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Yields on Treasury bonds, meanwhile, increased as investors discounted the likelihood that the Fed would shy away from further rate increases. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is running at almost three times the central bank's target. Important aspects of both reports, however, moved in the favor of a more tempered Fed policy. Wage growth continued to slow in February, and much of the jump in prices last month was driven by the cost of shelter, an area where Fed officials feel inflation will soon prove to be slowing. "The Fed can support liquidity in the banking system and tighten monetary policy at the same time," Sweet said.

☆ The market is facing new headwinds with the collapse of SVB — but there is a silver lining
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

That's still well above the Fed's inflation target of roughly 2%, but indicates a continued easing of rising prices. Morgan Stanley in a research note Tuesday highlighted that home prices declined for six consecutive months, as of Dec. 2022, according to the Case-Shiller national home price index. And perhaps even more telling, Morgan Stanley highlighted a 38% decline in mortgage applications in February compared with a year ago. To be clear, the market is expecting the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting next week. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

By May the benchmark rate is seen rising further to a range of 5.00%-5.25%. Until late last week financial markets had been pricing in a bigger half-point rate hike to stem persistently high inflation. Meanwhile the Labor Department's inflation report showed a 6% rise in the consumer price index last month from a year earlier. "The recent string of regional bank failures likely closed the door on a 50 (basis point) rate hike, but today's data suggests that the Fed is going to remain on-track for a 25 (basis point) hike on March 22." Fed policymakers will publish their own rate path expectations next week.

☆ US job growth beats expectations in February; wages rise moderately
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 311,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department's closely watched employment report showed on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast job growth of 205,000. The labor market has remained tight, with first-time applications for unemployment benefits staying very low despite high-profile layoffs in the technology industry. Households' perceptions of the labor market were also quite upbeat last month. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6% in February from 3.4% in January, which was the lowest since May 1969.

☆ US reports strong job growth in February; wage gains slow
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

They say the economy needs to create 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. The labor market has remained tight, with first-time applications for unemployment benefits staying extremely low despite high-profile layoffs in the technology industry. Households' perceptions of the labor market were also quite upbeat last month. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6% in February from 3.4% in January, which was the lowest since May 1969. This broader measure of unemployment rose to 6.8% in February.

☆ Slower, but still solid US job growth expected in February
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is also expected to show wage gains maintaining their upward trend, underscoring a persistently tight jobs market. Estimates for February payrolls growth ranged from as low as 78,000 to as high as 325,000. "This would indicate the anticipated normalization in the labor market is taking longer than expected," said Jan Groen, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities in New York. There's locational and skills mismatches, which basically means the labor market is not functioning efficiently," said Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Boston College. The Fed has to be careful about how they interpret what's going on in the labor market."

The U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6% in February as more workers entered the labor force, and wage gains slowed to 0.2% from 0.3% in January, the Labor Department's report showed. "This report screams soft landing and looks to be a pretty good one for the Fed," said Omair Sharif of Inflation Insights. After the report, futures tied to the Fed policy rate pointed to a quarter-point rate hike as the most likely outcome of the central bank's meeting this month. Traders also slashed expectations for the Fed to ultimately raise rates any higher than 5.5%. "However, the February CPI report will also weigh heavily in the Fed’s deliberations of whether to raise rates 25bps or 50bps.

☆ Jim Cramer's Investing Club meeting Thursday: Jobs report, Danaher, Honeywell
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Look to jobs report Stocks edged up in midmorning trading Thursday, helped by softer bond yields. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Everyone's holding their breath for Friday's jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell called the jobs market "extremely tight." First, the U.S. Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS. While it indicated that job openings fell in December, the absolute number's still uncomfortably high (for economists worried about inflation, at least): there were 1.9 job openings per available worker.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Everyone's anxious about Friday's jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. At a Congressional hearing yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell called the jobs market "extremely tight." First, the U.S. Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS. While it indicated that job openings fell in December, the absolute number's still uncomfortably high (for economists worried about inflation, at least): there were 1.9 job openings per available worker.

☆ Nobel laureate Paul Krugman is baffled again - he can't tell if the job market is cooling or not and doubts the Fed's next move matters much
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Nobel Prize-winning economist said he can't gauge whether the labor market is tight or not. Meanwhile, Krugman doubts the Fed's next interest-rate move to cool a hot economy will matter much. So the labor market either isn't cooling or it is," the Prize-winning economist said in a Wednesday tweet. A hot labor market tends to fuel inflation, as it puts upward pressure on wage growth. What matters are market expectations about future Fed policy, which will largely be driven by data," Krugman said.

☆ Biden is once again pushing to give all US workers paid parental leave— and he wants their kids to have free universal preschool, too
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Biden is pushing for paid family and medical leave in his budget proposal unveiled on Thursday. "Policies such as paid leave and childcare will bring more workers into the labor force and improve productivity," Cecilia Rouse, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said. Biden has long supported paid family and medical leave, along with investments in childcare, and he has urged Congress to implement measures that would bolster those programs. "For middle- and low-income workers in particular, access to paid family and medical leave is all too rare, but even the highest wage workers are more likely than not to be without paid family leave," they wrote in their letter. The last time the Biden administration tried to push through paid leave — even at just four weeks — it was torpedoed by Republicans and one Democrat.

☆ U.S. private payrolls increase in February -ADP
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, March 8 (Reuters) - U.S. private payrolls increased more than expected in February, pointing to continued labor market strength. Private employment increased by 242,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment report showed on Wednesday. It has not been a reliable gauge in forecasting private payrolls in the BLS employment report. The ADP initially reported 106,000 private jobs were created in January, a fraction of the 443,000 surge in private payrolls estimated by the BLS. According to a Reuters survey of economists, private payrolls likely increased by 213,000 jobs in February.

"We have two or three more very important data releases to analyze before the time of the FOMC meeting," Powell told the Senate Banking panel Tuesday. "Powell didn’t open the door to a 50-basis-point rate hike without intending to follow through with that outcome at the March FOMC meeting," Duy said. The Fed's rate hikes are designed to slow demand and spending by consumers and businesses. The survey will next publish on the Friday before the Fed meeting, and could again prove key. If inflation continues, Powell said Tuesday, at some point both individuals and businesses "will come to expect high inflation, and that will make it more self-perpetuating."

☆ Job openings declined in January but still far outnumber available workers
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Job openings declined slightly in January but still far outnumber available workers as the labor picture remains tight, according to data released Wednesday. The Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed there are 10.824 million openings, down some 410,000 from December, the Labor Department reported. That equates to 1.9 job openings per available worker. Federal Reserve officials watch the JOLTS report closely as they formulate monetary policy. The JOLTS report showed that hiring was brisk for the month, with employers bringing on 6.37 million workers, the highest total since August.

"If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes," Powell said. Republicans focused on whether energy policy was restricting supply and keeping prices higher than needed, and whether restrained federal spending could help the Fed's cause. As of December, officials saw that rate rising to a peak of around 5.1%, a level investors expect may move at least half a percentage point higher now. With a 50-basis-point rate hike now in play, Brown said a strong monthly jobs report on Friday would likely lead to "calls for a 6% terminal rate," nearly a percentage point higher than Fed officials had projected as of December. How much remains unclear, but Powell said the focus will remain more squarely on how inflation behaves.

"If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes," Powell said. The Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate is currently in the 4.50%-4.75% range. Senator Sherrod Brown, the Democratic chair of the committee, said the Fed's rate hikes ignored what he viewed as a chief cause of inflation - high corporate profits. "To restore price stability, we will need to see lower inflation in this sector, and there will very likely be some softening in labor market conditions," Powell said. Powell's last monetary policy report to Congress was in June, which was early in what became the most aggressive cycle of Fed rate increases since the 1980s.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was flat after U.S. stocks ended the previous session with mild gains. The two-year yield , which rises with traders' expectations of higher Fed fund rates, touched 4.8945% compared with a U.S. close of 4.894%. Australian shares (.AXJO) were 0.1% lower after being down 0.3% earlier in the session, while Japan's Nikkei stock index (.N225) rose 0.5%. "In the next couple of days the congressional testimony will be critical for markets. Investors have repriced what they think the Fed will do with interest rates in March and into the second quarter," said Tai Hui, JPMorgan Asset Management's chief Asian market strategist.

☆ Jim Cramer's Investing Club meeting Tuesday: Stocks fall, Meta, Salesforce
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Watch Meta Club holding Meta Platforms (META) is planning thousands of additional layoffs as early as this week, Bloomberg reported late Monday. Stick with Salesforce Salesforce (CRM) on Tuesday announced the launch of its own generative artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot to be incorporated into its enterprise software offerings. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .

☆ Wall St pares gains, Treasury yields turn higher ahead of Powell testimony
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/4] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., February 27, 2023. All three major U.S. stock indexes were modestly higher, although well off session highs, Treasury yields reversed an earlier dip and the dollar pared its losses in afternoon trading. Emerging market stocks rose 0.57%. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields were last nominally higher on the day, bouncing back from initial decline. The dollar lost ground against a basket of world currencies ahead of Powell's testimony and the jobs data.

☆ Wall Street gains, Treasury yields soften ahead of Powell testimony
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/4] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, March 3, 2023. All three major U.S. stock indexes gained ground on Monday, appearing to extend last week's rally, with lower Treasury yields boosting interest rate-sensitive megacap stocks. European shares reversed earlier gains and were last essentially unchanged after modest China growth estimates suggested a possible dampening of demand for European goods. Emerging market stocks rose 0.64%. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields continued to ease as dampening demand supported hopes that the Fed is approaching the end of its rate-hike phase.

☆ This week's jobs report will help determine if this nascent March rally has legs
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-05 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Where the market heads next will once again depend on inflation data — especially this week's highly anticipated jobs report. No portfolio companies report earnings next week. However, with mortgage rates bouncing back in recent weeks, it remains to be seen if the strong monthly report will see any follow up. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

☆ Jim Cramer's Investing Club meeting Thursday: Oversold market, Salesforce, Costco
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Christopher Alessi | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Watch Costco Club holding Costco Wholesale (COST) is set to report fiscal second-quarter results Thursday after the closing bell. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

☆ A year later, the Fed still has a long way to go in the fight against inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The rate hikes appeared to have quelled some of the inflation surge that inspired the policy tightening. Indeed, Fed officials for months stuck to the narrative that inflation was "transitory" and would abate on its own. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently insisted that he and his colleagues are taking "forceful steps" now to bring down inflation. The index most recently showed an annual inflation rate of 6.4%, down from a peak around 9% in the summer of 2022. Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst thinks the Fed could tame key inflation metrics to around 4% by the end of this year.

☆ Biden aims billions in taxpayer money at companies' labor, supply practices
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"What Biden and his advisers are doing is solving problems that exist in the economy. They are pushing forward an agenda aimed at building things in America again ... and taking on corporate power," he said. A Department of Energy provision in the act requires companies to focus on workforce training, ensure diversity and engage "environmental justice" communities in planning. Key provisions on universal child care and better working conditions for child care workers were stripped out of bills last year. Julie Su, just tapped to be labor secretary, launched a campaign against "wage theft" by employers as a labor activist.

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