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New York CNN —Even after years of inflation, geopolitical chaos and recession in Europe, the US economy remains robust and resilient. Unemployment rose to 3.9% last month, lower-income consumers are spending less and businesses are limiting employee hours and pay. A recent survey by Santander Bank of its customers found that while inflation fears have largely subsided, middle-income Americans are pessimistic about the economy. Those Americans could still be suffering, but their stories are obscured by data that paints a broad picture of a resilient economy. Piepszak, meanwhile, now leads the company’s newly combined commercial and investment bank with her co-CEO Troy Rohrbaugh.
Persons: , Gregory Daco, haven’t, Skyler Weinand, Regan, , ” Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, Bryan Mena, What’s, Jamie Dimon, Here’s, Dimon, he’s, , ” Dimon, can’t, “ Dimon, Marianne Lake, Jennifer Piepszak, Piepszak, Troy Rohrbaugh, Rohrbaugh, Mary Erdoes, Jeremy Barnum, Daniel Pinto, COOs Gordon Smith, Smith, Satya Nadella, Bing Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Regan Capital, Santander Bank, Hartford Funds, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Microsoft Locations: New York, Europe, Redmond, Washington
Creating an income-producing portfolio
  + stars: | 2024-05-20 | by ( Jeanne Sahadi | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
A lot goes into creating and managing an income-producing portfolio that works for you. Knowing your expenses will give you a good sense of the income you’ll need. Ways to generate incomeTake the income you think you’ll need and subtract from that the income you expect. For example, if you need $65,000 a year but will only bring in $40,000, you’ll need to generate the other $25,000. • For money you’ll need in three to five years, use short-term corporate bonds as well as longer-term CDs.
Persons: it’s, Will, David Seufer, you’ll, Marguerita Cheng, , David Edmisten, Edmisten, Cheng, ” Seufer, , ” Edmisten, Seufer, they’re, ” Cheng Organizations: New, New York CNN, Gravitas, Social Security, Blue, ” Capital, Social Locations: New York
So if you are planning to spend money on a pedicure, you'll want to make sure you're choosing a trustworthy salon. Here's what salon owners said are red flags to look out for when getting a pedicure at a new salon. She said that if you're getting a pedicure and manicure at the same appointment, nail technicians should also use separate tools for your hands and feet. Uncovered pedicure chairs may not be the cleanestKars told BI that salons should cover pedicure chairs with disposable materials to prioritize good hygiene. Household cleaning products aren't enough to disinfect equipmentReign told BI it's a red flag "if a salon uses household products to clean their chairs."
Persons: , Rona, Lana Kars, kali9, Patricia Reign Organizations: Service, Business, Russian, Kars, Traveling Locations: Rona Villamore Falls, Braselton , Georgia, Kars
The federal IOU is now at $34.5 trillion, or about $11 trillion higher than where it stood in March 2020. Concern over such eye-popping numbers had been largely confined to partisan rancor on Capitol Hill as well as from watchdogs like the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Uncharted territory for debt and deficitsIndeed, the CBO numbers are ominous, as they outline the likely path of debt and deficits. Surging budget deficits have been driving the debt, and the CBO only expects that to get worse. "The huge obvious problem is that the U.S. federal debt is now on a completely unsustainable long-term trajectory," analysts at Wolfe Research said in a recent note.
Persons: Greenlee Beal, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio, hasn't, Wolfe Organizations: U.S, Capitol, Wall, CBO, Union, JPMorgan Chase, Sky News, Bridgewater Associates, Financial Times, Treasury Department, Wolfe Research, U.S ., Federal Reserve Locations: Washington , U.S, Washington, Amsterdam, London, America, U.S
Various labor market indicators are also showing growing weakness in the economy, he said. Societe GeneraleNational Federation of Independent Business data shows further labor market weakness is likely to come, as small business hiring plans continue to fall. Both stats would suggest a rising unemployment rate going forward. In the meantime, the labor market has consistently proven resilient despite high interest rates, and stocks have enjoyed an eye-popping rally to new highs. Some also argue that labor market data points like the rising unemployment rate have to be shown with context.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, didn't, Edwards, aren't, we'll, Societe Generale Edwards, Bob Elliott, groupthink Edwards, Alan Greenspan Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Wall, Business, Societe Generale National Federation of Independent Business, ING, Generale, Unlimited Partners, Bridgewater Associates, of Labor Statistics, Tech
Just over 65% of recent college graduates — workers ages 21 to 24 — are employed and not enrolled in further education as of March 2024, according to a recent study by the Economic Policy Institute. But not all young graduates are thriving. EPI found 1 in 10 young graduates were "idling" as of March 2024, meaning they were neither employed nor going back to school. It's normal for recent college graduates to take time to figure out their next steps or look for work. EPI cited Schwandt's research on recession labor markets and their long-term impacts in its study.
Persons: EPI, Hannes Schwandt Organizations: Economic, Institute, Workers, Northwestern University, CNBC
I always tell my financial planning clients to keep an emergency fund — but I don't keep cash on hand. We recommend keeping that money in a highly liquid vehicle, like a high-yield savings account or money market account. Your priority for your emergency fund should be access and safety, not returns. I have a much more intricate understanding of market risk and the impact of market downturns. The rule I refuse to break: Save (at least) 25% of gross incomeI urge my financial planning clients to prioritize their savings and investments.
Persons: , We've, It's, what's, doesn't Organizations: Service
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewWarren Buffett is cashing in stocks like Apple because he knows the good times won't last — but he'll spend big once disaster strikes, a veteran strategist says. AdvertisementThe conglomerate's disposals fueled a $21 billion increase in its stack of cash and Treasurys to a record $189 billion. Related storiesDietrich underscored that as a value investor, Buffett prizes underpriced assets and avoids expensive ones. Apple, which remains Buffett's largest stock holding by far, has more than tripled in value since he finished building the position in 2018.
Persons: , Warren Buffett, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Buffett, Dietrich, He's, Jeff Bezos, Jamie Dimon, Meta's Mark Zuckerberg, he'll, Goldman Sachs, Davidson Organizations: Service, Apple, Business, Berkshire Hathaway, Berkshire, Walmart, downturns, Electric, Dow Chemical Locations: Berkshire
More than a quarter of US metros are still recovering from COVID-era job losses, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported. Today's job market amplifies fears of another recession, which some experts say could hit as soon as this year. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAs analysts clash over when the next recession will befall the US, large swaths of the country are still bogged down in the previous downturn.
Persons: Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, Service, US metros, Business Locations: COVID, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Rust Belt
More than a quarter of US metros are still recovering from COVID-era job losses, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported. Today's job market amplifies fears of another recession, which some experts say could hit as soon as this year. AdvertisementAs analysts clash over when the next recession will befall the US, large swaths of the country are still bogged down in the previous downturn. The Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkBut this trend is especially distinct in the Northeast, a region that's home to particularly impacted metros. By this indicator, a recession started in October, confirmed further by accelerating job erosion, Danielle DiMartino Booth said.
Persons: , Danielle DiMartino Booth, it's, Frances Donald, Donald, We're, Gary Schilling Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, Service, US metros, QI, Bloomberg, Wall Street Locations: COVID, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Rust Belt, California, Hawaii, New Orleans, Honolulu, San Francisco, Cleveland , Detroit, Pittsburgh, Northeast, New York City, New York
Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . And the knock-on effects extend beyond TikTok, impacting everything from President Joe Biden's reelection campaign to Apple and Tesla . AdvertisementTikTok, Tyler Le/BIThe TikTok-US government fight pits two pillars of American society against each other: free speech and national security. 3 things in businessDeliormanli/Getty, Olivier Verriest/Getty, Andrei Akushevich/Getty, Tyler Le/BIIn other newsAdvertisementWhat's happening todayToday's earnings: Airbnb, Uber, and other companies are reporting .
Persons: , swiping, Tyler Le, ByteDance, Dan Whateley, Geoff Weiss, Joe Biden's, It'll, TikTok, hasn't, haven't, Fallon, Jane Fraser isn't, Fraser, Piper Sandler, Michael Kantrowitz, Josh Edelson, Isabel Fernandez, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, Getty, Olivier Verriest, Andrei Akushevich, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Apple, Chinese Communist Party, Big Tech, Getty, Pujol, Associated Press, Facebook Locations: France, China, Beijing, Citadel, Millennium, AFP, New York, London
A Piper Sandler recession indicator says an economic downturn could be here. This indicator typically precedes official NBER recession announcements by about four months. But Chief Investment Strategist Michael Kantrowitz says stocks should still rise in the near-term. Popular recession indicators like the Treasury yield curve and The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index have been signaling for over a year now that a downturn is ahead. Last week, a lesser-known gauge — with just as impressive a track record — joined their ranks in warning of trouble ahead for the US economy.
Persons: Piper Sandler, Michael Kantrowitz, , Piper Organizations: Conference, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business
Calling AI profound, Buffet said that the technology is like a "genie" — once it gets let out of the bottle, it could have disastrous effects. It's a question, he said, that has riddled the best economists for a century. Warren Buffett is the first to admit he doesn't know much about artificial intelligence. This rebound has led to questions from corporate executives about factors that could be at play, from AI to return-to-office mandates. "Every company is looking at AI and deciding where it will help them," he said during a recent interview on CNBC's "Money Movers."
Persons: Buffett, Buffet, Warren Buffett, it's, couldn't, John Maynard Keynes, Keynes, Gary Cohn, Cohn, Dev Ittycheria, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Robert Solow, Berkshire Hathaway Organizations: Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Berkshire, IBM, National Economic, CNBC, Nvidia, McKinsey, Harvard Business Locations: Omaha, Berkshire
Investors in Blackstone's real-estate fund asked for their money back in droves — more than $15 billion to date. Unless the real-estate market comes roaring back, analysts warn, BREIT could end up shrinking to a fraction of its current size, leaving the fund's investors holding the bag. Only 3% of BREIT's holdings are in office buildings, which have been ground zero for commercial real estate pain. Advertisement"Not all real estate is created equal," BREIT boasted in a recent letter to stockholders, "and where you invest matters." "Commercial real estate is a slow burn," Brian Moynihan, the CEO of Bank of America, recently observed.
Persons: Blackstone, , BREIT, REITs, Steve Schwarzman, Jeenah, Nate Koppikar, Craig McCann, BREIT's, Chilton, ​ ​ McCann, McCann, Horacio Villalobos, That's, Donald Trump, Robert Chang, Schwarzman, Michael Blackshire, Phil Bak, Stephen Schwarzman, Shannon Stapleton, Brian Moynihan, it's, It's Organizations: BREIT, Orso Partners, Securities Exchange Commission, Blackstone, SEC, Chilton Capital Management, SLCG Economics Consulting, Publicly, University of California, Regents, Armada Investors, Reuters, Bank of America Locations: BREIT, Lisbon, Fideres
Over that time, the non-farm payrolls survey showed that the US economy gained 640,000 jobs. In addition to believing jobs data is distorted, Rosenberg has said in recent months that stock prices and valuations are disconnected from the macroeconomic picture. The chart below shows the AI boom — represented by the yellow line — with AI stocks climbing several hundred percent since 2022. Rosenberg ResearchDownturn or no downturnRosenberg has been notoriously bearish over the last couple of years, repeatedly warning of a recession. Pantheon MacroeconomicsAs Rosenberg points out, the longer the Fed keeps rates elevated, the higher the risk of a recession becomes.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's Organizations: Labor Statistics, Business, Rosenberg Research, BLS, Dynamics, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Treasury
The fall of Gucci was inevitable
  + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Madeline Berg | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +13 min
"We got used to hearing about double-digit growth at Gucci," Fflur Roberts, the head of luxury goods at Euromonitor, told Business Insider. "I think of what a fashion editor is wearing — it's not Gucci," Lindsey Solomon, a fashion publicist, told BI. After taking the top spot on the Lyst Index of fashion's hottest brands in 2022, Gucci dropped to number 11 last quarter. "We still believe the Gucci brand's current growth rate, which is 10 times higher than that of the industry, represents a risk going forward," Morningstar's Sokolova wrote in a 2017 note. Gucci relied heavily on China for its growth, but stores — perhaps including this one in China's Hainan Province — have struggled recently.
Persons: Alessandro Michele's, loafers, Gigi Hadid, Sienna Miller, Steve Madden, ASOS, Sally Singer, Michele, Fflur Roberts, Alessandro Michele, Harry Styles, Billie Eilish, Jared Leto, Kevin Mazur, Bauer, Griffin, Jeff Kravitz, Gucci, Sabato De Sarno, Lindsey Solomon, De Sarno, François, Henri Pinault, China —, Jelena Sokolova, Solomon, Daniele Venturelli, Michele —, Sokolova, It's, Thomas Chauvet, Morningstar's Sokolova, Michele's Gucci, wasn't, Jeremy Moeller, Chauvet, Roberts, Chanel, Gucci's, Gucci hadn't, Hermès, Birkin, Louis Vuitton's Neverfull, Pinault, Louis, Euromonitor's Roberts Organizations: Creative, Gucci, The Recording Academy, Axelle, Morningstar, BI, Citi, Disney, Getty, Revenue, China News Service, Bain, Louis Vuitton Locations: Euromonitor, China, The Asia, Pacific, China's Hainan Province, Asia
In a letter to staff, McCarthy said the company needed to implement layoffs because it wouldn't be able to generate sustainable free cash flow with its current cost structure. "Achieving positive [free cash flow] makes Peloton a more attractive borrower, which is important as the company turns its attention to the necessary task of successfully refinancing its debt," McCarthy said in the memo. McCarthy had also expected Peloton to reach positive free cash flow by June — a goal the company said it reached early during its third quarter. In a letter to shareholders, Peloton said it generated $8.6 million in free cash flow but it's unclear how sustainable that number is. The company didn't provide specific guidance on what investors can expect with free cash flow in the quarters ahead but said it does expect to "deliver modest positive free cash flow" in its current quarter.
Persons: Barry McCarthy, McCarthy, Karen Boone, Chris Bruzzo, Jay Hoag, It's, John Foley, hasn't, Goldman Sachs, Boone, Barry, Bruzzo, , hadn't, Creditsafe, it's, Foley Organizations: Interactive, Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference, Spotify, Netflix, JPMorgan, LSEG, outperformance, CNBC Locations: Sun Valley , Idaho, lockstep
What Makes a Society More Resilient? Frequent Hardship.
  + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Carl Zimmer | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Traditionally, historians have studied these downturns qualitatively, by diving into the twists and turns of individual societies. In a study published Wednesday, these methods allowed Dr. Riris and his colleagues to answer a profound question: Why are some societies more resilient than others? The study, published in the journal Nature, compared 16 societies scattered across the world, in places like the Yukon and the Australian outback. The more often a society went through them, the more resilient it eventually became. “Over time, you will suffer less, essentially,” said Dr. Riris, an archaeologist at Bournemouth University in England.
Persons: Philip Riris, Riris, Organizations: Bournemouth University Locations: Yukon, England
Activist investor Ancora received a powerful endorsement in its efforts to secure a board change and to oust Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw on Monday, when proxy advisor Glass Lewis recommended the railroad's shareholders vote for 6 of Ancora's board nominees. "We believe Ancora has presented a compelling case for supporting a substantial overhaul of the Company's current leadership," Glass Lewis said in its report. Furthermore, Glass Lewis said Barber, Ancora's pick for CEO, and Jamie Boychuk, the activist's pick for COO, "have compelling credentials and track records." Ancora also seeks to install former CSX executive Boychuk as Barber's chief operating officer. Their support, coupled with Glass Lewis' endorsement, gives the activist powerful ammunition as it seeks to convince shareholders.
Persons: Ancora, Alan Shaw, Glass Lewis, Betsy Akins, Jim Barber, William Clyburn, Sameh Fahmy, Gilbert Lamphere, Allison Landry, Shaw, Amy Miles, Barber, Ancora's, Jamie Boychuk, Boychuk, John Orr Organizations: Norfolk Southern, Teamster, UPS, CNBC, CSX, Canadian National, CN, NSC, Norfolk Locations: Norfolk Southern, East Palestine , Ohio, Norfolk
Read previewLooking at the headline numbers, the US labor market is booming. OVOM Research/Bullandbearprofits.comWolfenbarger's views in contextOther market observers have started to warn of a weakening labor market in recent months. Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, shared several indicators in a client note earlier this month warning of a job market slowdown ahead. Pantheon MacroeconomicsBut whether the labor market actually weakens materially remains to be seen. AdvertisementIf Wolfenbarger is right and the labor market falls apart in short order, it could catch an exceptionally bullish market off guard.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Louis, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, There's Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Business, Labor Statistics, Fed, Conference, Treasury, OVOM, Pantheon, National Federation of Independent
Finally, consumers are dipping into savings to fund those purchases, creating a precarious scenario, if not now then down the road. With unemployment under 4%, it shouldn't be that surprising that prices aren't" going down, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. So you might have a sticky inflation scenario." "If inflation remains higher, the Fed will be faced with the difficult choice of pushing the economy into a recession, abandoning its soft-landing scenario, or tolerating inflation higher than 2%," Sanders said. "To us, accepting higher inflation is the more prudent option."
Persons: Justin Sullivan, Joseph LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, Biden, Mike Sanders, Sanders Organizations: Getty, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Nikko Securities, National Economic Council, Madison Investments Locations: San Rafael , California, U.S
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Since then, private-equity firms have poured $54.6 billion into sports, according to PitchBook data. And the field of potential investors is growing with Goldman Sachs helping rich clients invest in teams, which can drive up prices. AdvertisementLeagues also restrict PE investments, with some caps on the number of teams a firm can own stakes in or the ownership share a fund can hold. Scroll down to read about the private equity firms, listed alphabetically, that have been making the biggest moves in sports in recent years.
Persons: , Josh Harris, Rob Walton, Carlyle, Ben, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, Harris, Blackstone Group's David Blitzer, Lauren Leichtman, Arthur Levine, Sportico, RedBird, Gerry Cardinale, There's Organizations: Service, MLB, NBA, Business, Washington, Denver Broncos, Amazon, Sports, Ben Fund, Bluestone Equity Partners, GMF, Apollo Global Management, Blackstone Group's, Levine, Capital Partners, San Diego Wave, NFL Locations: downturns
Despite economic challenges looming large — including prolonged downturns in both the housing and stock market — China’s fascination with luxury watches remains undiminished. Cyril Zingaro/WWGF/KeystoneCertainly at this year’s fair, well-dressed, well-accessorized Chinese customers appeared unfazed by economic uncertainties. After more than 20 years working in the region, he believes China’s economic slowdown is just a temporary phase. “The situation may be slightly (more) challenging for mid-level luxury brands (whose clients’ disposable incomes are potentially more at the whim of market forces). Collectors appreciate the craftsmanship, rarity, and heritage associated with luxury timepieces, which can hold or increase in value over time.
Persons: Matthieu Humair, Cyril Zingaro, Jackson Yee, Jaeger, Zhu Yilong, Wang Yang, Xiao Zhan, David Sadigh, Patek Philippe, Van Cleef, ” Sadigh, Valentin Flauraud, , Ricardo Guadalupe, “ We’ve, Pierre Albouy, Keystone Carson Chan, Richard Mille Asia, Bonhams, ” Chan, Raphael Young, Lange, Söhne, Wilhelm Schmid, Lumen, Chan, Vacheron, Young, Roger Dubuis, Dior, Louis Vuitton, Gucci — Chanel, Hermes, Hermès, Attelé, Chanel, Mademoiselle Chanel, Organizations: Geneva CNN —, Federation of, Swiss Watch Industry, IWC, Digital Luxury, CNN, Keystone, Fondation, , Berkley, Couture Locations: Geneva, China, Hong Kong, Asia, Switzerland, Chopard, Europe, , Asia — China, Guadalupe, Swiss, watchmaking
New York CNN —Big banks kick off earnings season Friday. “Earnings season just became significantly more important,” said JJ Kinahan, chief executive of IG North America, in a Wednesday note. On one hand, lofty rates could help pad banks’ net interest income, since they can charge a higher borrowing rate for loans and mortgages. Inflation has been a bane on Biden’s presidency, with voters consistently giving him low marks for his handling of the economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that policymakers want to see more evidence that inflation is headed toward their 2% goal.
Persons: , JJ Kinahan, JPMorgan, Wells, You’ll, Carol Schleif, Wall, Jamie Dimon, , Alicia Wallace, Friday’s, Joe Biden, ” Biden, Bryan Mena, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, IG North America, JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Citigroup, PNC Financial Services, BMO Family Office, Federal Reserve, Wall, Traders, Bureau of Labor Statistics, , Federal, Fed Locations: New York, Wells Fargo, pare
In Praise of Middle Managers - The New York Times
  + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( David Brooks | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
Nobody writes poems about middle managers. So how do these managers work their magic? Let me give you a few features of ethical leadership:Knowing that moral formation is part of the job. When I was starting out at “PBS NewsHour” and I said something he thought was smart, his eyes would crinkle with pleasure. When I said something he thought was crass, his mouth would turn down in displeasure.
Persons: I’ve, Tucker Carlson, Ted Lasso, Lasso, fellas, Jim Lehrer Organizations: PBS
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