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The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.4 in November from 49.5 in October, staying below the 50-point level demarcating contraction from expansion, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday. The new orders sub index contracted for a second consecutive month, while the new export orders component extended its decline for a ninth month. "Today's PMI reading will further raise expectations towards policy support," said Zhou Hao, economist at Guotai Junan International. "Fiscal policy will be under the spotlight and take centre stage over the coming year and will be closely monitored by the market." Factory PMI has contracted for seven out of the past eight months - rising above the 50-point mark only in September.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Zhou Hao, Joe Cash, Kim Coghill, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: cnsphoto, REUTERS, National Bureau, Statistics, Standard Chartered, PMI, Guotai, Thomson Locations: Zunyi, Guizhou province, China, BEIJING

☆ China's imports unexpectedly grow in Oct, exports extend declines
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Exports shrank 6.4% from a year earlier in October, customs data showed on Tuesday, faster than a 6.2% decline in September and worse than a 3.3% fall expected in a Reuters poll. The bad exports data may hit market confidence as we had expected the supply chain of exports to recover," said Zhou Hao, economist at Guotai Junan International. "The significant improvement in imports may come from rising domestic demand, in particular a demand to replenish stocks." However, in a sign trade is finding some footing, South Korean exports to China fell at their slowest pace in 13 months in October. China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in October, data showed last week, complicating policymakers' efforts to revive growth.

Persons: Zhou Hao, Joe Cash, Ellen Zhang, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Imports, Guotai, Analysts, Thomson Locations: Qingdao, Shandong province, China, Rights BEIJING, North American, Korean

REUTERS/Jason Lee/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummaryCompanies Property sales, investment fall at double-digit paceProperty slowdown remains drag on economic growthBEIJING, Oct 18 (Reuters) - China's property sales and investment posted double-digit declines as efforts to support big cities failed to bolster confidence in an industry struggling to emerged from crisis, although the pace of contraction slowed. Property investment fell 18.7% from a year earlier after a 19.1% drop in August, according to Reuters calculations. "S&P Global Ratings expects that the low number of construction starts, an inventory overhang in lower-tier cities, and ever-tightening escrow restrictions will keep property sales depressed," S&P's credit analysts said in a note on Monday. Property investment in the first nine months of 2023 fell by 9.1% from a year earlier, after slumping 8.8% in January-August, according to NBS data. Funds raised by China's property developers were down 13.5% year-on-year after a 12.9% slide in January-August.

Persons: Jason Lee, Zhou Hao, Liangping Gao, Ella Cao, Ryan Woo, Christian Schmollinger, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, National Bureau of Statistics, Country Garden Holdings, HK, Monetary Fund, Property, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING

An employee works on the production line at Jingjin filter press factory in Dezhou, Shandong province, China August 25, 2022. China's non-manufacturing PMI, which incorporates sub-indexes for service sector activity and construction, also rose, coming in at 51.7 versus August's 51.0. PROPERTY RISKSMore stable economic indicators will be welcomed by policymakers as they continue to grapple with a property sector debt crisis that has rattled global markets. Analysts say more policy support will be needed to ensure China's economy can hit the government's growth target of about 5% this year. "China's economy stabilised partly driven by the loosening of property sector policies," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management.

Persons: Siyi Liu, Zhou Hao, Zhiwei Zhang, Ryan Woo, Tina Qiao, Joe Cash, Michael Perry, William Mallard Organizations: REUTERS, National Bureau of Statistics, PMI, Guotai, China Evergrande, HK, Asian Development Bank, Analysts, Thomson Locations: Dezhou, Shandong province, China, BEIJING

But analysts say more policy support is needed to shore up consumer demand in the world's second-biggest economy, with a labour market recovery slowing and household income expectations uncertain. "In general the inflation (rate) still points to weak demand and requires more policy support for the foreseeable future." DEFLATION PRESSURESCompared with the previous month, CPI rose 0.3%, picking up from 0.2% in July, the statistics bureau said. Pork prices rose 11.4% month-on-month, versus no change in July, due to the impact of extreme weather in some areas. Factory-gate deflation moderated in August due to improving demand for some industrial products and rising international crude oil prices, the statistics bureau said.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, Zhou Hao, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang Lasalle, Premier Li Qiang, Kevin Yao, Joe Cash, Sam Holmes, William Mallard Organizations: REUTERS, National Bureau of Statistics, Reuters, Guotai, ANZ, Jones, Premier, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING, Ukraine

☆ China's trade slump narrows as stabilisation signs emerge
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Joe Cash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

“The trade data is marginally better, but I don’t think we should be reading too much into that: trade is still contracting,” said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC. “There is a bit of a sign here of stabilisation, but I think there’s still a long way to go,” he added. “Looking ahead, whether China’s trade growth has already hit the bottom will hinge on several factors, the most important of which is obviously domestic demand.”Governments around the world are nervous about China’s economic slowdown with many exporting nations highly dependent on the country’s market for growth. However, trade with Japan dropped sharply, with outbound shipments from China to its neighbour down 20% in August year-on-year, while imports worsened by 17%. China posted a trade surplus of $68.36 billion in August, compared with a forecast $73.80 billion and a July figure of $80.6 billion.

Persons: Aly, ”, Frederic Neumann, Zhou Hao, it’s, Nie Wen Organizations: REUTERS, HSBC, Guotai, “, Australian, Hwabao Trust Locations: BEIJING, Shanghai, China, Asia, Beijing, United States, Southeast Asia, Australia, Japan, Tokyo, Brazil

An unprecedented liquidity crisis in China's vast property sector is a major risk to a sputtering post-COVID recovery in the world's second-biggest economy, which has rattled global markets. Country Garden debt payment extension buys time for China's largest private developer to avoid default, and is good news for financial markets and the Chinese government, which has announced a raft of measures to support the property sector. In Friday's vote, 56.08% of participating Country Garden onshore creditors approved the extension, 43.64% opposed and 0.28% abstained, an official document shared with bondholders showed. Country Garden did not immediately respond to a request for comment. A default by Country Garden would have exacerbated the real estate crisis and put more strain on its onshore lenders.

Persons: spiralled, Junan, Zhou Hao, Moody's, Xie Yu, Kevin Huang, Li Gu, Sumeet Chatterjee, William Mallard Organizations: Reuters, HK, China Evergrande, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Beijing, China, Caa1, Hong Kong, Shanghai

☆ Premier urges Chinese tech giants to support economy as crackdown ends
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

After listening to suggestions from firms that also included PDD Holdings' (PDD.O) Pinduoduo and JD.com (9618.HK), Li told them authorities would seek to make regulation of platform firms more transparent and predictable. Shares in some U.S.-listed Chinese firms rallied in premarket trade, with Alibaba Group Holding gaining 2.2% and PDD Holdings rising 2.7%. Still Zhou Hao, economist at Guotai Junan International, said Wednesday's meeting was a "positive signal". "A sound development of the platform economy is very significant to investors too. Prudent development of platform firms is important to investors' long-term valuation," he added.

Persons: Li Qiang, Li, ByteDance's Douyin, Zhou Hao, Ella Cao, Brenda Goh, Ellen Zhang, Ethan Wang, Ryan Woo, Barbara Lewis, Mark Potter Organizations: Wednesday, HK, PDD Holdings, Alibaba, Ant, Reuters, Guotai, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, premarket

☆ China's factory activity swings to surprise growth in May - Caixin PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 50.9 in May from 49.5 in April, above the 50-point index mark that separates growth from contraction. The reading surpassed expectations of 49.5 in a Reuters poll, a stark contrast to a deeper contraction activity seen in the official PMI released on Wednesday. The manufacturing subindexes showed factory output rose at the fastest clip in 11 months while new orders including new exports expanded in May. However, business confidence for the coming 12 months fell to a seven-month low amid concerns over global economic prospects. "Current economic growth lacks internal drive and market entities lack sufficient confidence, highlighting the importance of expanding and restoring demand, " said Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group.

Persons: Zhou Hao, Hang, Wang Zhe, 25bps, Liangping Gao, Joe Cash, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: P Global, PMI, Guotai, CSI, Caixin Insight, ANZ, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China

☆ China's skidding factory sector taps brakes on economic recovery
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Ellen Zhang | Ryan Woo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING (Reuters) -China’s factory activity unexpectedly contracted in April as orders fell and poor domestic demand dragged on the sprawling manufacturing sector, a private survey showed on Thursday, imperilling the broader economic outlook for the second quarter. China Daily via REUTERSThe Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in April from 50.0 in March. The latest PMIs may lower expectations for the economy in the second quarter, said Zhou Hao, economist at Guotai Junan International. “But to what extent the economic recovery momentum will weaken, the market is not sure,” Zhou said. “The manufacturing sector will be under pressure in the second quarter, and won’t get any relief at least until June.”

☆ China's consumer, factory prices skid as demand falters
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Tingshu WangIn contrast to surging prices globally, China’s retail and producer inflation has remained anaemic as the consumer and industrial sectors struggle to recover from their pandemic hit. Analysts now think consumer inflation could fall short of Beijing’s official targets this year. On a month-on-month basis, food prices fell 1.4%. GRAPHIC: China's inflation skids, hereFALLING SHORTThe government has set a target for average consumer prices in 2023 to be about 3%. “We think consumer price inflation will rebound in the coming months as the labour market tightens again and will peak at 2.3% in early 2024,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.

☆ China's consumer inflation hits 18-month low amid uneven recovery
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

China's consumer inflation in March hit the slowest pace since September 2021, weighed by sluggish food prices, official data showed on Tuesday, suggesting demand weakness persists amid an uneven economic recovery. The consumer price index (CPI) for the month rose 0.7% year-on-year, compared with the 1.0% gain seen in February, said the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Food price inflation slowed to 2.4% year-on-year from 2.6% in the previous month. On a month-on-month basis, food prices fell 1.4%. That pushed the CPI down 0.3% from a month earlier after a 0.5% fall in February, dashing expectations of no change.

Chinese leaders have pledged to step up support for the world's second-largest economy, which is gradually rebounding from a pandemic-induced slump after virus curbs were abruptly lifted in December. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said it would cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for all banks, except those that have implemented a 5% reserve ratio, by 25 basis points (bps), effective March 27. The move, which came earlier than financial markets had anticipated, comes after data showed a gradual but uneven recovery in the world's second-largest economy in the first months, and stronger-than-expected credit expansion in February. The central bank has promised to make its policy "precise and forceful" this year to support the economy, keeping liquidity reasonably ample and lowering funding costs for businesses. The weighted average RRR for financial institutions stood at around 7.6% after the cut, the central bank said.

☆ China's economic activity uneven in Jan-Feb after COVID reopening
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Ellen Zhang | Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Tingshu WangProperty investment in the January-February period fell again as home buyers and developers remained cautious despite a slew of supportive government policies. The reading accelerated from a 1.3% annual rise in December. The mixed data portrayed an uneven recovery in economic activity following China’s abrupt abandonment late last year of its three-year-long campaign to control COVID-19. Within January-February fixed-asset investment, infrastructure investment surged 9.0% from a year before. China has set a modest annual growth target of around 5% this year after significantly missing its target for 2022 and recording one of its worst showings in nearly half a century.

New bank lending fell much less than expected in February from a record high the previous month. Chinese banks extended 1.81 trillion yuan ($260 billion) in new loans last month. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted they would fall to 1.50 trillion yuan from 4.9 trillion yuan in January, and compared with 1.23 trillion yuan a year earlier. Household loans, mostly mortgages, fell to 208.1 billion yuan in February from 257.2 billion yuan in January, while corporate loans fell to 1.61 trillion yuan from 4.68 trillion yuan. TSF for the month of February fell to 3.16 trillion yuan from 5.98 trillion yuan in January, but was still well ahead of expectations for 2.20 trillion yuan.

☆ China's new home prices rise in Jan for first time in a year
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

More major cities among the 70 surveyed by NBS reported increases in new home prices last month, with prices rising in 36 cities, up from 15 in December. Analysts see rising home prices as a positive sign, but believe more stimulative policies are needed to lift currently dismal demand and spark a longer-term recovery. The property sector, once an engine of the world's second-largest economy, has been hobbled by fragile demand and developers' mounting debt defaults. Prices were down 1.5% year-on-year in January, with the rate of decline unchanged from December. "The roots of the crisis in China's property sector lie in the worsening long-term outlook for demand," said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics.

☆ China's factory prices fall as manufacturing struggles to recover
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Joe Cash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Employees work at the production line of aluminium rolls at a factory in Zouping, Shandong province, China November 23, 2019. The drop in factory gate prices was unexpected because China's economic activity returned to growth in January. The official purchasing managers' index (PMI), which measures manufacturing activity, crossing the 50-point threshold for the first time since September. Falling input prices, including chemicals, as well as lower crude oil and domestic coal prices contributed to the greater-than-expected decline. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices ticked up to 1.2% last month from an annual gain of 0.7% in December.

☆ Instant View: China's economy slows sharply in Q4, 2022 growth one of the worst on record
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

As a result, the Chinese economic growth rate will be below the Chinese government's target of 5% plus." This could weigh on their potential economic growth in the mid-and long-term, and we really need to be paying attention to that." MARCO SUN, CHIEF FINANCIAL MARKET ANALYST, MUFG BANK (CHINA), SHANGHAI"China's Q4 and full-year 2022 GDP growth rates came in higher than expected. Economic growth will have to depend more on productivity growth, which is driven by government policies." IRIS PANG, GREATER CHINA ECONOMIST, ING, HONG KONG"The biggest surprise is the retail sales number, which is really a big beat...

Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted new yuan loans would drop to 1.1 trillion yuan in December from 1.21 trillion yuan the previous month. New bank lending hit a record 21.31 trillion yuan in 2022, up from 19.95 trillion yuan in 2021 - the previous record. Broad M2 money supply grew by 11.8% in December from a year earlier, central bank data showed, below estimates of 12.2% forecast in the Reuters poll. Outstanding yuan loans grew by 11.1% in December from a year earlier compared with 11.0% growth in November. In December, TSF fell to 1.31 trillion yuan from 1.99 trillion yuan in November.

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