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Its peak $100 billion valuation once made it the world's third largest privately-held company, behind TikTok owner Bytedance and Elon Musk's SpaceX. Estimates have pegged Shein's IPO valuation at around $90 billion, Bloomberg reported last year. AdvertisementTo gauge what happens to some Shein items once they're returned, BI reporters in the UK put two AirTag trackers on Shein garments and sent them back. Shein is more directly involved in production and focuses on clothes, but Temu's popularity "could affect the valuation," Swartz said. In a November statement following the news of Shein's IPO, chairman Mike Gallagher urged investors and banks underwriting the move to "carefully examine Shein's regulatory and compliance programs."
Persons: , Bytedance, Sky Xu, Yangtian Xu, Chris, Shein, confidentially, David Swartz, Swartz, Lululemon, JADE GAO, Stephanie Benedetto, Queen, Benedetto, they're, Shein's, Morningstar's Swartz, Temu, Mike Gallagher Organizations: Service, Elon, SpaceX, Business, Reuters, Authentic Brands, Wall Street, CNBC, Bloomberg, Morningstar, Zurich Insurance Group, Guardian, BI, Coventry Airport, SEC, Street, Financial Times, London Stock Exchange, Chinese Communist Party, Nike, Adidas Locations: China, , Singapore, Sequoia China, London , Hong Kong, York, London, Canary Wharf, Coventry, Walsall, Northern Ireland, England, Kent, Washington, Xinjiang, Dublin, Shein
The gloomy outlook comes from an annual survey by the World Economic Forum (WEF) of people paid to identify and manage global risks. According to the report published Wednesday, nearly two-thirds of respondents expect an “elevated chance of global catastrophes” in the next decade. Sam Yeh/AFP/Getty ImagesExtreme weather events were ranked the number two short-term risk, demonstrating heightened awareness about the environment and climate change in a year plagued by rising temperatures and rampant floods and wildfires. Cyber insecurity also made it into the top five short-term risks, for the first time in a decade. Lack of economic opportunity, persistently high inflation and an economic downturn were ranked sixth, seventh and ninth on the list of short-term risks respectively.
Persons: , Carolina Klint, Marsh McLennan, , Hou Yu, Sam Yeh, “ It’s, Saadia Zahidi, ” Zahidi, ” John Scott Organizations: London CNN, Humanity, World Economic, American Psychological, Marsh, CNN, ih, Getty, Zurich Insurance Group Locations: Davos, Switzerland, Israel, Carolina, Europe, Taoyuan, AFP
Extreme weather is a prime concern for business leaders and politicians. About two-thirds of 1,400 respondents are worried about extreme weather, per its Global Risks Report. Extreme weather and critical changes to Earth's systems are the greatest long-term concern for politicians and business leaders, according to the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report 2024. It gathered the views of some 1,400 global risks experts, policy-makers, and industry leaders surveyed in September 2023. Related storiesThe researchers found that misinformation and disinformation were the biggest short-term risks, while extreme weather was the greatest long-term concern.
Persons: Saadia Zahidi, John Scott of Organizations: Economic, Service, Economic Forum, John Scott of Zurich Insurance Locations: Davos, Switzerland
The World Economic Forum's "Global Risks Report 2024," released Wednesday, ranked AI-derived misinformation and disinformation — and its implications for societal polarization — ahead of climate change, war and economic weakness in its top 10 risks over the next two years. "How that is going to play out is going to be quite important for us to watch," she added. watch nowThe WEF report, which was also produced in collaboration with Zurich Insurance Group, surveyed over 1,400 global risk experts, policymakers and industry leaders in September 2023 about their biggest global concerns. Top 10 global risksThe most cited risks for the next two years were, in order: misinformation and disinformation, extreme weather events, societal polarization, cyber insecurity and interstate armed conflict. Also in the top 10 were lack of economic opportunity, inflation, involuntary migration, economic downturn and pollution.
Persons: Alfieri, Carolina Klint, Marsh McLennan, CNBC's Silvia Amaro, Saadia Zahidi Organizations: Zurich Insurance Group Locations: Carolina, Europe
Yet labour markets are softening, the euro zone faces recession and China's property sector is in crisis. Here's what some closely-watched market indicators say about global recession risks:1/ AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM? Britain's economy avoided the start of a recession in the third quarter but still failed to grow. Economists broadly expect the global economy to slow next year but avoid a recession. If supply shocks resulting from the Israel-Hamas war become severe enough to push Brent crude to $150, a level it has never breached, a "mild and fleeting" global recession could result, Oxford Economics reckons.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Guy Miller, COVID, Zurich Insurance's Miller, Torsten Slok, Austria's, David Katimbo, We've, Brent, Yoruk Bahceli, Dhara Ranasinghe, Naomi Rovnick, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Zurich Insurance, Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal Reserve, ECB, Apollo Global Management, P, Sweden's SBB, HK, Bank of England, Business insolvencies, EdenTree Investment Management, Oxford Economics reckons, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, China, Zurich, England, Wales, Europe, Israel
MSCI's world stock index (.MIWO00000PUS) is set to close the month up around 9%, its best performance since November 2020, when markets cheered the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines. Global bond prices have soared, with an ICE BofA index of global investment-grade bonds in major markets set to return 3.4% in November, the best month on record going back to 1997. Global growth stocks in high-tech sectors are up 11% (.dMIWO0000GNUS) while value stocks, which are mainly in cyclical industries and offer high dividends, have gained 6.5% (.dMIWO0000VNUS). And a cloudier outlook for stocks suggests a divergence could open up between again between stocks and bonds. The broader global index is set to return 1.6% for the year.
Persons: Joshua Roberts, That's, bode, Altaf Kassam, Wall, We've, Guy Miller, Joost Van Leenders, Van Lanschot Kempen, Van Leenders, Kassam, Naomi Rovnick, Yoruk Bahceli, Dhara Ranasinghe, Christina Fincher Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, State Street Global Advisors, Traders, Fed, Insurance Group, Equity, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, COVID, U.S
Donald Trump Jr. in court for his family's civil fraud trial in New York. AP Photo/Phelan M. EbenhackThe first defense expert witness: a Trump mega-donorThe third defense witness to take the stand, developer Steven Witkoff, was, like Donald Trump, Jr., hardly an objective source of testimony. But on Tuesday he became Trump's first expert witness, in the field of real estate valuation. His multi-billion-dollar brokerage firm, Lockton Companies, earned $1.2 million last year as Trump's insurance broker, he said. He said he didn't have a real estate license — he doesn't need one to be a broker, he explained.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Donald Trump , Jr, Junior, Donald Trump Jr, David Dee Delgado, Christopher Kise, Trump, Kise, Phelan M, Ebenhack, Steven Witkoff, Witkoff, Trump's, Eduardo Munoz Alvarez, Jason Flemmons, Flemmons, James, Flemmons flubbed, Steven Laposa, Laposa, LIV, Timothy A, Clary, Gary Giulietti, Giulietti Organizations: Trump, Service, New, AP, Republican, Woolworth, Supreme, Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC, Getty, Lockton Companies, Zurich Insurance Group Locations: New York, Manhattan, Trump, New Jersey
A new generation of mathematical modelers might be able to help defuse a looming insurance crisis. Floods, electrical storms and wildfires, together with raw-material inflation, are pushing up premiums for so-called catastrophe insurance. Some Americans are moving away from riskier places such as Florida, while others are foregoing cover. Insurers such as Allstate , State Farm and Farmers Insurance, owned by Zurich Insurance Group , are withdrawing from disaster-prone areas.
Organizations: Allstate, State Farm, Farmers Insurance, Zurich Insurance Group Locations: Florida
AdvertisementAdvertisementLosses from insurance fraud are nearly double what they were 30 years ago. Scott Clayton, the head of claims fraud at Zurich Insurance Group. AdvertisementAdvertisementOn the other hand, around 40% of fraud is premeditated, and these cases can cost insurance companies upwards of €3,000, or around $3,170, according to the study. But the Insurance Fraud Detection Market is expected to grow from $5 billion in 2023 to $17 billion in 2028. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn the past 10 years, various third-party developers like Friss, IBM, and Shift Technology have started tailoring machine-learning systems to insurance companies.
Persons: , they're, Alan Turing, It's, Scott Clayton, shallowfakes —, Clayton, I'm, we'll, Arnaud Grapinet, he's, Grapinet, it's, Rob Galbraith, Jennifer Lindberg, Rob Morton, Galbraith Organizations: Service, Coalition Against Insurance, Zurich Insurance, AXA Research Fund, Technology, IBM, Employees Locations: United States, Spain
What could break under higher-for-longer interest rates?
  + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Yet, the strain from interest rate hikes has just started to come through and with central banks signalling that rates will likely stay higher for longer, the notion of something "breaking" remains strong. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics1/ PROPERTY PAINNowhere is the impact of higher rates being felt more acutely than in real estate, still reeling from COVID-19. "We have many zombie companies in the United States and Europe from the low interest rates era, and I cannot imagine how they can survive now with high interest rates." Still, big question marks remain over their future, not least from a global property rout. Miller noted that European banks are also vulnerable given their bigger size relative to the economy that leaves them more exposed to risks from various pockets.
Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Heimstaden, Markus Allenspach, Julius Baer, Guy Miller, Miller Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, Reuters Graphics Reuters, SBB, China Evergrande, HK, Federal, European Central Bank, Zurich Insurance, The Bank of Japan, Capital, Thomson Locations: Washington, Sweden, Europe, Stockholm, Berlin, CHINA, China, United States, Big U.S
European value stocks are doing better than growth stocks right now, according to Citi analysts. Citi defined "quality" value stocks as those in the top fifth and fourth quintiles for three characteristics: value, low risk and quality. Citi said investors "have not been particularly risk-averse," as risky value stocks are up 8.6%, while quality value stocks are down 0.3% in the year to date. Nevertheless, the bank noted that investors appear to have been more cautious since the start of August, as quality value stocks are up 4.6%, while risky value stocks are down 0.6%. 'Risky value' stocks For this screen, Citi looked for stocks that scored in the seventh or above decile for value and those in the fifth or below decile for "value low risk" and quality.
Persons: TotalEnergies, Moller Maersk, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Citi, HSBC Holdings, Zurich Insurance Group, ABN AMRO, Imperial Brands, Nokia, BNP, BMW, Bayer, Life, WPP PLC Locations: European, China, Dutch, Danish
Now the manager of the Goldman Sachs' International Equity Income Fund (GSTKX) , as a young man Deladerriere was surrounded by farmers and government employees, not investors. Deladerriere sought out companies with good business fundamentals, saying many of the firms he invested in back then have survived and are "actually thriving." One was French energy technology provider Schneider Electric, still a holding in his Goldman fund. He landed a research internship at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, and is now a partner and head of international developed markets equity. Good times and bad In 2012, Deladerriere started managing Goldman International Equity Income, a $1.1 billion fund with a five-star rating from Morningstar.
Persons: Alexis Deladerriere, Goldman Sachs, Deladerriere, Goldman, that's, Morningstar Organizations: International Equity Income, Schneider Electric, Ecole Superieure de Commerce de Paris, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Goldman International Equity, Morningstar, Vinci, Schneider, Stock, Zurich Insurance Group, Singapore Locations: France, French, Europe, Australasia, London, New York, U.S, Swiss
Yet a sharp drawdown in the excess savings created by COVID-19 could be a curve ball that slams into bullish sentiment. U.S. excess savings have fallen to around $500 billion from around $2.1 trillion in August 2021, the San Francisco Federal Reserve estimates. In Europe, Deutsche Bank reckons excess savings in Sweden, struggling to contain a property slump, have dwindled. Reuters GraphicsRUNNING OUTDefinitions for excess savings differ, but economists generally agree that this means savings that went beyond trend levels during the pandemic. Cardano chief economist Shweta Singh said U.S. pandemic excess savings are likely to be depleted by year-end.
Persons: Rachel Adams, Janus Henderson, Oliver Blackbourn, Shweta Singh, Guy Miller, Jamie Dimon, Ben, Eren Osman, Arbuthnot Latham, Janus Henderson's Blackbourn, U.S . Russell, Russell, Goldman Sachs, Blackbourn, Zurich's Miller, Simon Bell, Guilluame Paillat, Paillat, Naomi Rovnick, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Oxford, REUTERS, San Francisco Federal, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Insurance Group, Ryanair, JPMorgan, Unilever, U.S ., London's, Bank of, Aviva, Thomson Locations: Britain, London, China, Europe, U.S, Sweden, United States, downturns, Australia
LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) - The spectre of rising corporate debt defaults exacerbating a global economic slowdown has for months been largely brushed aside by resilient credit markets. Now, long-feared corporate debt woes are starting to hit home, while more companies are being downgraded to a junk credit rating - facing higher borrowing costs as a result. Retailer Casino, with 6.4 billion euros ($7.19 billion) of net debt, is in court-backed talks with creditors; Britain's Thames Water is in the headlines with its 14 billion pound ($18.32 billion) debt pile. For FACTBOX: Corporate debt woes are on the rise, click here. Nonetheless, not all firms may be able to survive the challenges of vast debt, higher interest and business costs and declining profits.
Persons: Julius Baer's, Markus Allenspach, Guy Miller, Miller, it's, Aymen Mahmoud, McDermott Will, Emery, Elena Lieskovska, Chiara Elisei, Dhara, Christina Fincher Organizations: SBB, P Global, U.S, Reuters, ICE, Zurich Insurance, ABN AMRO, European Central Bank, London Finance, Bain Capital, Thomson Locations: Swedish, Spain, Europe
European stocks (.STOXX) slipped 0.6%, heading for their first daily loss in eight sessions, with German shares (.GDAXI) down the same amount. The MSCI world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS), which tracks shares in 47 countries, fell 0.2%. Earlier, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) dropped 0.8% after the China data. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) also fell 0.3% on profit-taking after climbing to three-decade highs. Brent crude futures fell 0.3% to $75.97 a barrel after climbing 2.1% overnight.
Persons: Michael Hewson, Guy Miller, Brent, Tom Wilson, Stella Qiu, Dhara, Sam Holmes, Helen Popper, Christina Fincher Organizations: Global, Federal, Independence, CMC Markets, Reuters, Zurich Insurance Group, U.S, Japan's Nikkei, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, China, U.S, Europe, United States, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Tokyo, Saudi Arabia, Russia, London, Sydney
Wall Street was set for losses, too, with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures down 0.2%-0.4%. The MSCI world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS), which tracks shares in 47 countries, fell 0.2%. The U.S. dollar drifted near the middle of its range of the past three weeks against major peers, with the dollar index down 0.1% to 102.99, after tracking between 103.75 and 102.75 since early June. Earlier, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) dropped 0.7% after the China data. Brent crude futures fell 0.2% to $76.05 a barrel after climbing 2.1% overnight.
Persons: Michael Hewson, Guy Miller, Brent, Tom Wilson, Stella Qiu, Dhara, Sam Holmes, Helen Popper Our Organizations: Nikkei, Global, Federal, Nasdaq, CMC Markets, Reuters, Zurich Insurance Group, U.S, Japan's Nikkei, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, U.S, United States, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, London, Sydney
[1/2] Uday Kotak, Managing Director of Kotak Mahindra Bank poses for a picture at the company's corporate office in Mumbai January 15, 2015. Kotak General Insurance, which is fully-owned by Indian banking giant Kotak Mahindra Bank (KTKM.NS), did not respond to Reuters queries. While the Kotak insurance unit's interest in selling a stake has been reported earlier, its talks with Zurich, the potential deal size and valuation are being reported for the first time. More than 30 companies operate in India's general insurance market, where annual premium collections grew 11% to reach $26.7 billion in 2021-22, helped by rising financial literacy and income levels, CareEdge Ratings said in a report. Already, foreign companies such as Germany's Allianz and South Africa's Lombard have general insurance partnerships with Indian banking or financial groups.
Persons: Uday Kotak, Kotak, South Africa's Lombard, Ergo, Sriram, Tom Sims, Victoria Farr, Aditya Kalra, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Mahindra Bank, REUTERS, Danish, Zurich Insurance, Kotak, Zurich eyeing, Insurance, Asia's, Germany's Allianz, South, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, Zurich, MUMBAI, South Africa's, Europe, China, Frankfurt
Factbox: What is embattled British business group the CBI?
  + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Below is some information about the CBI and its role:WHAT IS THE CBI? Founded in 1965, the CBI is Britain's top business lobby group. A not-for-profit organisation, the CBI says it represents 190,000 businesses employing nearly 7 million people, including many of Britain's biggest companies. In his speech, Sunak called the CBI "a valued institution in this country and a powerful voice for business". A spokesperson for NatWest said the bank had no confidence in the CBI's capacity to be a strong representative voice for British business at present.
[1/2] A Confederation of British Industry (CBI) logo is seen during their annual conference in London, Britain November 9, 2015. "While the CBI was not previously aware of the most serious allegations, it is vital that they are thoroughly investigated now and we are liaising closely with the police," CBI President Brian McBride said. Virgin Media O2 criticised how the CBI had dealt with the allegations. Aviva (AV.L) and two other insurers, Phoenix Group and Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN.S), also quit on Friday along with asset manager Schroders. Accountancy firm PWC suspended activity with the CBI, as has telecoms company BT Group, while bank Santander said it was reviewing its membership.
The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis (USCPF=ECI) and 5.6% year-over-year (USCPFY=ECI) in March. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 3.5 basis points to 4.043%. "We're just beginning to feel the pain of these much higher interest rates. The dollar fell after a strong U.S. jobs report for March showed a resilient labor market, adding to expectations of another Fed rate hike. The 10-year JGB yield fell to as low as 0.445%, its lowest since April 4, after hovering at 0.465% in the previous session.
World stocks cling to upbeat mood, dollar stalls
  + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
European stocks added 0.5% (.STOXX), U.S. equity futures pointed to a positive Wall Street open , and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei rallied over 1% (.N225). Markets price in a roughly 70% chance of a May hike, having last week priced such a move as a coin toss. Traders still price in rate cuts by year-end as the economic growth outlook weakens, exacerbated by banking turmoil. U.S. March inflation data on Wednesday could provide the next steer for markets on the rate outlook. U.S. Treasury yields edged down on Tuesday, however, , with rate sensitive two-year yields 4 bps lower at 3.96%.
Summary SME vulnerability to rate hikes gone under radarUS, European credit conditions tighteningUK SMEs especially vulnerable -analystsLONDON, March 30 (Reuters) - U.S. and European small and medium-sized (SME) firms may be next to feel the pain of rapid interest rate rises, with analysts and investors warily watching for the impact of tighter credit conditions exacerbated by recent banking turmoil. In the U.S. the average rate that small businesses pay on bank loans rose from around 5% to 7.6% in 2022, and is likely to hit about 9.5% by mid-year, Jefferies analysts estimate. British SMEs, hurt by weak growth, double digit inflation and rising Bank of England rates, are seen as particularly vulnerable. "The Government needs to demonstrate that it is on the side of small businesses who are feeling stressed and under huge margin pressure," McTague added. HARD TIMESMeanwhile the rate of small business loan approval at big U.S. banks meanwhile fell in February for nine straight months and business loan approvals at small banks has also fallen, said online financing platform for small businesses Biz2Credit.
Markets have ramped up bets on further rate increases after the ECB has already tightened monetary policy by 3 percentage points since July. ECB President Christine Lagarde reckons a 50 basis points (bps) rate hike "is very, very likely". "The ECB is prioritising getting policy rates as high as needed and nothing else is as important," Pictet Wealth Management's head of macroeconomic research Frederik Ducrozet, said. Signs of economic resilience suggest ECB growth forecasts, also out on Thursday, could be revised upwards for 2023. Falling energy prices and a stronger euro, up around 6% in trade-weighted terms from August lows, suggest headline inflation forecasts could be revised lower.
Summary U.S. bonds set for worst month since SeptWild swings at start of year may continueLONDON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - March madness? After a euphoric January was followed by a somber February, with bonds and equities selling off as strong data renewed rate-hike bets, more wild swings could be next for world markets. February fallsData on Friday showing a key inflation U.S. gauge accelerated last month stoked rate hike bets. The ECB lifted its key rate by 300 basis points since last July to 2.5%. If upcoming data weakens, markets could resume their bullishness, Yardeni Research said.
End of easy-cash era is going to hurt
  + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
LONDON, Feb 1 (Reuters) - The end of the easy-cash era is over and its impact yet to be felt on world markets, hopeful that the pain of aggressive rate hikes and high inflation has passed. Reuters Graphics3/ GOING PRIVATEPrivate debt markets have ballooned since the financial crisis to $1.4 trillion from $250 billion in 2010. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics4/CRYPTO WINTERRising borrowing costs roiled crypto markets in 2022. Reuters Graphics5/FOR SALEReal estate markets, first responders to rate hikes, started cracking last year and 2023 will be tough with U.S. house prices expected to drop 12%. How the sector services its debt is in focus and officials warn European banks risk significant profit hits from sliding house prices.
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