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☆ Dollar set for best quarter in a year; yen-watch rumbles on
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. "We've had resilience in the U.S. economy, in the jobs market, inflation ticking higher and, obviously, the rise in oil prices. "We're not really expecting to see any rate cuts for quite some time, well toward the back end of 2024. Markets are looking ahead to the next data points, starting with key U.S. personal consumption data due later on Friday. The yen last traded at 149.125 to the dollar, which eased 0.13% on the day.

Persons: Florence Lo, Fiona Cincotta, We're, Tony Sycamore, we've, Sycamore, Thomas Barkin, Yasunari Ueno, Brigid Riley, Gerry Doyle, Neil Fullick, Kevin Liffey Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Treasury, City Index, Federal Reserve, IG, Richmond Fed, Mizuho Securities, Sterling, National Statistics, COVID, Thomson Locations: U.S, City, Tokyo

☆ Dollar off 10-month high, yen still under intervention watch
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar held off a 10-month high on Friday as markets headed into the end of the quarter, giving the yen slightly more breathing room at the end of the week amid intervention concerns. The yen remains in focus as it trades near the 150 level, which is viewed as potentially spurring intervention from Japanese authorities. Against the dollar, the Japanese currency last traded at 149.34 yen . Elsewhere, the euro stood at $1.05625, down 0.04% so far in Asia after climbing off this week's multi-month low of $1.0488. Investors will be looking ahead to Friday's CPI data out of the euro zone for clues into the state of the bloc's economy.

Persons: Tony Sycamore, we've, Sycamore, Thomas Barkin, Yasunari Ueno Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, IG, Richmond Fed, Mizuho Securities Locations: U.S, Asia

With inflation still exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target, the data will keep alive market expectations of a near-term tweak to its bond yield control policy, analysts say. The core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes oil products, rose 3.1% in February from a year earlier, government data showed, matching a median market forecast and slowing sharply from a 41-year high of 4.2% seen in January. "The new BOJ leadership will scrutinise Japan's price trend, as well as U.S. and European developments, in deciding its policy move," he said. But some BOJ policymakers have flagged the chance inflation could exceed initial expectations, as price hikes and wage gains show sign of broadening. Reporting by Takahiko Wada and Leika Kihara; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

If inflation stays around 2% and Japan sees significant wage hikes, the BOJ could normalise monetary policy. "Supply shock is behind the recent pick-up in inflation," said Yasunari Ueno, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities. Dai-ichi Life's Shinke expects core consumer inflation to accelerate further in January, before slowing due to the effect of government subsidies aimed at curbing utility bills. The base effect of last year's sharp rise in consumer prices will also slow the pace of increase in inflation later this year, analysts say. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, whose term will end in April, has stressed the need to keep monetary policy ultra-loose until wages rise more, changing the recent cost-push inflation into inflation driven by robust domestic demand.

☆ Analysis: Bank of Japan gives an inch, investors ready to claim a mile
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But rather than providing breathing room, investors say it is likely to encourage more of the sort of pressure that has bent the bond market out of shape. "Fifty basis points becomes the new 25 basis points. When trading resumed in Japan, 10-year JGB yields shot towards their new ceiling and futures fell so fast it triggered a circuit breaker suspending trade. By the end of the session, 10-year bond yields sat 14.5 basis points higher at 0.395%, the sharpest one-day rise for Japanese 10-year yields in more than 14 years. Mandatory credit Kyodo/via REUTERSThose swaps - another market measure of interest rate expectations - tracked bond yields until early this year.

Currency intervention is costly and could fail to influence the yen's value in the huge global foreign exchange market. Analysts say Japan may face difficulty winning backing for intervention unless volatility becomes highly excessive. Investors see solo action by Japan being far less effective than concerted intervention. Last month, Japanese authorities sold dollars and bought yen in a market intervention for the first time since 1998, spending 2.8 trillion yen ($19.2 billion) to slow a rapid slide in the yen that was considered a threat to the economy. read moreAs for dollar-buying, yen-selling intervention, Japan has stayed out of the market since 2011 when the devastating earthquake and tsunami triggered the worst nuclear disaster in Fukushima since Chernobyl.

☆ Bank of Japan keeps ultra-low rates, dovish policy guidance
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +11 min

Sept 22 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates and dovish policy guidance on Thursday, reassuring markets that it will continue to swim against a global tide of central banks tightening monetary policy to combat soaring inflation. "However, we believe that the BOJ will never allocate monetary policy for the FX rate adjustment and will stick to the YCC policy. "The most important thing is how the foreign-exchange rate reacts to that contrast in monetary policy between the U.S. and Japan. It also leaves the impression there will be no change in monetary policy during Kuroda's remaining term." He has said lesser about any merit of the weak yen recently out of consideration towards public sentiment against rising costs of living."

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