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☆ Biden’s manufacturing industry is expanding, but that could be bad for inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-07 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But a resurgence in the industry could complicate the Federal Reserve’s ongoing inflation fight, either delaying the first interest rate cut or resulting in fewer cuts this year, some economists say. Interest rates have been at a two-decade high since July, after the Fed raised rates aggressively over the prior year and a half. The economy picking up further strength would spook Wall Street because of what it means for interest rates — and some manufacturers say they’re optimistic about the future. The Bank of Canada announces its latest interest rate decision. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases March inflation data.

Persons: Joe Biden, ”, Tom Barkin, “, Mary Daly, ” Daly, Jerome Powell, Neel Kashkari, ” Kashkari, ” Richard de Chazal, Blair, they’re “, Amazon’s, It’s, Ramishah Maruf, Amazon, haven’t, Read Organizations: Washington CNN, Institute for Supply Management, Congress, Fed, ” Richmond Fed, ” San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis, Dow, Blair Equity Research, Amazon, Fresh, Delta Air Lines, US Labor Department, Index, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, National Bureau of Statistics, Constellation Brands, European Central Bank, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, State, National Statistics, The University of Michigan Locations: Richmond , Virginia, ” San, Las Vegas, India, Wells Fargo, Progressive, BlackRock

Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Meta, Amazon and Apple are all due to report this week. A few hours after the Treasury announces, the Fed will also conclude its two-day meeting, the first of 2024, and issue a statement on interest rates. “They are determined to avoid making the same mistake twice.”The week ends with Friday’s monthly jobs number for January. Rounding out the week will be a report on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. The final reading for January is expected to show consumers feeling happier about the state of the economy and inflation.

Persons: ”, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, Jerome Powell, “, Powell, Bill Adams, ” Adams Organizations: Microsoft, Federal Reserve, Conference Board, Consumers, Labor Department, Treasury, Reserve, Comerica Bank, Fed, University of Michigan

☆ The state of the US housing market in 5 charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-05 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewThe US housing market is facing historic unaffordability and it's kept countless Americans sidelined or forced to face hefty monthly home payments. This lock-in effect has created a tale of two markets: those who have been crushed by high mortgage rates and those who have mostly gotten by unaffected. Many Americans secured lower mortgage rates during the pandemic. AdvertisementBut in 2023, that dearth of supply for existing homes was a boon for homebuilders — and Wall Street took notice. William BlairFreddie Mac Multi-family Home Serious Delinquency Rate William Blair, Freddie MacUltimately, in 2024 William Blair forecasts supply to improve, mortgage rates to fall, and existing homeowners to return to the market out of necessity.

Persons: —, it's, William Blair, Richard de Chazal, homebuilders, William Blair's, de Chazal, William Blair Freddie Mac, Freddie Mac Organizations: Service, Industry, Business, National Association of Realtors, Federal, Wall, Bloomberg

Last Friday provided a split-screen view of the markets and the Federal Reserve. “Indeed, we look for the return of striking workers to add nearly 45K jobs to November’s payrolls. Wednesday brings the first measure of the November job market when private payroll firm ADP releases its monthly survey of employers. October came in at 150,000, a drop from the recent trend of around 200,000 jobs added per month. Consequently, we expect the post-meeting statement will keep the door open to the possibility of additional tightening this cycle.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, ” William Blair, Richard de Chazal, that’s, de Chazal, –, payrolls, “, Sam Bullard, November’s, Bullard, Wells Fargo Organizations: Federal Reserve, Spelman College, “, Futures, United Auto Workers, UAW, Hollywood, Wells, Labor

A lot of the spending was driven by deals and buy-now, pay-later programs. The Fed’s “beige book” report on the economy is out on Wednesday, and that will show how inflation is affecting businesses and consumers. But consumers continue to express concern over inflation that has left overall prices higher by about 18% since 2021. “With inflation falling as the Fed keeps rates unchanged, real interest rates continue to tighten,” said Richard de Chazal, macro analyst at William Blair. But consumers remain concerned about inflation and just how much will be seen on Tuesday when the Conference Board releases its consumer confidence index for November.

Persons: SpendingPulse, ”, Vivek Pandya, Signifyd, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, “ Organizations: Adobe Analytics, Adobe Digital, Consumers, Retailers, Federal Reserve, Fed, Wells, ”, Conference Board

That would be a lag of eight months, significantly longer than the average gap between last hike and first cut going back decades. "In the past markets have tended to underestimate how high rates are raised and underestimate how low rates are cut. Inflation targeting, more sophisticated financial markets, transparent central bank communications, and greater central bank autonomy since the 1990s have all contributed as well. Brazil's central bank, one of the first to raise rates in early 2021, has started cutting them after a 12-month pause. Current market pricing suggests that will not come until 2025, which would be an even longer lag.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Andrew Kelly ORLANDO, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, de Chazal, Joe Lavorgna, BoE, Milton Friedman's, Jamie McGeever, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Nikko Securities America, Bank of, Reuters, The Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: New, New York City, U.S, Andrew Kelly ORLANDO , Florida, Brazil's

☆ Moderate US economic growth expected in second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP growth likely increased at a 1.8% annualized rate last quarter after rising at a 2.0% pace in the first quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, likely remained a pillar of support, although the pace of growth slowed from the second quarter's robust 4.2% rate. Further contribution to GDP growth was expected from government spending. Inventory investment is a wild card, though most economists are penciling in a contribution to GDP growth of at least five tenths of a percentage point. Business sharply reduced inventory accumulation in the January-March quarter in anticipation of weaker domestic demand, slicing 2.14 percentage points off GDP growth that period.

Persons: Dean Maki, they're, Mike Skordeles, Joe Biden's, Sean Snaith, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Point72, Management, Labor Department, Truist Advisory Services, Investment, University of Central Florida's Institute, Economic, Fed, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Stamford , Connecticut, Atlanta, United States, London

☆ US new home sales fall, but trend remains strong
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Summary New home sales fall 2.5% in June; up 23.8% year-on-yearMedian new house price drops 4.0% year-on-yearWASHINGTON, July 26 (Reuters) - Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell in June after three straight monthly increases, but the trend remained strong as an acute shortage of previously owned homes underpins demand. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for a small share of U.S. home sales, would drop to a rate of 725,000 units. New home sales are counted at the signing of a contract, making them a leading indicator of the housing market. While the overall the housing market continues to stabilize, higher mortgage rates and the renewed house price appreciation could delay a recovery. The median new house price in June was $415,400, a 4.0% drop from a year ago.

Persons: Conrad DeQuadros, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, Jerome, Powell, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S, Commerce Department, Brean, Reuters, Mortgage, Association, National Association of Home Builders, Federal, Treasury, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, U.S, Midwest

☆ The last, best hope for homebuyers
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

But there may be one last hope for salvation for these hard-pressed homebuyers: brand-spanking new houses. Many builders are even dangling perks like cheaper loans or other discounts to ease the pain of higher mortgage rates. Homebuilding is typically a cyclical industry, following the ups and downs of the broader housing market. Of course, people will always move for reasons that have nothing to do with mortgage rates. Even if buyers get some relief from new housing construction, builders are still a long way off from bridging the housing shortfall.

Persons: Richard de Chazal, William Blair, de Chazal, Realtor.com, bottoming, John Burns, Black Knight, Mike Simonsen, Simonsen, bode, it's, Sheryl Palmer, Taylor Morrison, Palmer, Cristian deRitis, Jay Parsons, Matthew Walsh, Walsh, Freddie Mac, Lawrence Yun, They're, production's, James Rodriguez Organizations: Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, John Burns Research, Consulting, Altos Research, National Association of Homebuilders, Builders, Moody's

☆ December consumer prices didn’t actually fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Minneapolis CNN —December consumer prices rose from the month before and did not fall as previously thought, according to revised data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday. The newly calibrated Consumer Price Index shows that prices rose 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in December from November versus a previously estimated decline of 0.1%. The latest annual adjustments show slight shifts in the month-on-month inflation trend for 2022 — with November and October revised up by 0.1 percentage points. “This means that this 2023 CPI report will be based on consumer spending patterns that took place in 2021, as opposed to 2022’s CPI data, which was based on spending data over 2019-2020,” William Blair analyst Richard de Chazal wrote in a note Friday. Here’s how the adjusted data looks for 2022:Month: Original data vs. RevisedJanuary: 0.6% vs. 0.6%February: 0.8% vs. 0.7%March: 1.2% vs. 1%April: 0.3% vs. 0.4%May: 1% vs. 0.9%June: 1.3% vs. 1.2%July: 0.1% vs. 0%August: 0.1% vs. 0.2%September: 0.4% vs. 0.4%October: 0.4% vs. 0.5%November: 0.1% vs. 0.2%December: -0.1% vs. 0.1%

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