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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere are still many reasons for mortgage rates to climb upward, says Moody'sCristian DeRitis, Deputy Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, discusses the path ahead for mortgage rates.
Persons: Moody's Cristian DeRitis
The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times in the last year and a half. This has prevented a lot of pain, as floating rate debt resets on a regular basis as benchmark rates rise. He pointed to separate Equifax data that shows nearly 70% of mortgages carry an interest rate below 4%. "Most auto, student, and personal loans carry fixed rates as well, further insulating borrowers from interest rate increases." "Borrowers seeking new credit have been directly affected by higher rates leading some to forego taking on additional credit," deRitis said.
Persons: Cristian deRitis, deRitis, Jerome Powell, hasn't Organizations: Federal, Service, Fed, Markets Locations: Wall, Silicon
The last, best hope for homebuyers
  + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +12 min
But there may be one last hope for salvation for these hard-pressed homebuyers: brand-spanking new houses. Many builders are even dangling perks like cheaper loans or other discounts to ease the pain of higher mortgage rates. Homebuilding is typically a cyclical industry, following the ups and downs of the broader housing market. Of course, people will always move for reasons that have nothing to do with mortgage rates. Even if buyers get some relief from new housing construction, builders are still a long way off from bridging the housing shortfall.
Persons: Richard de Chazal, William Blair, de Chazal, Realtor.com, bottoming, John Burns, Black Knight, Mike Simonsen, Simonsen, bode, it's, Sheryl Palmer, Taylor Morrison, Palmer, Cristian deRitis, Jay Parsons, Matthew Walsh, Walsh, Freddie Mac, Lawrence Yun, They're, production's, James Rodriguez Organizations: Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, John Burns Research, Consulting, Altos Research, National Association of Homebuilders, Builders, Moody's
The result is a housing market that's fundamentally out of whack. The housing market has changed for good — and with the benefit of time-earned wisdom, we can pinpoint the moment it entered a new era. Two big things happened during the initial response to the pandemic that launched the housing market past the point of no return. Both factors have propelled competition in the housing market to new heights and made it challenging for would-be buyers to find their footing. Some aspects of the pandemic-era housing market that once seemed "odd" are increasingly becoming new norms.
Forecasts are a mixed bag , but most expect prices to either remain flat or continue cooling by 1% to 10% from 2022's highs. However, with the economy expected to cool and possibly dip into a recession , many recent forecasts expect rates to drop to 6% or below in 2024, including a Fannie Mae projection of 5.2%. With U.S. home prices dropping and mortgage rates projected to dip sometime in 2024, homebuyers might be wondering if they should wait until next year to land a more affordable deal. "Returning to mortgage rates of 3% or 4% is not going to happen, in my view," says Yun, who points out that historically rates have been higher. Plus, if "mortgage rates go back down to that level, people can always refinance their mortgages," says Yun.
A Moody's analysis said GOP spending cuts in a debt ceiling increase could cost Americans 2.6 million jobs. Negotiations to raise the debt ceiling aren't making much progress, with a default potentially as soon as 4 months away. "In fact, the economic impact would be so great, that it would result in even more job losses than a short-lived debt ceiling breach, in both the short- and long-term." If there were to be a default, Moody's sees two scenarios. As Insider previously reported, Republican lawmakers have yet to detail where exactly they want to cut spending in a debt ceiling deal, but they have floated some ideas.
Get ready for a ‘slowcession’ in 2023, Moody’s says
  + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
But Moody’s Analytics says the more likely scenario is a “slowcession,” where growth grinds to a near halt but a full economic downturn is narrowly avoided. “Under almost any scenario, the economy is set to have a difficult 2023,” Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi wrote in a report on Tuesday. Why Moody’s is predicting no recessionIn addition to cooling inflation, Moody’s expressed optimism about the ability of consumers to weather the storm in 2023. “Shoppers are the firewall between an economy in recession and an economy that skirts a downturn,” Zandi wrote. “It is important not to be Pollyannish, but it also important not to convince ourselves that a recession is inevitable,” Zandi wrote.
These standards are based on factors including the borrower's financial stability and the state of the housing market and economy. Finding the right size for the credit box is much easier said than done. A tidal wave of foreclosures followed, plunging the US housing market — and the global economy — into chaos. Even just stabilizing the credit box over time could also help smooth out some of the boom-and-bust cycles that have come to define the housing market. "If we do not address this intrinsic cyclicality, the housing market will continue to experience boom-bust cycles, leaving destruction in their wake," the paper said.
Allison Dinner | Getty ImagesThere are signs inflation may fall further in coming months, but housing threatens to mute any improvement. The consumer price index, a key barometer of inflation, rose 7.7% in October from a year ago. That may seem counterintuitive at a time when many observers have said the U.S. is in a "housing recession." The shelter category is up 6.9% in the last year. The rental and housing markets are coolingBusà Photography | Moment | Getty ImagesWhy shelter prices lag
John Burns Real Estate Consulting expects price drops of 20% or more for certain housing markets. Higher mortgage rates have wrecked demand for homes, but the firm says prices are still too high. Devyn Bachman, the senior vice president of research for John Burns, told Insider she had begun to expect "GFC-like pricing declines in certain markets." A survey conducted by John Burns last month found roughly 18% of homebuilders were already reporting year-over-year net home-price declines. "It's going to be a challenging one to two years for anyone involved in housing," Bachman said.
It means US home prices are now on a downward trajectory even if the economy avoids a recession. It could mean home prices will fall in the coming months, even if the US avoids a recession. Inflationary pressures have had the opposite impact on rental prices, which continue to climb — although growth is now moderating. "The uncertainty and volatility in financial markets is heavily impacting mortgage rates," Sam Khater, the chief economist at Freddie Mac told Insider. In a separate statement, Khater said that "impacted by higher rates, house prices are softening," and home sales are falling.
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