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☆ U.S. questions China's no-first-use nuclear call given buildup
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Referring also to Russia, Jenkins said China's nuclear buildup "raises the specter that United States may soon face two expansionary and significantly nuclear-armed peers." "Beijing's development of a larger, more diverse nuclear arsenal is deeply concerning, and raises questions about the trajectory of the PRC nuclear weapons program," she said. Jenkins was asked about China's call in February for states with the largest nuclear arsenals to negotiate a treaty on no-first-use of nuclear weapons against each other or to make a political statement in this regard. She said it was the first time the U.S. had heard such a proposal from China, underscoring the need for nuclear talks. "Our questions are, quite frankly, how does an idea for no-first-use really fit within their ongoing process of building up nuclear weapons?

Persons: Bonnie Jenkins, Jenkins, specter, hadn't Organizations: Senate Foreign Relations Locations: China, Washington, U.S, People's Republic of China, Russia, States

☆ Oil climbs as Gaza tensions rise, Saudi Arabia hikes prices
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A view of oil-well in action during sunset at Elk Hills Oil Field as gas prices on the rise in California, United States on April 14, 2024. Oil futures climbed on Monday after Saudi Arabia hiked June crude prices for most regions and as the prospect of a Gaza ceasefire deal appeared slim, renewing fears the Israel-Hamas conflict could still widen in the key oil-producing region. Brent crude futures were up 77 cents, or 0.9%, to $83.73 a barrel at 1055 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $78.98 a barrel, up 87 cents, or 1.1%. The geopolitical risk premium in oil prices also eased as talks for a Gaza ceasefire were underway. Also supporting oil was Saudi Arabia's move to raise the official selling prices (OSPs) for its crude sold to Asia, Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean in June, signaling expectations of strong demand this summer.

Persons: Brent, Tony Sycamore Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, IG Locations: Elk, California, United States, Saudi Arabia, Gaza, Israel, Rafah, Saudi, Asia, Northwest Europe, China

☆ Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the US economy is on solid footing — but warns any one of these 4 major risks could spoil the expansion
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US economic expansion should continue in the months ahead, assuming there are no major external shocks, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz. Consumer spending, which makes up about two-thirds of the US economy, is still positive, and job gains have been robust. AdvertisementDespite his generally upbeat outlook, however, Stiglitz is concerned about a number of risks. 4 economic risks to watchThe first is that economic slowdowns happening elsewhere could seep into the US. Congress could shut down again, we might not get some of the necessary bills that we need to continue government," Stiglitz said.

Persons: Joseph Stiglitz, we've, Stiglitz, Brent, Mike Johnson, Trump, Putin Organizations: Service, Columbia University, Conference, Business, Republican Locations: Europe, China, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Iran, Ukraine, Russia, Taiwan, Eastern Europe

☆ Joseph Stiglitz on why America's appetite for Trump endures
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

If Trump is elected again, Stiglitz said, he could well pull support for Ukraine, sending grain prices soaring. For Stiglitz, the 2001 winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, America's appetite for Trump can be traced back a little more than four decades ago to the election of Ronald Reagan. "We've had 40 years of a neoliberal experiment: Strip away the regulations and lower the taxes — taxes are much lower than they used to be. But Komlos and Stiglitz don't place blame solely on Reagan for the growing economic inequality. Every European country that's had a wealth tax has walked away from it, by and large."

Persons: Donald Trump, Joseph Stiglitz, Trump, Stiglitz, Joe Biden, Ronald Reagan, —, that's, Reagan, We've, Dina Litovsky, Friedrich Hayek, Milton Friedman, That's, Stiglitz doesn't, John Komlos, Komlos, Joe, Bill Clinton, Clinton, Barack Obama, insurrectionists, Desmond Lachman, Carter, Douglas Holtz, Eakin, George W, John McCain's, Holtz, America Stiglitz, Hayek, Friedman, Claudia Sahm, you've, what's Organizations: Columbia Business School, Business, Capitol, Biden, Trump, :, Good Society, America's, Federal Reserve, Budget, Bank, University of Munich, Duke University, University of North, Democratic, North American Free Trade, World Trade Organization, American Enterprise Institute, Bush's, Economic Advisers Locations: Manhattan, Ukraine, Russia, China, Beijing, Taiwan, University of North Carolina, Spain, America

☆ 12 portfolio companies report earnings in the week ahead. What we want to hear from each
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-27 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +15 min

The action quickly and sharply reversed back to the upside Friday after blowout earnings reports from Alphabet and Microsoft . In the week ahead, earnings are likely to drive the action again, though we'll get a few important macroeconomic reports. Earnings: We've got the biggest week of the earnings season ahead of us, with 12 Club holdings set to report. Eli Lilly 's report Tuesday morning continues to be all about sales of type-2 diabetes treatment Mounjaro and weight-loss drug Zepbound. In DuPont 's report Wednesday morning, we're looking for a continued rebound in its semiconductor business following a sequential increase last quarter.

Persons: Ford, we'll, Dow Jones, We've, Buckle, Eaton, Eli Lilly, Lilly, We're, Estee Lauder, Fabrizio Freda, we've, Linde, Bausch, Royal Philips, Woodward, SIRI, Archer, Johnson, Stanley Black, Decker, BAX, Cardinal Health, Parker, Belden, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Nasdaq, Microsoft, Meta, Google Search, Big Tech, Nvidia, Broadcom, Ford Motor, Honeywell, Danaher, Labor Department, Labor, PMI, Services PMI, GE Healthcare, Amazon Web Services, Starbucks, Deutsche Bank, DuPont, Bausch Health, U.S ., Appeals, Apple, iPhones, Vision, ON Semiconductor, Resource Partners, Franklin Resources, Paramount, Transocean Ltd, Semiconductors, Arch Capital, Logitech International, Lattice Semiconductor, F5 Networks, Sanmina Corporation, GE HealthCare, PayPal, 3M Company, McDonalds, Enterprise Products Partners, Cola Company, Melco Resorts, Entertainment, SiriusXM Holdings, Oatly, American Electric Power Company, Leidos Holdings, Marathon Petroleum, Daniels, Midland Co, Equitrans Midstream Corporation, HSBC Holdings, HSBC, Devices, Caesars Entertainment, Lumen Technologies, Mondelez, Pfizer, CVS Health, Barrick, Mastercard Inc, Cruise Line Holdings Ltd, Kraft Heinz Company, Marriott International, Ares, Generac Holdings, Johnson Controls, Cenovus Energy Inc, Qualcomm, Devon Energy, Paycom, Axcelis Technologies, Coeur D'Alene Mines, Sunnova Energy International, MGM Resorts International, MGM, Solar Inc, Oil, Allstate, Co, Tenable Holdings, Enovix Corporation, Gladstone Capital, Avis Budget Group, eBay, EBAY, LIN, Novo Nordisk, Natural Resources, PENN Entertainment, Apache, ConocoPhillips, InMode Ltd, Baxter International, Cardinal, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Apollo Global Management, LLC, Cinemark Inc, Dominion Energy, Coterra Energy, Coinbase, Bill.com Holdings, Booking Holdings, United States Steel, AXT Inc, Materials, Energy, Hershey Company, XPO Logistics, Cboe, American Pipeline, Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Brookfield Business Partners, Brookfield Renewable Corporation, Magna International, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: U.S, megaprojects, China, Eaton, Corning, Coeur D'Alene, Albemarle, ALB, Novo, New York

☆ Many large U.S. cities are in deep financial trouble. Here's why
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Carlos Waters | In Carloswaters | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Municipal governments across the United States are looking to rein in spending as pandemic-era stimulus dries up and inflation lingers for longer than expected. The group issued a AA investment grade general obligation bond rating for New York City in March 2024. The financial challenges within cities appear to be mounting despite high municipal credit ratings and robust demand for urban commodities like housing. "I think we can all agree that we're broke," said Houston Mayor John Whitmire in a March 2024 City Council budget hearing. Meanwhile, in the case of New York City, leaders remain optimistic about future returns.

Persons: Michael Rinaldi, Brad Lander, Sheila Weinberg, we're, Houston Mayor John Whitmire, Weinberg, We've, Lander, Eric Adams, Rinaldi, Adams Organizations: Fitch, AA, New, Truth, University of Denver, New York, Apple, Houston Mayor, Accounting, CNBC, Lander Locations: United States, U.S, New York City, Chicago, Houston, Portland , Oregon, New York

☆ The economy is sending mixed signals about a recession, and that's made the timing of the next rate cut less meaningful
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The economy is sending mixed signals about a potential recession in the near future, according to Ned Davis Research. The conflicting data suggests the Fed should de-emphasize when it will cut interest rates. AdvertisementThe US economy is sending mixed signals about when the next recession will arrive. Other economic indicators that measure manufacturing activity have been improving lately and argue for a long runway of economic growth ahead. That advice appears especially poignant following the release of the hotter-than-expected March CPI report, which plunged the probability of the first Fed interest rate cut happening in June from 50% to about 20% and pushed out the likelihood of a rate cut to July.

Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Powell Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, Federal Reserve Locations: Europe

☆ Monetary vs. fiscal policy: How each works and their impact on the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-10 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +17 min

In contrast, monetary policy refers to actions taken by a country's authority on money — the Federal Reserve in the U.S. — to reach a desired economic outcome. Fiscal policy and monetary policy are implemented independently, even as one impacts the other. Expansionary fiscal policy combined with contractionary monetary policy. Contractionary fiscal policy combined with expansionary monetary policy. Now consider a situation in which the Fed is easing its monetary policy while Washington raises taxes, thus reducing after-tax income.

Persons: it's, we've, Apple, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Federal, White House, nab, Federal Reserve, U.S, CNBC, Treasury, Fed, Companies, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: U.S, Washington

☆ Key takeaways from the latest jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

“The economy remains strong, held up by a robust labor market,” wrote Christopher Rupkey, chief economist with FwdBonds, in a note Friday. Still, Friday’s jobs report also showed that the whopping gains initially recorded for January and December were revised down by a combined 167,000 jobs. January’s job gains now sit at an estimated 229,000 (down from the blowout 353,000); and December’s job growth at 290,000 (down from 333,000). In February, that included construction (up 23,000 jobs); transportation and warehousing (up 19,700 jobs); and retail (up 18,700 jobs). Friday’s jobs report showed that wage growth is indeed slowing.

Persons: ”, Christopher Rupkey, FwdBonds, “, ” Robert Frick, —, ” Diane Swonk, Swonk, February’s, ” Frick, Julissa Carielo, ” Swonk, Gus Faucher, Lydia Boussour, EY, Boussour, Janet Yellen, CNN’s Kate Bolduan, they’re, ” Yellen, Price, CNN’s Bryan Mena Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, Navy Federal Credit Union, CNN, KPMG US, Health, Baby Boomers, Transportation Security Administration, DreamOn, Inc, Boomers, Fed, Labor, Federal, PNC Financial Services, “ Fed Locations: New York, San Antonio , Texas, Texas

☆ China may have to resort to a tried-and-tested tactic to power its 'new leap forward'
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Clement Tan | In Clemtan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Liu Liqun | Corbis Documentary | Getty ImagesChina may want a "new leap forward" in "productive forces" — but President Xi Jinping may need to resort to an old tactic to hit the country's ambitious growth target this year, one economist warns. While scant on specifics, the work report appears to suggest Beijing is refraining from the aggressive, bazooka-like stimulus that some markets observers were expecting. China has historically resorted to infrastructure building as a short-term fix to boost growth, particularly after the 2008-09 financial crisis. Goldman Sachs economists said that this pledge is the "most important positive surprise" from this year's government work report. Chinese Premier Li Qiang delivers a speech during the opening of the second session of the 14th National People's Congress at The Great Hall of People on March 5, 2024 in Beijing, China.

Persons: Liu Liqun, Xi Jinping, Wang Dan, Wang, Erica Tan, Goldman Sachs, Li Qiang, Li, Lintao Zhang Organizations: Bund, Getty, Hang Seng Bank, CNBC, China Investment Corporation, Maybank, Seng Bank, National People's Congress, of People Locations: China, Beijing, overcapacity, Covid, Gorges

☆ 'Once-in-a-lifetime opportunity'? Wealth manager names 3 stocks on his radar right now
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Amala Balakrishner | In Amala-Balakrishner | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Wealth manager Brian Vendig is bullish on stocks this year, and says there are opportunities for investors outside of 2023's headline-makers. Three stocks on his radar right now are Super Micro Computer , Palo Alto Networks and PepsiCo . Super Micro Computer Vendig said Super Micro Computer was his choice to ride "the wave of the AI frenzy." "This stock has traded in lockstep with Nvidia because Nvidia chips are typically housed in Super Micro servers," Vendig explained. Palo Alto Networks The wealth manager also likes cybersecurity company Palo Alto Networks.

Persons: Brian Vendig, Vendig, PepsiCo Vendig Organizations: MJP Wealth, CNBC, Micro Computer, Palo Alto Networks, PepsiCo, Super, Computer, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Alto, Pepsi Locations: billings

☆ Morgan Stanley shares a 5-part playbook for investing in well-run companies while minimizing risk in a top-heavy market
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Why rich companies also keep getting richerThere's another major disconnect that the broader market's impressive performance is masking, strategists at Morgan Stanley remarked in a recent note. Since then, the return gap has gotten even worse in a historically narrow market, Wilson wrote. Morgan Stanley"The equity market understands this economy is not that great for the average company or consumer," Wilson wrote. This rare combination of expansionary fiscal policy and restrictive monetary policy has had the unintended consequence of "crowding out the private economy," Wilson wrote. Companies that can grow without borrowing money at unattractive rates are at a huge advantage, which Morgan Stanley believes has fueled their immense success lately.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Morgan, it's, Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Business, Pew Research Center Locations: GoDaddy

☆ China's economy is at risk of a brutal 'debt-deflation spiral'
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

China's economy has crawled out of the pandemic far below the pace of what most analysts expected, and if policymakers don't step in with sufficient support in 2024, a "debt-deflation spiral" could ensue. Deflation and falling stocksThe researchers said China's leadership has failed to address the lopsided supply and demand dynamics in particular. Meanwhile, deflation has crushed corporate earnings and stock prices in China, as well as wage growth and tax revenues. Nominal GDP grew at 4.6% in 2023, 0.6 points below real growth. "The economy could fall into a debt-deflation spiral without adequate policy support."

Persons: Gene Ma, Phoebe Feng, Ma, Feng, Banks Organizations: Wall Street, Institute of International Finance, CSI, People's Bank of Locations: China, Beijing, People's Bank of China

Asia-Pacific markets are set to fall after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it was unlikely to cut rates in March. Overnight, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would likely not be comfortable enough with the path of inflation by its next meeting in March to cut interest rates. But that's to be seen," Powell said. In Asia, investors will assess private surveys on business activity for January across the region, most notably, the Caixin purchasing managers index out from China. Economists polled by Reuters expect the Caixin manufacturing PMI to come in at 50.6, an expansionary figure compared with official figures of 49.2 released on Wednesday.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Reuters, PMI Locations: Asia, Pacific, China

☆ Factories in developing Asia may have seen the worst of manufacturing slump
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Photographer: Linh Pham/Bloomberg via Getty Images Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesMost developing economies in Asia might have left the worst of the broad manufacturing slowdown behind in 2023, according to a series of private surveys released Thursday. South Korea's S&P manufacturing purchasing managers' index recorded its first expansionary reading since June 2022 at 51.2 in January, up from 49.9 in December. "The health of the South Korean manufacturing sector registered a renewed improvement at the start of 2024. Growth was reportedly reflective of increased domestic and international orders, particularly for new products," Bhatti added. These private PMI surveys are typically seen as one of several leading indicators of economic activity in the respective economies.

Persons: Linh Pham, Usamah Bhatti, Bhatti, Annabel Fiddes Organizations: Wind Corp, Vung, Renewables, International Energy Agency, Bloomberg, Getty Images Bloomberg, Getty, P Global Market Intelligence, Vietnam, ASEAN, PMI, International Monetary Fund, IMF, " Companies Locations: Tan Thanh, Ba, Vung Tau Province, Vietnam, Asia, China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand

☆ Why China's economy is doing better than people think
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewAlthough China looks dead-set on another year of economic distress, its prospects are brighter than they seem, a former advisor to the People's Bank of China wrote. For this reason, it helps that China's economy faces two-pronged deflation, with both consumer and producer price indices in the red, Yongding wrote. That means Beijing can inject considerable fiscal stimulus without concerns about inflation. According to Yongding, China's infrastructure is still behind in critical sectors, such as healthcare, education, and transportation.

Persons: —, Yu Yongding, Yongding Organizations: Service, People's Bank of China, Business, Project Syndicate, Monetary Locations: China, Beijing

☆ Dutch election: what's at stake for markets after far-right Wilders' victory
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Dutch politician Geert Wilders, the leader of the PVV party, speaks during the final debate between the lead candidates in the Dutch election before polls open on Wednesday, in The Hague, Netherlands, November 21, 2023. REUTERS/Piroschka van de Wouw/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsAMSTERDAM, Nov 23 (Reuters) - A shock win for Geert Wilders's far-right, anti-EU Freedom Party in Dutch elections has set the stage for months of uncertainty. However, Wilders took a more pragmatic approach during the campaign and he will need to collaborate with pro-EU parties if he wants to govern. Opponents of a critical pension fund reform, which went into effect in July, now have a majority in parliament. There is broad support for raising taxation on banks, including from Wilders' party, which also backs taxing lenders' windfall profits from higher interest rates.

Persons: Geert Wilders, de, Geert Wilders's, Mark Rutte, Wilders, Marcel Klok, Klok, WILDERS, Rutte, van Zanden, Rabobank's van Zanden, Banks, ING's Klok, Joost Beaumont, Yoruk, Amanda Cooper, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, EU, Party, ING, European Union, Rabobank, ABN AMRO, Thomson Locations: The Hague, Netherlands, Dutch, Europe

☆ Exclusive: China govt advisers call for steady growth target in 2024, more stimulus
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Five of the seven advisers who spoke with Reuters said they favoured a target of around 5%, matching this year's goal. The proposals will be made next month at the ruling Communist Party's annual Central Economic Work Conference that discusses policy plans and the outlook for the world's second-largest economy. "We need to adopt expansionary fiscal and monetary policy to stimulate aggregate demand," Yu Yongding, a government economist who advocates for a growth target of roughly 5%, told Reuters. "We are stepping up fiscal policy support," said another adviser, to make the "difficult" 2024 target "achievable." The stuttering post-COVID recovery has prompted many analysts to call for structural reforms that tilt the drivers of economic growth away from property and infrastructure investment and towards household consumption and market-allocation of resources.

Persons: Yu Yongding, Yu, Guan Tao, Xi Jinping, Kevin Yao, Marius Zaharia Organizations: Reuters, Communist, Economic Work Conference, BOC International, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Thomson Locations: China, BEIJING, Beijing, outflows, Japan

☆ Italy Finance Minister evokes default risk to defend bank measures
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Giuseppe Fonte | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Minister of Economic Development Giancarlo Giorgetti attends the first voting session at the lower house of parliament to elect the new speaker in Rome, Italy, October 13, 2022. "In two or three years' time, when I may not be around but there will be a default crisis, perhaps someone will say that our government was not so crazy," Giorgetti said, without giving further details of this scenario. The average default rate for Italian companies rose for the first time in nearly decade in 2022 to stand at 2.4% in December, compared with a record low of 1.6% in December 2021, credit data company CRIF said last month. The rate has edged up in the first half of 2023 to 2.5%, CRIF added, forecasting it could get to 3% by the end of 2023. ($1 = 0.9346 euros)Additional reporting by Valentina Za in Milan; Editing by Gareth Jones and Alexander SmithOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Giancarlo Giorgetti, Guglielmo Mangiapane, Giorgetti, CRIF, Valentina Za, Gareth Jones, Alexander Smith Organizations: Economic, REUTERS, Italian Economy, Hamas, Thomson Locations: Rome, Italy, ROME, Italian, Europe, Israel, Ukraine, Milan

☆ Asia markets mixed ahead of Bank of Japan decision, China PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

The Bank of Japan headquarters in Tokyo. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed ahead of a key monetary policy decision by the Bank of Japan, and fresh economic data points throughout the region. The Bank of Japan will conclude its two-day policy meeting later in the day, with investors watching for any signs of the central bank raising its inflation forecasts. It is also expected to discuss further adjustments to its bond yield control. Also on Tuesday, China purchasing manager's index data for October will likely show manufacturing grew at an expansionary pace of 50.2, according to economists polled by Reuters.

Organizations: Bank of Japan, Reuters Locations: Tokyo . Asia, Pacific, China

☆ Benchmark 10-year Treasury yield could top 7%: Ned Davis Research
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Investors should be prepared for long-duration Treasury yields to reach 7% if the U.S. economy skirts a widely anticipated recession, Ned Davis Research warned in a note on Tuesday. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, are hovering near 16-year highs of 5% as investors price in rising U.S. federal deficits and the Federal Reserve's guidance that it will keep rates high until it is convinced that inflation is under control. Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, said the Treasury sell-off could continue if the neutral rate of interest - the rate at which monetary policy is neither contractionary nor expansionary - rises due to a prolonged expansion. "So getting comfortable with a 5% 10-year Treasury is actually quite conservative," he wrote. With the potential for a worsening Treasury market sell-off, Kalish is bullish on gold and remains slightly underweight bonds, and favors large-cap equities over small-caps, he noted.

Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Powell, Treasury Department's, David Randall, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Ned, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: U.S, Treasuries

☆ Russian war economy is overheating on a powder keg
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) - His war on Ukraine may not be unfolding according to plan, but President Vladimir Putin can still claim that the Russian economy is performing, as he says, “better than previously expected”. This kind of understatement is unusual for the Kremlin leader: with a tight labour market and inflation showing no signs of abating, the Russian economy is in fact overheating. And these are conservative numbers, because other types of war spending – such as new construction in the occupied territories – are hidden in other sections of the budget. The Russian currency is down 30% since its January high. Follow @pierrebri on XCONTEXT NEWSThe Russian economy will grow by 2.2% in 2023, the International Monetary Fund said in its October World Economic Outlook.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, “, Putin, Alexandra Prokopenko, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner, Francesco Guerrera, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Kremlin, International Monetary, Bank of Russia, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Bank of, Danone, Carlsberg, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Russian, Russia, –, Moscow, Europe, Lithuania, microchips, Kazakhstan, Bank of Russia, United States, China, U.S, Beijing

☆ International Monetary Fund raises U.S. growth forecast for 2023, leaves global outlook unchanged
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Attendees arrive at the event campus on the opening day of the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank in Marrakesh, Morocco, on Monday, Oct. 9, 2023. The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday released its latest World Economic Outlook, which revised its forecast for U.S. growth higher while predicting slower expansion for the euro zone. The IMF raised its U.S. growth projection for this year by 0.3 percentage points, compared with its July update, to 2.1%. It hiked next year's forecast by 0.5 percentage points, to 1.5%. Its euro area growth forecast for 2023 was revised down by 0.2 percentage points to 0.7%, meanwhile, and for 2024 was lowered by 0.3 percentage points to 1.2%.

Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Bank, Monetary Fund, IMF Locations: Marrakesh, Morocco, U.S, United Kingdom

☆ Ireland to lay out sovereign wealth fund plans in expansionary budget
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( Padraic Halpin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"The costs that we are providing for are going to come at us really quickly. A package of one-off financial supports totalling another 2.4 billion euros will be added on top of that, a source familiar with the process told Reuters. A similarly expansive budget a year ago that included even more generous one-off measures handed little political momentum to the three-party coalition. The left-wing opposition Sinn Fein remains well ahead in polls, with elections due by early 2025. ($1 = 0.9478 euros)Reporting by Padraic Halpin; Editing by Toby ChopraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Michael McGrath, McGrath, Sinn Fein, Padraic Halpin, Toby Chopra Organizations: DUBLIN, Finance, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ireland, Europe, Dublin

☆ Japan stocks soar as yen hits 1-year low
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A passerby is reflected on an electric monitor displaying the graph of recent moments of the Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan May 2, 2023. U.S. stock futures rose 0.6%, pointing to a rebound from the S&P 500's 0.3% drop on Friday. Japanese stocks were also boosted by the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey, which showed an improvement in business sentiment. Brent December crude futures rose 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $92.38 a barrel after falling 90 cents at the end of last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $91.02 a barrel, after losing 92 cents on Friday.

Persons: Issei Kato, Korea's, Michele Bullock, Kevin Buckland, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Rights, Nikkei, Golden, Bank, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Hong Kong, China, New, expansionary

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