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☆ Opinion: Biden and Democrats are in denial about the bad polls. That’s a problem.
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( Opinion Liam Kerr | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But much more must be done and, as with most change, it’s important to start by admitting there’s a problem. The phenomenon of Democrats dismissing the polls in favor of misplaced optimism has been termed “hopium” by data journalist Nate Silver. Polling denial is not unanimous in the party, as many Democrats are reportedly in a full-blown “freakout” over Biden’s chances. It’s essential they admit the polling is correct, because if Biden is winning, there is little need to change course. This means these groups likely share top concerns with moderate voters generally.

Persons: Liam Kerr, Joe Biden’s, Liam Kerr Liam Kerr, there’s, Nate Silver, Simon Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Biden, it’s, Trump, Biden’s, Harry Enten, —, “, ”, Hilary Clinton, Tom Suozzi, George Santos ’ Organizations: GOP, CNN, Democratic, Trump, Biden, Gallup, Black Democrats, White Democrats, Harvard Youth, Gaza, “ Biden, New York Times, Trump Republicans, Republican, NBC, Twitter, Facebook, Chicago Democratic National Convention Locations: Pennsylvania , Wisconsin, Michigan, Siena, New York, “

Broadly, the poll shows support for Israel and the Biden administration's handling of the situation ebbing slightly further across the board. The poll shows 33% of Republicans now say Israel’s military response has gone too far, up from 18% in November. The poll shows 35% of U.S. adults now describe Israel as an ally that shares U.S. interests and values. Thirty-six percent of U.S. adults say the U.S. is not supportive enough of the Palestinians, up slightly from 31% December. A similar share of U.S. adults say that about negotiating the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

Persons: Melissa Morales, “, ”, Morales, Biden, Israel, they're, ” Morales, John Milor, Milor, ‘ ’, what's, Joe Biden, Sarah Jackson, ” Jackson, Yemen’s, they’ve, ” Milor, ___ Organizations: WASHINGTON, Associated Press, NORC, for Public Affairs Research, Biden, That's, Republican, Israel, Jan, Democratic Locations: U.S, Gaza, Israel, Runnemede , New Jersey, Clovis , California, Jordan, Hamas, Chicago, United States, New Jersey

☆ Why Biden’s Weakness Among Young Voters Should Be Taken Seriously
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

For whatever reason, they fail to reach the Democratic-leaning young voters who propelled Mr. Biden to victory in 2020. They’re reaching the young voters who backed Mr. Biden. In the states with party registration, for instance, the Times/Siena young voters were registered Democrats by a 13-point margin, 35 percent to 22 percent. It’s important to emphasize that just because the polls “look” right doesn’t mean they are right. Mr. Biden has just a 76-20 lead among young voters either registered as Democrats or who have previously voted in a Democratic primary.

Persons: Biden, Mr, we’ve, Trump, Biden isn’t, don’t, It’s, leaners Organizations: Democratic, Times, Mr, Democrats, Biden ’ Locations: Siena

The state hasn't wavered as a conservative stronghold in the modern era, and its last Democratic governor was denied a second term 20 years ago. A former mayor of tiny Nettleton, Presley is wrapping up his fourth term as a state utility regulator for northern Mississippi. One of the most famous Black Mississippi residents, Oscar-winning actor Morgan Freeman, recently joined him at a campaign event. Presley has raised more campaign cash than Reeves this year, and he's attracting larger and more diverse crowds than any Democrat running for Mississippi governor in a generation. Presley says the new method of electing a governor gives him a better chance than the old one.

Persons: Brandon Presley, Tate Reeves, “ They’re, ” Presley, murmurs, “, Elvis Presley, Reeves, Presley, Bennie Thompson, Morgan Freeman, Theresa Hall, ”, we’ll, ” Reeves, Sen, Chuck Younger, “ It’s, ” Younger, it’d, Bruce Springsteen, don’t, William Barber, Barber, —, Nick Bain, Medgar Evers, Vernon Dahmer, Fannie Lou Hamer, it's, Democrat Jim Hood, Joe Biden, Mike, Republican Sen, Cindy Hyde, Smith, Thad Cochran, Jim Crow, Eric Holder, Gwendolyn Gray Organizations: Democratic, Republican, U.S . Rep, Mississippi, Tate, Liberal, Black, Democratic Party, Poor, Waffle, Trump, Mississippi Freedom Democratic Party, Democratic National Convention, Democrats, Democrat, U.S . Senate, Mississippi voters, U.S, “, Tougaloo College Locations: NATCHEZ, Miss, Mississippi, Natchez, Jackson, Issaquena County, Los Angeles, Columbus, Alabama, U.S, Gulfport, Biloxi, “, Black, Atlantic City

☆ Why Are Democrats Losing Ground Among Nonwhite Voters? 5 Theories.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

On the other hand, 63 percent of white voters say abortion should be at least mostly legal, a tally greatly exceeding the usual Democratic support among white voters. Democrats showed similar — if less acute — weaknesses with these voters in 2018 and during most Trump-era special elections. Many hold conservative views on issues, like opposition to same-sex marriage. These moderate or conservative nonwhite voters consider themselves Democrats because they see the party as representing them and their interests, not because they have party-line views on every issue. If so, Republican gains among nonwhite voters might naturally result from Democrats’ leftward shift over the last few years.

Persons: they’re, Mr, Biden, Democratic centrists, it’s, ’, Trump’s, Sanders, “, ” Organizations: Democratic, Trump, Republicans

☆ Opinion | Why Is Joe Biden So Unpopular?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-09 | by ( Ross Douthat | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

The woke wars and Covid battles that disadvantaged Democrats are no longer central, and the post-Roe culture wars seem like friendlier terrain. Biden’s foreign policy team has defended Ukraine without (so far) a dangerous escalation with the Russians, and Biden has even delivered legislative bipartisanship, co-opting Trumpian promises about industrial policy along the way. The hope has to be that inflation continues to drift down, real wages rise consistently and in November 2024, Biden gets the economic credit he isn’t getting now. Across multiple polls, Biden seems to be losing support from minority voters, continuing a Trump-era trend. — much as culturally conservative white Democrats drifted slowly into the Republican coalition between the 1960s and the 2000s.

Persons: Biden, Trumpian, isn’t, wokeness Organizations: Democratic, American, Democrats, African, Republican Locations: Ukraine

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