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☆ Thailand’s political drama raises the stakes
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, July 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Investors in Thailand are long used to twists and turns in the country’s politics but a court’s move on Wednesday to suspend the leader of the election-winning Move Forward Party as a lawmaker has raised the stakes. Pita Limjaroenrat's supporters are protesting as it’s now unlikely that the liberal and would-be aggressive reformer of the underperforming $500 billion economy will become the prime minister. It’s not a good outcome, however. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Pita Limjaroenrat's, Pita, It’s, It's, whir, Xavier Niel’s, Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Investors, Party, SETI, Gulf Energy, Asian Development Bank, Twitter, Xavier Niel’s GAM, Commonwealth Games, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Thailand, Asia

☆ Ambani’s finance unit gets credit before it’s due
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, July 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Mukesh Ambani’s capacity to disrupt India’s $2 trillion small loans market is fully priced in. It’s a big endorsement, considering the lending company starts with a tiny $244 million loan portfolio as of March 2022. Ambani will have his task cut out to deliver on expectations, despite a reputation for upending industries from telecoms to retail. The $155 billion HDFC Bank (HDBK.NS), freshly merged with its mortgage financier parent, will chase the latter’s customers with renewed vigour. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Mukesh, Ambani, It’s, Jio, Shritama Bose, whir, Xavier Niel’s, Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finance, HDFC Bank, Twitter, Xavier Niel’s GAM, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI

☆ Netflix’s cash gun starts to whir
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, July 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Netflix (NFLX.O) is putting out some programming worthy of more eyeballs. But its forecast on free cash flow – once a horror flick– shows that the business is only getting stronger. The revenue outlook for the third quarter of $8.5 billion is below analysts’ estimates of $8.7 billion, according to Refinitiv. Netflix raised its outlook for free cash flow this year to at least $5 billion from approximately $3.5 billion. At a time when high interest rates make greenbacks more expensive, and competitors Walt Disney (DIS.N) and Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.O) are squirming, Netflix’s cash story is one to watch.

Persons: Reed Hastings, Walt Disney, Jennifer Saba, Gucci, Xavier Niel’s, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: YORK, Reuters, Netflix, Hollywood, Warner Bros Discovery, Twitter, Xavier Niel’s GAM, Commonwealth Games, Thomson

☆ Next Gucci CEO may have toughest job in luxury
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, July 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Gucci is getting a new look. Gucci took a harder hit during the pandemic than some mega-brand rivals, then struggled to bounce back. That’s way below the 10% and 15% rise brokers are pencilling in for Louis Vuitton and Christian Dior (DIOR.PA) respectively. All of that makes Gucci CEO job one of the most interesting in the luxury sector – but also possibly the toughest. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Gucci, Marco Bizzarri, Jean, François, Kering’s, Bizzarri, Roberto Eggs, Louis Vuitton, Christian Dior, Karen Kwok, Xavier Niel’s, Liam Proud, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, Tuesday, Gucci, JPMorgan, Revenue, Alpha, Louis, Hermès, Barclays, Bain & Company, Twitter, Xavier Niel’s GAM, Commonwealth Games, Thomson Locations: Milan, Italian, Kering’s Paris, China, People’s Republic

☆ Xavier Niel’s GAM raid looks less quixotic
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NewGAMe, whose backers include telecoms mogul Xavier Niel and Swiss wealth manager Bruellan, launched a tender offer for just under 18% of GAM’s shares. Liontrust’s offer looked like the least bad option for GAM, which is losing money as its assets have more than halved since 2018 to 68 billion Swiss francs. And at least one other investor, with 6.5%, has said it won’t accept Liontrust’s offer. That means Liontrust will probably struggle to get to the two-thirds vote it would need to take over GAM. But GAM also has over 2 billion Swiss francs of tax losses to carry forward, lowering any future tax burden.

Persons: Xavier Niel, Bruellan, NewGAMe, Neil Unmack, Aimee Donnellan, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, GAM, Liontrust Asset Management, Twitter, Commonwealth Games, Cathay, Thomson Locations: Swiss

☆ Meme investors could spoil AMC’s next act
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

AMC is already fighting another lawsuit over its attempt to convert preferred stock into common shares, a novel scheme to avoid getting investors’ approval for share sales. It fits with other forays since AMC became a retail-favorite meme stock – like buying into a gold miner – that seem to disregard conventional governance niceties. Attracting a rush of retail traders means there are plenty of investors to call foul. If their push against the preferred stock gambit succeeds, AMC could struggle to raise new funds, which bodes poorly for repaying its $5 billion in debt. It turns out that, for a meme stock’s final act, the audience starts throwing tomatoes.

Persons: Adam Aron, Kevin Barnes, Barnes ’, Anita Ramaswamy, Xavier Niel’s, Jonathan Guilford, Sharon Lam Organizations: YORK, Reuters, AMC, Twitter, Xavier Niel’s GAM, Commonwealth Games, Thomson

☆ Novartis buyback offers partial cure for M&A risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, July 18 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Novartis’s (NOVN.S) bumper buyback will offer a little relief to investors. Many had been waiting to see what the $225 billion Swiss pharma giant would do with an extra $20 billion burning a hole in its pocket after Roche(ROG.S) bought back its stake in 2021. It needs new drugs to replenish its pipeline and boost an ailing share price, which has still not recovered since the pandemic. But on Tuesday, CEO Vasant Narasimhan said he will launch a $15 billion buyback programme. The Swiss drugmaker’s $15.4 billion of net debt is less than 1 times its forecast 2023 EBITDA, according to Refinitiv.

Persons: Roche, Vasant Narasimhan, can’t, Aimee Donnellan, Xavier Niel’s, Neil Unmack, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, Swiss pharma, Alcon, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Novartis, Twitter, Xavier Niel’s GAM, Commonwealth Games, Thomson Locations: Swiss

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