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The only potential competitive congressional race to watch in those states is Indiana’s 1st District, where Democrat Rep. Frank Mrvan is running for re-election. Here are some early bellwethers to watch:Two Virginia districts offer a glimpseTwo congressional districts in Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m. Both districts may be valuable early indicators of how the election is playing out in the suburbs, which are key to Democratic victories up and down the ballot. North Carolina’s 1st District: Test of Black voteThis district in North Carolina, where polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET, will provide a valuable early gauge of the Black vote, one of the most important questions of the 2024 election cycle.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Frank Mrvan, Randy Niemeyer, Harris, Trump, Jen Kiggans, Missy Cotter Smasal, Cotter, Harris ’, Joe Biden, Biden, Eugene Vindman, Derrick Anderson, Abigail Spanberger, Vindman, Trump’s, Alexander, Anderson, Eugene, that’d, ”, Kyle Kondik, Republicans redrew, Laurie Buckhout, Don Davis, ’, Marcy Kaptur, Derek Merrin, Kaptur Organizations: GOP, Democratic, Republican, Republicans, NBC, University of Virginia, GOP Army, Black, Trump Country, Trump Locations: East Coast, Indiana, Kentucky, Virginia, Virginia Beach, Fredericksburg, swingy, Northern Virginia, Ukraine, Northern Virginia , Virginia, Carolina’s, North Carolina, Ohio’s, Ohio’s 9th, Toledo

Their clash has already drawn more ad spending than any other Senate race in history, eclipsing the $412 million spent in Georgia’s 2020 race between Jon Ossoff and David Perdue. While Moreno clings to Trump, Brown tends to avoid talking too much about national political figures from either party. “Sherrod Brown, he’s taking ads in like he’s my best friend,” the former president said Sunday during a rally at Madison Square Garden in New York. He also acknowledged the threat of ticket-splitters — and the importance of Trump having coattails long enough to carry Moreno along with him. But then-Rep. Tim Ryan, a Democrat who represented much of the area for years, lost it to Vance in the Senate race by 3 points in 2022.

Persons: Ohio — Sen, Sherrod Brown, Bernie Moreno, Jon Ossoff, David Perdue, Brown, Moreno, Donald Trump, ” Brown, “, it’s, —, ”, ” Sen, Republican Bernie Moreno, Barack Obama, Bob Taft, Trump, “ Sherrod Brown, “ He’s, ” Moreno, MAGA, Donald Trump Jr, Sen, Lindsey Graham, Graham, “ Trump’s, ” Graham, Kamala Harris, “ I’m, Kamala, Joe Biden, ’ ” Brown, Obama, Brown’s, Rachel Petri, JD Vance, Tim Ryan, Vance, they’ve, ” Petri, Paul Adams, Chuck Schumer, Hunter, “ We’ve, ” Trump, Martin Luther King Jr, Shontel Brown, Chris Ronayne, Moreno “, Andre Washington, — Sherrod Brown, David Brock, He’s, ” Moreno —, Sherrod Organizations: Republicans, Trump, NBC News, Teamsters, Republican, Ohio Senate, Ohio Gov, Madison, Trump’s, Democrat, ”, Democratic, Senate, Trump Jr, Cleveland, Ohio Democratic Party, GOP, Fund, Cuyahoga County Democratic Locations: VERMILION, Ohio, Trump, Youngstown, New York, Erie, swingy Lorain County, Lorain, Lorain County, Cleveland, Delaware, Mahoning counties . Delaware, Columbus, Mahoning, Strongsville, Russia, Lake Erie, Cuyahoga County, I’m

“A complete jump ball,” said Dennis Lennox, a Republican strategist who works in Michigan. “Nobody really knows what will happen.”Beyond the suburbs, Republicans see opportunities to peel off traditionally Democratic voters, like Black men. Now, many Lebanese American and Palestinian American voters in Michigan say they will not vote for Harris under any circumstance. And she signaled that she believes support for Harris from Republicans like Upton could be key to the race. “This is the center of the political universe, here in Michigan.”Alex Seitz-Wald reported from Camden, Maine; Henry Gomez reported from Detroit, Michigan.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Haley Stevens, Harris, Donald Trump, “, ”, she’s, Sen, Mitt Romney, It’s, Liz Cheney, Fred Upton, Trump, Ron Robinson, “ I’ve, ” Robinson, Biden, it’s, Dennis Lennox, “ Trump, ” Lennox, Barack Obama, Pamela, Harris canvasser, —, Obama, I’ve, Liz Cheney's, Alabas, Lyin ’ Kamala Harris, ” Trump, Dick Cheney, Massad Boulos, Tiffany Trump, Boulos, Lara Trump, Trump’s, Jill Stein, ‘, Gretchen Whitmer, Upton, Tim Walz, ” Whitmer, Republicans don’t, Jennifer Conlin, Ann Arbor, “ I’m, ” Conlin, …, ’, Paul Hudson, Hillary Scholten, ” Hudson, ” Alex Seitz, Wald, Henry Gomez Organizations: DETROIT, Democratic, Democrat, Democratic Party, Republican, Utica City, Michigan House, Trump, Michigan Arab, U.S, Lebanese, Palestinian American, Lebanese American Democrat, Dearborn, Renaissance, Republican National Committee, NBC News, Republicans, ” Locations: Michigan, Gaza, Oakland County, Detroit, Bloomfield Hills, R, Utah, ”, Detroit’s Macomb County, Utica, “, LaSalle Washington, Washington, Lebanon, Dearborn, Iraq, Lebanese American, Rochester, Ann, Grand, Camden , Maine, Detroit , Michigan

On Wednesday, House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., joined Rep. Susan Wild, D-Pa., here on a tour of Latino-owned small businesses. Though she is the incumbent and older than Mackenzie, Wild, 67, labeled Mackenzie, 42, a “career politician,” noting he has served in elected office for 12 years — twice as long as her. “She has a failed record on border security,” Mackenzie said in a Thursday interview after a rally with Johnson in Hellertown. “Every state is a border state, as we say, because they opened the border wide, and ya’ll, they did it intentionally, OK? A recent NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll found that support for Harris among Latino voters is at 54%, the lowest level in the past four presidential election cycles.

Persons: Pete Aguilar, Susan Wild, Mike Johnson, Ryan Mackenzie, Hakeem Jeffries, Katherine Clark, Mackenzie, ”, Wild, ” Wild, “, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Aguilar, Billy Joel, —, Matthew Tuerk, Tuerk, Scott Wong, Del Abuelo, Kamala Harris ’, Charlie Dent, Milou Mackenzie, “ She’s, Greenberg Lemus, Del, she’s, ” Mackenzie, Johnson, ” Johnson, Trump, Harris, he’s, hasn’t, Victor Martinez, He’s, Tim Walz, Martinez, It’s, She’s, mischaracterize, he's, you’re Organizations: Congressional, House Democratic, GOP, Republican, NBC, Republicans, Census, Allentown, El, El Tablazo, Democratic, La, Democrat, Steel, Bethlehem Steel, NBC News, Telemundo, CNBC, Allentown’s Puerto Rican Parade, Dominican, ” Radio, Mega Locations: ALLENTOWN, Pa, —, Lehigh, Hellertown, D, Easton, Allentown, Pennsylvania, Aguilar, Lehigh Valley, Philadelphia, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Colombia, Guatemala, Venezuela, New York, New Jersey, U.S, Bethlehem, Dominican, Wild, Harrisburg, Mexican American, Allentown —, Reading, Puerto, ”, Mexican

Like the presidential contest, the Senate race offers deep contrasts in a state that’s been divided neatly in half for years. We want to have a lawfully run election,” Lake said. In 2022, Lake challenged her loss to Hobbs, taking it all the way through the Arizona legal system. “It’s going to be a tight race,” Lake acknowledged. In 2018, Gallego rallied alongside Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., in Phoenix, saying facetiously: “President Trump is going to build a wall.

Persons: Kari Lake, Ruben Gallego, Sen, Kyrsten, Gallego, Katie Hobbs, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, ” Gallego, Harris, Biden, “, haven’t, Lake’s —, Donald Trump’s —, John McCain, McCain, ”, Ruben ”, Paul Hickman, —, he’s, Kate Gallego, Trump, Lake, Hobbs, ” Lake, “ It’s, I’ve, Bernie Sanders, It’s, Donald Trump, they’re “ Organizations: PHOENIX, White, Trump, NBC News, Democratic, Arizona Republican, Republicans, Independents, McCain, Phoenix, Congress, Lake, Senate, Republican, Phoenix Fox, AARP, Harris ’, Democrat Party, Congressional Progressive Caucus, “, Phoenix Police Association, Justice Department, Phoenix Police Department, Phoenix police, NBC, Arizona Police Association Locations: PHOENIX — Arizona, Scottsdale, “, Arizona, Congress, Vietnam, American, Colombian, Ukraine, ”, Israel, Taiwan, Maricopa County, Iowa, Gallego, Phoenix

☆ One month to Election Day. Here’s what to watch
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-05 | by ( Zachary B. Wolf | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

The (Donald) Trump campaign, on the other hand, is looking to the Sun Belt. Instead of knocking on doors in key states, Trump’s allies are using funding from tech billionaire Elon Musk to do some nontraditional things. But some things are still going to be much more expensive on Election Day than they were when Trump was president. It’s one month to Election Day, but that’s a little bit of a misnomer. No matter what happens with the 2024 election, Trump is unlikely to accept the results if Harris wins.

Persons: CNN — It’s, it’s, CNN’s David Wright, Kamala, Harris, – they’ve, Donald, Trump, he’s, Trump’s, Steve Contorno, Fredreka, Elon Musk, Barack Obama, Obama, He’ll, Liz Cheney, George W, Bush, Dick Cheney, Cheney, Amy Walter, ”, Cook, … they’re, ” Walter, Hurricane Helene, Helene, Will, Will Trump’s, Jack Smith’s, Tanya Chutkan, Smith, Read Organizations: CNN, Democratic, Republican, Trump Republicans, Trump, Former Republican, Voters, North, East, Progressives, Democratic National Convention, Israel, Democrats Locations: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, East Coast, Hurricane, Gaza, Israel, Lebanon, Iran, New York

Tim Walz take the stage in New York City for Tuesday night’s vice presidential debate, it will be their first in-person meeting. Given that Trump hasn’t agreed to a second showdown with Harris, Vance vs. Walz could very well be the last debate before Election Day. With all that in mind, here are a few things to watch for as Vance and Walz face off in New York:Does Walz win the expectations game? “I can’t wait to debate the guy,” Walz said, before he alluded to a vulgar false claim made about Vance online. Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Minn., who played Walz in Vance’s debate prep, has compared his state’s governor to the liberal governor of California.

Persons: Sen, JD Vance, Tim Walz, Vance, Walz, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Sarah Palin, ” Walz, he’s, “, ” “, “ Walz, ” Jason Miller, He’s, He’ll, ” Vance, Tim Ryan, Usha, Vance bemoaned, ” Usha Vance, Both Walz, “ He’s, ” Miller, —, Vance isn’t, Trump, Tom Emmer, ” Emmer, Gavin Newsom, won’t Organizations: Minnesota Gov, CBS News, Trump, NBC News, Alaska Gov, Yale Law, MSNBC, United, Democratic, Senate, White House, CNN Locations: R, Ohio, New York City, Trump, New York, Philadelphia, United States, Springfield , Ohio, American, California, Minnesota

☆ 5 Takeaways From Super Tuesday: Trump Wins and Haley Is Set to Exit
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Shane Goldmacher | Adam Nagourney | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Nikki Haley is said to be planning to drop out of the presidential race. Donald J. Trump rolled up victories across the country on Super Tuesday, and by the end of the evening it was clear that the former president had left Nikki Haley in the delegate dust. Ms. Haley plans to make it official on Wednesday morning, according to multiple people familiar with her plans, with an event where she will drop out but not immediately offer her endorsement to Mr. Trump. That is important because tucked inside Mr. Trump’s often dominant statewide victories on Tuesday were signs of vulnerability for the fall. He showed some of the same weakness in the swingy suburban areas that cost him the White House in 2020.

Persons: Nikki Haley, Donald J, Trump, —, Ms, Haley, Trump’s Organizations: Republican, House Locations: Trump’s, California , North Carolina , Tennessee , Texas, Virginia

Our listeners have lots of questions about polling. At this point in a usual primary season, still weeks away from Super Tuesday, most of the attention of polling would be on who might capture the nomination. But this year, with the race all but set, we’re anticipating nine months of polling on two men we already know very well. Today, to prepare for that future and to answer the many questions on the subject, we go behind the scenes with the New York Times polling team. And Nate Cohn, our chief political analyst, introduces us to “double haters” and other swingy voters he thinks will decide 2024.

Persons: Nate Cohn Organizations: Super, New York Times

☆ Come on, people: there's never going to be a bipartisan coalition running the House
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Bryan Metzger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

The ousting of Kevin McCarthy has thrown the House back into chaos, and there's no clear successor. Some have speculated that a "compromise speaker" or "coalition government" could emerge. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe fall of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy at the hands of Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida has revived talk of something relatively uncommon in American politics — a "compromise speaker" or "bipartisan coalition" emerging to govern the increasingly ungovernable House of Representatives. As the dust settled after the vote to boot McCarthy on Tuesday, I spotted Republican Rep. Mike Lawler walking away from the Capitol. "The Texas example is that sometimes you vote for a Republican speaker, but then you get a third of the chairs," Casar told me on Tuesday.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, There's, —, Matt Gaetz, Let's, it's, McCarthy, Hakeem Jeffries, Maxwell Frost of, Jeffries, Mike Lawler, Lawler, Joe Biden, he's, Biden, Tom Williams, ", We've, Jamie Raskin, Donald Trump, Greg Casar, Casar, didn't, materializing, they're, Wiley Nickel, ” Tom Williams, Nick LaLota, bode Organizations: Service, Representatives, Republican, Moderate Republicans, Democratic, Republicans, Capitol, MAGA Republicans, Getty, Maryland, Trump, Democratic Rep, Congressional Progressive Caucus, America, Wall Street Locations: Florida, Maxwell Frost of Florida, New York, Texas, North Carolina, Ukraine

☆ In Florida Upset, Democrat Wins Jacksonville Mayor’s Race
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Patricia Mazzei | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

MIAMI — Donna Deegan, a Democrat, was elected mayor of Jacksonville on Tuesday, shaking up the politics of Florida’s largest city, where Republican mayors have been in power for all but four of the last 30 years. Ms. Deegan, a former television news anchor, defeated Daniel Davis, a Republican endorsed by Gov. Ron DeSantis, who had been seen as the likely favorite in the traditionally Republican stronghold. In recent years, Jacksonville had been the most populous city in the country with a Republican mayor, Lenny Curry, who is term-limited; that distinction now goes to Fort Worth, Texas. But while Florida has become decidedly more Republican — and while many have viewed Mr. DeSantis, a likely 2024 presidential contender, as all-powerful in state politics — Jacksonville has emerged as a swingy corner of the state.

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