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☆ JPMorgan's guide to trading two huge economic reports this week
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

On Thursday, traders get the latest reading on the state of the consumer with retail sales data for July. Hot CPI and inline retail sales (up 0.1% to 0.5%) — JPM believes that a hot CPI print and retail sales matching expectations could fuel "stagflation risks." Expect the S & P 500 to gain and Nasdaq and Russell to perform similarly. Inline CPI and cool retail sales — How much equities move in this outcome depends on the magnitude of the downside surprise in retail sales. In this scenario, traders expect a broadening in the market that includes the S & P 500 gaining.

Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Powell, Jackson, — JPM, Russell, JPM Organizations: Federal, JPMorgan, CPI, Wall, Federal Reserve, Bank of, Nasdaq, Russell

☆ Trump 2.0 could be bad news for global inflation, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Brendan Smialowski | Afp | Getty ImagesA second presidential term for former President Donald Trump could reignite global inflation as his America-first policies drive up costs across the world, analysts warned. "The level of inflation is higher, inflation expectations are higher, and we're still in this inflation mindset." A recent poll of economists suggested, however, that the majority see inflation ticking higher under Trump due to his hard-line protectionist stance. watch nowThat higher inflation could spill over into Asia, too, Nomura's Gareth Nicholson said in a note to CNBC. In Europe, Goldman Sachs predicted in a Friday note that a Trump presidency could add a 0.1 percentage point increase to inflation as higher tariffs weigh on global trade.

Persons: Donald Trump, Brendan Smialowski, Michael Metcalfe, CNBC's, we're, Joe Biden, Trump, Nomura's Gareth Nicholson, Goldman Sachs, Manulife's Marc Franklin Organizations: Republican, Convention, Afp, Getty, Street Global Markets, Trump, Biden, CNBC, Republican National Convention Locations: Milwaukee , Wisconsin, America, U.S, Asia, Europe, China, Milwaukee, Pennsylvania

☆ How to trade this week’s CPI report, according to JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 would increase 0.25%-0.75% under this outcome. 15% chance — CPI rises 0.25%-0.3%: The S & P 500 would drop 0.75%-1.25% under this scenario, as such a report could show shelter prices increasing. 15% chance — CPI gains by 0.1%-0.15%: This outcome would be viewed favorably by investors as it could signal accelerating "goods disinflation." The S & P 500 would jump 1%-1.5%. 2.5% chance — CPI rises more than 0.3%: Such a hot inflation report would spark a 1.25%-2.5% sell-off in the S & P 500, JPMorgan traders think.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, CPI, JPMorgan

☆ The first US presidential debate will have some noticeable differences
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at the first — and somewhat unconventional — US presidential debate happening tonight . Evan Vucci/AP images, Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP images, Tyler Le/BIIt didn't come easy, and it won't feel quite the same, but we're getting our first US presidential debate tonight. AdvertisementBut don't be surprised by some noticeable differences from what you've come to expect when two presidential candidates face off. And this marks the first presidential debate the platform navigates under the Elon Musk regime. In other newsAdvertisementWhat's happening todayRFK Jr., who did not qualify for the CNN presidential debate, will answer debate questions via livestream during his campaign's counter-programming.

Persons: —, Evan Vucci, Manuel Balce Ceneta, Tyler Le, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, it's, Insider's Brent D, Griffiths, Biden, Brent, Chris Szagola, Julien de Rosa, Alice Tecotzky, Cros, Sunny Verghese, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Adam Posen, Posen, Bord, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Mustafa Suleyman, Alberto Miranda, they're, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, Trump, Biden, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, Elon, Getty, Peterson, BI, NFL, RFK Jr Locations: Tesla . Texas, New York, London

☆ Trump's pledge to deport the most US workers in history could trigger recession and an inflation spike, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Trump's vows to carry out a major deportation campaign is a stagflationary threat, Adam Posen told Bloomberg TV. Adding to inflation risk are also Trump's trade proposals, as he pledges to lift tariffs. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementDonald Trump's vow to initiate the country's biggest deportation campaign is a massive stagflationary hazard, risking an economic downturn amid even tighter monetary policy, one think-tank economist said. At the same time, he's also pledged to deport all undocumented workers from the US, which total 7.5 million people, Posen said.

Persons: Trump's, Adam Posen, —, Donald Trump's, Trump, he's Organizations: Bloomberg TV, Service, Republican, Peterson, Business Locations: Posen

☆ Japanese stocks are rallying this year. But one key group of investors is missing
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-24 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Japanese stocks are enjoying a banner year, with foreign investors plowing into the market. Japanese investors are hesitant Japanese investors have long been skeptical of the local stock market after the asset price bubble burst in the early 1990s. Another reason Japanese investors may not be as keen on their domestic market could be the yen falling sharply. Outlook for Japanese stocks still strong Despite the recent bout of selling from local investors and the market's recent struggles, many global investors remain bullish on Japanese stocks. This is another "slow-moving but important tailwind to Japanese stocks," with more room to run, according to Zachary Hill, Horizon Investments head of portfolio management.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Kishida, Julian McManus, Janus Henderson, Bernstein, Zachary Hill, Raymond Chan, Chan, McManus, he's, Warren Buffett Organizations: Japan Exchange Group, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, U.S ., Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Investment, Association, Prime, Nippon, Savings, U.S, Horizon Investments, Federal Reserve, Asia Pacific, Allianz Global Investors, Mitsui, Itochu, Sumitomo Locations: U.S, Japan, Asia

☆ Why the US isn't facing a stagflation threat even as growth slows, according to BofA
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Recent stagflationary forecasts are misguided for this year, Bank of America wrote on Thursday. While first-quarter GDP badly missed estimates, the inflation that was seen was driven by strong consumer spending. That separates it from the US's last bout with stagflation, in 2022, when higher prices were caused by a supply shock. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Fear arose in April when first-quarter GDP missed expectations as inflation figures simultaneously surpassed estimates.

Persons: stagflation, —, Bank of America isn't Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Business

☆ America's big stagflation scare is over
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThe US economy looks to have steered clear of danger after the specter of stagflation spooked markets and put analysts on edge in recent weeks. Further, average hourly earnings unexpectedly declined to 0.2%. And since elevated labor costs are part of the stagflation equation, the dip in average hourly earnings also signaled a period of languid growth will be avoided. It sent alarm bells ringing around stagflation, which occurs when inflation stays high despite a cooling economy.

Persons: —, specter, Marko Kolanovic, Mohamed El, Bank of America's Michael Harnett —, Harnett Organizations: Service, Business, Bank of America, Bloomberg, Bank of America's

☆ Stocks' bull run will end in a bubble or recession, says Bank of America strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks are in a "late secular bull market," BofA's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday research note. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe bull market that's pushed stock prices higher for the past year and a half will probably end in tears, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett warned. Equities are in a "late secular bull market" that likely "ends with [a] bubble and/or recession," the bank's chief investment strategist wrote in a Friday research note seen by Business Insider. Hartnett's bearish stance clashes with the view held by BofA's head of US equity and quantitative strategy, Savita Subramanian, who has predicted that stocks' bull market will last.

Persons: BofA's Michael Hartnett, —, of America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett's, Hartnett, Marko Kolanovic, BofA's, Savita Subramanian, stagflation Organizations: Service, of America's, Business, JPMorgan

☆ The specter of stagflation is back in the news. BofA says investors should buy these 2 areas of the market to capitalize.
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Headlines talking about "stagflation" have rocketed to the most in two years, Bank of America said. Utilities and energy typically benefit the most in stagflationary conditions, the bank said. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementHeadline references to "stagflation" catapulted to a two-year high last week, Bank of America reported, which could start weighing on Wall Street sentiment. We think that view is misguided, as it is based on an apples-to-oranges comparison," the bank wrote last week.

Persons: —, it's, stagflationary Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Tech

☆ Trump says he wants huge tariffs if elected. That could send inflation spiking.
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

But research from the bipartisan Tax Foundation suggests otherwise, and says Trump's 2018 trade war was also economically damaging. The non-partisan Tax Foundation would beg to differ. Tax Foundation estimates that the tariffs then imposed have amounted to an $80 billion tax increase on Americans. Nobody else ever did anything on China," Trump explained. More tariffs under Trump could be poorly timed, as US monetary policy is already struggling to clamp down on current inflation levels.

Persons: Trump, —, Donald Trump, Biden, Kenneth Rogoff Organizations: Time Magazine, Foundation, Service, Time, Republican, Trump, Federal Reserve Locations: China, India, Brazil, United States, Beijing

☆ The stock rally is masking stagflation risk raised by the latest GDP report, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan says the recent stock rebound driven by robust earnings masks looming stagflationary risks. The soft landing narrative is challenged by the first-quarter GDP report. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe recent rally in the stock market, bolstered by a wave of upbeat earnings, is glossing over a host of risks raised by the latest economic data points, JPMorgan said this week. Jamie Dimon and other experts are sounding the alarm, saying the US might be headed for a 1970s-style scenario, complete with a stock market crash.

Persons: —, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, hasn't, Jamie Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Microsoft

☆ Market needs to be 'disabused' of the expectation for two rate cuts this year, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket needs to be 'disabused' of the expectation for two rate cuts this year, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the Fed's inflation fight, why he believes the current economic scenario is nothing like the stagflationary environment of the late 1970s, and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ 3 issues that could make or break the US economy over the next year, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Mohamed El-Erian named three key risks that will determine where US growth is headed in 2024 through 2025. That includes changes to the Fed's inflation target and low-income consumer spending. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementIf Wall Street was wrong about recession odds in 2023 and 2024, forecasting for next year won't be any easier, Cambridge economist Mohamed El-Erian wrote in Project Syndicate. "Given high interest rates and some creditors' loss of enthusiasm, this cohort's willingness to consume will hinge on whether the labor market remains tight," El-Erian wrote.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, —, he's Organizations: Service, Project Syndicate, Federal Reserve, El Locations: Cambridge, El

☆ Stagflation fears just hit Wall Street. Now for the next crucial report on prices
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation reading is due Friday morning. Investors are nervously awaiting the report after first-quarter US GDP came in softer than expected Thursday. Stocks tumbled as the slowdown in GDP, coupled with stubbornly high inflation data, stoked fears of stagflation. Wall Street earlier this year expected that the central bank would ease rates as many as six times in 2024, beginning in March. Yellen said the weaker reading was not “concerning,” mentioning that measures of underlying growth were strong in Thursday’s report.

Persons: Stocks, ”, Ayako Yoshioka, Janet Yellen, Alessandra Galloni, Alicia Wallace, ” Yellen, “, we’ve, Yellen, Read, Freddie Mac, Bryan Mena, Lawrence Yun Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Gross, Commerce Department, Atlanta, Fed, Thursday’s, Group, Traders, Bank of America, Reuters, National Association of Realtors Locations: New York, Yellen

☆ The US economy may be barrelling towards stagflation, an outcome worse than recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The provides the backdrop for stagflation, which can't be combated with rate cuts. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . With additional help from high government spending and the dollar's de-coupling from gold, inflation surged into double digits, while the economy tumbled. The period was so tumultuous that it undid long-standing macroeconomic theories, and required the Fed to step up its role in the economy.

Persons: —, David Donabedian, It's, listlessness, stagflation, Paul Volcker, Jamie Dimon, we've, Pooja Sriram, Powell Organizations: Service, CIBC Private Wealth, OPEC, Economic, of New, Barclays Locations: of New York

☆ Slowing growth plus stubborn inflation add up to a headache for Fed officials
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The slowing growth and stubborn inflation picture emerging in the U.S. economy may not be quite a nightmare scenario for the Federal Reserve, but it at least could make for some restless sleep. Markets had been looking for the string of good readings dating back to mid-2022 to continue, with economists estimating real GDP growth of 2.4% and inflation readings around 3%. What it got was essentially what some on Wall Street called the worst of both worlds, with weakening growth and stubborn price pressures. The Fed will get a more granular look at PCE data on Friday when the Commerce Department releases the monthly figures for March. "We still think Fed cuts are coming this summer, before inflation has sustainably slowed."

Persons: Matthew Ryan, —, Ryan, Steven Blitz, Veronica Clark Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce, Treasury, Commerce Department, TS Lombard, Citigroup, Citi Locations: U.S

☆ Nvidia is in a bubble, stocks will disappoint for a decade, and a recession will strike this year, markets guru warns
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Nvidia is in a bubble, stocks will falter, and a recession will hit this year, Jesse Felder said. The markets guru said the microchip frenzy would fade, and stock-market returns would drop off. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementNvidia hype is a bubble that will burst, stocks will disappoint for the next decade or longer, and a recession will strike this year, Jesse Felder said.

Persons: Jesse Felder, —, outsize, Felder, Jeff Bezos, Meta's Mark Zuckerberg, Jamie Dimon Organizations: Nvidia, Service, Micron

☆ The Fed is going to make inflation worse with rate-cut promises, former central banker says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed could be making inflation even hotter with its promises of rate cuts. That's according to former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, who says the central bank is "goosing" the economy. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve could be mucking up the economy with its promises that it will cut interest rates later this year, according to former central banker Kevin Warsh. Related stories"The Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve … are goosing this economy," Warsh said. "A Fed promising to cut rates even as asset prices are melting up."

Persons: Kevin Warsh, —, Warsh Organizations: Service, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Fed, Treasury Department, Federal

☆ Trump Reelection a Threat to Economy, Could Stoke Inflation, Debt: Roubini
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A Trump reelection in November poses the biggest looming risk to the world economy, Nouriel Roubini warned. A second Trump presidency could end up making inflation and the national debt problem even worse, Roubini said. AdvertisementTrump being reelected might be the biggest looming threat to the global economy, according to "Dr. Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini. Advertisement"With private and public debts high and rising, that would introduce the specter of a financial crisis," Roubini warned. In 2022, he warned markets of a coming stagflationary-debt crisis, which could spark a painful recession and 30% plunge in stocks.

Persons: Nouriel Roubini, Trump, Roubini, —, Doom, Trump's, Powell Organizations: Trump, Service, Project Syndicate, Commerce, Bank of America, Bloomberg Locations: Ukraine, Gaza, China

☆ The US is heading towards stagflation, which would be terrible news for stocks, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

JPMorgan warned that today's economic situation could shift towards 1970s-era stagflation, characterized by high inflation and low growth. Such a situation would drive investors away from stocks towards fixed-income assets offering higher returns. JPMorgan says current geopolitical tensions have parallels to the 1970s and could similarly drive inflation. AdvertisementThe US economy is at risk of tilting towards stagflation, or a period marked by low growth and persistently high inflation, which would prompt investors to favor stocks over bonds, says JPMorgan. An uncertain geopolitical environment, combined with high interest rates, would likely reduce liquidity, JPMorgan said.

Persons: —, JPMorgan, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan, Service Locations: Vietnam, Israel, Ukraine, China

☆ 'Black Swan' author Nassim Taleb says the US is heading for a debt 'death spiral'
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US is headed for a debt "death spiral" if politicians don't rein in spending, Nassim Taleb said. "The Black Swan" author said debt troubles will continue if Congress can't"A debt spiral is like a death spiral," Taleb said at an event on Monday. AdvertisementThe US is facing a "death spiral" as a result of its mounting debt and the inability of politicians to confront the issue, according to "The Black Swan" author Nassim Taleb. In fact, rising debt in the US is a "white swan," Taleb said, and is an event that poses an obvious risk to markets versus a "black swan" event, which can occur without much warning. "A debt spiral is like a death spiral," he added.

Persons: Nassim Taleb, Swan, Taleb, —, Per, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Per Bloomberg, Universa Investments, Fed, Investors Locations: West, Congress

☆ How the Red Sea crisis could clobber the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-10 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

The Suez Canal accounts for 10-15% of world trade, which includes oil exports, and for 30% of global container shipping volumes. Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc told the Financial Times Thursday that re-establishing safe passage through the Red Sea could take “months.” “It could potentially have quite significant consequences on global (economic) growth,” he added. Ikea has warned of shipment delays and potential shortages of certain products due to disruption in the Red Sea. Some ocean carriers that ordinarily transit through the Panama Canal had rerouted to the Suez Canal before the attacks in the Red Sea escalated, according to logistics company C.H. Matthew Burgess, vice-president of global ocean services at the firm, said global shipping capacity would be constrained for a while yet.

Persons: Joe Biden, Vincent Clerc, Germany’s, Mohamed, El Erian, ” Simon MacAdam, Lily Millard, Ben May, Good Hope, ”, ” It’s, Abercrombie &, Nathan Howard, “, ” Philip Damas, —, Judah Levine, Levine, Eric Thayer, Carolina Klint, Marsh McLennan, Robinson, Matthew Burgess, we’ve, Gene Seroka, Burgess, C.H Organizations: London CNN, British, Energy, World Bank, Maersk, MSC, Lloyd, CMA CGM, Financial Times, Global, Germany’s Kiel Institute, Allianz, Bank, Capital Economics, Oxford Economics, European Automobile Manufacturers ’ Association, Ikea, CNN, Abercrombie, Abercrombie & Fitch, Bloomberg, Getty, Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, Marsh, United, Port Locations: Iran, Crocs, Suez, Yemen, Gaza, Germany, Brent, Gulf, Oman, South Africa, Germany’s Kiel, Red, Israel, Good, Europe, ”, China, Asia, Los Angeles, United States, Panama, Rotterdam, of Los Angeles, of New York, New Jersey

☆ 'It's all clear' on inflation, and the Fed could cut rates as soon as March, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

He predicted central bankers could begin cutting interest rates as soon as March. The Wharton professor thinks the US could risk a recession if the Fed doesn't dial back interest rates soon. AdvertisementThe battle against high inflation is just about over, and that could give the Federal Reserve the green light to soon start cutting interest rates soon, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel. AdvertisementThe Fed has raised short-term interest rates 525 basis points over the past year, which Siegel previously warned could trigger a recession. Central bankers have a bigger risk now of dialing back interest rates too late, he suggested, as the economy is already showing signs of slowing down.

Persons: Jeremy Siegel, Wharton, —, Siegel, Powell, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Treasury, Bank of America

☆ The Fed's next move will be to cut rates as the drop in inflation was a 'gamechanger,' former PIMCO chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed's next rate move will be to cut rates, former PIMCO chief economist Paul McCulley said. Some forecasters say the Fed will slash interest rates by nearly three percentage points next year. Most significant is the "crack" in shelter inflation, McCulley said, which rose 6.7% year-over-year in October. AdvertisementInvestors will debate over when the Fed will cut rates, he added, though most are expecting the first rate cut to happen sometime next year. Some economists, though, have cautioned that the Fed risks easing interest rates prematurely, which could eventually lead to a resurgence in inflation down the line.

Persons: Paul McCulley, McCulley, —, That's, we've, Mohamed El Organizations: Service, CNBC, UBS, Fed

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