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Money managers through Nov. 28 extended their K.C. wheat net short to near 50,000 futures and options contracts, their largest since May 2019 and among their biggest-ever shorts. Grain futures sank in the week ended Nov. 28, including a 3.2% decline in CBOT March corn and a 1.8% slide in March wheat . CBOT March wheat found contract lows on Nov. 27 but touched three-week highs by Friday, presumably motivated by short covering. Funds in that week cut their net long in CBOT soybean futures and options to 67,562 contracts from 81,587 a week earlier.

Persons: Dane Rhys, Corn, Karen Braun, Chris Reese Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Deerfield , Ohio, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis, Brazil

Money managers’ net short in CBOT wheat futures and options rose to a 23-week high of 108,176 futures and options contracts as of Nov. 21 versus 89,271 a week earlier. That is funds’ most bearish corn stance since June 2020. wheat futures and optionsFunds’ Minneapolis wheat views remain near record-bearish, though they were slight net buyers in the week ended Nov. 21. On Monday, CBOT corn and all U.S. hard and soft wheat futures hit contract lows during trading, including the lowest price for most-active corn since December 2020. Open interest in CBOT soybean meal futures and options surged 4% during the week to another record of 671,039 contracts.

Persons: soyoil, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, South America, Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis, K.C, U.S, Brazil

Money managers through Nov. 14 expanded their net long in CBOT soybean meal futures and options to 131,404 contracts from 111,987 a week earlier, also on new longs. January meal futures surged 21% during those five weeks and nearly 4% in the most recent week, reaching their highest ever levels for the date. The pre-2023 record open interest in meal futures and options was 594,016 contracts set in mid-2018 after drought significantly cut down top meal exporter Argentina’s soybean crop. March CBOT wheat futures rose fractionally during the week, and funds trimmed nearly 3,000 contracts from their huge net short, resulting in 89,271 futures and options contracts. wheat, funds have been very heavy sellers of spring wheat futures since late July.

Persons: Gustavo Bonato, Soyoil, Karen Braun, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Campo Verde, Mato Grosso, Brazil, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, United States, U.S, Kansas City, Minneapolis

Additionally, tightness in U.S. soybean meal supplies related to Argentina’s extreme crop shortfall earlier this year has lent significant support to soybean and soymeal futures lately. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsIt was funds’ biggest net buying week in soybeans since early April, and both new longs and short-covering played an instrumental role. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean meal futures and optionsThe new managed money meal long is the biggest since mid-March and the largest ever for the date. CBOT soybean meal on Monday traded up the daily limit at one point, reaching the most-active contract’s highest since mid-March and notching another contract high for December meal. Most-active CBOT soybeans on Monday hit their highest price since Aug. 31, and most-active corn futures rose 2.9%, their biggest single-day percentage gain since July 24.

Persons: Karen Braun, Leslie Adler Organizations: U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission, China, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE, Ill, Brazil, Chicago

Managed money net position in CBOT soybean meal futures and optionsMost-active CBOT soymeal futures jumped 8.6% in the week ended Oct. 24 on increasing international demand for U.S. soybean meal, tightening up the domestic market. Money managers flipped back to a net long in CBOT soybean futures and options through Oct. 24, snapping a seven-week selling streak. The new net long of 7,753 contracts compares with a net short of 1,984 in the prior week, which was funds’ first net short in soybeans since April 2020. Money managers cut their net long in CBOT soyoil futures and options to 11,523 contracts from 20,729 a week earlier. Spring wheat futures are off 25% from their July top.

Persons: Jim Young, Karen Braun, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Minooka , Illinois, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Argentina, Minneapolis, Kansas City

In the week ended Oct. 3, money managers slashed their net long position in CBOT soybean futures and options to 5,001 contracts from 30,058 a week earlier. New shorts and exiting longs both played a role, and money managers have not held a net short in beans since April 2020. Money managers extended their sizable net short in CBOT wheat futures and options to 98,788 contracts from 96,384 a week earlier. CBOT corn futures added about 1% late last week, touching $4.99 per bushel on Friday, their highest since Aug. 29. Money managers maintain comfortably bearish CBOT corn views, though they trimmed their net short through Oct. 3 by about 9,200 to 159,433 futures and options contracts.

Persons: ’, Soymeal, Karen Braun Organizations: China, Futures, U.S . Department, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, U.S

☆ Exclusive: Argentina's soy crushers face 'disaster' as bean shortage sharpens, chamber head says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Maximilian Heath | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] Soy plants are seen in a farm near Pergamino, on the outskirts of Buenos Aires in Argentina April 27, 2021. "With those 3 million tons we have to survive until May 2024," he said. "Argentina may total 10 million tons of (soy) imports this year," Idigoras said, a new estimate. Government data show a record 8.2 million tons of soy imports until August, already over the 6.4 million tons for the entire drought-hit 2018. Last season's wheat harvest was cut in half to some 11.5 million tons, according to the local Rosario grains exchange, which estimates a better 15 million tons for the current season.

Persons: Agustin Marcarian, Gustavo Idigoras, CIARA, Idigoras, Maximilian Heath, Nicolas Misculin, Adam Jourdan, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, Bunge, Cargill, Neighbor, Ministry of Agriculture, Thomson Locations: Pergamino, Buenos Aires, Argentina, BUENOS AIRES, Parana, Paraguay, Bolivia, Brazil, Rosario

This marks their biggest net short in corn since August 2020, and it nearly ties 2016 for the date's most bearish corn view. The move went against expectations for slight fund buying, as most-active CBOT corn futures had drifted fractionally higher for the week. Funds maintained their huge net short in CBOT wheat futures and options, which is the second largest for the time of year after 2016. CONTINUED SELLINGFriday marked several milestones for CBOT grain and oilseed futures, the most significant being a 6.4% dive in CBOT wheat futures, the biggest single-day decline since March 2022. Sept. 1 U.S. soybean stocks were above expectations but similar to the past two years, though soybean futures hit three-month lows on Friday.

Persons: Raquel Cunha, Friday’s, soyoil, Karen Braun, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Funds, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Tepexpan, Mexico, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis, Kansas

In the week ended Sept. 12, money managers expanded their net short position in CBOT corn futures and options to 134,909 contracts from 93,913 a week earlier. That marked funds’ most bearish corn stance since mid-August 2020, when CBOT corn was trading below $3.50 per bushel. Most-active corn futures have traded below $5 since Aug. 21, and they fell 2% in the week ended Sept. 12. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsCorn dropped to $4.73-1/2 per bushel on Sept. 12, tying mid-August for the lowest price since December 2020. Most-active CBOT wheat shed 2% in the week ended Sept. 12, dropping to the lowest price since December 2020.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Corn, Bean, soyoil, Karen Braun, Diane Craft Organizations: Carbon Solutions, REUTERS, Rights, U.S . Department, Agriculture, Futures, Funds, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Defiance, Shelby County , Iowa, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, U.S, soymeal, Ukraine, Russia

Speculators responded by boosting their bullish Chicago soybean bets, which they have held for more than three years, and easing bearishness in corn futures. Most-active CBOT corn futures rose 1.5% during the period but stayed below $5 per bushel throughout. Last week’s rise in oilseed optimism extended to the soy products, as CBOT soybean meal futures increased more than 4% and soybean oil added 2.5%. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsMost-active CBOT wheat futures lost more than 4% in the week ended Aug. 29. Corn futures dropped 1.1% over the last three sessions, soybeans lost 1.7%, soymeal lost 3% and soyoil was mostly unchanged.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, soymeal, soyoil, Karen Braun, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Funds, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Dixon , Nebraska, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Russia, Turkey, Brazil, Mato Grosso

Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsCBOT corn futures had risen almost 6% during the week, though CBOT wheat surged over 13%, including a limit-up move on July 24. Managed money net position in Chicago wheat futures and optionsGrain futures did not sustain their strength last week, and funds may have already abandoned bullish corn bets as of Friday’s close. Corn dropped over 6% in the last three sessions and commodity funds commodity funds were pegged as net sellers of 33,000 futures contracts. CBOT wheat futures still maintain some of their recent Ukraine war premium, having shed 7.4% between Wednesday and Friday. Funds were seen as sellers of 24,000 wheat futures during this period.

Persons: Corn, Karen Braun, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Funds, European Union, Sunday, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Ukrainian, Russian, Ukraine, European, U.S, China, Mexico . U.S, Brazil

Although those factors caused Chicago corn and wheat futures to surge, speculators have held on to their bearish views thus far. In the week ended July 18, money managers reduced their net short position in CBOT corn futures and options to 46,926 contracts from 63,052 a week earlier. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsCBOT December corn futures rallied 6.6% through Tuesday, July 18, though the week included a drop to new yearly lows after the Department of Agriculture expanded the U.S. corn crop outlook. Money managers’ net short in CBOT wheat futures and options has barely changed in the latest three weeks despite a 4% decline in most-active futures during the stretch. Money managers increased their net long in CBOT soybean futures and options to a three-week high of 95,814 contracts through July 18 from 82,748 a week earlier.

Persons: Soymeal, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S, Department of Agriculture, Wednesday, Traders, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Ukraine, Chicago, U.S, soyoil

Chicago corn, wheat, soybean and soybean meal futures began rallying sharply in mid-June as expanding U.S. drought and disappointing rain events hammered crop conditions. Trade sources had pegged the week’s net corn selling to be about four times heavier. Trade sources peg funds’ net selling in CBOT corn futures at 55,500 contracts over the last three sessions, and CBOT wheat selling is seen at 20,500 futures contracts. Funds were seen as net buyers of 8,000 soybean futures, 9,500 soyoil futures and 3,500 soymeal futures between Wednesday and Friday. Money managers’ weekly net selling in CBOT corn futures and options has twice exceeded 100,000 contracts this calendar year.

Persons: Gross, Wheat, Karen Braun, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, corn’s, Funds, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Chicago

Gains across most-active CBOT futures in the week ended June 6 were as follows: corn 2.4%, soybeans 4.4%, wheat 6.2%, soymeal 1% and soyoil 10.2%. They also trimmed their net short in CBOT corn futures and options to 44,492 contracts from 51,065 in the prior week. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsCommodity funds in mid-March established a net short in CBOT corn for the first time since August 2020, but they have not held a net short in soybeans since April 2020. Funds slashed their net short to 16,173 futures and options contracts from a record 31,110 a week earlier. Most-active soybean oil featured the biggest gains at 7.2%, and corn was the biggest loser with December down 1.9% and most-active corn down 0.6%, mostly on weekend rain expectations for the U.S. Corn Belt.

Persons: soymeal, Karen Braun, Diane Craft Organizations: Funds, Wednesday, U.S, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, CBOT soyoil, Midwest

Production had never exceeded 100 million prior to 2017, though USDA sees the 2024 crop jumping to another new high of 163 million tonnes. Current economics suggest 2024 soybean profitability in Brazil could return to the lower levels of the late 2010s, when the average yearly area expansion was below 3%. Brazilian farmers have been slow to sell the 2023 soy crop amid easing prices, and 2024 may be less exciting. China’s soybean consumption had been rising more than 8% per year in the mid-2010s. Chinese soybean demand: consumption and importsKaren Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.

Persons: Mato, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, China, Americas, Brazil, BRAZIL, United States, Argentina, CHINA

Soybeans are the only U.S.-traded grain or oilseed in which funds’ net long has persevered since 2020, though money managers have been bullish soybean meal since late 2021. Most-active CBOT soybeans fell 3% in the week ended May 23, at one point trading at the lowest levels since last July. Money managers that week cut nearly 20,000 contracts from their CBOT soybean net long, which fell to 4,147 futures and options contracts. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsMost-active soybeans have shed more than 12% this year, more than in most years, though they bounced 1% over the last three sessions. Money managers extended their net short in CBOT wheat futures and options to 118,788 contracts from 112,769 a week earlier.

Most-active CBOT soybean futures shed 3.6% through May 16, and funds added gross shorts for a sixth consecutive week. That could mean money managers at Friday's close were net short soybean futures and options for the first time since April 2020. They have not held a net short for two or more consecutive weeks since March 2020. Money managers' all-time soybean net short of 168,835 futures and options contracts was set on May 14, 2019. CBOT wheat futures had been rallying mid-month due to uncertainty over the Black Sea grain deal, though Russia on Wednesday agreed to a two-month extension, allowing Ukraine to continue exports by sea.

Since then, the combined net long hit an all-time high near 840,000 futures and options contracts in April 2022. In the July contracts, soybeans and soymeal fell 5%, corn and soyoil shed around 6% and CBOT wheat plunged 8%. The only period in which funds were more bearish toward CBOT wheat was between July 2016 and January 2018. ADDITIONAL PRESSUREThe downturn continued for corn and wheat futures between Wednesday and Friday, likely increasing bears’ recent momentum in the grains. Most-active CBOT wheat fell nearly 3% over the last three sessions and featured a dip on Friday to the lowest levels since July 2021.

In the week ended April 18, money managers increased their net long position in CBOT corn futures and options to 49,434 contracts from 27,112 a week earlier, marking their most bullish corn view since Feb. 28. Funds have been net corn buyers for five consecutive weeks for the first time since September. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsBut some of those longs may have already been scrapped in the last three sessions, as CBOT corn futures fell 4.5% in the July contract and 4% in the December. Money managers trimmed their net short to 102,983 futures and options contracts from 104,247 a week earlier. That is their most bearish CBOT wheat view for the time of year since 2017.

Managed money net position in Chicago wheat futures and optionsMost-active CBOT wheat futures had shed 2.5% in the period. They also reduced their net long in Minneapolis wheat to 245 futures and options contracts from 694 a week earlier. wheat rose 1.2% and CBOT wheat gained 1.3%. CBOT wheat has also displayed considerable weakness versus CBOT corn, as front-month wheat’s advantage to corn slipped below 15 cents per bushel Thursday, the lowest since July 2021 and below long-term averages. The record net long is 154,550 contracts set in April 2019, and it is very rare for funds to be short cattle.

In the week ended March 21, money managers reduced their net long position in CBOT soybean futures and options to 110,786 contracts from 127,661 a week earlier. In the week ended March 21, most-active CBOT soybean futures fell 1.8%, new-crop November soybeans shed 3.2%, soymeal lost 4.3% but soyoil added 0.1%. GRAINSMoney managers were modest buyers of CBOT corn futures and options in the week ended March 21 after selling nearly 300,000 contracts over the previous four weeks. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsIn CBOT wheat, money managers cut their net short for a second consecutive week, to 86,500 futures and options contracts from 95,257 a week earlier. In the week ended March 21, most-active CBOT corn futures rose 1.5% but CBOT wheat fell 1.9%.

Most-active CBOT futures contracts all traded lower in the week ended March 14, and losses are as follows: corn 2.1%, soybeans 1.4%, wheat 0.3%, soymeal 1.4% and soyoil 4.2%. Corn and soyoil notched multi-month lows during the week and wheat dropped to its lowest level in a year-and-a-half. Money managers were net sellers of more than 75,000 CBOT corn futures and options contracts in the week ended March 14, establishing a net short of 54,134 contracts, their first bearish stance since August 2020. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsMoney managers also flipped to a net short in CBOT soybean oil as of March 14, their first since June 2020. In the week ended March 21, which represents the next set of CoT data, most-active CBOT corn futures rose 1.5% and soyoil added 0.1%.

However, they pushed their bullish soybean meal bets to a new record and bought a respectable amount of beans, though investors’ pessimism toward CBOT wheat increased even further. They also reduced their net long in CBOT soybean oil to 20,526 futures and options contracts from 28,093 in the prior week. Through March 7, money managers increased their net short in CBOT wheat futures and options by nearly 9,000 contracts to 100,636 contracts, their most bearish since January 2018. They also sold more than 3,500 Minneapolis wheat contracts through March 7, flipping to a net short of 3,029. Between March 7 and March 16, most-active CBOT futures traded as follows: corn -0.2%, soybeans -1.6%, wheat +0.1%, meal -2.8%, soyoil -1.6%.

LATEST DATAIn the week ended Feb. 21, money managers cut nearly 19,000 CBOT corn futures and options contracts off their net long, which fell to 215,928 contracts. They also increased their net long in CBOT soyoil by nearly 12,000 futures and options contracts, and the resulting net long was 34,301 contracts, a one-month high. When adding other reportable traders’ net long, the overall speculative soymeal net long is also a record at 173,690 contracts. and Minneapolis wheat futures and options contracts as of Feb. 21. Most-active CBOT futures hit some milestone lows on Friday.

LATEST DATAThe week ended Feb. 7, the last available week of CoT data, featured mild declines across most-active CBOT corn, wheat, soybean and soy product futures. In the four weeks ended March 7, most-active CBOT corn is down 6% and CBOT wheat has fallen 7%. Daily fund estimates collected by Reuters suggest that between Feb. 8 and March 7, commodity funds were net sellers of 42,500 CBOT corn futures and 38,000 CBOT wheat futures. Funds’ net long in soybean meal would be record-large per the trade estimates. CBOT corn and wheat have recently traded as if the Ukraine grain export deal will be extended before its March 18 expiration despite Russia’s resistance.

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