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The Australian dollar perked up from near one-week lows after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates for the eighth time in as many months. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, was at 105.24, steady after Monday's 0.7% rally, its biggest since Nov. 21. It later reversed course after data showing U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly picked up in November, with employment rebounding. Traders currently expect a half-point hike to a 4.25-4.5% policy band and a terminal rate of just above 5% in May. Reporting by Joice Alves and Kevin Buckland; Editing by Alexander SmithOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
SINGAPORE, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Asian stocks logged their sharpest declines in two weeks but the dollar held on to gains following strong U.S. data that again suggested the Federal Reserve might stick longer with aggressive interest rate increases. Chinese stocks extended their recovery, with the broader index (.CSI300) gaining 0.6%, while Japan (.N225) was up 0.3%. Futures show the market expects U.S. short-term interest rates to peak at 5.001% in May. The dollar stayed firm versus major peers, following its biggest rally in two weeks on Monday, which was helped by the strong U.S. services data. The Australian dollar regained some ground after the country's central bank raised interest rates to decade highs and stuck with a prediction of further hikes ahead, quashing any thought it was near to pausing.
REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File PhotoSINGAPORE, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Asian stocks retreated from three-month highs and the dollar held on to gains following strong U.S. data that again suggested the Federal Reserve might stick longer with aggressive interest rate increases. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) shed 0.4%, after climbing to a three-month high in the previous session. Stocks in Korea (.KS11) and Taiwan (.TWII) traded lower, while China's broader index (.CSI300) rose 0.6% and Japan (.N225) and Hong Kong <.HSI> stocks were steady. Futures show the market expects U.S. short-term interest rates to peak at 5.001% in May. The dollar stayed firm versus major peers, following its biggest rally in two weeks on Monday, which was helped by the strong U.S. services data.
The rupee was at 82.2550 to the dollar at 10:58 a.m. IST, down from 81.79 in the previous session. The local unit dropped to a low of 82.34, a level last seen on Nov. 4. Talk of a mining company's large dividend payment-related dollar outflow was adding to the USD/INR upside momentum, they added. Meanwhile, USD/INR forward premiums fell more to slip to their lowest level in more than a decade. The RBI will raise interest rates by a smaller 35 basis points to 6.25%, according to economists polled by Reuters.
Gold regains some ground as dollar dips
  + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
One kilo gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. Gold prices edged up on Tuesday, helped by a slight pullback in the U.S. dollar, which makes the greenback-priced bullion less expensive for buyers holding other currencies. Bullion dropped from a five-month high to close 1.6% lower as the dollar rebounded after the data prompted speculation the Fed may lift interest rates more than recently projected. Higher interest rates tend to weigh on gold's appeal as they increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. The European Central Bank is also likely to raise interest rates by 50 bps next week amid ongoing inflationary concerns, governing council member Gabriel Makhlouf said on Monday.
Data Monday showing that U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly picked up in November prompted speculation the Fed may lift interest rates more than recently projected. "There was a lot of price action yesterday, and we're just consolidating that," with the big focus on next week's Fed meeting. The euro was flat against the dollar at $1.0492, while the dollar was down 0.1% against the Japanese yen. European Central Bank policymaker Constantinos Herodotou said on Tuesday interest rates will go up again but are now "very near" their neutral level. The dollar was up 0.6% against the Canadian dollar ahead of the Bank of Canada's rate decision Wednesday.
MUMBAI, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open lower versus the dollar on Tuesday after better-than-expected U.S. data rekindled worries on how high the Federal Reserve will hike rates. The rupee is projected to open at around 81.90 per U.S. dollar, weaker than the 81.79 closing in the previous session. The rupee has in the last two sessions declined despite a host of positive cues. The rise in Treasury yields and expectations that the Reserve Bank of India will deliver a smaller rate hike on Wednesday may push rupee forward premiums to new multi-year lows. The RBI will raise interest rates by a smaller 35 basis points to 6.25% in December, according to economists polled by Reuters.
Oil drops below $80 as demand doubt deepens
  + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Global oil prices slid below $80 per barrel for the first time since January on Tuesday, extending a downward trend as growing concerns about global demand offset any bullish effects from an EU-led price cap on Russian oil sales. Brent crude futures settled down 4.03%, to $79.35 a barrel, their lowest since Jan. 4. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell 3.48%, to $74.26 after hitting its lowest level this year. The U.S. dollar index edged lower on Tuesday but was still buoyed by bets on higher interest rates, following the biggest rally in two weeks on Monday. U.S. crude oil stocks are forecast to have fallen last week.
Broadly, indexes suffered as data showed U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly picked up in November, with employment rebounding, offering more evidence of underlying momentum in the economy. Investors see an 89% chance that the U.S. central bank will increase interest rates by 50 basis points next week to 4.25%-4.50%, with the rates peaking at 4.984% in May 2023. The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets on Dec. 13-14, the final meeting in a volatile year, which saw the central bank attempt to arrest a multi-decade rise in inflation with record interest rate hikes. "Stock Exchange" is seen over an entrance to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Wall St. in New York City, U.S., March 29, 2021. Although bank profits are typically boosted by rising interest rates, they are also sensitive to concerns about bad loans or slowing loan growth amid an economic downturn.
"Good news on the economy is bad news for inflation, whether that's China opening up or lower gasoline prices." The 10-year's yield rose 9.3 basis points to 3.596%. The 10-year German bund , the bloc's benchmark, rose 1.3 basis points to 1.890%. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday, and is expected to raise rates by a mere 25 basis points. The Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday and is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points.
The survey followed on the heels of stronger-than-expected job and wage growth data for November released last Friday. "The ISM services PMI data highlighted a U.S. economy that's still showing some strength, despite tighter financial conditions," said Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, an economist at BMO Capital Markets. "While that's good news for the growth outlook, it's not so great for the Fed trying to dampen demand and ease inflation." Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week the U.S. central bank could scale back the pace of its rate increases "as soon as December." "I think this issue about 'peak inflation, peak rates, peak dollar' - I think - is slowly turning into a 'persistence of inflation, a persistence of higher-for-longer interest rates," said Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank.
Broadly, indexes were suffering as data showed U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly picked up in November, with employment rebounding, offering more evidence of underlying momentum in the economy. In other economic data this week, investors will also monitor weekly jobless claims, producer prices and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey for more clues on the health of the U.S. economy. It was weighed by U.S. natural gas futures slumping more than 8% on Monday, as the outlook dimmed due to forecasts for milder weather and the delayed restart of the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant. EQT Corp (EQT.N), one of the largest U.S. natural gas producers, led declines with a 7.1% drop. Although bank profits are typically boosted by rising interest rates, they are also sensitive to concerns about bad loans or slowing loan growth amid an economic downturn.
Brent crude futures were down $2.18, or 2.6%, at $83.39 a barrel by 1:23 p.m. EST (1823 GMT). read moreThe news caused oil and stock markets to pare gains. The data challenges hopes that the Fed might slow the pace and intensity of its rate hikes amid recent signs of ebbing inflation. The Group of Seven (G7) countries and Australia last week agreed on a $60 a barrel price cap on seaborne Russian oil. At the same time, in a positive sign for fuel demand in the world's top oil importer, more Chinese cities eased COVID curbs over the weekend.
Robotic arms at a Mercedes-Benz facility in Alabama. Weakness overseas and a strong dollar are hurting manufacturing more than services. The manufacturing sector has fallen into a funk. Services business are in anything but that. The details of the report were good, showing employment picking up and supply-chain problems easing.
Economists shrugged off a survey from S&P Global confirming its services PMI was stuck in contraction territory in November. Thirteen services industries including construction, healthcare and social assistance, retail trade as well as professional, scientific and technical services reported growth last month. But information, wholesale trade and management of companies and support services reported a decline. Factory ordersIn November, the ISM's measure of services industry employment increased to 51.5 from 49.1 in October. The survey's measure of services industry supplier deliveries fell to 53.8 from 56.2 in October.
U.S. service sector activity picks up in November - ISM survey
  + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
WASHINGTON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly picked up in November, with employment rebounding, offering more evidence of underlying momentum in the economy as it braces for an anticipated recession next year. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Manufacturing activity contracted in November for the first time in 2-1/2 years, the ISM reported last week. In November, the ISM's measure of services industry employment increased to 51.5 from 49.1 in October. The survey's measure of services industry supplier deliveries fell to 53.8 from 56.2 in October.
Data showed U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly picked up in November, with employment rebounding, offering more evidence of underlying momentum in the economy. "Right now it's more of an issue of watching the Fed and they are going to need to tighten and longer than needed." Investors see an 89% chance that the U.S. central bank will increase interest rates by 50 basis points next week, with the rates peaking in May 2023. All major Wall Street indexes notched a second straight week of gains last week, with the S&P 500 rising 1.13%, the Dow gaining 0.24% and the Nasdaq climbing 2.1%. The S&P index recorded four new 52-week highs and one new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 54 new highs and 39 new lows.
If U.S. financial conditions continue to ease and implied market volatility remains well-anchored, bulls will stay on the front foot. On the Asian policy front, further evidence that the burst of 'jumbo' hikes is over will also support risk appetite. The fiscal policy focus this week will be on China, with the Communist Party's Politburo meeting early this month to lay out the government's strategy and guidelines for the year ahead. Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect policymakers to reiterate a 'supportive' stance in light of weak economic activity recently. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
JPMorgan, Citi and BlackRock are among those who believe a recession is likely in 2023. Nevertheless, many on Wall Street are increasing allocations to areas of the market that have a reputation for outperforming during uncertain economic times. The S&P 500 Health Care sector is down around 1.7% year-to-date, handily beating the broader index's performance. JPMorgan's analysts forecast a "mild recession" and expect the S&P 500 to test its 2022 lows in the first quarter of next year. Signs of ebbing inflation have fueled hopes that the Fed may tighten monetary policy less than expected, supporting a rebound in the S&P 500 that has buoyed the index from its October low.
Markets could be volatile and in search of a catalyst in the week ahead, as investors consider year-end trades in the lull before the Federal Reserve's December 13-14 policy meeting. Stocks were higher in the past week, with the year's worst performing sectors, communications services and consumer discretionary companies, leading the gains. On the geopolitical front, Arone said investors will watch the Dec. 6 runoff election in Georgia's senate race . Week ahead calendar Monday Earnings: Sumo Logic , Gitlab 9:45 a.m. Services PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM services 10:00 a.m. Initial jobless claims 10:00 a.m. Quarterly services survey Friday 8:30 a.m. PPI 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade
REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoLONDON, Nov 29 - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. They also cheered a relaxation of regulations on developer fundraising that eases the smouldering property sector bust. A crackdown on demonstrations happened simultaneously, with Chinese authorities making inquiries into some protesters as police flooded the city's streets. Strikingly, hawkish Dutch central banker Klaus Knot also said forecasts of recession may be overdone and fears of "overtightening" policy were a "joke". His boss European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said euro zone inflation, which is expected to ease this month but remain above 10%, has not yet peaked, encouraging speculation of another swingeing 75 basis point interest rate rise next month.
Meanwhile, the downturn in euro zone business activity eased slightly in November, offering a glimmer of hope the expected recession there may be shallower than feared, but consumers still cut spending amid a cost of living crisis. However, November is the fifth month the index has been below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction. But in France activity contracted for the first time since February 2021 as lower new orders weighed on the euro zone's second-biggest economy. Activity in the bloc's dominant services industry declined again, with the headline index matching October's 20-month low of 48.6. Manufacturing activity, particularly hard hit by soaring energy prices and disrupted supply chains, also declined but at a slower pace.
JPMorgan has cooled on a deal to back London fintech startup Yapily, Insider understands. Discussions over a $25 million injection into the startup were at an advanced stage, sources say. JPMorgan has opted out of pursuing a strategic investment into London fintech Yapily, Insider understands. Yapily, which is backed by Square and Wise investor Sapphire Ventures, operates in the burgeoning open banking sector. The US financial giant had considered a deal that would have seen the bank inject around $25 million into the startup, one London-based source said.
The US economy has a "feasible if challenging path to a soft landing" next year, Goldman Sachs said. "The initial steps along this path have been successful, but there is much further to go in 2023." Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. And while consumer spending will continue to grow, Goldman expects that to be offset by weakness in housing and other sectors. Step 4Lastly, Goldman says the slowdown in wage growth has to drive inflation back down to 2%, which will take longer than 2023.
Uniqlo's Manhattan flagship store offers low-cost repairs to worn clothes from the brand. PatagoniaWorn Wear is Patagonia's way of extending the life of its garments by allowing customers to trade in old clothes for store credit. According to the site, the old jeans are repurposed as part of a collaboration with Cotton's Blue Jeans Go Green, another recycling program. ReformationReformation's clothes recycling program, RefRecycling, has operated since 2015. LululemonLululemon's "Like New" section offers customers the option of gently used activewear at a cheaper price than the brand's new clothing.
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