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☆ Morgan Stanley lays out the stock market's best-case scenario for this week's Fed decision — and 2 areas to buy after the cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Ideally the Fed will cut rates by a half-point without triggering growth worries, Morgan Stanley says. According to new research from Morgan Stanley, that would be the best possible outcome for stocks. Ahead of the rate cut, Morgan Stanley suggested that investors increase exposure to two stock cohorts that have historically outperformed in similar environments: defensive and high-quality. Defensive stocks include sectors such as utilities and consumer staples — groups that are less reliant on macroeconomic conditions to perform well. Large caps also tend to outperform small caps both before and after the Fed's first rate cut.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, —, Morgan, cyclicals, Wilson Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve

☆ She’s the boss: The ‘she-conomy’ boom continues with new business growth
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

In 2019, that picture looked quite different: 29% of new business owners were women, according to Gusto. The US Census does not break out new business formation by gender, and the most recent available data on women-owned businesses is from 2021. The business growth and the community impact garnered her a Young Entrepreneur Award from the US Small Business Administration. Filling the (skilled trades) gapYelp also found that in 2023, women opened more new home services businesses than beauty businesses. “There has absolutely been an uptick in interest over the last few years in this [skilled trades] work” by women, Perez said.

Persons: Bernadette Corbeil, “, ”, Corbeil, she’s, ” Tara Lewis, Bernadette Corbeil Yelp, Yelp, Abby Vandenberg, Ventureneer, Geri Stengel, Wells, Marie, Cyr, Marie Saint, leapfrogged, Saint, ” Lewis, workforces, Allie Perez, Perez, didn’t, Blythe Zemel, Ginny Stogner McDavid, Bernadette Corbeil’s, I’ve, ’ ” Organizations: CNN, Artemis Construction, Wells, Marie Saint, Cyr, New York City Public Schools, US Small Business Administration, NYC, of Labor Statistics, National Association of Women, Construction, Alamo City, George Plumbing Company, Texas Women, AFL Locations: Wildwood , Missouri, hyperdrive, ”, New York, SIBSPlace, Rockville Centre , New York, New, Saint, San Antonio, Alamo, happenstance, Harris, In Missouri

☆ China’s exports jump thanks to demand from India, Russia and other emerging markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-07 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Hong Kong CNN —China registered a surprise jump in foreign trade at the start of the year, partly because of strong demand from Russia, India and emerging markets in Africa and Latin America. China’s economy is battling a number of headwinds, including weak consumer and investor confidence, high youth unemployment and a long-running real estate crisis. Apart from the weak base effect, strong demand from emerging markets helped China’s trade surge at the start of the year. Meanwhile, China’s exports to Russia increased 12.5%, representing a slowdown from the rapid growth seen last year. “At the current juncture, it is likely too soon to call for a revival in China’s trade sector,” said HSBC analysts on Thursday.

Persons: ”, Nomura, “, Lynn Song, Biden, Wang Wentao Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Exports, European Union, “, HSBC, Greater China, ING, European Commission, Wall Street Locations: Hong Kong, China, Russia, India, Africa, Latin America, Moscow, United States, Japan, Australia, Greater

☆ Tulsa offered remote workers $10,000 to move there. The results show how the program shook up the local economy — and what the future of smaller cities could look like.
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-25 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

At the end of 2022, Tulsa Remote had brought in almost $307 million in direct labor income to the economy, according to Tulsa Remote. For every two Tulsa Remote members who move to the city, three more come with them. But what happens to the rest of the economy when remote workers come to town? Remote workers coming to town benefited high-skilled local service workers — workers who have at least some college education — more, per the research, since they had more variety in local goods to choose from and consume and are making more money. “There are people who definitely get more benefit out of it, like homeowners or the local service sector workers,” Yoo said.

Persons: that's, Hoyoung Yoo, Justin Harlan, Yoo, ” Yoo, That’s, “, ”, Parker Vincent, ” Vincent, There’s, “ I've, Noah Sheidlower, Laura Landers, Harlan, Tulsa Remoters, —, didn't, ” Harlan, Vincent, ’ Organizations: Tulsa Remote, Tulsa, Brookings, of Economics, University of Wisconsin Locations: Tulsa , Oklahoma, Tulsa, Madison, ”, Los Angeles, —

For more than a decade, the pioneers of the cryptocurrency industry envisioned digital coins as an alternate branch of finance, a renegade sector that would operate outside the reach of big banks and government regulators. In recent years, regulators have seized on that legal precedent to argue that cryptocurrencies are just another security, like shares of Apple or General Motors. The crypto industry has fought back, leaving it in a legal gray zone with an uncertain future in the United States. Now the long-running dispute is edging closer to a resolution, as federal judges begin weighing in on a series of lawsuits by the nation’s top securities regulator against some of the largest crypto firms. This month, judges held hearings in two of the most consequential cases, which could dictate whether the multitrillion-dollar crypto industry can continue growing in the United States.

Organizations: Apple, General Motors Locations: United States

☆ Chip stocks are deep in overbought territory, led by Nvidia, and may be due for a pullback
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Semiconductor stocks are in the trenches of overbought territory. Against this backdrop, CNBC Pro looked looked into the SMH to see which individual chipmakers were also overbought. Nvidia is the most overbought stock on the list with a 14-day RSI reading of 83.91. Broadcom also made the overbought list with a 14-day RSI reading of 71.71. Other chip stocks on the overbought list include sector heavyweight Taiwan Semiconductor and AMD .

Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, It's, Nvidia's Organizations: VanEck Semiconductor, Wolfe Research, CNBC, Nvidia, FactSet, Broadcom, Citi, VMware, Taiwan Semiconductor, AMD Locations: U.S

☆ How $21 billion Balyasny is building an AI equivalent of a senior analyst
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Bianca Chan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Balyasny Asset Management is working to build the AI equivalent of a senior analyst by combining multiple different AI tools, the hedge fund's head of applied AI told Business Insider. Balyasny is working to plug BAM ChatGPT, as it's called, into every internal and third-party dataset at Balyasny. "We're pretty laser-focused right now to move from junior analysts to senior analysts," Flanagan said of the agents' abilities. AdvertisementCharlie Flanagan, head of applied AI, Balyasny Asset Management Balyasny Asset ManagementHedge funds are keen to capitalize on the AI wave sweeping up Wall Street. AdvertisementLooking ahead, Flanagan is encouraging analyst and PM teams to build their own "agents" using AI building blocks created by the Applied AI team.

Persons: we're, Charlie Flanagan, Flanagan, Slack, aren't, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Balyasny, Management, Business, Microsoft, Software, Man, Sigma, Wall, Citadel, BAM, intel Locations: Bridgewater

OTTAWA, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The Canadian economy unexpectedly contracted at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the third quarter, data showed on Thursday, avoiding a recession but showing growth stumbling ahead of next week's interest-rate decision. The economy avoided slipping into a technical recession - defined as two consecutive quarter-on-quarter contractions - because second-quarter GDP data was revised up to a 1.4% gain from an initial report of a 0.2% decline, Statistics Canada said. The BoC has remained on the sidelines since July after lifting its benchmark interest rate to a 22-year high of 5% to tame inflation. "The bottom line is that the economy is still sputtering along," said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group. Real GDP most likely edged up 0.2% in October after a 0.1% gain in September, Statscan said.

Persons: Doug Porter, Royce Mendes, Bipan Rai, Statscan, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, Dale Smith, Divya Rajagopal, Fergal Smith, Mark Porter Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada's, Statistics, BMO Capital Markets, Canadian, U.S ., BoC, Desjardins Group, Bank of Canada, Bank, CIBC Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Canadian, Statistics Canada, North America, Ottawa, Toronto

But in recent quarters, we have witnessed a dramatic shift higher in interest rates, a move that investors should not fear but embrace. In addition to the rise in nominal interest rates, we have also experienced a similar increase in real interest rates (rates adjusted for inflation). Granted, the journey to higher yields has been painful to bond investors. When calculating fixed-income returns for most bonds, there are two components: price return and income return. As an example, the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index posted a price return of -15.3% and an income return of +2.3%.

Persons: Bonds, Taylor Swift Organizations: Istock, Getty, Treasury, Bloomberg, Bond, Federal

CNN —Target is closing nine stores in four metropolitan areas: the San Francisco Bay Area, Portland, Seattle, and New York. Here are four charts showing what retailers are facing in those areas where Target is closing stores. The six counties where Target is closing stores saw exoduses in high earners larger than the average for similar counties. Census data also shows that the six counties where Target is closing stores had a higher percentage of remote workers compared to their states as a whole. In the markets where Target is closing stores, the shortages persist.

Persons: it’s, David Johnston, Connor O’Brien, ”, O’Brien, ” O’Brien, Johnston Organizations: CNN, Coresight Research, National Retail Federation, Economic, Group, McKinsey, Department of Commerce, of, Labor Locations: San Francisco Bay Area, Portland, Seattle, New York, it’s, O’Brien

☆ OPEC hikes long-term oil demand outlook — in stark contrast to other predictions of peak crude
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( Sam Meredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

OPEC on Monday raised its medium- and long-term forecasts for global oil demand. OPEC's long-term forecast for global oil demand diverges from that of the International Energy Agency, the world's leading energy watchdog. OPEC and the IEA, both big names in the energy industry, are currently locked in a war of words over peak oil demand. For its long-term oil demand forecast to be met, OPEC said oil sector investments of $14 trillion, or around $610 billion on average per year, would be needed. In the medium term, OPEC said global oil demand was likely to reach a level of 110.2 million bpd in 2028, reflecting a jump of 10.6 million bpd when compared to 2022 levels.

Persons: Haitham, Ghais Organizations: International Energy Agency, OPEC, Oil Outlook Locations: Nolan , Texas, OPEC, India, China, Africa

A Bank of Montreal (BMO) logo is seen outside of a branch in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, February 14, 2019. REUTERS/Chris Wattie/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsTORONTO, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Bank of Montreal (BMO) (BMO.TO) is winding down its retail auto finance business and shifting focus to other areas in a move that will result in an unspecified number of job losses, Canada's third largest bank said on Saturday. "By winding down the indirect retail auto finance business, we have the ability to focus our resources on areas where we believe our competitive positioning is strongest," BMO said in a statement to Reuters. Under the indirect retail auto finance business, the bank provides financing to the vehicle seller instead of directly to the buyer, who makes monthly payments to the lender. The United States now accounts for more than two-thirds of BMO's overall profits.

Persons: Chris Wattie, Paul Hunsley, Gross, Nivedita Balu, Denny Thomas, Jane Merriman, Susan Fenton Organizations: of Montreal, BMO, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Montreal, Reuters, Bank, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada, United States, California, Toronto

This, regulators say, makes it harder for banks to cut costs and absorb losses in a downturn. But many bankers are expected to resist swapping guaranteed pay for potentially higher bonuses, which can swing wildly across economic cycles. UK Finance, the industry body for banks in Britain, did not respond to the public consultation, leaving individual members to comment if they wanted to. Others warned against overplaying the significance of bonuses in Britain's battle to grow its financial sector, still reeling from the loss of big-ticket listings, such as Arm Holdings. "Compensation is a small point in the grand scheme of things of a vibrant financial sector.

Persons: Toby Melville, Luke Hildyard, there'll, Suzanne Horne, Paul Hastings, Horne, Simon Patterson, Edelmann, Oliver Wyman, Sinead Cruise, Huw Jones, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: City of, Regulators, European Union, Bank of England, Financial, Bankers, Reuters, European Banking Authority, International Employment, Britain, EU, Finance, Arm Holdings, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, Banks, European, New York, Singapore, EU, Paris, Frankfurt, United States, Japan, Switzerland, London, Europe

☆ ETFs delivered mixed messages in the first half. Thoughts on what might work for the second half
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Despite a strong first half performance for the broad equity markets, ETF equity flows have been subpar this year. The big money has gone into Treasury ETFs and money market funds. First half inflows were subpar The first half ended with a modest acceleration of inflows into equity ETFs. Regardless, first half equity inflows were still well short of the prior years' first half activity. Join us Wednesday at 1:10 p.m. on ETF Edge for our second half ETF playbook.

Persons: Todd Sohn, . Sohn, Sohn, " Sohn, Dave Nadig Organizations: Tech, Energy, P Tech, Nasdaq, Fidelity, Renaissance Capital, Technology, Nvidia, Microsoft, Edge, VettaFi

☆ Canada's economy unchanged in April, but likely surged 0.4% in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

OTTAWA, June 30 (Reuters) - The Canadian economy was unchanged in April from March, missing forecasts, before likely rebounding with a 0.4% jump in real gross domestic product in May, Statistics Canada said on Friday. March GDP was upwardly revised to 0.1% growth from an initial report of flat growth. Canada's goods-producing sector expanded 0.1% in April, but were offset by a slight decline in the service-producing sector. The mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector and the utilities sector are expected to be post declines in May. Declines in wholesale trade as well as finance and insurance also contributed to the softness in the services sector.

Persons: Statscan, Ismail Shakil, Dale Smith Organizations: OTTAWA, Statistics, Reuters, Bank of Canada, Public Service Alliance of Canada, Thomson Locations: Statistics Canada, Ottawa

OTTAWA, June 30 (Reuters) - Canada's economy regained momentum in May after stalling in April, Statistics Canada data showed on Friday, leaving the door open for the Bank of Canada to hike interest rates in July. The economy was unchanged in April from March, missing forecasts, in what economists said was the fallout from a federal civil servant strike in April. Canada's goods-producing sector expanded 0.1% in April, but were offset by a slight decline in the service-producing sector. Figueiredo expects the central bank to raise interest rate by another 0.25% in July. Money markets see a roughly 61% chance of the central bank hiking rates in July.

Persons: Statscan, it's, Doug Porter, Desjardins, Tiago Figueiredo, Figueiredo, Ismail Shakil, Nivedita Balu, Dale Smith, Jonathan Oatis, Philippa Fletcher Organizations: OTTAWA, Statistics, Bank of Canada, Reuters, BMO Capital Markets, Public Service Alliance of Canada, Toronto Stock, Canadian, Thomson Locations: Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Toronto

Experts have mixed reactions on whether the budget will meet IMF requirements and the impact on the economy. The ‘No new Taxes on Industry’ claim is belied by increase in super tax and that too in not a fully progressive way. Will retailers and the agri sectors that together contribute 40% contribute more than 2% as a result of the budget? SHAHBAZ ASHRAF, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AT FRIM VENTURES“It is surely not a budget that the IMF would approve of. "The regional energy price budget, which has built in cross subsidies, general collection and distribution losses is something the export industry cannot sustain."

Persons: GHIAS KHAN, EHSAN MALIK, SHAHID HABIB, ARIF HABIB, ZULQARNAIN, ABDUL ALEEM, IRFAN IQBAL SHEIKH, MUSTAFA PASHA, SHAHBAZ ASHRAF, they've, There's, ” FAHAD RAUF, ISMAIL IQBAL, GOHAR EJAZ, Ariba Shahid, Jonathan Oatis, Nick Zieminski Organizations: International Monetary Fund, IMF, Pakistan, Reuters, FX, ENGRO CORP, OF, PAKISTAN BUSINESS, Industry, PAKISTAN, Company, FEDERATION OF PAKISTAN, OF COMMERCE, PKR, IN, MILLS ASSOCIATION, Thomson Locations: KARACHI, Pakistan, PAKISTAN, Karachi

☆ Franck Bohbot’s nostalgic photos evoke the arcade’s ‘golden age’
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Marianna Cerini | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Franck Bohbot Bohbot's book features shots from over a dozen arcades, which he described as each having their own "very different vibe." Franck Bohbot Bohbot said his project was intended to "document arcade culture and the escapism it provides." Franck Bohbot Most of Bohbot's shots were captured in 2019, before the pandemic brought his project to a temporary halt. Franck Bohbot Bohbot documented not only the games but also the crowds that the arcades attracted. Franck Bohbot Bohbot said the book serves as a love letter to L.A., which he called "a complicated city that often feels like it's hiding parts of itself."

Persons: Franck Bohbot’s, “, Bohbot, ” Bohbot, Franck Bohbot's, Franck Bohbot Bohbot's, Franck Bohbot, Franck Bohbot Bohbot, ”, California’s, Japan —, Kong, seeped, —, we’ve, Franck Bohbot “, ‘ Organizations: CNN, Dave, Buster's, Amusement Corporation, East Hollywood, New York City Mayor Fiorello La Guardia, Chicago Coin’s, New York Times, America’s, Atari, Setanta Books Locations: Los Angeles, California, Calimesa , California, North Hollywood, Hollywood, Santa Monica , California, L.A, East, New York, Japan, Chicago

☆ China rolls out plan to boost trade amid weakening global demand
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING, April 25 (Reuters) - China's cabinet on Tuesday issued a plan to stabilise its vital trade sector, including supporting exports of automobiles and facilitating visas for overseas businessmen, as subdued global demand threatens its exports outlook. China will also further smooth the issuing of visas for overseas business people, while increasing inbound and outbound flights, according to the statement. "The commerce ministry together with relevant departments should closely follow the operation of foreign trade, analyse the changes of situation" and "adjust and improve relevant policies" in a bid to "help firms stabilise orders and explore markets," said the statement. China will also properly respond to unreasonable foreign trade restrictions and strengthen training and guidance to local governments and firms affected, the statement added. Financial institutions, it said, are encouraged to expand the scale of yuan settlement in cross-border trade transactions to better meet the demand from firms to hedge currency risks.

☆ Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Rivian, Western Alliance, Peloton and more
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Netflix posted a quarterly revenue of $8.16 billion, slightly below the $8.18 billion expectation per Refinitiv. Zion rose 4.3% ahead of its earnings report after the bell. Tesla — The electric vehicle maker pulled back 1 % ahead of its scheduled quarterly earnings after Wednesday's closing bell. CDW issued quarterly revenue guidance of $5.1 billion, which came out below the $5.58 billion consensus estimate from analysts surveyed by FactSet. Citizens Financial reported earnings per share of $1, falling short of analysts' expectations of $1.13, according to Refinitiv data.

☆ Nvidia, Tesla and Meta are helping power a growth-stock surge that has challenged BlackRock and Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Growth stocks are beating value peers by the most in 3 years, despite interest-rate increases and banking-sector turmoil. Sizzling rallies in Nvidia, Meta and Tesla shares have helped power the surge in growth stocks. BlackRock strategists projected a similar view, saying in a late February report that they expect value stocks to outperform. Nvidia, Tesla, MetaStunning rallies in the shares of tech giants such as Nvidia and Meta as well as electric-vehicle maker Tesla have helped growth stocks beat their value peers by such an impressive margin. "Lower rates feed into lower discount rates, making future cash flows of growth companies more attractive," Dutta said.

☆ Big changes in the S&P 500 Friday highlight the power of index providers
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Ever wonder why Walmart is classified as a consumer staples stock in the S&P 500, but similar retailers such as Target, Dollar General and Dollar Tree are classified as consumer discretionary stocks? Target, Dollar General and Dollar Tree will move from the consumer discretionary corner of the stock market, and join Walmart as consumer staples companies. Consumer staples will get bigger; consumer discretionary will get a little smaller. If you're an investor in a broadly diversified total market index fund like the S&P 500, the changes will make little difference to you. "Are they reflecting changes in consumer demand or the changes in the marketplace structure?"

Organizations: & & '

☆ Europe is set to ramp up its oil war against Russia — and markets are bracing for more disruption
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Sam Meredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The European Union's ban on Russian oil product exports is slated to kick in on Feb. 5. The Group of Seven implemented a $60 price cap on Russian oil on Dec. 5. "We also expect this to put upward pressure on prices for oil products more generally." Yet this also means that they will continue to take cheap imported crude oil and process it domestically rather than buying refined oil." "This will create logistical challenges and higher transport costs if Russia seeks to redirect product flows to Asia, as it has done with crude oil," analysts at Eurasia Group said.

☆ As China abandons zero-Covid, what will the economy look like in 2023?
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

And with the global economy now facing significant challenges, including energy shortages, slowing growth and high inflation, China’s reopening could provide a much-needed and timely boost. China’s historic property downturn and a potential global recession could also cause more headaches in the new year, they added. They expect China’s economy to contract by 0.8% in the first quarter of 2023, before rebounding in the second quarter. Trade had powered much of China’s economic growth earlier this year, as exports were boosted by rising prices of the country’s goods and a weaker currency. “But a looming global recession means they probably have further to fall over the next few quarters.”

Amazon France said there had been no sign of disruption to operations so far. Two French union officials said they were not expecting a big turnout because the rising cost-of-living was driving employees to seek overtime. "As an employer, Amazon offers great pay, benefits and development opportunities - all in an attractive and safe working environment," a spokesperson for Amazon in Germany said in a statement. [1/6] French CGT union members demonstrate in front of the Amazon logistics center in Bretigny-sur-Orge, near Paris, as part of a global day of actions against Amazon on Black Friday, France, November 25, 2022. Workers at a warehouse in the western city of Koblenz were seen standing outside near a red-and-white banner that read "We're on strike" in German, French and English.

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