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☆ A Key Inflation Measure Cooled in December
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

A measure of inflation closely watched by the Federal Reserve continued to cool in December, the latest sign that price increases are coming back under control even as growth remains solid and the labor market healthy. In particularly positive news, a key gauge of price increases dipped below 3 percent for the first time since early 2021. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index picked up 2.6 percent last month compared to a year earlier. Fed officials aim for 2 percent price increases, so today’s inflation remains elevated. In their latest economic projections, central bankers predicted that inflation would cool to 2.4 percent by the end of the year.

Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ How we're rendering the Fed a non-factor in our investment decisions in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

With Wednesday's hot purchasing managers' numbers that demonstrate the strength of both the service and manufacturing portions of the economy, it's even more doubtful that we will get rate cuts soon. After all, inflation is the most ruinous force against us, and we must be sure it does not come back. We don't want rate cuts because the economy is weak. Additionally, rate cuts foment inflation, and that won't help the stock market, either. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

Persons: let's, it's, DR, FactSet, —, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Squawk, Virginia Sherwood Organizations: Federal, White, Silicon Valley Bank, Dupont, Texas, Nvidia, Netflix, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: U.S, Silicon

☆ Dollar treads water ahead of U.S. GDP; ECB meeting in spotlight
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Traders have been consolidating positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week. The report is, however, likely to show that the U.S. avoided a recession in 2023 and is expected to show moderating inflation in the last quarter, stoking expectations of rate cuts sometime in the first half of 2024. Other U.S. data this week includes the Fed's favourite gauge of inflation - the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data - on Friday. The move from the central bank comes after a Bloomberg report earlier this week of a rescue package worth $278 billion to help stabilise the battered stock markets. The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar struggled to sustain a China-inspired rally earlier this week.

Persons: Kieran Williams, Jerome Powell, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Central Bank, Traders, U.S, Asia FX, InTouch, ECB, Wednesday, Bloomberg, Australian, New Zealand, Aussie, Bank of, Bank of Japan Locations: Asia, U.S, China

☆ Microsoft's $3 trillion market cap milestone is the latest in a string of wins for Big Tech's elder statesman
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at Microsoft notching another big win by briefly reaching a $3 trillion valuation. It's an impressive run for a company often viewed as the least sexy in Big Tech. 3 things in marketsInstagram/grandmabetty33The stock market is looking gray, and that's a bad thing. A famed economist said you shouldn't confuse a booming stock market with a strong economy. Nobel economist Paul Krugman recently wrote about how consumers feel too optimistic about the economy due to the current stock market rally.

Persons: —, Ethan Miller, Phil Rosen, OpenAI, Ashley Stewart, Tim Matsui, Ashley, That's, it's, It'll, aren't, We're, Taylor, Paul Krugman, Patrick Pleul, Mark Zuckerberg, Marc Benioff chatted, Brad Barket, Jon Stewart, Stewart, Trevor Noah, Donald Trump, Jean Carroll's Organizations: Service, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Big, Rosenberg Research, AP Tesla, EV, Microsoft Windows, Walmart, Comedy Central, Bank of America, Intel, Visa, Southwest Airlines, Comcast Locations: Big Tech

☆ The Fed itself is the biggest risk to a soft landing for the US economy, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed is the biggest risk to a soft landing for the economy, former Fed official Claudia Sahm said. The Fed is the biggest risk to the soft landing." Instead, an "unnecessary" recession created by elevated interest rates would be far worse. Advertisement"The idea that the worst thing that the Fed can do is cut and then raise is dangerous," she wrote. For the Fed to reverse its rate cuts wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, Sahm said.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, —, Chris Waller, Raphael Bostic, Sahm, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Jerome Powell, that's Organizations: Service, Atlanta Fed, Fed

☆ A year ago most economists expected a recession. Now 91% say otherwise.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThe vast majority of economists see a recession as unlikely in the next year, according to the latest survey from the National Association of Business Economics. New results out Monday showed 91% now assign a probability of 50% or less for a slowdown in the next 12 months. AdvertisementOnly 9% of respondents reported a recession being more likely than not, down from 18% in the previous survey. Since 1968, the recession indicator has gone eight for eight in preceding a recession.

Persons: —, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, Campbell Harvey Organizations: Service, National Association of Business Economics, Business, The University of, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department

☆ Here's what I'm watching to see where the market goes next after the S&P 500 record close
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-21 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

We don't know what we want. The rails are too significant to ignore even as the bond market seems to rely, I would say, wrongly, on the broader data. I think it's a factor of big money flows that aren't sensitive to what moves rates and don't mind being wrong. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: Tesla, ServiceNow, Bill McDermott, Russell, —, Abbott, Gamble, Jon Moeller, Heels, what's, hasn't, Steve Jobs, Ray, Kimberly, Clark, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Virginia Sherwood Organizations: Union Pacific, CSX, Norfolk Southern, Federal Reserve, Silicon Valley Bank, Microsoft, Nvidia tacking, Google, Apple, Nvidia, JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, Abbott Laboratories, Investing, JPMorgan, Novartis, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Procter, Super, YouTube, Netflix, Vision, Pro, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, NYSE Locations: U.S, Silicon, San Francisco, Amgen, China

☆ European stocks head for higher open as Davos draws to close; UK retail sales drop
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, comes to a close after drawing a raft of business leaders, politicians, central bankers and campaigners. U.K. retail sales disappointed Friday, coming down by 3.2% in December, significantly more than expected. It was the largest monthly fall since January 2021, when pandemic measures restricted sales, the Office for National Statistics said. The technology sector drove a solid rally Thursday, after Bank of America analysts upgraded their Apple rating to "buy." Asia-Pacific stocks were also higher, with TSMC surging and Japanese inflation cooling to its lowest level since June 2022.

Persons: Read Organizations: Economic, European Central Bank, National Statistics, U.S, Congress, Bank of America Locations: Davos, Switzerland, Asia, Pacific

☆ Bank credit is shrinking for the first time since the Great Recession – and that's a red flag for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The last one was during the Great Recession, brought about by the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The extended slump in bank lending comes as many Wall Street experts continue to project a pessimistic outlook for the economy, despite the surprisingly upbeat trend seen in 2023. Recession warningsThe US economy defied forecasters' gloomy predictions by dodging a recession last year, with strong consumer spending helping to prop up growth. AdvertisementBut not everyone on Wall Street is so cheerful. It might be a mild recession or a heavy recession," he added, noting it's possible that the downturn bites in 2024.

Persons: —, Jeffrey Gundlach, Henry Kravis, David Rosenberg, Steve Hanke, Gary Shilling, Continentale, Janet Yellen, haven't, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Hanke, Rosenberg, it'd Organizations: Service, Business, Governors, Federal, Wall, Louis Federal Reserve, Bank, Federal Reserve, Philadelphia Fed, JPMorgan, Fox Business Locations: Bank, Ukraine, Gaza

☆ Dollar headed for second weekly gain on tempered rates outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Dollar bills and Japanese currency Yen lying on a table on August 03, 2016 in Berlin, Germany. The dollar headed for a second weekly gain in a row on Friday on signs of resilience in the U.S. economy and caution about rate cuts from central bankers. Weekly gains on the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars of 1.7% and 2.1% are set to be the largest since November and June respectively. Rabobank revised its one-month forecast for dollar/yen to 148 from 144, expecting further unwinding of bets on the pace of U.S. rate cuts to support the dollar. An unexpected rise in British inflation also drove a sharp pullback in bets on Bank of England interest rate cuts, and leant support to sterling.

Persons: Jane Foley, Christopher Waller, Bitcoin Organizations: New, Bank of Japan, Rabobank, Federal, Bank of Locations: Berlin, Germany, U.S, New Zealand, Asia, Europe, Bank of England

☆ Gold heads for worst weekly fall in six as rate-cut view tempers
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices have increased since the Ukraine War but have soared to record highs since the start of the Hamas-Israel war. Other factors are the weakening US dollar and expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Spot gold was little changed at $2,022.07 per ounce by 0404 GMT, but has fallen 1.3% so far in the week. Markets were betting on 139 basis points (bps) of Fed rate cuts this year, down from 150 bps a week earlier, according to LSEG's interest rate probability app, IRPR. The odds of a Fed rate cut in March have dropped to 54% from about 71% last week, according to IRPR.

Persons: Bullion, Hugo Pascal, Pascal, Raphael Bostic Organizations: Federal Reserve, hawkish Fed, U.S, Atlanta Federal Reserve Locations: Birmingham, England, Ukraine, Israel, InProved, IRPR

The idea of using Russia's frozen assets is gaining new traction lately as continued allied funding for Ukraine becomes more uncertain and the U.S. Congress is in a stalemate over providing more support. Bipartisan legislation circulating in Washington called the Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity for Ukrainians Act would use assets confiscated from the Russian Central Bank and other sovereign assets for Ukraine. Belgium, which is holding the rotating presidency of the European Union bloc for the next six months, is now leading the talks on whether to seize Russia's assets. Belgium is also the country where most frozen Russian assets under sanctions are being held. Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, cautioned that if Ukraine's immediate needs aren't met, “no amount of seized Russian assets is unfortunately going to compensate for what may happen."

Persons: — It's, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, “ Putin, ”, ” Biden, Penny Pritzker, “, Nicholas Mulder, Vladimir Putin, Shalanda Young, ” Young, ” Sergey Aleksashenko, Treasuries —, Konstantin Malofeyev, Alexander De Croo, De Croo, Maria Snegovaya, aren't, Ellen Knickmeyer, Lisa Mascaro, Seung Min Kim, Zeke Miller, Aamer, Sam Petrequin, Jamey Keaton Organizations: WASHINGTON, Russian Central Bank, U.S ., U.S, ., ”, Ukraine, Russia, Cornell University, Washington, Russia's Central Bank, White, Management, Russian Central Banker, Russian, Justice Department, State Department, European Union, Belgian, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Associated Press Locations: United States, Ukraine, Davos, Switzerland, Ukrainian, Washington, “, America, Russia, Russian, U.S, China, Frankfurt, Belgium, Brussels

☆ Oil prices fall as stronger dollar offsets Red Sea disruptions risks
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices fell on Wednesday as a stronger U.S. dollar limited demand for greenback-denominated crude, though the rising risks of supply disruptions amid the intensifying conflict in the Red Sea curbed the losses. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures , or WTI, fell 43 cents, or 0.59%, to $71.97 a barrel. The stronger dollar reduces demand for dollar-denominated oil for buyers paying in other currencies. British oil major Shell suspended shipments through the Red Sea after the U.S. and UK strikes began, but U.S. producer Chevron is maintaining its Red Sea routes. "While oil benchmarks may not reflect the Red Sea attacks, the realized price for oil and oil products for consumers has increased given the disruption to trade flows through the Red Sea and Suez Canal," Vivek Dhar, director of mining and energy commodities strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a note.

Persons: Brent, WTI, Daniel Hynes, Vivek Dhar Organizations: greenback, Global, Brent, . West Texas, U.S, U.S . Federal Reserve, ANZ Bank, Shell, Chevron, Commonwealth Bank of Australia Locations: U.S, Iran, Yemen, Red, Suez

☆ UBS raises S&P 500 target for 2024, sees nearly 8% gain from here
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 is in for yet another strong year, according to UBS. The firm lifted its year-end target on the S & P 500 from 4,850 to 5,150, representing 7.7% upside for the benchmark stock index from Friday's close. The S & P 500 ended last week at 4,783.83. This year's more dovish Federal Reserve policy supports higher valuations, Golub said, upping his 2024 earnings-per-share estimate on the S & P 500 by $10 to $235. "While the S & P 500 advanced throughout 2023, leadership has become more pro-cyclical over the past 3 months, an indication of investor optimism toward the economy," Golub said.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, Golub, upping Organizations: UBS, Federal, Technology

☆ Inflation is stuck and the Fed can't lower prices without damaging the economy, top economist Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation looks to be stuck above the Fed's target rate, top economist Mohamed El-Erian said. If the Fed lowers inflation to 2% too quickly, it risks "crushing" the economy, El-Erian has warned. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve's inflation fight has hit a wall, and central bankers can't lower prices in the economy any further without causing damage, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. El-Erian warned last year that inflation would likely get stuck around the 3%-4% mark, thanks to persistent pressures in the economy that will push prices higher, he said. Other commentators on Wall Street have warned of the possibility of resurgent inflation as price pressures in the economy linger.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, — Organizations: Service, Allianz, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg, CPI, stoke, El, New York Fed, Cleveland Fed Locations: El, That's, Red

☆ Former Chinese central banker took ‘extraordinarily massive’ bribes, state media says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Michelle Toh | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Hong Kong CNN —Fan Yifei, a disgraced former Chinese central banker, has admitted making a “huge mistake” in comments aired as part of a documentary by state broadcaster CCTV that alleges he accepted massive bribes from the beginning of his tenure. It described how he had received “extraordinarily massive” payments from executives of various companies in exchange for favors after taking up the PBOC’s second-highest position. “I wanted to possess great power, and at the same time, to be rich,” Fan said in the documentary. “I made a huge mistake.”According to CCTV, Fan accepted payments from businesspeople through his brother’s investment company. In addition to Fan’s case, the CCTV documentary exposed graft at a state-owned energy investment group and at the highest levels of Chinese sport.

Persons: Fan, Xi Jinping, “, Qian Long, Liu Liange, Wang Bin, Tang Shuangning, Tang, Wang Yongsheng, Wang, Li, China’s Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, People’s Bank of China’s, Central Commission, Xinhua, Communist Party, National Supervisory Commission, of China, China Life Insurance, China Everbright, China Development Bank, China Daily, soccer team, China’s Twitter Locations: China, Hong Kong, Xinhua, Weibo

☆ Inflation is down sharply, but getting to exactly 2% will be tough
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-10 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, measured 2.6% annually in November. So, getting that number down to the Fed’s 2% target should happen in no time, right? That’s because much of the run-up in inflation came from pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions and unusual spikes in demand. The reason is that as inflation cools more, the remaining components that work to keep inflation above the Fed’s target are increasingly “sticky,” meaning they’re the least responsive to changes in market conditions. And it’s so far, so good.”That said, though it’s not the Fed’s go-to inflation gauge, Thursday’s CPI report showed that the road to 2% could come with more bumps.

Persons: ”, John Cochrane, Jerome Powell, Gregory Daco, That’s, Powell, Cochrane, “, ” Paul Donovan, ” Powell, I’d, it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Hoover Institute, “, University of Chicago, CNN, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: New York, EY

☆ Euro zone inflation rebounds in December, fueling rate-cut debates
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-05 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Headline inflation in the euro zone jumped to 2.9% in December, up from 2.4% the previous month, though core inflation continued to ease, according to data released Friday by Eurostat. Core inflation — which doesn't include energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices — cooled to 3.4% last month from 3.6% in November. An overall rise was expected due to base effects from the energy market, as price falls moderate. Energy prices were down 6.7% year on year in December, versus a 11.5% drop in November. The headline inflation rise "is essentially a technicality," Michael Field, European market strategist at Morningstar, said in a note.

Persons: Michael Field Organizations: Eurostat, Energy, European, Morningstar

Here are 6 signals investment bankers are watching as they pray for an M&A rebound in 2024. By contrast, activity from private equity firms "was off almost 40%," he said. In 2021, private equity firms transacted $1.5 trillion across 2,869 deals, according to Dealogic. Last year, private equity M&A made up 40% of total activity, according to Goldman Sachs. AI companies, many of which are only now being formed, need to mature, and the winners and losers need to come into focus, bankers said.

Persons: Wall, LSEG, Goldman Sachs, Vito Sperduto, Sperduto, we've, Stephan Feldgoise, Hess, Anthony J, Carfang, Cash, Goldman, Goldman's Feldgoise, Feldgoise, Mark Sorrell, I'm, Harold M, Lambert, Jerome Powell, Greg McBride, McBride, Jonathan Gray, dealmaking, Gray, Rob Chisholm, Chisholm Organizations: Fed, London Stock Exchange, Business, RBC Capital Markets, Conference Board, Conference, Federal, Goldman, Federal Reserve, Private, Bankers, DOJ, FTC, Federal Reserve Board, Bankrate, of Labor Statistics, Cisco, LSEG, Qatalyst Partners, Citi, & $ Locations: LSEG, Ukraine

Here's the state of play globally for crypto regulation and enforcement in 2023 — and a look at what to expect in 2024. "However, much of their work has involved providing guidance to the industry through enforcement actions," continued Levin. Crypto market participants nevertheless hope that the spate of legal challenges brought to crypto companies in 2023 will bring clarity in the form of new regulations. The U.S.'s dominant role in global finance and its focus on consumer protection plays a crucial role in its leading position in crypto regulation enforcement. The region has been increasingly warming to crypto assets, despite a broader anti-crypto push from China, which banned bitcoin trading and mining in 2021.

Persons: Al Drago, Binance, Sam Bankman, Renato Mariotti, Mariotti, Richard Levin, Nelson Mullins Riley, Levin, ada, Changpeng Zhao, Damian Williams, Brian Armstrong, Armstrong, Alyse Killeen, Scarborough's Levin, FinCEN, Killeen, Diem, USDC, Braden Perry, it's, Kennyhertz Perry, Perry, Bafin Organizations: U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Bloomberg, Getty, Regulators, Securities and Exchange Commission, U.S, Alameda Research, U.S . Justice Department's Securities, Commodities, CNBC, Capitol, SEC, Futures Trading Commission, Department of Justice, Scarborough, CFTC, Protocol Labs, Southern, of, Stillmark, Meta, Visa, Mastercard, U.S ., European, IRS, European Union, EU, France's Financial Markets Authority, AMF, Treasury, Monetary Authority of, Three Arrows, Terra Labs, Terra, Hong Kong Securities, Futures Commission, SFC, OSL Locations: Washington, Europe, Asia, U.S, Alameda, of New York, European, Crypto, Ireland, Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Singapore, Dubai, Hong Kong, Monetary Authority of Singapore, China, East, Africa

☆ Job data suggests ‘soft landing’ is increasingly likely, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Luis Alvarez | Digitalvision | Getty ImagesThe U.S. economy inched closer to a so-called "soft landing" after a new batch of labor data, economists said. Why a soft landing is like 'Goldilocks' porridge'Steaming bowl of oatmeal porridge, made with Irish oats, wheat berries and barley. A soft landing is like "'Goldilocks' porridge' for central bankers," Brookings Institution economists wrote recently. How the labor market fits inWhy the job market is already 'back into balance'The latest labor data added to encouraging news about a likely soft landing, economists said. Despite the large monthly decline, job openings are still 25% above their February 2020 level, she added.

Persons: Luis Alvarez, Jason Furman, Obama, Jon Lovette, Julia Pollak, Pollak Organizations: Digitalvision, Federal Reserve, U.S . Department of Labor, Labor, Harvard University, White House Council, Economic Advisers, Getty, Fed, Brookings, American Economic Association

☆ Walmart and Target borrowing ideas from each other shows we're in a new economic landscape
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

In today's big story, we're looking at the rising similarities between Target and Walmart. Dominick Reuter/Business InsiderIf imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, Walmart and Target are embarking on some serious tributes to each other. AdvertisementTwo of the country's largest retailers are taking pages from each other's playbooks as they adjust to a changing economic landscape. And Walmart founder Sam Walton openly admitted he stole borrowed plenty of ideas from Sol Price, the originator of the wholesale club model. That's led Walmart to see an increase in higher-income clientele, a trend they're leaning into.

Persons: —, Dominick Reuter, Insider's Dominick Reuter, Dominick, Christina Hennington, it's, Sam Walton, Sol Price, That's, Charlie Flanagan, Management's Bryan Kelly, Li Deng, Mike Schuster, Sam Altman Andrew Caballero, Reynolds, Daniel Ek, Slaven Vlasic, Rebecca Zisser, Elon, Zers, Xochitl Gomez, Alyson Hannigan, Jason Mraz, Charity Lawson, Ariana Madix, Dan DeFrancesco, Naga Siu, Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan Organizations: Service, Target, Walmart, AQR, Investments, AQR Capital Management, Vatic Investments, Sigma, Investment, Barclays, ING, MSCI Israel, Tel, Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, Israel Securities Authority, Reuters, Broadcom, VMware, The New York Times, Inc, Adobe, ABC, Major, Baseball, MLB Network Locations: Israel, Tel Aviv, New York City, San Diego, London, New York

☆ Central bank blunders undermine tough rate talk
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Comments by central bankers underline their desire to keep interest rates high until price growth quiesces. Policymakers’ recent mistakes mean they will struggle to convince investors their tough talk is real. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell says his fellow policymakers are “not thinking about rate cuts at all”. In May, after another U.S. regional bank failure, markets concluded that the Fed’s rate hike at the beginning of that month would be its last. Respected central bankers might be able to convince markets that these numbers don’t portend imminent rate cuts.

Persons: Jay Powell, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Powell, backtrack, –, Lagarde, Treasuries, BoE, Bailey, Ben Bernanke, Jacob Frenkel, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of England, titans, Deutsche Bank, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, LSEG, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed, ECB, Bank of Israel, Federal Reserve, European, Thomson Locations: Silicon, Bailey, United States, Ukraine, Central

☆ There haven't been this few job openings in 2 years. It's exactly what the Fed's been hoping for.
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US job openings in October fell to their lowest level since 2021. In October, available job openings fell to 8.7 million from a downwardly revised 9.4 million in September. Driven largely by the retail sector, the number of job openings dipped from a downwardly revised 9.4 million job openings in September, to 8.7 million by the end of October, below the consensus forecast among economists surveyed by Bloomberg, and the lowest level since early 2021. AdvertisementThe latest job opening figures reinforce the case for a soft-landing scenario — job openings are moving higher yet the unemployment has remained relatively low. "By that ratio, a measure of labor market tightness often cited by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the labor market has slackened substantially in recent months."

Persons: It's, —, Julia Pollak, Jerome Powell, Pollak, CME's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg, Fed, ING, Barclays

☆ The Fed could cut interest rates as early as the first quarter of 2024. Here are 7 quotes from central bankers that hint at what comes next.
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Markets are betting the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as soon as early 2024. AdvertisementWall Street largely anticipates that the Federal Reserve has finished its interest rate-hiking cycle, and markets are betting central bankers will begin easing policy soon. Tom Barkin, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond president, November 29: "If inflation comes down naturally and smoothly, awesome. Mary Daly, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco president, November 30: "I'm not thinking about rate cuts at all right now. John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of New York president, November 30: "My assessment is that we are at, or near, the peak level of the target range of the federal funds rate."

Persons: Jerome Powell, —, CME's, Christopher Waller, Tom Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Mary Daly, John Williams, Williams Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, ING, Barclays, Federal Reserve Bank, Richmond, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal

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