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Investors are worried that labor market weakness could thwart a soft landing. AdvertisementAs inflation creeps downward, investors are increasingly turning their attention to the labor market to look for clues of a soft landing. Labor market fundamentals remain strong, according to Joseph Briggs, co-lead of Goldman Sachs' global economics team and a former Federal Reserve senior economist. "If we take a broad assessment across a number of different labor market indicators, they are still roughly where they were from 2017 to 2019, and that was a pretty healthy labor market," Briggs said. AdvertisementIn Briggs' view, the following three indicators point to a normalizing late-cycle labor market, and in turn, a strong economy.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Joseph Briggs doesn't, Briggs, , shouldn't, Joseph Briggs, We're Organizations: Service, Labor, Federal Reserve, Real
Fed rates not only set short-term borrowing costs for banks, but they also help determine mortgage, auto loan and credit card rates. According to the firm, shares of a few major discount retailers should outperform if middle-income consumers see higher levels of disposable income. Shares of Home Depot and Lowe's are up roughly 12.9% and 17.2% this year, respectively, as the prospect of lower interest rates boosts consumer sentiment. Tech products seller Best Buy could also get a boost from improved middle-income consumer sentiment, Telsey forecasts. If the rate-cutting cycle boosts sentiment among higher-end consumers, Telsey expects consumer retail names such as Williams-Sonoma and German sandal company Birkenstock to outperform.
Persons: Dana Telsey, Telsey Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Walmart, Dollar, Holdings, Tech, Williams, LSEG Locations: U.S, Sonoma, German
Washington CNN —Americans are feeling a greater sense of optimism about the US economy this month, thanks to slower inflation. Voters also see a greater likelihood that Vice President Kamala Harris will defeat former President Donald Trump in the upcoming November election. The University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey, released Friday, showed that Americans’ attitudes toward the economy improved notably this month, rising 2% from August, according to a preliminary reading. That broke a monthslong spell of consumer sentiment mostly holding steady, aside from a modest increase last month. Expectations for inflation rates in the year head declined for the fourth-straight month in September, according to the report, reaching its lowest reading since December 2020.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, ” Joanne Tsu, , Harris, Trump Organizations: Washington CNN, University of Michigan’s, Consumers, ABC
The rally would be sparked by a dovish Fed FOMC meeting on Wednesday that all but confirms imminent interest rate cuts. "These are significant gains, implying the S&P 500 could gain 200-300 points in the next week," Lee said. "The key premise is the Fed is likely to commit to a September rate cut of at least 25bp. Lee's confidence in a strong rally post-Fed meeting is based on the fact that recent Fed meetings have sparked a big rally in stocks. "Here are some tangible reasons a Fed cut makes sense: 30-year mortgage has excess spread to 10-year due to uncertainty.
Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, Organizations: Service, Fed, Nasdaq
How should traders invest in a higher-for-longer rate environment? Before the Bell: What do higher-for-longer rates mean for the stock market? What I find interesting and actually kind of invigorating is the resilience of the US economy in the face of these expected higher-for-longer rates. There will be some sectors that higher-for-longer rates will impact. And so we can see consumer durables slowing down or suffering a little bit in this higher-for-longer rate environment.
Persons: Price, Bell, Wylie Tollette, we’ve, We’ve, Jeanne Sahadi, isn’t, , , , ” Read, iPhones Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Consumer, Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, Big Tech, Energy, Gallup, Global, , Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia Locations: New York, “ State, United States
America's millionaire population grew 7.3% in 2023 to 7.5 million people, according to a report from Capgemini . Their combined fortunes grew to $26.1 trillion, up 7% from 2022. Capgemini defines millionaires as those with investible assets of $1 million or more not including primary residence, collectibles or consumer durables. The number of millionaires worldwide grew 5.1% last year, to 22.8 million, according to the report. Their combined fortunes grew to a record $86.8 trillion.
Persons: Robert Frank, Elias Ghanem, Ghanem Organizations: B2m, Capgemini Research Institute, Financial Services, U.S, Nasdaq Locations: Capgemini, North America, Asia, Pacific, Europe, America, Africa, North, U.S
Citigroup analysts upgraded India to "overweight" from "neutral" in their emerging markets allocation on Friday, citing strong earnings and economic growth momentum. It also attributed India's one-year forward price-to-earnings (P/E) of 20x, which is slightly higher than the long-term averages, to a stable earnings trajectory. The brokerage remains "overweight" on India's banks, insurers, public sector enterprises, autos and capital goods companies among others. Citi downgraded China to "neutral" from "overweight", saying the recent rally in its stock markets occurred despite weakening fundamentals. Citi reiterated its "overweight" rating on Taiwan and Korea, maintaining "underweight" on Latin American countries.
Persons: Surendra Goyal Organizations: Hong, Citigroup, Citi, Jefferies, Asia Locations: India, China, Asia Pacific, Japan, Taiwan, Korea
“It is important that we maintain strong American steel companies powered by American steelworkers,” he said. “US Steel has been an iconic American steel company for more than a century, and it is vital for it to remain an American steel company that is domestically owned and operated.”Experts said opposition from Biden and other politicians — both Republican and Democrats — make it unlikely the deal will win approval. “Six weeks ago, the United States gave Mitsui, a Japanese company, a $20 billion deal to build a crane factory here in the United States and replace all our port cranes throughout the United States. “If the administration has concerns about the Nippon Steel deal, it must seriously consider alternative outcomes. US Steel products, supported by significant capital investments from Nippon Steel, will remain mined, melted and made in America,” the company said.
Persons: Joe Biden’s, Biden, , , “ It’s, Michael Leiter, Skadden, , Kishida Fumio, , , It’s, JD Vance, Phil Gibbs, KeyBank, Gibbs, it’s, Jeff Roberson, Nucor, hasn’t, ” “ Organizations: New, New York CNN, US Steel, Japan’s Nippon Steel, Justice Department, Foreign Investment, Treasury, Commerce, Defense, State, Homeland Security, American steelworkers, Steel, , Republican, Democrats —, Japanese, United States, Mitsui, United Steelworkers, steelworkers, Ohio, Nippon, Cleveland Cliffs, Nippon Steel, Cleveland, US Steel Granite City Works, AP, US Locations: New York, United States, Japan, American, Slate, United, Cleveland, US Steel Granite City, Arkansas, America
People who believe they have a higher income than their peers are more likely to socialize. AdvertisementPeople who think they have a higher income than their peers are more likely to socialize with them, contributing to greater happiness, new research found. A February NBER working paper found that those with higher perceived relative income increased their time spent with peers. Despite some uncertainty, some evidence suggests those with a higher relative income become more engaged in sports and community events. Changes in spending following from changes in perceived relative income could also drive changes in happiness."
Persons: , Bernardo Candia Gonzalez, causally, they're Organizations: Service Locations: Netherlands
Notably, Morgan Stanley is also calling for similarly solid growth this quarter despite a slew of negative revisions for fourth-quarter earnings in recent months. Post-earnings moves are top of mind for Morgan Stanley, which noted that they've been subdued throughout 2023. Its strategists are also eyeing corporate guidance and subsequent earnings revisions, which could determine whether analysts' pessimism will continue. Morgan Stanley's S&P 500 profit estimate of $229 is well below the market's projection of $243. 8 stocks that stand out nowA better-than-feared fourth-quarter earnings season will be especially friendly to eight companies that can surprise to the upside after reporting, according to Morgan Stanley.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Michelle Weaver, they've, Weaver, Morgan Stanley's Organizations: Business, Bank of America, Western Digital
The price of durable goods is deflating, though many Americans may not feel the impact. AdvertisementEven though inflation is still higher than ideal, many things are actually getting cheaper. The prices of durable goods, meaning long-lasting items such as used cars or appliances, have fallen year-over-year for each of the last five months. That decreased demand has helped push down goods prices. AdvertisementTo be sure, most items Americans are purchasing on the daily are still inflating.
Persons: , Morgan Stanley, durables, HENRYs Organizations: Service, Commerce Department, Street, Federal Reserve, Consumer, Sporting, Services
US factory orders fall 3.6% in October
  + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Autonomous robots assemble an X model SUV at the BMW manufacturing facility in Greer, South Carolina, U.S. November 4, 2019. Factory orders fell 3.6% after a downwardly revised 2.3% inSeptember, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Monday, the biggest monthly drop since April 2020. Orders for durable goods fell 5.4%, with orders for transportation equipment slumping 14.7%. Electrical equipment, appliances and components orders fell 1.1%. Shipments of manufactured goods fell 1.4%.
Persons: Charles Mostoller, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Chizu Organizations: BMW, REUTERS, U.S, Commerce, Reuters, Machinery, Manufacturing, Thomson Locations: Greer , South Carolina, U.S, Commerce Department's
Economic growth should persist in 2024, albeit at a weaker pace, according to top strategists at UBS Global Wealth Management (GWM). "We do see the savings rate — the recent savings rate — as unsustainably low, and we expect it to rise over time," said Brian Rose, a senior economist and investment strategist at UBS GWM, during the webinar. "And really, the base of the economy depends very heavily on what happens to the savings rate." Rose continued: "If the savings rate just gradually drifts higher over time, then we can have a soft landing. 33 top stocks across sectorsWhile UBS is constructive about 2024, its strategists think investors should prepare for anything.
Persons: Solita Marcelli, Brian Rose, Rose, there's, Marcelli, Daniel Scansaroli, Nicolas Le Roux, Le Roux, financials Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS, Business, US, UBS GWM, Federal Reserve, UBS GWM's, Companies Locations: Americas, Ukraine, Israel, Europe, China, Japan, Australia
The Singles Day festival, also known as “Double 11,” was created by Alibaba in 2009 and has turned into a weeks-long shopping bonanza in China. To lure them, e-commerce platforms are offering rock bottom prices this Singles Day. “While the government is looking for solid consumption growth, consumer spending is hampered by both lower household income growth and weak consumer confidence,” said Louis Kuijs, chief Asia economist at S&P Global Ratings. This is a real downgrade in consumption,” the user said, adding she hadn’t yet spent any money during the current Singles Day. “Some promotions are fake,” said another user under the name “Nyanko.” “Merchants have raised prices before cutting them for Singles Day.
Persons: , Alibaba, Alibaba’s, JD.com’s, Pinduoduo’s, ” “, Alicia Yap, Zhejiang province Hu Xiaofei, Louis Kuijs, ” Kuijs, Jacob Cooke, , ” Cooke, Cooke, John Donahoe, Lululemon Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Companies, Citi, , China’s, Technologies, Bain and Company, Pinduoduo, Nike, . Company, Starbucks Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Jinhua, Zhejiang province, Asia
The likelihood of a fourth-quarter rally has "fallen considerably" over the past month, according to Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson. Wilson has been forecasting the S & P 500 ending the year at 3,900, making him among the most bearish strategists on Wall Street according to CNBC's Market Strategist Survey. This is one reason why market breadth continues to exhibit notable weakness," Wilson said. Further support for that view can be seen in earnings revision breadth, which is breaking sharply lower again into negative territory," Wilson continued. Conversely, several defensive sectors have begun to outperform alongside energy, which Wilson said supports his "late cycle" view and defensive growth strategy.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson Organizations: Survey, Federal
It's a good time to buy cheap stocks in some sectors right now, according to Oakmark Funds' Bill Nygren. "What that means to us is the hunting ground of low P/E stocks provides more opportunity than it typically does," he said, adding that the company's portfolio includes many single-digit P/E stocks. Nygren added that he's buying up stocks in high-quality companies in financial services, insurance, energy and some consumer durables — mostly paying single-digit P/E multiples for them. Nygren, who joined Oakmark Funds in 1983, manages the $18 billion Oakmark Fund with Michael Nicolas and Robert Bierig. Energy Nygren said they own "a lot of stocks where there is risk, where investors are worried about the futures of the [companies]" — but because of that, the entry level price is very low.
Persons: Bill Nygren, what's, Nygren, CNBC's, It's, Michael Nicolas, Robert Bierig, Russell, Banks Nygren, he's, Wells, they've, that's, it's, Energy Nygren Organizations: Oakmark Funds, Energy Locations: Wells Fargo, Capital, U.S
Although valuation matters in the long-run, sentiment has a more immediate impact on share prices, Carey Hall wrote. Carey Hall noted that "based on the equal weighted S&P 500, PE ratios are roughly at historical average levels." Bank of AmericaThe reason for this is investor pessimism, particularly when it comes to long-term growth (LTG) expectations. "Today's LTG suggests >25% price returns over the next 12 months for the S&P 500, all else equal." According to Carey Hall, the best investment opportunities lie in the interactive media & services, household durables, media, passenger airlines, energy equipment & services, and insurance industries.
Persons: , Jill Carey, Carey Hall, Carey, LTG Organizations: Bank of America, Carey Hall Locations: LTG
.GSPF YTD mountain S & P 500 Financials Sector YTD performance Club stocks in the Financials sector: Morgan Stanley ( MS): The bank's services include investment banking, wealth management and investment management. Communication Services Sector market weight: 8.85% Market cap: $3.3 trillion YTD performance: up 44.5% Industries: Diversified telecommunication services; entertainment; interactive media & services; media; wireless telecommunication services. .GSPTS YTD mountain S & P 500 Communication Services Sector YTD performance Club stocks in the Communication Services sector: Walt Disney (DIS): The entertainment giant reported another mixed quarter last month, even against low expectations. Real estate Sector market weight: 2.44% Market cap: $909 billion YTD performance: up 0.9% Industries: Equity real estate investment trusts; real estate management & development. .SPLRCR YTD mountain S & P 500 Real Estate Sector YTD performance While we don't own any real estate stocks, investors have historically invested in the sector for its reliable cash flow from income-generating properties.
Persons: Jim Cramer's, Jim, Salesforce, reenergized, Marc Benioff, Wolfe, Palo, Eli Lilly, Cantor Fitzgerald, Bausch, bioprocessing, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's, Eaton Vance, Wells Fargo, Wells, TJX, Wynn, Locker, We've, Mary Dillon, Walt Disney, Bob Iger's, Emerson, Davidson, Vimal Kapur, Stanley Black, Decker, Estee Lauder, Gillette —, Elliott, Coterra, Linde, Jim Cramer, Mandel Ngan Organizations: Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust, CNBC, Club, Technology Sector, Industries, Communications, Technology, Information Technology, Apple, Wedbush Securities, Microsoft, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Nvidia, Broadcom, VMware, Palo Alto Networks, Wolfe Research, Palo Alto, Oracle, Mizuho, Amazon Web Services, Google, Health Care, Biotechnology, Health, Bausch Health, Leerink Partners, GE Healthcare Technologies, General Electric, GE, Financials, Bank of America, United Auto Workers, Detroit, Ford, Starbucks, TJX, Marshalls, Wynn Resorts, WYNN, Communication Services, Communication, Hollywood, Charter Communications, Disney, JMP Securities, Facebook, Industrials, Aerospace, Emerson, Caterpillar, Honeywell, Consumer Staples Sector, Consumer, Consumer Staples, Costco Wholesale, Procter & Gamble, Gillette, Constellation Brands, Corona, Modelo, Pacifico, Elliott Management, Energy Sector, Energy, Coterra Energy, Natural Resources, West Texas, Utilities Sector, Electric, Companies, Sempra Energy, Materials, Chemicals, Linde, LIN, DuPont, Sector, Equity, Real, Jim Cramer's Charitable, New York Stock Exchange, AFP, Getty Locations: U.S, FactSet, bioprocessing, Wells Fargo, China, Maxx, Macao, Asia, Pacifico —, California, Texas
The consumer is expected to remain resilient this year, but some retailers will benefit more than others. Consumer spending drives the U.S. economy, accounting for 68% of gross domestic product — and several analysts on Wall Street forecasted that spending will remain strong through 2024. However, the prioritization of that spending will result in winners and losers. At the same time, they expect spending growth for essentials to slow, thereby leaving more money left over for discretionary purchases. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Bernstein, That's, , TJX, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Mario Anzuoni Organizations: Wall, Goldman, , TJX, Ross Stores, Burlington, Loop, Marshalls, Apple, TJX Companies, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Maxx Locations: 4Q23, TJX, Maxx, Burlington, Pasadena , California
The stock market is having an oversized influence on how investors think about the economy. "Late in the cycle when the data is conflicting, sentiment can be influenced by stock prices more than usual. The recession narrative has swung back and forth between hard landing, soft landing, and no landing at all, and the ongoing stock market rally has reinforced some of the more bullish views of the economy. AdvertisementAdvertisementBut the stock market rally has been driven by hard economic data and corporate earnings, too. Wilson recommended investors focus on owning defensive growth stocks, particularly industrial stocks relative to consumer discretionary stocks.
Persons: Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley, Wilson Organizations: Service, Wall Locations: Wall, Silicon
A Dollar Tree sign is seen outside the store in Washington, U.S., June 1, 2021. REUTERS/Erin Scott/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsAug 24 (Reuters) - Dollar Tree (DLTR.O) forecast annual profit largely below estimates on Thursday, owing to higher costs and a shift in spending towards lower-margin consumables. Chief Financial Officer Jeff Davis said the profit outlook was also impacted by unfavorable shrink trends and higher diesel fuel prices. Dollar Tree, like retailers Target (TGT.N) and Macy's (M.N), has been plagued by a rise in retail shrink, where inventory is lost, damaged, or stolen. Dollar Tree said it now expects to earn in the range of $5.78 to $6.08 per share in fiscal 2023, compared with its prior outlook of between $5.73 and $6.13.
Persons: Erin Scott, Jeff Davis, Savyata Mishra, Pooja Desai Organizations: REUTERS, Target, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Chesapeake , Virginia, Bengaluru
REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsHANOI/SINGAPORE, Aug 22 (Reuters) - Thailand's second-biggest lender Kasikornbank (KBANK.BK) is in talks to buy consumer finance provider Home Credit Vietnam in a deal of up to $1 billion that would further its push to expand in Vietnam, two sources said. The Bangkok-based lender, also called KBank, hopes to become one of Vietnam's top 20 banks in terms of assets by 2027. It has total assets worth $119.7 billion, second only to Bangkok Bank (BBL.BK) in Thailand, Refinitiv data showed. KBank and Home Credit Group did not respond to Reuters' requests for comments. Home Credit Group is controlled by the Czech Republic's biggest investment group, PPF, which was founded by late billionaire Petr Kellner.
Persons: Athit, KBank, Petr Kellner, Phuong Nguyen, Kane Wu Organizations: Kasikorn, REUTERS, Rights, Home Credit Vietnam, Bangkok Bank, Stock Commercial Bank, Sumitomo Mitsui, Home, Home Credit, Home Credit Group, Thomson Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, Rights HANOI, SINGAPORE, Vietnam, Vietnam Prosperity, Asia, Netherlands, Czech, Hanoi, Singapore
Hong Kong CNN —China is preparing to announce new stimulus for its stumbling economy after the vast factory sector contracted for a fourth straight month, and a gauge of activity in its services sector slipped to a seven month low. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures activity level in the manufacturing sector, came in at 49.3 in July, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday. That result was slightly up compared with 49 in June but the index has nonetheless contracted each month since April. The official non-manufacturing PMI, which looks at activities in the services and construction industries, fell to 51.5 from 53.2 in June. “China’s official PMI data provides little encouragement that the economy is turning the corner,” said Robert Carnell, regional head of research for Asia-Pacific at ING Group.
Persons: Stringer, , , Robert Carnell, Xi Jinping, Carnell Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Bureau, Statistics, PMI, Getty, ING Group, National Development, Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry, Information Technology, State, Information, Ministry of Commerce, Capital Economics Locations: Hong Kong, China, Beijing, Hangzhou, China's, Zhejiang, AFP, Asia, Pacific
There are pockets of optimism elsewhere in the services sector - especially in accounting, where there is a surge in hiring. NLB sees a 20-25% drop in IT employee additions in the first half of the current financial year, while TeamLease Digital expects a 40% decrease for the entire year. Nasscom declined comment on the hiring slowdown. That has "surely left applicants concerned about future prospects", said staffing firm Xpheno's co-founder Kamal Karanth, who highlighted how current hiring activity was "under a third of what was recorded in the buoyant peak". Pai highlighted sectors such as financial services, consumer goods, specialised manufacturing, medicine, law, chartered accounting and other services as more viable options.
Persons: Rohit Azad, Azad, Rishad Premji, Sakshi Gupta, Sachin Alug, NLB, Nilanjan Roy, Nasscom, Gautam, Xpheno's, Kamal Karanth, LTIMindtree, Karanth, Siana, Siddharth Pai, Pai, Dhanya Skariachan, Raju Gopalakrishnan Organizations: New, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Wipro, HDFC, Apple, Citigroup, American Express, Europe's Credit Suisse, UBS, NLB Services, TeamLease, IT, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, Reuters Graphics, Sethuraman, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, India, Punjab
It has a market-weight rating on six sectors: consumer discretionary, energy, industrials, information technology, materials, and real estate. Goldman SachsGoldman's favorite sectors haven't changed since late April: it's still overweight consumer staples, energy, healthcare, and communication services. Morgan StanleyMorgan Stanley's top sectors are consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities, which reflects its defensive outlook about stocks. The firm is neutral about communication services, energy, financials, industrials, materials, real estate, and tech (excluding cyclicals). It has a neutral "perform" rating on almost all other sectors, including communication services, consumer staples, energy, financials, healthcare, materials, and real estate.
Persons: — Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Oppenheimer, Truist —, BofA, Savita Subramanian, Goldman Sachs, it's, Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley's Organizations: Investors, Bank of America, BMO Capital Markets, Tech Locations: Charlotte
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