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☆ Charts show little fear of a market drawdown. So now may be a good time to hedge
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( Todd Gordon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Breaking down the market charts The S & P 500 broke out above the 2021 highs of 4,820 in the first two weeks of this year. Again, I don't know. I don't know. And I'm content to come before you and say I don't know and we can't know. This measures how much premium is embedded in the at the money puts and calls in the S & P 500.

Persons: Todd Gordon, Gordon Organizations: Nvidia, Inside Edge, Inside Edge Capital Management

☆ A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns Wall Street groupthink is wrongly leading investors to abandon recession forecasts — and says a 'policy disaster' is brewing as the Fed keeps
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Various labor market indicators are also showing growing weakness in the economy, he said. Societe GeneraleNational Federation of Independent Business data shows further labor market weakness is likely to come, as small business hiring plans continue to fall. Both stats would suggest a rising unemployment rate going forward. In the meantime, the labor market has consistently proven resilient despite high interest rates, and stocks have enjoyed an eye-popping rally to new highs. Some also argue that labor market data points like the rising unemployment rate have to be shown with context.

Persons: —, Albert Edwards, didn't, Edwards, aren't, we'll, Societe Generale Edwards, Bob Elliott, groupthink Edwards, Alan Greenspan Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Wall, Business, Societe Generale National Federation of Independent Business, ING, Generale, Unlimited Partners, Bridgewater Associates, of Labor Statistics, Tech

☆ Trim Alphabet, buy Microsoft: How major hedge funds invested in tech during the first quarter
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-18 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Hedge funds took a diversified approach to technology investing in the first quarter as the sector built on its 2024 rally. Both Appaloosa and Coatue trimmed stakes in Nvidia during the period, with the latter shrinking his stake by 68% to $1.25 billion. Stanley Druckenmiller told CNBC last month that he cut his Nvidia stake in late March and called AI a "little overhyped" in the short run. Apple caught renewed attention from Viking Global and cuts from Coatue and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. Coatue, Third Point, Viking Global and Tiger Global upped their Amazon stakes, while Appaloosa and D1 Capital trimmed their holdings.

Persons: Michael Burry, Ole Andreas Halvorsen zeroed, David Tepper's, Chase, Seth Klarman's Baupost, Dan Sundheim's, Phillippe Laffont's Coatue, Dan Loeb's, Halvorsen, Tepper, Sundheim, Laffont, Brad Gerstner, Stanley Druckenmiller, Warren Buffett's Berkshire, Coatue Organizations: Technology, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Meta, Capital, Microsoft, Street's, CNBC, Apple, Viking Global, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Tiger Global Locations: Coatue, Warren

☆ With S&P back at new highs, now come the price target and earnings revisions
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Now that the S & P 500 and most major stock market indexes are at or near historic highs, expect a raft of earnings and year-end price target revisions for the S & P 500 to be coming. First up with an upward revision was Brian Belski at BMO Capital, who Wednesday raised his year-end S & P target to 5,600 from 5,100. The median price target (half above, half below) is 5,200. Earnings for the rest of the year have been remarkably stable, but the key point is that each quarter is higher and a record for S & P 500 profits: 2024 S & P 500 quarterly earnings estimates Q2: $59.46 (record) Q3: $63.49 (record) Q4: $65.08 (record) Source: LSEG Valuations (roughly 20 times forward S & P 500 earnings) are pricey but not unreasonable given the continuing strength of the economy and the prospects of AI-boosted returns. May: market advance broadens (advance/decline line) S & P 500: near new high S & P Mid Cap: new high S & P Small Cap: highest since Dec.

Persons: Sam Stovall, CFRA, Brian Belski, Belski, Subramanian, Venu Krishna, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Oppenheimer, John Stoltzfus, Lori Calvasina, Manish, Nicolaus, Barry Banniester, Jonathan Golub, Chris Harvey, Dubravko, Bujas, Cantor Fitzgerald, Eric Johnson, Scott Chronert, Julian Emanuel, Fundstrat, Tom Lee, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Hugo Ste, Stovall Organizations: BMO Capital, Wall, of America, Barclays, BMO, RBC, Societe Generale, UBS, Bloomberg, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, ISI, JPMorgan, Scotiabank, @VX Locations: Wells Fargo, Marie

☆ The outlook on gold and gold stocks into the summer is looking strong, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( David Keller | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Let's take a look at how gold stocks have fared and see how recent price action suggests the uptrend is nowhere near completed. While gold stocks tend to be very much tied to the performance of the underlying commodity, there will often be periods of dislocation, where gold and gold miners appear to be more disconnected. This appears to have occurred in the first quarter, when physical gold was fairly flat, but gold miners were sold off into a February low. The chart of Royal Gold (RGLD) shows that the early breakouts are beginning to occur. Given the strength in the charts of physical gold and gold miners, this group may serve as a compelling opportunity going into the summer months.

Persons: Let's, David Keller Organizations: Nasdaq, Gold Miners, CMT

☆ A former Bridgewater executive shares his 2 highest-conviction trades right now — and breaks down why the US labor market remains exceptionally strong despite apparent signs of weakness
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Another common worry among investors is the risk that elevated interest rates pose to the labor market and overall economy. AdvertisementThat difference is that prior cycles have been driven by lending, Elliott said. Lending growth fueled economic expansions and drops in lending led to economic contractions. He said it can act as a hedge against the Fed cutting rates too early with the economy still strong. AdvertisementInvestors can gain exposure to gold through funds like the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and the iShares Gold Trust (IAU).

Persons: St, Louis, Bob Elliott, Elliott, Louis Fed, It's Organizations: Service, Unlimited Funds, Bridgewater Associates, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Trust

☆ 'Someone played this beautifully': Why one expert is suspicious of the latest meme-stock revival
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Deep out-of-the-money call options saw an explosion in trading volume just before the return of "Roaring Kitty." AdvertisementThe recent explosion in meme stocks like GameStop and AMC Entertainment looks suspicious, according to one market expert. Aside from the call options, GameStop stock has been gaining since late April, jumping about 60% from April 24 through March 10 despite no fundamental news on the company. "A suspicious person might wonder why 'Roaring Kitty' chose to return to social media today. The SEC filings in BBBY were boilerplate, and the social media post literally had no words.

Persons: Steve Sosnick, —, Sosnick, Kitty, Ryan Cohen, Cohen, it's Organizations: GameStop, Interactive, Service, AMC Entertainment, Interactive Brokers, Yahoo Finance, SEC Locations: Bath

☆ A software consultant trading stocks on the side is up 318% in 2024. He shares the stock screener he uses to find the trades he makes.
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

He was 13 when he first heard about trading stocks. Finally, he filters for volume with the "50-day average volume"— the average number of shares traded daily over 50 days — above 25,000 shares. He had been watching Nvidia's chart since December, and it had a consistent 200-day moving average trend upward. As of January 3rd, it held above its 50-day moving average, bouncing off resistance points around $8.83 and $8.94 with minor pullbacks. The stock had a strong 150- and 200-day average uptrend.

Persons: Leoš, Benjamin Graham's, William O'Neil, Mark Minervini, Norman Zadeh, Mikulka Organizations: Investor's, Gamestop, US, Business, Apple, Nvidia, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Holdings Locations: Prague, IBD

☆ S&P 500 rebounds to less than 1% from a record after orderly three-week pullback
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The five-month, 28% sprint from the October correction low to the record high on the last trading day of the first quarter left the S & P 500 overbought, overheated and over-loved. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD So far, so good, three weeks down and now three weeks up, taking the S & P 500 back to within 1% of its March 28 peak. More specifically, he tracks the correlation between S & P 500 and the Citi Economic Surprise Index. Fidelity Investments head of global macro Jurrien Timmer fashioned this look at the path of S & P 500 earnings heading into and through each calendar year, with 2024 holding up better than 2023 was last year at this time. The last time the S & P 500 was at today's level above 5200 in late March, the 12-month forward price/earnings multiple was 21.

Persons: that's, Jerome Powell, Scott Chronert, It's, Powell, Lori Calvasina, we've Organizations: U.S, Bank, Citi, Citi U.S, Fidelity Investments, Treasury, RBC Capital

☆ Relief rally is 'questionable at best' and stocks to finish year lower from here, says Piper Sandler
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

"This relief rally in equities is questionable at best," wrote chief market technician Craig Johnson. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 this year Year to date, the S & P 500 is up more than 8%, with the low end of the firm's range suggesting the benchmark could fall 10% from Friday's close. When an asset breaks above its 50-day moving average, it is seen as a sign of strong momentum. The S & P 500 on Monday rose, breaking above its 50-day moving average. The Nasdaq is also trading above its 50-day average.

Persons: Piper Sandler, Craig Johnson, Stocks Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq Locations: Friday's, U.S

☆ A 26-year-old stock trader who made over $10.5 million in 4 years shares the strategy adjustment he made in 2024 that has allowed him to remain profitable
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-04 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In 2017, at 19 years old, Jack Kellogg became interested in stock trading. AdvertisementIn 2023, he took advantage of the AI hype by trading stocks within that theme. He then reviews these stocks' price movements over the previous three to two weeks. Where it's set depends on how much he's willing to risk on each position and varies based on the stock's price movements. While he's agnostic about the stock's cap size, he favors swing trading mid and sometimes small-cap stocks.

Persons: Jack Kellogg, Timothy Sykes, Kellogg, Kellogg wasn't Organizations: Business, BI, Trust, Nvidia, CXApp Inc

☆ JPMorgan is cautious on crypto as retail investors dump following ETF hype
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Retail dollars flowed out of bitcoin ETFs in April, and investors should adopt a cautious stance on the cryptocurrency for now, according to JPMorgan. "The past two weeks saw significant selling/profit taking with perhaps retail investors playing a bigger role than institutional investors," JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a note Thursday. "Indeed, not only have spot bitcoin ETFs seen outflows in April but our proxies of the retail impulse into equities have also downshifted over the past month." Panigirtzoglou noted that in addition to crypto, retail investors also sold equities in April and that the impulse into stocks has also shifted down. "This is shown by … the net flow into equity funds including ETFs and mutual funds, typically used by retail investors … [which] turned negative in April after strong buying in February and March," he said.

Persons: JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Panigirtzoglou, cryptocurrencies Organizations: JPMorgan, Metrics, Investors, Federal

☆ Recent breakdown suggests $52,000 is the next stop for bitcoin, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( David Keller | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With bitcoin finally breaking below that support level at $60k this week, we see much further downside potential before the long-term uptrend resumes. You may also notice the breakdown below an ascending 50-day moving average during the second week in April. Going into May, bitcoin is making lower lows and lower highs, and now sits below a downward-sloping 50-day moving average. BTC.CM= 1Y mountain Bitcoin, 1-year Where could we expect potential support if the downtrend continues? The 200-day moving average is right around there, and big round numbers like $50k and $60k have often served as important thresholds for the cryptocurrency.

Persons: Bitcoin, bitcoin, It's, David Keller Organizations: RSI, CMT

☆ S&P 500 forming a troubling 'bear flag' pattern, Wolfe Research says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Technical analyst Rob Ginsberg said in a note to clients late Tuesday that the recent bounces for the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 look suspiciously like "bear flags," an ominous chart pattern. "Equities ended the month on a sour note, as last week's dead cat bounces stalled out beneath resistance. A "bear flag" is a technical pattern that sometimes develops during short-term bounces in a broader market decline. Last week, the S & P 500 rose 2.7%, its best weekly performance since November. Ginsberg said in the note that he sees potential downside to the 4,800 level on the S & P 500, which would equal a further decline of about 4.5%.

Persons: Rob Ginsberg, doesn't, Ginsberg Organizations: Wolfe Research, Nasdaq

☆ Bitcoin losses could steepen after the cryptocurrency breaks below $60,000, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The bitcoin sell-off could get worse before it gets better, according to analysts who look only at price charts. The downtrend intensified on Wednesday when it tumbled under the $60,000 level for the first time since February, as stubborn inflation and uncertainty around Federal Reserve interest rate policy kept markets under pressure. That was a key support level for bitcoin, representing the approximate convergence of the March low and 100-day moving average, according to Ari Wald, an analyst at Oppenheimer. Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg said $60,000 bitcoin looks "vulnerable" and that $50,000 could be in play. Bitcoin traded between $60,000 and $74,000 since mid-March, when the cryptocurrency reached new records and has failed multiple times to break out.

Persons: Ari Wald, Oppenheimer, It's, bitcoin, David Keller, Wald, Keller, Geoff Kendrick, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Bitcoin, —, Michael Bloom, Rob Ginsberg's Organizations: CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ Bitcoin tumbles 5%, tests key $60,000 price level as sell signal looms
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The crypto tested $60,000 on Tuesday and fell below a key support level of $61,100, according to Katie Stockton. Stockton said bitcoin is on the verge of flashing a sell signal based on a weekly momentum indicator. AdvertisementThe price of bitcoin dropped 5% on Tuesday, sending the cryptocurrency to test the key psychological level of $60,000. But bitcoin is on the verge of experiencing a double whammy as it breaks below a key technical support level and flashes a technical sell signal, according to Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton. According to Stockton, bitcoin lost momentum near its 50-day moving average of about $66,900, which proved to be stiff technical resistance.

Persons: Bitcoin, Katie Stockton, bitcoin, —, Stockton Organizations: Service Locations: Stockton

☆ Corporate earnings solid so far, despite threats from a slowing economy and sticky inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Valuations coming down So if earnings are up, why is the S & P off its highs? Today, a month later, 2024 earnings estimates are essentially the same but the multiple has declined to 20.8. The S & P 500 hit a low of 4,117 on Oct. 27 and only recovered when rates came down in early November. There are some big drags on earnings Some companies are seeing large declines in earnings estimates that are weighing on their sectors. When including this one-time item, the S & P 500 earnings growth rate for the first quarter declines to 5.6%, from 8.7%, LSEG has noted.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Christopher Suh, Stephen Squeri, Hess, Nick Raich, LSEG, Hal Lawton, Brian Niccol, CNBC's Kate Rogers, Horton, Paul Romanowski, Kimberly, Clark, Michael Hsu Organizations: Companies, Netflix, JPMorgan, GE Aerospace, Caterpillar, Microsoft, Merck, Ford, Waste Management, Royal, Consumer, American Express, Energy, Marathon Petroleum, Apache, Valero Energy, Oil, Occidental Petroleum, Devon Energy, ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil, Scout, Bristol Myers Squibb, Karuna Therapeutics, Boeing, Nvidia, Meta, AMD Locations: financials, industrials, Royal Caribbean, North America

☆ Apple shares could be primed for a rebound, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-24 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Investors have gotten so used to the stock making new highs every year that during the times in which this doesn't happen, concerns intensify. AAPL vs. its 200-day moving average AAPL has also been trading below its 200-day moving average for over two months. Indeed, it's spent more time below the long-term moving average over the years, but reclaiming the line has triggered newfound strength in the past. The big topping pattern is not bearish Another potential positive is that Apple's sporting a big bearish topping pattern on its weekly chart. DISCLOSURES: Cappelleri personally owns AAPL stock.

Persons: There's, it's, Said, AAPL, Cappelleri Organizations: Apple, Downside

☆ Here's why this financial technology fund could break out during earnings season
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-24 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Technical analyst Rob Ginsberg said in a note to clients Wednesday that the Global X FinTech ETF (FINX) looks attractive after a long period of underperforming the broader market. "Now that we're past much of the big bank earnings, there are a number of fintech and financial service names on the docket this week and next. FINX 5Y mountain The FINX ETF has shown early signs of a rebound in 2024. Ginsberg wrote that the ETF has some positive technical signals of its own. To be sure, earnings reports could prove to be a downside catalyst for financial technology stocks and the fund.

Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: titans, Wolfe Research, Paypal Locations: Fintech, FINX

☆ A bearish options trade on this health care giant that's starting to show signs of cracking
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-23 | by ( Nishant Pant | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

However, with broader market indicators showing signs of weakness, UNH is starting to reveal cracks — and the once-strong rally appears to be losing steam. The trade setup The trade structure I am using here is called a "bear put spread." Most trading platforms will offer a bear put spread (or long put spread) as a trade type and automatically construct the trade for you. Since the width of our spread is $495– $490 = $5, I can buy the spread for $2.50. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: UnitedHealth, UNH, ADX, Nishant Pant Organizations: Change, ½

☆ A pullback in this biotech stock has created a buying opportunity, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( Katie Stockton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Amgen has been in pullback mode since the beginning of February, losing roughly 13% within the context of its long-term uptrend. For those interested in "buying the dip," this may be a good time to revisit the stock, noting the decline looks overdone in the short term. There has been a positive reaction from AMGN to a short-term counter-trend "buy" signal from Tom DeMARK's TD Combo model, which supports a minimum two-week bounce. With Friday's reversal bar on AMGN's daily chart, combined with today's strength, our preferred momentum indicator the daily MACD is back on a "buy" signal. The MACD also shows a positive short-term divergence, supporting a bigger relief rally for AMGN in the near term.

Persons: Amgen, Tom DeMARK's Organizations: AMGN

☆ This little-known stock is one of the few making new highs. The charts signal it can keep going
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

On Tuesday, 267 S & P 500 stocks made new 20-day lows. Only one S & P 500 component made a new 20-day high. As is clear, the stock has broken out of one bullish pattern (blue) and is trying to trigger another one (green). Lastly, VLTO's former parent company, DHR, has underperformed both the S & P 500 and the industrials sector since it topped in 2021. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: it's, VLTO, It's, Frank Cappelleri

☆ 'Volatility could explode': The S&P 500 is ripe for a correction as tensions in the Middle East flare and inflation sticks, experts warn. Here's what to do with your money.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Since late October last year, the S&P 500 has risen as much as 27% on strong economic data and excitement about AI. Losses were steepest last week when Iran fired missiles at Israel, exacerbating regional and global tensions. But as more labor market and inflation data has come out, investors now believe a cut is off the table until at least July. The S&P 500 has now dipped below its 20-day moving average, like it did last summer when yields rose above 4.35%. "The VIX, SKEW and Put/Call Ratio all indicate that sophisticated investors are on edge and volatility could explode to 52-week highs in the weeks ahead," Essaye said.

Persons: —, that's, Israel, James Demmert, Demmert, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Tom Essaye, Essaye, selloff, Solita, It's, Marcelli, it's Organizations: Service, Business, Brent, Research, Federal Reserve, LPL, MAs, UBS Americas, UBS Global Investment Locations: Iran, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen

☆ A bearish options trade that wins if the AI-led chip stock rally runs out of steam
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Nishant Pant | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

I'll discuss a bearish options hedge on a member of the chip sector that appears to be breaking down. Below is a 6-month daily chart of the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) , which monitors the chip sector. Among the semiconductor stocks, Micron (MU) stands out as a notable example. However, since securities can remain overbought for extended periods, it's important to wait for the RSI to dip below 70 before considering a bearish trade setup. The Trade Setup: The trade structure I am using here is called a "bear put spread" also known as "put debit spread".

Persons: Nishant Pant, Nishant Organizations: Nvidia, iShares Semiconductor, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, MU, YTD

☆ It may be time for investors to sell Nvidia on the next bounce, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( Katie Stockton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

This would imply that investors can hold NVDA, for now, but may want to reduce exposure after a bigger bounce. —Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.

Persons: Let's, NVDA, Katie Stockton Organizations: Nvidia, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities Locations: overbought

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