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Yes, the S&P 500 is just off of all-time highs following a 36% percent rally from October to July. Major stock prices begin to perform poorly, which drags down the S&P 500 Index, which in turn causes the selling of the index. The index selling puts a drag on the largest-cap stocks, which adds more legs to the index selling." The S&P 500 is up 49% since late 2022 as bears have continued to warn of downside. AdvertisementSecond, lower interest rates would spark demand and could cause inflation to resurface, which would be good for oil stocks, Smead said.
Persons: , Smead doesn't, Smead, Warren, We're, Dow, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Stocks, LEN Organizations: Service, Business, Morningstar, Smead, Bank of America, Technology, Fund, Federal, Fed, DR, Occidental Petroleum, Apache
But it's hard to argue against the track record of his most preferred valuation measure — total market cap of non-financial stocks to total revenue of those stocks — when it comes to long-term stock-market returns. Unfortunately for investors, the measure just hit an all-time high, topping levels seen in 1929, 2000, 2008, and 2022. Here's the metric:AdvertisementHussman Funds"Last week, our most reliable measure of stock market valuations hit the highest extreme in history," Hussman wrote in a July 20 commentary. AdvertisementWhile Hussman's valuation measure doesn't necessitate near-term losses, there is some evidence that stocks could soon face downside. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls.
Persons: , John Hussman, Hussman, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Locations: recessionary
"In contrast, current valuation extremes imply potential downside risk for the S&P 500 on the order of 50-70% over the completion of this cycle." JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4,200, while more extreme forecasts include Jeremy Grantham's estimate in the low 3,000s. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.
Persons: , Jonathan Golub, Count John Hussman, Hussman, Hussman's, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Jeremy Grantham's Organizations: Service, UBS, Business, Hussman Investment Trust, New York Stock Exchange, Investor Intelligence
CNN —The planet just marked a “shocking” new milestone, enduring 12 consecutive months of unprecedented heat, according to new data from Copernicus, the European Union’s climate monitoring service. Unless planet-warming fossil fuel pollution is slashed, “this string of hottest months will be remembered as comparatively cold,” he said. “We need an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell.”As temperatures surge, global climate commitments are “hanging by a thread,” he warned. The average global temperature over the past 12 months was 1.63 degrees above these pre-industrial levels. But unprecedented heat has already left a trail of death and destruction across the planet this spring.
Persons: Copernicus, Carlo Buontempo, General António Guterres, Guterres, , Richard Allan, Ben Clarke, Raj K Raj, Diego Vara, ” Gutteres, ” Guterres, El Niño, Buontempo Organizations: CNN, United Nations, University of Reading, United Arab, Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute, Hindustan Times, Reuters, El, World Meteorological Organization, WMO Locations: New York, Russian, Paris, India, Asia, Mexico, United States, Brazil, Kenya, United Arab Emirates, New Delhi, Cavalhada, Porto Alegre
There is a focus on fake stories to influence attitudes on subjects like the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. But for the past year, the climate crisis has been the second-most targeted subject, according to the European Digital Media Observatory (EDMO). Official statistics, however, tell a different story: In 2022, renewables accounted for 23% of the energy consumed in the EU. The EU is considered a global leader in tackling planet-heating pollution, but climate disinformation could undermine the bloc’s ambitious goal to reduce carbon emissions by 90% by 2040, compared with 1990 levels. Its community standards policy in the past had only targeted video, but in April, it was expanded to include audio.
Persons: Morgan Wright, , streetlights, Paula Gori, , Gori, EU DisinfoLab, Wright, Gaizka Iroz, they’ve, “ They’ve, ” Gori, Pallavi Sethi, , , Facebook —, ” Wright Organizations: CNN, European Union, EU, Guardian, Bild, European Digital Media, Facebook, Getty, West, Grantham Research, London School of Economics, stoke, Services, European, Meta Locations: European, Russia, United States, United Kingdom, American, Europe, Germany, Ukraine, Gaza, EU, Spain, France, Biriatou, AFP, Africa, Asia, industrializing, Gori, Italy, Croatia, Poland, England, Grantham, Prague, Russian, Slovakia, Moscow
It's been a near-frictionless seven months for the S&P 500, with the benchmark index up a cool 26% since late October. While earnings were just fine in the first quarter, if they start to decline alongside a slowing economy, stocks will go with them. He sees the S&P 500 declining by more than 50% when all is said and done. The current inversion of 580 days implies a drop of around 65% for the S&P 500. Those fears have since dissipated, and the S&P 500 has rallied 47% since October 2022.
Persons: It's, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, BullAndBearProfits.com Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Bullandbearprofits.com Wolfenbarger, Jeremy Grantham, Marko Kolanovic, Albert Edwards Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Fed, OVOM
Clean energy stocks may be underperforming in the public market, but there is still great appetite for companies focused on decarbonization in private markets — with Clean Energy Ventures' new fund serving as the latest example. The climate tech firm said Wednesday that it raised $305 million for its second fund, five years after closing its first fund. This latest fund was oversubscribed — the initial target stood at $200 million — but interest from limited partners including The Grantham Foundation, Builders Vision and Carbon Equity led to a higher raise. The firm is already putting the new money to work, focusing on technologies that go beyond the traditional green investments of solar and wind. Co-founder and managing partner Daniel Goldman identified industrial decarbonization as one compelling vertical — specifically emissions-reducing technology for the cement and steel industries.
Persons: Daniel Goldman Organizations: Clean Energy Ventures, The Grantham Foundation, Builders Vision, Carbon Equity, CNBC
The WWA report divided the heat waves into three areas: West Asia, the Philippines and a region spanning South and Southeast Asia. However, the impact of climate change there was greater, increasing temperatures by about 1.2 degrees. Climate change also played a pronounced role in this region, according to the analysis, making the heat 45 times more likely and 0.85 degrees Celsius hotter. “Many cities have seen extreme losses of green space,” Pereira said, increasing the impacts of extreme heat on residents. If not, she added, “extreme heat will lead to even greater suffering in Asia.”
Persons: Jehad, ” Friederike Otto, El, Idrees Mohammed, Otto said, ” Otto, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, ” Pereira, , Mariam Zachariah Organizations: CNN, WWA, Getty, Grantham Institute, Climate, Environment Locations: Gaza, West Asia, Philippines, South, Southeast Asia, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, Rafah, Anadolu, Delhi, Manila, Asia, West, Raipur, India, AFP, Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, , Bangladesh, Thailand
The gauge is shown below in green and red alongside S&P 500 price action in blue. Most strategists at major Wall Street banks, meanwhile, generally see the S&P 500 staying above 5,000 through 2024. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, he's, Hussman, , it's, Warren Buffett, there's, David Rosenberg Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Business, CPS, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Dynamics, bullish
Mai Mahiu, Kenya CNN —When Julia Wanjiku put her son Isaac to bed last Sunday after a day celebrating his third birthday, she didn’t realize she was also saying goodbye. She was among the survivors gathering at Ngeya Girls High School in Mai Mahiu on Tuesday. A damaged car buried in mud in an area heavily affected by torrential rains and flash floods in the village of Kamuchiri, near Mai Mahiu, on April 29. Luis Tato/AFP via Getty ImagesPeople removing mud and water from their house in Mai Mahiu, Kenya, on April 29. Rescuers carry the body of a young man recovered in the debris following flooding, in Mai Mahiu, Kenya.
Persons: Mai Mahiu, Kenya CNN —, Julia Wanjiku, Isaac, Wanjiku, — Isaac, , ” Wanjiku, Isaac’s, Mai Mahui, It’s, Luis Tato, El, William Ruto, Kithure Kindiki, Isaac Mwaura, ” Ruto, Mark Laichena, , Simon Maina, Mwaura, Nyagoah Tut, James Wakibia, Joyce Kimutai, herder, Makau, “ I’m, ” Larry Madowo, Laura Paddison, CNN’s Louis Mian, Allison Chinchar, Mary Gilbert Organizations: Kenya CNN, CNN, Girls High School, Getty, Getty Images, , Kenyan, Space Agency European Space Agency, European Space Agency, Isaac Mwaura ., Communities, United Arab Emirates, Rights Watch, Kenya Meteorological Department, Human Rights Watch, Rescuers, Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute Locations: Kenya, Mai, Kenya’s, Nairobi, Mai Mahiu, Kamuchiri, AFP, Getty Images Kenya, Garissa, Tanzania, Tana, Mathare, New York, El, Nyagoah Tut Pur, Africa, East Africa, London
Using scientific models, the team was unable to determine precisely how much more likely climate change had made the floods. Changing circulation patterns driven by global warming are also increasing rainfall intensity, the analysis noted. Global warming was the only remaining reason they could identify to explain the heavier downpour. However, the focus must be on slowing climate change, she added. “While we can’t stop El Niño, we can stop climate change,” Otto said.
Persons: Amr Alfiky, , Sonia Seneviratne, Mansour Almazroui, King Abdulaziz University’s, Friederike Otto, Niño, Otto said, El, ” Otto, Francois Nel, Sultan Al, Jaber, CNN’s Abbas Al Lawati Organizations: CNN, United Arab, United Arab Emirates, Global, Reuters “, Institute for Atmospheric, Science, King Abdulaziz University’s Center, Excellence, Change, Grantham Institute, International Energy Agency Locations: United Arab Emirates, Oman, El, Dubai, UAE, Dubai’s, Zurich, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, London, Paris, deadlier
A “climate-controlled” sausage. New trousers labeled “recycled.” A “sustainable” airline ticket. More and more, big brands are using taglines like these to cater to their green-minded customers. And more and more, they are under fire from courts and regulators for making climate promises they can’t keep. Researchers at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment last year identified “an explosion of ‘climate-washing’ cases,” using existing national laws and regulations.
Organizations: Grantham Research, Danish Crown, Markets Authority Locations: Grantham, Denmark, Britain
About 45% of changes to S&P 500 analysts' earnings estimates are upgrades, as shown in the chart below, down from 50% in early 2023. AdvertisementSociete GeneraleHistorically, analyst optimism has been a good indicator for the economy's direction. Below is the S&P 500's year-over-year percentage change along with the analyst optimism measure. He says the S&P 500 is in a bubble fueled by AI optimism and could fall as much as around 60%. He sees potential downside of 39% for the S&P 500.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, Edwards, Powell's, Ed Yardeni, Let's, There's, Jeremy Grantham, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Business, Street, Nasdaq, Generale, Conference, Institute for Supply, subsiding, Fed, repo, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bears, Rosenberg Research, policymaking
According to Bank of America, valuation levels explain 80% of the market's return over a 10-year period. Bank of AmericaThere are many ways to measure valuation levels in the overall market. Hussman says it's the most accurate indicator of future market returns that he's found. AdvertisementThe Conference BoardThird, the number of US states with a rising unemployment rate is spiking, meaning that the overall unemployment rate should see further upside. BullAndBearProfits.comThe US unemployment rate is already on a slight uptrend, having climbed from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.9% as of February.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, John Hussman's, he's, Warren Buffett, Wolfenbarger, Stocks, Woflenbarger, Cam Harvey, Claudia Sahm, Louis Fed, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, David Rosenberg, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, Treasury, Bank, America's
In today's big story, we're examining how a change in credit cards' behind-the-scenes fees impacts you… and your points . Under the settlement, merchants could charge customers more for using different cards despite being part of the same Visa or Mastercard network. AdvertisementTim Boyle/Getty Images; Jenny Chang-Rodriguez/BIThe agreement could ultimately reshape how consumers pay for things. AdvertisementPerhaps that's why one analyst told Business Insider's Alex Bitter he doesn't expect major retailers to pass swipe fees along to customers. But maybe, not unlike the fees the agreement targets, what seems small could eventually add up to something big.
Persons: , Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Insider's Grace Eliza Goodwin, Tim Boyle, David Morris, Alex Bitter, LUDOVIC MARIN, BlackRock's Larry Fink, Jeremy Grantham, Ian Shepherdson, That'll, We've, Meta, Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook execs, Francis Key Scott, Hunter Biden, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Service, Nickelodeon, Business, Mastercard, Visa, Getty, Fed, Amazon, BI Locations: Europe, LUDOVIC, Baltimore, Port, New York, London
The stock market "shows every sign of being just as crazy" as it's ever been, the GMO cofounder and long-term investment strategist told the Insightful Investor podcast in a recent conversation. AdvertisementThe veteran investor underscored that prolonged bull markets typically begin when unemployment is high, profit margins are depressed, and stock valuations are beaten down. Current conditions are the polar opposite of that, putting stocks in "double jeopardy" as both profits and valuations may plunge, Grantham said. Related storiesThe stock market has staged big rallies during boom times a couple of times before, including in 1929 and 1999, but those "ended incredibly badly," he said. Grantham also tackled the topic of de-dollarization and whether the dollar might lose its status as the world's reserve currency.
Persons: , Jeremy Grantham, Grantham Organizations: Service, Business, Kodak, Polaroid, greenback
Hussman FundsThese levels indicate the S&P 500 is likely to return around -5% annualized over the next 12 years, according to Hussman's math. AdvertisementBy the time the current market cycle bottoms out, the S&P 500 could well have fallen by 50%-70%, Hussman said. He predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 33% over the past year.
Persons: , John Hussman's, Hussman, he's, we've, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, There's, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Gary Shilling Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Exchange, Federal Locations: Miami
AI chatbots can help workers brainstorm ideas, do research, write reports, build presentations, learn about new topics and identify patterns in vast troves of data. AI will ‘destroy’ some jobs, boost othersThere is also the very real risk that AI will replace some workers. AI might be able to help slow the rate of decay in the labor force,” Sangani said. “These workers will be supplemented, not replaced, by AI,” Sangani said, though he added there are also places where AI will replace workers. IMF warns AI could deepen inequalityEven if AI accelerates economic growth, there is no guarantee that everyone will benefit.
Persons: New York CNN — Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs, Hatzius, ” Hatzius, that’s, you’ll, , ” Satyen, ” Sangani, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, Treasury Department, IRS, Hatzius, International Monetary Fund Locations: New York, United States
Read previewRisk is back in fashion on Wall Street as investors shed their fears and become more adventurous with their cash. Wall Street is betting big on a soft landing, where the Fed succeeds in bringing inflation down without unemployment surging or a recession taking hold. Related storiesSimilarly, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a recent outlook that "risk appetite is poised to grow" this year as recession relief and rate cuts embolden investors. When the music stopsThe outlook for stocks and the economy might seem brighter, but it's worth being at least a little skeptical of the current enthusiasm. "Nobody seems to care about valuations, and now you have Wall Street strategists laying claim that we are in a brand new era," veteran economist David Rosenberg said in a recent note.
Persons: , BII, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg, Jeremy Grantham, there's, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Investors, BlackRock Investment Institute, Nvidia, Grantham, Swissquote Bank Locations: BlackRock
Just because the current valuation backdrop isn't as extreme as 1999-2000, we are still in a market bubble, and valuations are even more stretched today than they were at the market peaks in 2007, 1990, and 1980." Rosenberg ResearchSecond, the S&P 500 is outperforming the HYG/TLT Ratio. AdvertisementRosenberg ResearchAnd third, even tech stocks, which have been overwhelmingly supporting the S&P 500, appear to be running out of gas, Rosenberg said. The same goes for Paul Dietrich, the chief strategist at B. Riley Wealth, who says the S&P 500 could fall 49% when the current bubble pops. The bull market has thrown egg onto their faces again and again: since the October 2022 lows, the S&P 500 is up a whopping 42%.
Persons: , David Rosenberg isn't, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, he's, manias, HYG, Michael Hartnett, Jeremy Grantham, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Dietrich, Grantham, Carol Schleif Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Equity Model, Dow Jones, Dow Transports Index, Bank of America's, Bank, America, BMO Family Office
Here are six recent bubble warnings from experts this week:Advertisement1. "We are nonetheless in a market bubble." Paul Dietrich"The Stock Market Bubble Is About to Burst — Look Out!" AdvertisementGrantham also suggested the AI craze would end and bring the stock market down with it. Michael GayedGayed flagged the recent surge in gold, utility stocks, and long-term Treasury bonds as evidence of mounting market jitters in an InvestorPlace op-ed this week.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Jeremy Grantham Stocks, Grantham, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Larry Summers, Summers, Michael Gayed Gayed Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Business, Rosenberg Research, North, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Tidal Locations: North American
New York (CNN) — Is the artificial intelligence boom on Wall Street a bubble primed to burst or the real deal? That’s the question investors have wrestled with since the Magnificent Seven tech stocks began turbocharging a powerful market rally last year. “A new bubble within a bubble like this, even one limited to a handful of stocks, is totally unprecedented,” he wrote in a Monday blog post. “The long-run prospects for the broad US stock market here look as poor as almost any other time in history,” he wrote. Still, the notorious market bear sees some areas of opportunity in the stock market.
Persons: , Jeremy Grantham, , Grantham, Granthan, , Hanna Ziady, Abu, Adnoc, NewMed Energy’s, Gan, Marc Stewart, Wayne Chang, ByteDance, ” Wang Wenbin, Wang Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, ” Tech, Monster, Nvidia, Boston, Federal Reserve, ChatGPT, BP, UAE, United Arab Emirates, NewMed Energy, Energy, Starbucks, McDonald’s, KFC, CNN Wednesday Locations: New York, Grantham, Israel, Gaza, Tel Aviv, China, America, American, Beijing
The mini totes are offered in four colors — blue, red, green, and yellow — and they are all in high demand. Videos shared on social media show crowds of customers visiting Trader Joe’s stores hoping to get their hands on one of the highly-coveted mini totes. “Our Mini Canvas Tote Bags certainly sold more quickly than we anticipated,” said Nakia Rohde, a spokesperson for Trader Joe’s. Of course, Trader Joe’s mini totes aren’t the first to become a viral sensation. “We do have more Trader Joe’s Mini Canvas Tote Bags coming,” said Rohde.
Persons: , Nakia Rohde, Joe’s, Rohde, Huy, Stanley, Wyatte Organizations: eBay, Facebook, , AP, Philips Locations: Monrovia , California, Huy Fong, New York
US stocks are priced for perfection in an "imperfect and dangerous" world, Jeremy Grantham said. The top investor said AI could be bigger than the internet but the initial bubble would likely pop. AdvertisementStocks are dangerously overvalued and poised to disappoint, the AI bubble is bound to burst, and a recession appears likely, Jeremy Grantham has warned. Yet he said the rollout of ChatGPT "rudely interrupted" that process by inflating a whole new bubble around AI. "So it is likely to be with the current AI bubble," Grantham said, predicting it would "at least temporarily deflate and probably facilitate a more normal ending to the original bubble."
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Grantham's, , Grantham, there's Organizations: Service Locations: Europe, Asia
Jeremy Grantham, famed investor with a history of calling bear markets, issued a bearish long-term outlook for the stock market on Tuesday, seeing the dramatic rally in artificial intelligence-related stocks as a speculative bubble. He foresaw the dot-com bubble bursting in 2000 and the 2008 bear market, and he also correctly called the bear market in 2022. The S & P 500 has rallied since late October 2023 to hit consecutive record highs, powered by megacap technology names. Dominant AI chipmaker Nvidia has rallied another 81% this year, following a near 240% advance in 2023. Grantham, now 85, believes the full effects of technological revolutions like AI often don't materialize until after an initial bubble bursts.
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, Van Otterloo Organizations: Co, Nvidia Locations: Boston, Grantham, Mayo
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