caused by sticky inflation, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Saturday. Daly does not currently vote on Fed policy decisions but is a member of the Federal Open Market Committee and participates in policy meetings. Her speech followed a week of similar warnings from the Federal Reserve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also said Wednesday that he believes the Fed needs to raise its policy rate by half a percentage point at the next meeting. On Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that painful interest rates could go higher than expected, citing a slew of recent stronger-than-expected economic data.

The biggest question in world finance right now is whether the eye-watering rebound in borrowing rates we've seen over the past month is just another overshoot - or the new reality. G7 2-year yields soarFed, ECB and BoE 'terminal rates' riseWorld economy surprising in 2023LOSING THE PLOTSince the middle of last year, futures markets have consistently priced peak Fed rates below where Fed officials themselves were guiding. But for at least six of the past nine months, futures markets priced a lower terminal rate than the central Fed view. Five-year equivalents have risen sharply too, while long-term euro zone inflation swaps are pricing the highest rates in more than a decade. The outcome is "strongly bimodal", they said, and either a recession hits and rates are cut, or it doesn't and rates go to 6.5%.

☆ Morning Bid: Ten-four, Treasury yields soar
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The remarkable sight of 10-year Treasury yields back above 4% for the first time in almost four months is only matched by two-year yields at 15-year highs stalking 5%. Weekly jobless claims on Thursday and the latest Fed speakers take on unusual importance in such a febrile rates market. And 6% Fed rates that seemed fanciful only a month ago are now being openly discussed by banks. Despite year-on-year oil prices now tracking declines of 25%, European inflation fears are a key feature of this week's nervousness. Benchmark German 10-year bond yields soared to 11-year highs at 2.77%.

☆ Morning Bid: EU inflation risks loom large for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

March 2 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Asian markets had thought to bask in the glow from Wednesday's radiant PMI data from China, and the region in general. Markets are now leaning toward a peak of 5.50%-5.75%, compared with 5.0% just a month ago. That leaves a lot riding on what EU (HICP) inflation figures for February show later on Thursday. Median forecasts are for an annual figure of 8.2%, but risks are on the upside following the surprises from France, Spain and Germany.

☆ Dollar finds footing as focus turns to Europe inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar lost 0.9% on the euro on Wednesday, its sharpest drop in a month. It was about 0.2% firmer on the euro on Thursday, with the common currency at $1.0649 in Asia trade ahead of inflation data due at 1000 GMT. The New Zealand dollar which rose 1.2% on Wednesday, fell 0.4% on Thursday to $0.6230. China's yuan settled back to 6.8928 to the dollar after logging its biggest jump of 2023 on Wednesday. Besides European inflation, euro zone employment and central bank minutes are due later in the day, as is U.S. jobless claims data.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Markets reeled as Fed officials confirmed commitment to high interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Hawkish sentiment from Federal Reserve officials weighed on stocks and buoyed Treasury yields, giving markets a disappointing start to March. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Wednesday he's "open-minded" about raising interest rates by either 25 or 50 basis points. Kashkari, who is a voting member on the Federal Open Market Committee, added he might hike rates even further. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Asian stocks rally sputters as China pulls back, higher U.S. yields weigh
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. futures erased earlier gains, with the S&P 500 stock futures falling 0.5% and Nasdaq futures down 0.7%. Tesla shares (TSLA.O) slumped 5.5% in after-hour trading, after the Tesla Investor Day failed to excite investors. On Thursday, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hit a fresh four-month high of 4.0160%, after hitting 4% overnight. In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar index, measuring the greenback's value against a basket of major peers, gained 0.2% to 104.6. Oil prices were largely steady on Thursday, having risen by 1% the previous day due to optimism over China's recovery.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Higher manufacturing prices gave markets a bad start to March
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

☆ Morning Bid: Markets March on China boomlet
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

And after a bruising setback for stocks and bonds in February, investors now have to assess whether the unfolding economic rebound is sustainable given the eye-watering revision that it's forcing in inflation and interest rate expectations. This is emboldening both the hawks at the European Central Bank and markets keen to re-price the interest rate horizon. Money markets have already moved beyond that and now price peak ECB rates at year-end almost 150 bps higher at 3.90%. Even though U.S. consumer confidence and housing data on Tuesday questioned some of the reheating narrative, markets now assume peak Federal Reserve rates will be as high as 5.42% by July. And homebuilder Persimmon (PSN.L) dropped almost 10% after it warned the housing slowdown and higher mortgage rates would hit profit and home-building targets.

☆ Futures rise in positive start to March
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures up: Dow 0.22%, S&P 0.31%, Nasdaq 0.50%March 1 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures rose on Wednesday, putting Wall Street on course for a positive start to March, as strong Chinese manufacturing data outweighed concerns that the Federal Reserve's policies will remain restrictive for longer. Traders are pricing in expectations that the Fed will raise rates in coming months to a 5.25%-5.50% range, from the current 4.50%-4.75% range. That's slightly higher than where Fed policymakers in December signaled they would need to take the policy rate. ET, Dow e-minis were up 71 points, or 0.22%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 12.25 points, or 0.31%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 60 points, or 0.5%. The electric carmaker is readying a production revamp of its top-selling Model Y, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the plan.

Kashkari, a voter on Fed rate policy this year, said he had not made a final call yet on a new projection for the target federal funds rate. But "at this point...I lean towards continuing to raise further," beyond the 5.4% level that he previously thought would be adequate to lower inflation. Fed officials will submit new projections at a meeting in three weeks, and analysts and investors expect the median rate seen by officials for the end of 2023 will move perhaps a quarter point higher than the 5.1% anticipated as of December. The federal funds rate is currently set in a range from 4.5% to 4.75% after a rapid set of rate increases last year lifted it from a near zero level. The jump in inflation in January, however, has not prompted a universal call to respond.

The yield on two-year Treasury notes , which closely tracks short-term interest rate expectations, rose to 4.9%, its highest level since 2007. "You also got a tick up in the ISM prices paid, which means that prices generally are rising now for manufacturing. That's higher than where Fed policymakers in December signaled they would need to raise the policy rate. Money market traders see an about 80% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike later this month, but the odds of a bigger 50 bps rate hike have grown recently. The main U.S. benchmarks ended February with losses as investors braced for the possibility that the Fed will hike rates more than initially thought on signs of resilience in the economy.

☆ Analysis: With record diversity on their boards, Fed bank chiefs see lower chances of policy error
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Fed bank directors generally stay out of the limelight, but many U.S. central bankers view them as a critical resource. "I think the probabilities are far higher of achieving that gentle transition, that smoother transition," San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Reuters in an interview. This year, of the 108 spots on the 12 Fed bank boards, 44% are filled by women, and 41% by people of color, a review of the data shows. Still, a majority of the Fed's economists are white men, as are its top two monetary policymakers: Powell and New York Fed President John Williams. Hispanics and Latinos, Menendez notes, are a fast-growing segment of the population but are underrepresented at the Fed at all levels, including on Fed bank boards.

The richest Black mothers and their babies are twice as likely to die as the richest white mothers and their babies. Yet there is one group that doesn’t gain the same protection from being rich, the study finds: Black mothers and babies. The researchers found that maternal mortality rates were just as high among the highest-income Black women as among low-income white women. The richest Black women have infant mortality rates at about the same level as the poorest white women. Generally, rates for Hispanic mothers and Asian mothers track more closely with those of white mothers than Black mothers.

☆ Premarket stocks: Welcome to the 'rolling recession' economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Yet US manufacturing has likely already contracted into a recession, housing sales have plummeted, tech layoffs keep coming and corporate earnings growth is souring. “We continue to think the economy will suffer from rolling recessions, evidenced by the fact that corporate earnings growth is now entering its downturn,” wrote Sonders in a note on Wednesday. For five straight weeks, the bank’s clients have been big buyers of individual stocks and sellers of ETFs, she wrote. Disney revenue in the quarter rose 8% to $23.5 billion, edging past estimates of $23.4 billion from analysts surveyed by Refinitiv. The company reported revenue of $8.6 billion for the quarter, beating Wall Street’s estimates and marking a 49% increase from the prior year.

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