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Despite the major indexes trading near their all-time highs, there are still plenty of stocks that JPMorgan is bearish on in the coming quarter. Against this backdrop, JPMorgan surveyed its analysts for their top short ideas, or stocks that might underperform going into the fourth quarter. Shares have risen 9% in 2024, leading to what JPMorgan analyst Michael Rehaut believes is an expensive valuation. JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Goldman also has an underweight rating on Beyond Meat . "Plant-based meat continues to struggle as the fad fades," the analyst wrote.
Persons: Stocks, Stanley Black, Decker, Michael Rehaut, Kenneth Goldman, Stephen Tusa, Mark Strouse Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal, Traders, Rockwell Automation, ROK, FuelCell Energy Locations: , underinvestment
Conagra Brands' stock fell sharply this week after the packaged-food company reported quarterly earnings that fell well short of analysts' expectations. We'll discuss how to play it with options if this company is caught in a longer-term decline. For the fiscal first quarter ending August 25, Conagra posted an adjusted eps of 53 cents a share, missing estimates. However, the most significant institutional options trades weren't betting on considerable upside. CAG YTD mountain Conagra, YTD Conagra traded eight times the average daily options volume, with puts outpacing calls.
Persons: Conagra, YTD Conagra, Seinfeld, we'll, T Rowe Price Organizations: Brands, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
October is already living up to its volatile reputation
  + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The S & P 500 fell nearly 1% to kick off the new month of trading. The Nasdaq Composite shed more than 1.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.4%, or 173 points. The Cboe Volatility Index , Wall Street's preferred fear gauge, swelled abpve 20 — its highest level since Sept. 11. I am bracing for added volatility and the market to over-trade daily headlines and themes," he said in a note to clients Wednesday. CNBC Pro found that the S & P 500 averages a daily move of 1.3% in either direction in October, based on FactSet data going back to 1950.
Persons: Street's, Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs, Baird, Harley, Davidson Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, West Texas, CNBC Pro Locations: Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Milwaukee
As a new month looms, Wall Street expects its favorite stocks to outperform — no matter what October might bring. Against this backdrop, CNBC Pro screened for Wall Street's favorite names that analysts believe could rally from here. Read's $150 price target is way above the consensus $137, and about 43% higher than where ConocoPhillips closed Friday. Analysts are also bullish on fellow energy producer Diamondback Energy , with the stock's upside to average price target coming in at 30%. Other stocks on Wall Street's list of favorites include casino operator MGM Resorts International and biotechnology firm Biogen .
Persons: Janney Montgomery, Dan Wantrobski, Wall, Goldman Sachs, Toshiya Hari, Wells, Roger Read, Read's, Piper Sandler, Mark Lear Organizations: Federal Reserve, November's U.S, CNBC Pro, Semiconductor, Micron Technology, Micron, Wall Street, ConocoPhillips, Diamondback Energy, Diamondback, Endeavor, MGM Resorts International Locations: November's, Friday's, Wells Fargo, Houston, Midland, 3Q24
He's a quant fund manager who uses hundreds of models to execute trades across multiple assets. And he's good at what he does: in the 2023 World Cup Championship of Futures Trading, Scherman finished first with a 491.4% return, according to competition records. I was trading in the Argentina market," Scherman said. This is because a trader can't predict the next market regime and must prove that their thesis can survive changes. "I need to have the capital to recover from that loss," Scherman said.
Persons: Ivan Scherman, , Scherman, hadn't, David Aronson, shouldn't, it's Organizations: Futures, Service, New York Stock Exchange, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, University of Buenos, Argentine Financial Markets Institute Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, University of Buenos Aires
Although it is very volatile and exhibits wild swings, in the 1-year daily chart shown below, it becomes evident how confined its movement is within a well-defined trading range. Whenever it breaches one of these levels, it quickly stabilizes in a new trading range. Based on this analysis, I am considering a bearish set-up while keeping the top of its current trading range in mind. The trade Given the bearish outlook, I'm using a call credit spread as my trade structure. If the index stays below $2,260 by the expiration date, the trade will yield an ROI of 42% on the capital risked.
Persons: Russell, Nishant Pant Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 have broken out to new highs this month. BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky asked this week, referring to the S & P 500. The S & P 500 had risen more than 5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was higher by more than 1%. For the S & P 500, those levels represent declines of about 6% to 9%, as of Thursday's close. Initial Claims (09/28) 9:45 a.m. PMI Composite final (September) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Services SA final (September) 10 a.m.
Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, Dow, Adam Turnquist, LPL Financial's Turnquist, Jeff Hirsch, he's bullish, Hirsch wouldn't, Lamb Weston, Nonfarm Payrolls, , Nick Wells Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, CNBC, Nasdaq, LPL, Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed, PMI, Manufacturing, Nike, McCormick, ADP, PMI Services SA, Services PMI, Constellation Locations: Europe, U.S, Chicago
Most analysts think that September's top-performing stocks could continue their ascent. September is a traditionally dicey for stocks: It's the worst month of the year for the S & P 500 , according to the Stock Trader's Almanac . With October right around the corner, CNBC Pro used FactSet data to screen for this month's top-performing stocks in the S & P 500 and find out where analysts see them going next. Constellation Energy is up more than 30% on the month, making it September's second-highest performer in the S & P 500. Power company Vistra has surged nearly 196% in 2024, and it's the top performer in the S & P 500 this month.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, David Arcaro, Vistra, Jefferies, Julien Dumoulin, Smith, Raymond James, Brian Gesuale Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones, CNBC Pro, Analysts, Constellation Energy, Microsoft, Constellation, Energy, Software, Palantir Technologies, Oracle, Delta Air Lines Locations: Thursday's
In fact, the S & P 500 is on pace for a winning September — its first since 2019 — with a gain of more than 1%. The month is typically the worst stretch of the year on average for all three major averages and the Russell 2000, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Some of September's strength could be attributed to the Federal Reserve's supersized rate cut last week . The S & P 500 notched a fresh record close on Monday and an intraday all-time high on Tuesday. The benchmark S & P 500 typically pulls back nearly 1% on average in October in election years, per the Stock Trader's Almanac.
Persons: , Russell, Gary Pzegeo Organizations: Federal, CIBC Private Wealth Management
Today is triple witching expiration , the quarterly expiration of single stock and index options, and index futures. It's occurring at an unusual moment: the S & P 500 is at an historic high. Week after triple witch: poor Unfortunately, the week after the September triple witch is historically among the weakest of the year. S & P 500 rebalancing today The S & P 500 will see three new entrants at the close today, each of which will begin trading as part of the S & P on Monday: Dell Technologies , Erie Indemnity and Palantir Technologies . Finally, while the S & P 500 is at a new high, the Russell 2000 smallcap index is not far behind.
Persons: Chris Murphy, Jeff Hirsch, Dow Industrials, Hirsch, Dell, Russell Organizations: Stock, Nasdaq, Dell Technologies, Erie, Palantir Technologies, Etsy, Rad Laboratories, American Airlines Group Locations: Susquehanna
With that seasonal volatility in mind, Evercore ISI screened for stocks that may continue to outperform in the current climate. The investment bank combed through the Russell 3000 for stocks that are in the top quintiles for momentum, sentiment and buybacks. One company that made the Evercore ISI screen was mobile tech company AppLovin . Evercore ISI also highlighted Sprouts Farmers Market as a potential outperformer. Evercore ISI upgraded Sprouts to outperform from in line this week.
Persons: Russell, LSEG, BTIG, Benjamin Budish, Robinhood, Michael Montani Organizations: Stock, Federal, UBS, FactSet, Financial, LSEG, Barclays, ISI
Read previewThis as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with a 42-year-old vice president at a Wall Street bank in New York City. I work in tech for a Wall Street bank, and I quiet vacation. I do the bare minimum work for my Wall Street job because the pay and bonuses aren't as good as they used to beI wanted to work on Wall Street because of the money. Even on Wall Street, it seems like once people fall into a way of thinking, they stick with it their entire lives. On Wall Street, it's more important not to make any mistakes than to see how many hours someone can sit in an office.
Persons: , I've, he'd, I'm, Lauryn Haas Organizations: Service, Business, Microsoft, lhaas Locations: New York City, Virginia, Atlantic City, Ocean City
During the live portion of the finale, Jenn reveals that Devin broke up with her in August during a 15-minute phone call. Jenn and Devin during the live "Bachelorette" finale. John Fleenor/DisneyBefore the proposal was shown on TV, host Jesse Palmer brought out an emotional Jenn to reveal the surprising status of their relationship. She explained that after leaving Hawaii engaged, she felt like Devin was acting distant. After Devin joined the stage during the live finale, Jenn confronted him.
Persons: Jenn, Devin, John Fleenor, Jesse Palmer, Instagram —, Maria, Maria Georgas, I'm Organizations: Disney, Hawaii, Bachelor Nation
The good news outweighs the bad Seasonality aside, the market is riding a wave of momentum, and with good reason: 1) The market "broadening" trend is very real. At Jackson Hole, chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that the Fed had shifted its attention from fighting inflation to the job market. S&P 500 in September: It's been ugly recently (rounded) 2023: down 5%2022: down 9%2021: down 5%2020: down 4% The elections are another wildcard. Two-thirds of the S&P 500 was up in August. Most importantly, the Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) modestly outperformed the S&P 500 in August and closed Friday at an historic high.
Persons: Frank Gretz, Wellington Shields, Robert Hum, It's, Consumer Staples, Jerome Powell, David Smith, Brendan McDermid Organizations: Dow, NASDAQ, Russell, NYSE, Megacap Tech, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Consumer, Estate, Technology, American Association of, Bulls, PCE, Fed, Rockland Trust, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange Locations: Wellington, Meta, Rockland, New York City, U.S
Going back to 1953, the S & P 500 has climbed around 0.5% during the final week of August on a median basis, according to data analyzed by Bespoke Investment Group. That is a bright spot ahead of a historically weak period for the market. September ranks as the worst month on average for the S & P 500 going back to 1950, according to data from the Stock Trader's Almanac. Almanac data shows the S & P 500 is flat on average for the month. .SPX 1M mountain The S & P 500, 1 month The upcoming week also has some events that may move the market in the trading month's final days.
Organizations: Investment Group, Stock, Investors
The massive resurgence in volatility (as measured by the Cboe Volatility Index - VIX ) has revealed market vulnerability coupled with significant uncertainty. With the VIX hitting a multi-year high of 65 this week, elevated options premiums offer higher risk/reward scenarios. .VIX YTD mountain Cboe Volatility Index, YTD The VIX, also known as Wall Street's "fear gauge", vaulted above 60 earlier this week, the highest since pandemic induced volatility back in March 2020. In the event you disagree with my bullish view, feel free to take the other side of this trade. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: Lehman Organizations: Lehman Brothers, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
An employee stands by a logo for Glencore Agriculture in Glencore Plc's offices in Rotterdam, Netherlands. Glencore's former head of oil Alex Beard has been charged with bribery offences relating to the Swiss commodity trader's operations in Africa, Britain's Serious Fraud Office said on Thursday. Beard, 56, is charged with two conspiracies to make corrupt payments to government officials and officials of state-owned oil companies in Nigeria between 2010 and 2014 and in Cameroon between 2007 and 2014, the SFO said. He is one of five ex-Glencore employees charged with conspiracy to make corrupt payments.
Persons: Glencore's, Alex Beard, Beard Organizations: Glencore Agriculture, SFO Locations: Glencore, Rotterdam , Netherlands, Africa, Nigeria, Cameroon
The put is OTM because the strike price is below the spot price. Related storiesIf you have a bullish outlook on the IWM, you expect the share price to continue rising or at least not drop below the strike price. Picking the appropriate strike price is subjective and based on a trader's risk tolerance and the premium they're looking for. Tastylive, options chainSince options contracts are purchased in lots of 100, it could seem nerve-racking to think you may need to accept delivery of those shares. Worst-case scenario, you end up owning IWM shares at a cost below what you would have bought them for on the spot market, Dierking said.
Persons: Russell, Liz Dierking, Dierking, IWM, That's Organizations: Service, Nasdaq Locations: IWM
For some car owners, it might be more financially savvy to rent a vehicle for a road trip than use their own, experts said. Drivers would need to compare total rental costs — the daily rental rate and potential add-ons like insurance — versus those of operating their own car. "Most people will be shocked at what it actually costs to own and operate their car," Brannon said. The cost of rental car insurance might add $30 to $61 to the daily rate, depending on insurance type, according to Allianz Travel, citing MarketWatch data. Car owners may already get full coverage on a rental via their own car insurance policies, or may have some coverage through credit-card benefits, Brannon said.
Persons: Patchareeporn, Greg Brannon, Brian Moody, Autotrader, Moody, Brannon, Hopper, Alistair Berg, Digitalvision, Kelley, KBB, Autotrader's Moody Organizations: AAA, Toyota, Allianz Travel, Finance, Car, Getty, Allianz, State
A trading mistake at Citigroup in 2022 has led to a $78 million fine against the bank. The "fat-finger" trade caused a brief flash crash in European stocks in May 2022. The brief flash crash caused by the mistaken trade briefly wiped out $322 billion in market value. A trader in Citigroup's London unit entered one too many zeros in a trade in May 2022, sparking a short-lived flash crash in European stocks. AdvertisementThe $78 million fine from UK regulators is in addition to about $50 million Citigroup lost on the trade, bringing the total cost of the fat-finger trade to about $130 million.
Persons: Organizations: Citigroup, Service, Bloomberg, Bank of England's Prudential Regulatory Authority Locations: Citigroup's London, Stockholm
Unlike business development in corporate America, which focuses on growing a company's prospects with partners and clients, hedge fund BD teams specialize in scouting, evaluating, and wooing investment talent. AdvertisementFew have been involved in hedge fund BD longer than Jennifer Blake, Balyasny's global head. The fund's BD department remains in close contact with PMs after they join as a resource and advisor. Vernon Yuen/Getty Images$61 billion AUM2,200+ employeesAdvertisementKen Griffin's Citadel has outperformed not just its immediate rivals but every other hedge fund. He runs a team of about 20 as head of business development in the Americas, the largest region of the largest player in this space.
Persons: , Griffin's, Izzy Englander's, Goldman Sachs, Headcount, execs, Dmitry Balyasny, Brendan McDermid, Jennifer Blake, Balyasny's, Morgan Stanley, Dmitri Balyasny's, Blake, it's, Federico Chavarria, Balyasny, Dave Matz, Smith Hanley, Alistair Jacobs, Dave Black, Peter Appel, Federico Chavarria MD, Andrew McHugh, Jules Biolsi, Michael Platt, he's, BlueCrest, Michael Grad, Grad, Jake Lindsay, Mungo Strachan, BlueCrest's, Brevan Howard Brevan Howard, Alan Howard, Ringo Chiu, Brevan Howard, Alan Howard's, Aran Landy, Brevan, Abu, It's, Landy, Howard, Peter Hornick, David Abbou, Jonathan Candy, Gregoire Vidal, Vidal, Tim Williams, Andy Silver, Gautam, Ken Griffin, Vernon Yuen, Ken Griffin's, Griffin, Matt Giannini, Giannini, headhunter, Matt, I've, — Thomas DeAngelis, Lindsay Previdi, Rice, Dore, Eleanor Sharkey, Melinda Urban, Mark Hansen, Julian Ulmer, Mathur, Adam Sharkie, Michael Page, Eisler, Edward Eisler, Sam Wisnia, Chris Milner, Milner, Hilary Curran, Hilary Curran Global, Rebecca Zisser, Michael Gelband, Hornick, Jeff Gelband, Mike Tiano, Eric Han, Garrett Berg, Liu, APAC Blackstone, Euan Shand, Kevin Carroll, Emily, Needham, Ostendorf, Ben Levine, Stefan Renold, LMR, Marcus Fairhurst, He'd, LMR's, Izzy, Ronda, Singh, Mark Meskin, Justin Gmelich, Steve Keller, Benjamin Williams, Madhvani, Paritosh Singh, Ben Williams, Kristina Tully, Steven Cohen, Point72, Shayanne, Steve Cohen's, Harry Schwefel, Chandler, Steve Cohen, JT Shields, They're, Schwefel, Alyssa Friedman —, Chandler Bocklage, Reid Murphy, Jae Yang, Japan Goldman Sachs, Alyssa Friedman, Jackie Dai, Gabriel Sanders, Ajay, Steven Schonfeld, Michael Nagle, Steve Schonfeld's, Ryan Tolkin, Schonfeld, doesn't, Akshay Aggarwal, Alex Burns, Ryan McCort, Colin Lancaster, Mitesh, Sameer Buch, Brittany Lynch, DMFI, Goldman, Verition, Nicholas Maounis, Josh Goldstein, Brian Townes, Townes, Elizabeth Xiang MD, Vir, Steve Satenstein, Chris Svoboda, Will England, Thomas DeAngelis, DeAngelis, Jonathan Brenner, hasn't, Maureen Reed, John Sullivan, Brenner, Walleye's Organizations: Service, Management, Wall, Business, Balyasny, Balyasny Asset Management, Quadra Advisors, SAC, Macquarie, BD, UBS, Grad, Financial Times, Michael, Lascaux, Howard BD, Brevan, Argentum Advisors, BH Digital, McKinsey & Company, JPMorgan, Ken Griffin's Citadel, Citadel, Citadel's, decamping, Chicago, Citadel BD, Walleye Capital, of Surveyor, Millennium, Capital, Credit, Ashler, Rice, Deutsche Bank, LMR Partners, London, Dore Partnership, Soros, Soros Fund, Ronda Churchill, Bloomberg, Getty, Guggenheim, Industry, MLP, Americas Guggenheim, Americas Citadel, SAC Capital, SEC, Point72 Academy, Citigroup, BD Energi, Japan, EMEA, APAC BNP, Schonfeld, PAAMCO, KKR, DMC Partners, Topwater, LinkedIn, New, New Holland Capital, BD —, Walleye, Lehman Brothers, Hutchin, Putnam Investments, ~$ Locations: America, Asia, Balyasny, Blackstone, New Holland, Abu Dhabi, BlueCrest, Europe, Graticule, ExodusPoint, Hornick, Freestone, New York, Schonfeld, Brevan, he's, Aberdeen, Hong Kong, Zurich, Glasgow, Dubai, Americas, Point72, quant, Verition, London, Greenland, Minnesota, Citadel
Inflation canceled that, and now it's almost certain that Wall Street's summer is canceled, too. That means Wall Street's fantasies of decamping to the Hamptons for the summer have shattered. You can see why this tug-of-war will keep Wall Street on its toes and off Georgica Beach. There is a certain set on Wall Street that does not get to "rosé all day" on Hamptons summer water when currencies trade that way. The simplicity that Wall Street hoped for is one of the few options that's no longer on the table.
Persons: , Justin Simon, decamping, Jerome Powell, opportunistically, Jamie Dimon, Torsten Slok, Slok, Powell, we'd, David Lefkowitz, dory, McDonald's, Silas Myers, Wall, Zuck, Simon, they're, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Jasper Capital, Nasdaq, Hamptons, JPMorgan, Fed, Pepsi, Mar Vista Investments, Wall, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, EU Locations: Georgica, Japan
The S & P 500 is down by more than 3% this month, though it has still registered a more than 6% advance for the year. But many investors worry stocks have further to go before finding a durable bottom. They say stocks look overvalued even after the recent pullback, and they cite troubling headwinds for equities. 'Sell in May and go away' May has a reputation as a historically weak month for stocks. Carson Group's Ryan Detrick noted that stocks have actually been higher in May during the last nine out of 10 years.
Persons: Mark Luschini, Janney Montgomery Scott, Jeff Hirsch, he's, It's, Hirsch, Carson Group's Ryan Detrick, we've Organizations: Investors, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Treasury Bond ETF
It's not just that it has been a down month (down 3.0% for the S & P 500, breaking a 5-month win streak). However, weaker does not mean down. The S & P, even in the weakest five months, was still up almost 2%. The bottom line: market timing is always a tricky affair. Many of these timing maxims could be trumped by an even better one: "It's time in the market that matters, not market timing."
Persons: It's, Nicholas Colas, Jeff Hirsch, it's Organizations: Dow, Stock Locations: It's, DataTrek
A onetime commodities backwater, congestion trading has become a growing business in recent years as the demand for electricity and volatility on the power grid in the US has soared. The financial category, which includes specialized power-trading companies, banks, hedge funds, and large proprietary trading firms, dominates the market, in part because the physical power firms typically operate in only one or two regions. He launched three congestion trading teams for the firm, including in California and Texas after those states introduced congestion trading in 2008 and 2010, respectively. Citadel, along with Susquehanna International Group and Tower Research, has been involved in FTR trading since the market's infancy. Volatility has been increasing on the power grid, in part because of changing weather patterns, Jeev added.
Persons: Kumar Jeev, Jane Street, Richard Roseblade, who's, There's, Roseblade, Bill Clark, Jeev, DC Energy's Tyler Kuhn, DRW, California Al Seib, Brevan Howard, Jane, Stephanie Staska, Staska, couldn't, Joe Biden's, It's, Meredith Angwin, Angwin Organizations: Business, Capital, Midwest, Citadel, Tower Research, Yes Energy, Energy, Anadolu, Getty, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, FERC, Nasdaq, York Stock Exchange, Nvidia, Johns Hopkins University, DC Energy, Wayfair, Squarepoint, Appian, Boston Energy, Susquehanna International Group, DC, Bloomberg, Commodities, Traders, Wall Street, Workers, GreenHat Energy, JPMorgan, Hill Energy Resource & Services, P, Grid, & $ Locations: Wall, East Coast, DRW, Susquehanna, FTRs, New York, Canada, Texas, Virginia, California, Berlin, Chicago, Oregon, California Al, Ukraine, Russian, Uri, Northern Virginia
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