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Opinion | The Woman in Charge of Saving Turkey’s Economy
  + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
When all hope is lost, hire a woman to take over (and take blame). Studies of the so-called glass cliff have found that companies are more likely to bring women on as chief executives or directors when business is bad. Now there’s Hafize Gaye Erkan, a former Wall Street banker who has been named the new central bank governor of Turkey. It “has consistently supported Ukraine politically and militarily without alienating Russia economically,” Yevgeniya Gaber, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Turkey, wrote recently. Turkey also has the world’s 19th-largest economy, with a gross domestic product of nearly $1 trillion a year, according to the World Bank.
Persons: Linda Yaccarino, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Brad Setser, , , Yevgeniya Organizations: Wall Street, Council, Foreign Relations, Central Bank of, NATO, Atlantic Council, World Bank, International Monetary Fund Locations: Turkey, Republic of Turkey, Ukraine, Russia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRiad Salameh has been Lebanon's central bank governor for 'way too long,' minister saysAmin Salam, economy and trade minister of Lebanon, discusses the investigation into the world's longest-serving central bank governor, Lebanon's Riad Salameh.
Persons: Amin Salam, Lebanon's Locations: Lebanon
"It is clear that to ensure economic confidence, legal consistency is a must," one of the senior officials said. Deniz Ozen, lawyer for the Turkish Workers' Party MP, said authorities are violating Turkish law by keeping him in jail. Emma Sinclair-Webb, Turkey director of Human Rights Watch, said a discredited justice system is a matter of concern especially for European investors. Reinforcing the apparent U-turn, Erdogan on Friday named Hafize Gaye Erkan as central bank governor, paving the way for interest rate hikes. "No matter the economic reforms, the investment will not significantly ramp up," he said.
Persons: Erdogan, Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Mehmet Gun, Orhan Turan, Turkey's, Osman, Deniz Ozen, Emma Sinclair, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Howard Eissenstat, Burcu Karakas, Jonathan Spicer, Catherine Evans Organizations: Better Justice Association, Istanbul Convention, Gazette, Bank, AK Party, of Human, Human Rights, Turkish Workers ' Party, Finance, St, Lawrence University, Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL, Turkey, Istanbul, Osman Kavala, Kavala, Webb
LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - JPMorgan said on Monday it expects Turkey's central bank to hike interest rates to 25% from the current 8.5% at its June meeting, adding this could come with forward guidance suggesting smaller hikes ahead if needed. June 22 is the first scheduled policy meeting after Hafize Gaye Erkan was appointed as central bank governor on Friday. "We maintain our year-end policy rate forecast at 30%, with risks on the upside," Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc wrote in a note to clients. "We forecast a recession in 2H23 on the back of a tightening in credit conditions." The Wall Street bank confirmed it expected the country to tip into recession in the second half of the year due to tightening credit conditions.
Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, Nicolaie Alexandru, Chidesciuc, Karin Strohecker, Amanda Cooper Organizations: JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: 2H23
LAGOS, June 10 (Reuters) - Nigeria's suspended central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele has been detained and is being held in custody for investigative reasons, the police's Department of State Services (DSS) said on Saturday. The country's new President Bola Tinubu suspended Emefiele with immediate effect on Friday, a measure the government said was linked to an ongoing probe of the governor's office and to planned reforms in the financial sector. "The Department of State Services (DSS) hereby confirms that Mr Godwin Emefiele, the suspended governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is now in its custody for some investigative reasons," the DSS statement said. Under Nigerian law, the permanent removal of a central bank governor from office would require a vote by the Senate. Economic analysts expect a series of changes at the central bank, including a gradual devaluation of the naira.
Persons: Godwin Emefiele, Bola Tinubu, Tinubu, Mr Godwin Emefiele, Emefiele, Razia Khan, MacDonald Dzirutwe, Alex Richardson, Mike Harrison, Helen Popper Our Organizations: police's Department of State Services, of State Services, Central Bank of Nigeria, Senate, Standard Chartered, Thomson Locations: LAGOS, Africa, Middle East, Nigeria
Erdogan picks Hafize Gaye Erkan to lead Turkey's central bank
  + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailErdogan picks Hafize Gaye Erkan to lead Turkey's central bankShe is the country's fifth central bank governor in four years. CNBC's Dan Murphy reports.
Persons: Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, CNBC's Dan Murphy
Exterior of the Turkish Central Bank, known as Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi in Ankara. Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has appointed a former Wall Street banker Hafize Gaye Erkan as the country's new central bank governor — another move that could potentially mark a policy pivot away from economic unorthodoxy. Erkan, Turkey's first female central bank chief, was a former managing director at Goldman Sachs and co-CEO at First Republic Bank. She is also Turkey's fifth central bank governor in four years. The caveat would lie in how much autonomy the central bank could exercise, and to what extent —something that Demiralp says investors will have to wait and see.
Persons: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, , Turkey's, Goldman Sachs, Mehmet Simsek's, Selva Demiralp, Demiralp Organizations: Turkish Central Bank, Wall Street, First Republic Bank, Princeton, Koç University, CNBC Locations: Ankara, U.S, Istanbul
The Wall Street bank, in an overhaul to a number of its forecasts for Turkey, said stabilising the economy "will require a large, and we think discontinuous, adjustment to the exchange rate." While guidance was for the monetary policy framework was still missing at this stage, the bank noted, a "fully orthodox policy-maker" would allow the exchange rate to adjust upfront and would raise the repo rate to a level where it anchored interest rates in the economy. "In our view, this suggests that an orthodox policy-maker would raise rates to 40%, the current level of deposit rates," Clemens Grafe said in a note to clients. Grafe added that once the exchange rate and inflation expectations stabilised, rates could be lowered quickly, possibly to 25% by end-year. Goldman Sachs also cut Turkey's GDP forecast to 2.3% year-on-year in 2023, from previously 2.9%.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Mehmet Simsek, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Clemens Grafe, Grafe, Karin Strohecker, Dhara Organizations: Thomson Locations: Turkey
Some analysts have predicted the central bank may begin to cut key rates as soon as next week after a flurry of weak data highlighted the fragility of China's economic rebound. "It is expected that year-on-year growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter will be relatively high (mainly due to the base effects). The CPI is expected to gradually pick up in the second half of the year and be above 1% year-on-year by December," the PBOC statement quoted Yi as saying. The government has set a modest GDP growth target of around 5% for this year, after badly missing the 2022 goal. Reporting by Ellen Zhang and Ryan Woo; editing by John Stonestreet and Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Yi Gang, Yi, Ellen Zhang, Ryan Woo, John Stonestreet, Sharon Singleton Organizations: People's Bank of China, Group, SAIC Motor Corp, Citibank, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, United States, Europe, Shanghai, China
ABUJA, June 9 (Reuters) - Nigeria's President Bola Tinubu has suspended central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele with immediate effect, following ongoing investigation of his office and planned reforms in the financial sector, the head of the government said on Friday. Tinubu criticised Emefiele's handling of the currency and monetary policy at his inauguration last week and called on the central bank to work towards a unified exchange rate. "President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has suspended the Central Bank Governor, Mr Godwin Emefiele, from office with immediate effect," the government said in a statement. Emefiele has been directed to hand over operations to the deputy governor, who will act as the central bank governor pending the conclusion of investigation and the reforms, the statement said. On Wednesday, the central bank allowed the naira to weaken by 2% on the official market to a record low.
Persons: Bola Tinubu, Godwin Emefiele, Tinubu, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Mr Godwin Emefiele, Emefiele, Muhammadu Buhari, Felix Onuah, Chijioke Ohuocha, Marguerita Choy, Chris Reese Organizations: Central Bank Governor, Financial, Thomson Locations: ABUJA, Nigeria
LONDON, June 9 (Reuters) - Turkey's new central bank governor Hafize Gaye Erkan faces the tough task of alleviating a bruising cost-of-living crisis while hoping to restore investor confidence at home and abroad after years of unorthodox policymaking. Appointed on Friday, the 43-year old is the first woman at the helm of the country's central bank, taking over from Sahap Kavcioglu, who spearheaded President Tayyip Erdogan's rate-cutting drive against a backdrop of soaring inflation. Her new role makes her one of only around a dozen women currently serving as central bank governors around the world, including the likes of ECB President Christine Lagarde, Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina and Serbia's Jorgovanka Tabakovic. Having spent all of her professional life outside Turkey, Erkan has no formal central banking experience, making her leanings for monetary policy unclear. Kathryn Wylde, president and CEO of Partnership for New York City, a nonprofit organization where Erkan once served as a board director, says Erkan was seen as "tough, smart, and effective."
Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, Sahap Kavcioglu, Tayyip Erdogan's, Christine Lagarde, Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, Erkan, Goldman Sachs, Mark Carney, Mario Draghi, William Dudley, Goldman, Marsh McLennan, Kathryn Wylde, Wylde, Karin Strohecker, Jonathan Spicer, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Russian Central Bank Governor, Bogazici University, Harvard Business School's, Management, Research, Financial Engineering, Princeton University, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, New York Fed, First Republic Bank, Banking, Finance, New, Thomson Locations: Sahap, Istanbul, Turkey, New York City
The central bank's first female governor, Erkan is also its fifth chief in four years, underlining the challenge she may face delivering a lasting policy turnaround after Erdogan has all but stamped out the bank's independence in recent years. Analysts now expect Turkey's central bank to hike interest rates to between 20% and 25% from 8.5% as soon as this month. ORTHODOX FINANCE MINISTERErdogan, a self-proclaimed "enemy" of interest rates, has pressed the central bank to deliver stimulus in recent years and has been quick to replace its governor. The central bank slashed its policy rate to 8.5% from 19% in 2021, leaving real rates deeply negative and the lira largely managed by dozens of regulations covering credit and foreign exchange. But the last central bank governor to raise rates, Naci Agbal, was fired in 2021 after less than five months on the job.
Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Goldman Sachs, Erdogan's, Erdogan, Kavcioglu, Selva Demiralp, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Erkan, Naci Agbal, Marsh, Kathryn Wylde, Wylde, Ali Kucukgocment, Jonathan Spicer, Daren Butler, Cynthia Osterman, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Lira, First Republic Bank, Official Gazette, Koc University, U.S . Federal Reserve, Princeton University, First, JPMorgan, Analysts, FINANCE, Greystone, Partnership, New, Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL, United States, unorthodoxy, Erkan, U.S, New York City
The currency later recouped some of its losses, standing at 23.33 against the dollar by 0542 GMT, after touching a record low of 23.39 overnight during illiquid trading hours. "There is no air of panic in the markets as in previous times when there were such high losses. The central bank's net forex reserves hit an all-time low of negative $4.4 billion last month as demand surged through the elections. Investors are now awaiting the appointment of a new central bank governor to succeed Sahap Kavcioglu, who has spearheaded Erdogan's rate-slashing drive since 2021. Erdogan is considering appointing Hafize Gaye Erkan, a U.S.-based senior finance executive, as central bank governor, Reuters reported on Monday.
Persons: Tayyip Erdogan's, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Erik Meyersson, SEB, Meyersson, Sahap Kavcioglu, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Ali Kucukgocmen, Jonathan Spicer, Gareth Jones Organizations: Lira, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL, Ankara, U.S
He will replace Patrick Njoroge, who is retiring after serving two terms as the central bank governor since 2015. In a voice vote, lawmakers adopted the report of the National Assembly's finance committee, which urged the house to back his appointment after vetting his suitability for the post. His predecessor, Njoroge, has maintained stable prices for most of his eight years at the helm. But the World Bank expects growth to edge up to 5.0% in 2023, underpinned by a recovery in agriculture. Reporting by Duncan Miriri; Writing by Alexander Winning; Editing by David EvansOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Thugge, William Ruto's, Kamau, Ruto, Patrick Njoroge, Duncan Miriri, Alexander Winning, David Evans Organizations: Njoroge, National, Johns Hopkins University, International Monetary Fund, Kenyan, Treasury, Bank, Thomson Locations: Ruto, U.S
ABUJA, June 7 (Reuters) - Nigeria's central bank allowed the naira to drop about 2% on the official market to a record low on Wednesday, but the currency's rate remained above where it trades at central bank auctions and on the black market. Nigeria is trying to find a way to unify its multiple exchange rate system, used to keep the naira artificially strong. In the past, the bank has allowed the naira to weaken in 5 naira increments. The central bank has been adjusting the naira gradually on the official market to avoid a large-scale devaluation. Last Thursday, the central bank denied devaluing the naira, following media reports of a big fall in the currency after Tinubu met the central bank governor.
Persons: Bola Tinubu, Tinubu, Chijioke, Alexander Winning, Christina Fincher Organizations: New, U.S, Traders, Thomson Locations: ABUJA, Nigeria
Markets are also waiting for the appointment of a new central bank governor to replace Sahap Kavcioglu, who spearheaded interest rate cuts under Erdogan’s unorthodox policies. Bankers say the lira’s continued gradual depreciation will lead to improved market conditions and halt a decline in central bank reserves. But it sparked a record lira crisis in 2021 and sent inflation to a 24-year high above 85% last year. Erdogan is considering appointing Hafize Gaye Erkan, a senior finance executive in the United States, as central bank governor, Reuters reported Monday. Erkan would be the country’s fifth central bank chief in four years, after Erdogan fired previous governors as part of frequent policy shifts.
Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Sahap Kavcioglu, , Tim Ash, , Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Paul McNamara Organizations: BlueBay Asset Management, Bankers, Reuters, Simsek, GAM Locations: Turkish, United States, Ankara, Turkey
Markets are also waiting for the appointment of a new central bank governor to replace Sahap Kavcioglu, who spearheaded rate cuts under Erdogan's unorthodox policies. "I think we are seeing the impact of Simsek pushing (the Turkish central bank) for rational policy." Bankers say the lira's continued gradual depreciation will lead to improved market conditions and halt a decline in central bank reserves. But it sparked a record lira crisis in December of 2021 and sent inflation to a 24-year high above 85% last year. Erdogan is considering appointing Hafize Gaye Erkan, a senior finance executive in the United States, as central bank governor, Reuters reported on Monday.
Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Sahap Kavcioglu, Tim Ash, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Paul McNamara, Huseyin Hayatsever, Jonathan Spicer, Ali Kucukgocmen, Tom Hogue, Christina Fincher Organizations: BlueBay Asset Management, Bankers, Reuters, Simsek, GAM, Thomson Locations: ANKARA, Turkish, United States, Ankara, Turkey, Jorgelina, Rosario, London
The letter said the Nigerian Air Force is committed to human rights and “further deliberations” on the issue, according to the report. “The absence of details raises the question of whether the air force carried out the air strike based on mere suspicion,” Human Rights Watch said. The U.S. State Department and the Pentagon had no immediate comment about the airstrike or the U.S. relationship with the Nigerian Air Force. Before now, neither the Nigerian government nor the military had provided any public explanation for what happened on Jan. 24. ACLED data show Nigerian Air Force strikes continued to claim the lives of noncombatants, inside and outside the northeast.
Persons: Ibrahim Muazu, , ACLED, D.D, Pwajok, , Sara Jacobs, herdsmen, Oladayo Amao, Amao, “ miscreants, Muhammadu Buhari, Bola Tinubu, Jan, Muazu, Lamido, Nigeria’s, Sanusi, Buhari, Rand Paul, Cory Booker, Rex Tillerson, Lai Mohammed, Jacobs, Jim Risch, Chris Smith, Antony Blinken, Biden, Risch, brazenly “, ” Abubakar Bello Rukubi, ” “, Yemi Osinbajo, cc’d, Samuel Ortom, herder, ” Muazu, Humeyra Pamuk, Daphne Psaledakis, Idrees Ali, Jarrett Renshaw, David Lewis, Reade Levinson, Simon Newman, Catherine Tai Design, Eve Watling, Julie Marquis, Alexandra Zavis Organizations: herder, Reuters, Air Force, Nigerian Air Force, Human Rights Watch, Air, Rights Watch, Ministry of Defence, Nigerian Air, House Foreign Affairs, ” Reuters, ACLED, Planet Labs PBC, U.S . State Department, Pentagon, , Muazu, Congress, San Frontieres, Republican, Punch, UK, Nigeria –, Systems, U.S, Super, International, Development, Rights Initiative, Benue State Livestock Guards, Human Rights, Daily Trust, Nigeria’s Locations: Nigerian, Nasarawa, Akwanaja, United States, U.S, Nigeria, California, Kano, Rann, Cameroonian, Zamfara, , Benue, ” Benue, London, Makurdi, Naka, Washington, Philadelphia
Erkan met with Mehmet Simsek, Turkey's newly-appointed treasury and finance minister, in Ankara on Monday, one of the sources said. The two sources told Reuters she is set to meet Erdogan soon to discuss the possible role. Turkey's policy rate was cut to 8.5% from 19% in 2021, setting off a historic currency crash in late 2021. Erkan would be the country's fifth central bank chief in four years. The central bank has been the linchpin of Erdogan's programme of monetary stimulus and targeted credit to boost economic growth, exports and investments.
Persons: Erdogan, Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Mehmet Simsek, Sahap Kavcioglu, Goldman Sachs, Simsek, Kathryn Wylde, Wylde, Naci Agbal, Marsh, Jonathan Spicer, Daren Butler, Angus MacSwan, Emelia Organizations: Reuters, First Republic Bank, Treasury, Ivy League, Princeton, New, First, JPMorgan, Greystone, Thomson Locations: Turkey, ANKARA, United States, Ankara, New York City, U.S
BUDAPEST, June 2 (Reuters) - Hungary should not consider adopting the euro before 2030 as joining the single currency zone before its economy is duly prepared would backfire, central bank governor Gyorgy Matolcsy said on Friday. Matolcsy said once Hungary reaches about 90% of the EU's average level in terms of economic development, then the adoption of the single currency could be put on the agenda. "It is dangerous to enter the club of the rich while the economy is unprepared for it," Matolcsy told state radio. "Perhaps around 2030 or a bit later we could reach ... 90% of the EU's average in terms of development, then it's worth entering (the euro zone) as the euro has many advantages," Matolcsy said. The National Bank of Hungary is currently fighting the EU's highest inflation rate, running at an annual 24% in April, while the economy is slowing sharply.
Persons: Gyorgy Matolcsy, Matolcsy, Mihaly Varga, Krisztina, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: National Bank of, EU, Thomson Locations: BUDAPEST, Hungary, Hungarian, National Bank of Hungary, Austria, Croatia, Slovenia, Slovakia
BUDAPEST, June 2 (Reuters) - Hungary should not consider adopting the euro before 2030 as joining the single currency zone before its economy is duly prepared would backfire, central bank governor Gyorgy Matolcsy said on Friday. Matolcsy said once Hungary reaches about 90% of the EU's average level in terms of economic development, then the adoption of the single currency could be put on the agenda. "It is dangerous to enter the club of the rich while the economy is unprepared for it," Matolcsy told state radio. "Perhaps around 2030 or a bit later we could reach ... 90% of the EU's average in terms of development, then it's worth entering (the euro zone) as the euro has many advantages," Matolcsy said. The National Bank of Hungary is currently fighting the EU's highest inflation rate, running at an annual 24% in April, while the economy is slowing sharply.
Persons: Gyorgy Matolcsy, Matolcsy, Mihaly Varga, Krisztina, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: National Bank of, EU, Thomson Locations: BUDAPEST, Hungary, Hungarian, National Bank of Hungary, Austria, Croatia, Slovenia, Slovakia
Some economists argued that the bigger than forecast drop in underlying inflation suggests that not much work is left to be done. "Underlying inflation has probably passed its peak," Commerzbank economist Christoph Weil said. "This supports our expectation that the ECB will raise key interest rates by 25 basis points for the last time in June." Services inflation slowed to 5.0% from 5.2% while price growth for industrial goods eased to 5.8% from 6.2%, still excessive but both moving in the right direction. Euro zone wage growth is hovering in the 5% to 6% range, twice the rate that would be consistent with the ECB's inflation target.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Christoph Weil, Nordea, Balazs Koranyi, John Stonestreet Organizations: FRANKFURT, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Germany, Netherlands, Ireland
The Australian dollar is sliding towards a fourth consecutive monthly loss and at $0.6492 is barely above last week's seven-month lows. Aussie stocks (.AXJO) are eying their worst month since February with a 2.4% drop. Based on these factors, we raise our end-2023 targets for Japanese stocks, to 2,300 for TOPIX and 32,500 for the Nikkei 225." Benchmark 10-year yields dropped 12.4 basis points overnight and fell another 1.5 bps on Wednesday in Asian trade to 3.6808%. The drop in yields put a pause in what looks to be the U.S. dollar's best monthly rally since February.
Persons: stockmarkets, Carol Kong, Masashi Akutsu, Joe Biden, Treasuries, Philip Lowe, Sam Holmes Organizations: Nikkei, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, of America, Republican, Brent, Thomson Locations: China, Asia, Japan, SINGAPORE, Pacific, U.S, United States
Simsek was highly regarded by financial markets when he served as finance minister and deputy prime minister between 2009 and 2018. After chairing a final meeting of his old cabinet on Wednesday, Erdogan will announce new ministerial roles by Saturday, officials said. The new cabinet is almost certain to include his spokesman Ibrahim Kalin and intelligence chief Hakan Fidan, they added. One of the sources, a senior official with knowledge of the subject, said Erdogan and Simsek had spoken for 2-1/2 hours. The same official said former minister Cevdet Yilmaz could take up the role of Treasury and Finance Minister if Simsek were to become a vice president.
Persons: Erdogan, Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Ibrahim Kalin, Hakan Fidan, Nureddin Nebati, Guillaume Tresca, Cevdet Yilmaz, Lutfi Elvan, Sahap Kavcioglu, Timothy Ash, Ash, Amruta Khandekar, Daren Butler, Jonathan Spicer, Toby Chopra, Catherine Evans Organizations: Intelligence, Lira, FX, Reuters, Treasury, Finance, Emerging, Generali Investments, AK, Simsek, BlueBay Asset Management, Thomson Locations: ANKARA
Earlier this month, Chairman Jay Powell said the Fed's monetary policy and financial stability tools were "working well together," allowing it to support banks and pursue price stability. But several people in the market believe not only is the regional banking sector still under stress, multiple other risks to financial stability also remain. Tighter monetary policy could well cause them to blow up or worsen the impact of other shocks, such as debt ceiling negotiations. "The Fed has no desire to conduct monetary policy through financial crises," said Wendy Edelberg, director of The Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. In its most recent financial stability report earlier this month, the Fed listed several areas of concern, including life insurance and some types of bond and loan funds.
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