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☆ A bearish bet on homebuilders that profits if the consumer starts to weaken
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( Tony Zhang | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Recent weakness in the homebuilders, which are dependent on the consumer, suggests that they may be heading in the direction of the discretionary sector. This suggests that XHB is likely to revisit the bottom of the trading range and potentially break below it. This weakness suggests that it will revisit the $140 support level and potentially break lower, especially as momentum has recently turned negative. So I'm going to use the June 28 weekly expiration and buy the $145/$135 put vertical at a $3.82 debit. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: XHB, DHI Organizations: DR Horton

☆ This winning sector could see even more upside once the Fed starts cutting rates, according to State Street
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-29 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Homebuilding stocks have reached new highs this year, and State Street's Matthew Bartolini sees more upside in store when the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates. "The thesis just comes down to economic resilience that is fueled by a strong labor market and a healthy consumer," said the managing director and head of SPDR Americas research. XHB YTD mountain Homebuilding ETF has surged more than 15% this year. The SPDR S & P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) has rallied nearly 17% year to date and about 70% over the past year. Homebuilding stocks have also benefited from a resilient economy that is led by a healthy labor market, and they stand to gain even more in a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle.

Persons: Matthew Bartolini, Bartolini Organizations: State, Federal Reserve, SPDR, Sonoma, Products, Carlisle Companies, Builders, Fed Locations: SPDR Americas, Williams

☆ Bank of America unveils its top 10 trades for 2024, and 6 signs that would confirm a true bull market has arrived
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Mark Reeth | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Here are the indicators he's watching in 2024, and the trades investors should make now so that when the bull market finally arrives, they will be well-positioned to profit. Bank of America, alongside BMO, believes that the S&P 500 could beat its all-time high and soar over 5,000 next year. But in the back half of 2024, Hartnett believes the "3Cs" and the "3Ps" will combine to kick off a bull market in the "3Bs": bonds, bullion, and breadth. "Bonds can easily deliver equity-like returns in 2024," Hartnett wrote, particularly if "a weaker US economy & Fed cuts delivers cyclical decline in bond yields & US dollar (+ve gold)." Hartnett wrote that any panic policy moves could be a "catalyst for outperformance of leverage over quality, small over large, value over growth, international over US."

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, there's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Business, America's, BMO, SOX Locations: XBD, Japan, China

☆ The CIO of a hedge fund says he's betting home prices are going to drop at least 15-20% as consumers start to weaken and 'smart money' gets out of the market
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Daniel Bustamante, the hedge-fund CIO who won big in his short bet against shares of Carvana last year, is now betting millions of dollars that the housing market will slow significantly. Bustamante's call for home prices is an outlier in terms of where most Wall Street economists see the housing market headed. ATTOMAnother sign that things may go sour in the housing market is that institutional investors, or "smart money", has increasingly stopped buying residential properties, he said. RedfinAgain, Bustamante sees significant downside to home prices ahead. Recession warnings on Wall Street have become quieter in recent months as jobs and consumer spending data have held up.

Persons: Daniel Bustamante, DR, they'll, Bustamante, Bustamante anecdotally, ATTOM Organizations: Bustamante & Co, KB, Federal, National Locations: Carvana, Maricopa County , Arizona

☆ Final Trades: Alibaba, XHB and IBM
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFinal Trades: Alibaba, XHB and IBMThe final trades of the day with the Fast Money traders.

Organizations: IBM, Fast Money

☆ Top investors say these stock sectors are 'super cheap' and Warren Buffett likes them both
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

I mean they're always kind of cheap, but they're really cheap," Link said. Housing stocks have risen sharply, with the SPDR S & P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) up about 23% over the past year. Both investors agreed that energy stocks could see a similar rally to housing in the years ahead. "I believe what we are seeing with homebuilders is going to happen with energy stocks in two to three years. In addition to energy stocks being cheap, they could also see fundamentals improvement if oil prices continue to rise, Link said.

Persons: Fundstrat, Tom Lee, Stephanie Link, Lee, Warren, Link Organizations: CNBC, Hightower Advisors, Berkshire, Occidental Petroleum, Chevron, Diamondback Energy, Exxon, Devon Energy Locations: Horton, Chevron, homebuilder

☆ Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway makes interesting bet on these homebuilders
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought shares of a few homebuilders in the last quarter, a new regulatory filing revealed. Horton shares, $70 million worth of NVR shares as well as $17.2 million worth of Lennar in the second quarter, the filing showed. These stakes are relatively small for Berkshire, whose equity portfolio is worth nearly $350 billion. Top holdings Berkshire shares just hit a record high last week on the back of strong second-quarter results. Also during the second quarter, Berkshire added to its relatively new stake in Capital One Financial , bringing it to nearly $1.4 billion.

Persons: Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, Horton, Todd Combs, Ted Weschler, Benjamin Moore Organizations: Berkshire, Clayton Homes, Apple, American Express, Bank of America, Capital, General Motors, Chevrolet, GMC Locations: Omaha, Berkshire, McLean , Virginia

☆ Investors should avoid this stock that just hit an all-time high, Josh Brown says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A red-hot homebuilder stock just flashed a warning sign for investors, according to Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO Josh Brown. Horton blew away expectations for its fiscal third quarter Thursday morning, reporting $3.90 in earnings per share on $9.73 billion of revenue. The stock rose sharply at the open and set a new all-time high at $132.30, but then quickly reversed course and fell into the red for the day. Horton stock reversed course during Thursday's session. Brown said the reversal appears to be a sign D.R.

Persons: Josh Brown, D.R, Horton, Refinitiv, Brown, you've Organizations: Ritholtz Wealth Locations: Horton

☆ Homebuilder ETFs could get another boost if the Fed stops after one more rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Mortgage rates are tied indirectly to the Fed through the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, and could still move around while the central bank is paused. The ETFs that track the industry have already outperformed this year, rebounding from dramatic declines in 2022. The rapid Fed rate hikes last year appeared to spook consumers, who saw their future monthly payments climb sharply just while they were in the midst of searching for new homes. ITB YTD mountain Homebuilder ETFs like the ITB have outperformed in 2023. And a relatively stable interest rate outlook should make it easier for the homebuilders to hit those raised estimates, according to their own executives.

☆ Here are 6 bullish surprises that could power the stock market through the rest of this year, according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

There are six potential bull market surprises that could drive stocks higher, according to Bank of America. The bank highlighted the deflationary impact of ChatGPT and a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine war. "Bearish sentiment + $5 trillion of cash [is] still the 'best friends forever' for risk assets, especially stocks," Hartnett said. These are the six bullish surprises that could fuel more upside in the stock market this year, according to BofA. If any of the surprises play out, it could help the economy avoid a recession or see a soft landing rather than a hard landing, according to Hartnett, ultimately boosting the stock market higher.

☆ An earnings recession plagues investors' minds as reporting season approaches
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

There may not be a recession yet, but there is certainly an earnings recession. What Treasury yields are saying Treasury yields resumed falling last week in response to the weaker data. Earnings season Speaking of earnings, first quarter earnings season start this week, with earnings for the S & P 500 expected to decline 5.2%, according to Refinitiv. That's an earnings recession. You have to go back to Q1-Q3 of 2020 to see three consecutive quarters of earnings decline.

☆ Buy these ETFs if you believe the Fed will pivot to a slower tightening pace
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

That means that market rates could fall, even if the Fed continues to hike for the next few months. Bond yields move opposite of price, so the ETFs should go up in value. There are several large ETFs on the market focused on Treasurys, including the iShares' 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) and 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) . Similarly, Vanguard offers the Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) , which has a fee of just 0.04%. Corporate bonds carry more risk than Treasurys, but should rally if Treasury yields fall.

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