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The so-called core PPI increased 2.8% on a year-on-year basis in September after climbing 2.9% in August. Wholesale goods prices increased 0.9%, with a 3.3% rise in the cost of energy products accounting for nearly three-quarters of the increase. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, core goods prices edged up 0.1% for the second straight month. This mostly reflected the normalization of supply chains, whose disruption fueled goods inflation in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Though core inflation is cooling, higher gasoline and food prices could hamper progress by raising the cost of other goods as well as causing consumers to expect inflation to rise.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Christopher Rupkey, Will Compernolle, Alex McGrath, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Reuters, PPI, Reuters Graphics, Trade, Fed, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, WASHINGTON, New York, East, Greenville , South Carolina
The U.S. central bank held interest rates steady, as was widely expected, and said that its benchmark overnight interest rate may still be lifted one more time this year to a peak 5.50%-5.75% range. He added that "we want to see convincing evidence really, that we have reached the appropriate level" of interest rates to return inflation to the Fed's 2% target. Benchmark 10-year note yields hit 4.490%, the highest since November 2007. Interest rate sensitive two-year yields reached 5.202%, the highest since July 2006. The U.S. Treasury Department will sell $15 billion in 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) on Thursday.
Persons: Murad Sezer, Will Compernolle, Compernolle, Jerome Powell, Karen Brettell, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, UAW, U.S . Treasury Department, Securities, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York
Some said the downgrade to June's data meant the rise in the PPI last month was in line with expectations. In the 12 months through July, the PPI increased 0.8% after gaining 0.2% in June, boosted by a lower base of comparison last year. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core goods prices were unchanged last month after falling 0.2% in June. In the 12 months through July, the so-called core PPI increased 2.7%, matching June's rise. As with all the July inflation data, the pick-up in the annual core PCE rate is due to unfavorable base effects.
Persons: Bill Adams, Will Compernolle, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: PPI, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Consumers, University of, CPI, Fed, Thomson Locations: August WASHINGTON, Dallas, U.S, New York, disinflation
An increase in prices at the pump late in the month will likely be reflected in the August inflation report. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI would rise 0.2% last month and by 3.3% on a year-on-year basis. Reuters GraphicsThe CPI report is one of two before the Fed's Sept. 19-20 policy meeting. Underlying inflation was curbed by a 0.3% drop in core goods prices, which followed a 0.1% dip in June. But with worker productivity rising, economists are optimistic that labor costs will be contained.
Persons: Jim Vondruska, Will Compernolle, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Shoppers, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed, Reuters, Financial, Treasury, Services, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Chicago , Illinois, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York
According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP growth likely increased at a 2.0% annualized rate last quarter after rising at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter. Estimates ranged from a growth rate of 0.4% to a 3.3% pace. DOWNSIDE RISKSome institutions cut their GDP growth estimates, with Wells Fargo slashing its forecast by a full percentage point. Still, consumer spending is expected to have grown at a pace faster than the pedestrian 1.0% rate logged in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, is expected to be driven by demand for services.
The second straight monthly decrease in retail sales, which are mostly goods, is undercutting production at factories. Retail sales plummeted 1.1% last month, the biggest drop since December 2021. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon 1 2Retail salesMANUFACTURING OUTPUT FALLSExcluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales fell 0.7% last month. The weakness in core retail sales is likely to be offset by anticipated gains in services spending. The government reported last week that monthly consumer prices fell for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December.
Cooling inflation could allow the Federal Reserve to further scale back the pace of its interest rate increases next month. "To be sure, the efforts by the Fed have begun to bear fruit, even though it will be a while before the promised land of a 2% inflation rate is here." Food prices climbed 0.3%, the smallest gain in nearly two years, after rising 0.5% in the prior month. Fruit and vegetable prices fell as did those for dairy products, but meat, poultry and fish cost more. The labor market remains tight, with the unemployment rate back at a five-decade low of 3.5% in December, and 1.7 jobs for every unemployed person in November.
Economists also noted that goods prices tumbled in November, which could have weighed on retail sales last month. Retail sales fell 0.6% last month, the biggest drop since December 2021, after an unrevised 1.3% jump in October. Online retail sales decreased 0.9%, which was at odds with reports of strong Black Friday sales. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, increased 0.9%. Data for October was revised lower to show these so-called core retail sales increasing 0.5% instead of 0.7% as previously reported.
But consumers are not rolling over yet, with the report from the Commerce Department on Friday also showing a measure of underlying retail sales rising last month, thanks to strong wage gains and savings. These so-called core retail sales were also stronger than initially thought in August. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe unchanged reading in retail sales last month followed an upwardly revised 0.4% rise in August. Retail sales increased 8.2% on a year-on-year basis in September. Data for August was revised higher to show these core retail sales rising 0.2% instead of being unchanged as previously reported.
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