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☆ Here are the 'micro pockets' of deflation in May 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-13 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

There are currently some "micro pockets" of deflation in the U.S. economy, said Joe Seydl, a senior markets economist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Why prices are deflating for goodsConsumers have largely seen prices deflate for physical goods, such as cars, furniture and appliances, economists said. For example, households have seen prices for furniture and bedding fall by 3.7% since May 2023, according to the consumer price index. watch nowThe U.S. dollar's strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for goods, economists said. Travelers have also seen deflation for airline fares (-5.9%), hotels (-1.7%) and car rentals (-8.8%) since May 2023.

Persons: Joe Seydl, Seydl, Michael Pugliese, they've, Hayley Berg, Hopper, Olivia Cross Organizations: Getty, Morgan Private Bank, Consumers, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, Finance, Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, U.S, Canadian, Capital Economics Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, North America

☆ Here's the deflation breakdown for April 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Consumers have largely seen prices deflate for physical goods, such as cars, furniture and appliances, economists said. They've also declined for some groceries and other things, such as travel, according to the consumer price index. Physical goods prices have deflated in all but one month since May 2023, for example. watch nowThe U.S. dollar's strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for goods, economists said. Downward pressure on goods prices has waned a bit in recent months as supply-and-demand dynamics have normalized, economists said.

Persons: Oscar Wong, They've, they've, Michael Pugliese, Stephen Brown, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Hayley Berg, Hopper, There's, Brown Organizations: Consumers, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, North, Capital Economics, Finance, GameStop, AMC, U.S, Federal Reserve, Canadian, Moody's, Airlines Locations: Wells Fargo, North America, U.S

☆ Here's the inflation breakdown for April 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

That increase is largely due to dynamics in the market for crude oil, which is refined into gasoline, economists said. Annual housing inflation declined to 5.5% in April from 5.7% in March. Shelter and gasoline inflation combined contributed more than 70% of the monthly CPI increase for all items, according to the BLS. Americans' buying patterns also simultaneously shifted away from services — such as entertainment and travel — toward physical goods since they stayed at home more, driving up demand and fueling decades-high goods inflation. Wage growth has been one contributor to services inflation, for example, economists said.

Persons: Grace Cary, That's, Mark Zandi, we're, Zandi, Michael Pugliese, Trump, Stephen Brown, Pugliese Organizations: U.S . Labor Department, Moody's Analytics, Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Finance, GameStop, AMC, Biden, North, Capital Economics, Supply Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, North America

☆ Inflation has investors on edge. But some sectors have deflated
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

But there are categories of goods and services that have deflated — that is, their prices have actually dropped. "You're still seeing some pockets of deflation," said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics. The initial pandemic-era craze for consumers to fix up their homes and upgrade their home offices has diminished, cooling prices. This makes it less expensive for U.S. companies to import goods from overseas, since the dollar can buy more. The Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index is higher than at any pre-pandemic point dating to at least 2006, according to Federal Reserve data.

Persons: they've, Sarah House Organizations: Getty, Consumers, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S, Federal Reserve, Canadian Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Here’s the inflation breakdown for March 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"The big rock in the way here is the cost of shelter," Zandi said. In fact, underlying inflation after stripping out shelter costs is already back to target, Zandi said. watch nowThe increase is largely attributable to higher oil prices. "For most Americans, the thing that bothers them the most about inflation is high food prices." Americans' buying patterns also simultaneously shifted away from services — like entertainment and travel — toward physical goods since they stayed at home more, driving up demand and fueling decades-high goods inflation.

Persons: Eric Thayer, That's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, It's, Hamrick, They're, Sarah House Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, U.S . Labor Department, Moody's, of Labor Statistics, U.S, Energy Information Administration, BLS, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo

☆ Deflation: Here's where prices fell in January 2024, in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

These are the big deflationary factors"A lot of factors have come together to push goods prices down," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. In addition to normalizing supply-demand dynamics, a historically strong U.S. dollar relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in goods prices, Zandi said. Falling energy prices have also put downward pressure on goods prices, due to lower transportation and energy-intensive manufacturing costs, economists said. Lower energy prices also put downward pressure on the transportation of food to store shelves. Consumers get more for roughly the same amount of money, which shows up as a price decline in the CPI data.

Persons: RC Willey, George Frey, Jay Bryson, there's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, rebalancing, J.P, Hopper Organizations: RC, Bloomberg, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, Moody's, U.S . Federal, Services, Finance, Morgan's, Investment, Group, of Labor Statistics Locations: Draper , Utah, Wells Fargo, U.S, Salinas, California

Credit expanded by just 0.4% in the month, according to the Federal Reserve’s monthly credit report released Wednesday. And it still leaves consumers with record levels of credit card debt. Of that, credit card balances grew by $212 billion to $1.13 trillion, while mortgage balances rose by $112 billion to $12.25 trillion. “Credit card and auto loan transitions into delinquency are still rising above pre-pandemic levels,” said Wilbert van der Klaauw, economic research advisor at the New York Fed. Average card balances rose by 10% from a year ago to $6,360, a record.

Persons: ”, Wilbert van der, TransUnion, Michele Raneri, Scott Haymore, “ Deleveraging, Wells Fargo Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Auto, New York Fed, millennials, TransUnion, TD Bank Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Wells Fargo

☆ Why that ‘last mile’ of the inflation fight may be more challenging
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Inflation measures how fast prices are rising for goods and services — anything from concert tickets and haircuts to groceries and furniture. That means further broad disinflation likely won't come from consumer goods, economists said. In fact, attacks by Houthi rebels on ships in the Red Sea threaten to disrupt a key transit corridor and may trigger higher goods inflation if it persists, El-Erian explained. While down from more than 7% last year, services inflation still sits at 5.3%. Why this may all be 'nonsense'Not all economists think the last mile of disinflation will be harder than what came before, however.

Persons: Robyn Beck, Mohamed El, We're, Gargi Chaudhuri, Houthi, Erian, Chaudhuri, Mark Zandi, Sarah House, Paul Ashworth Organizations: Afp, Getty, Allianz, Queens ' College, University of Cambridge, CNBC, Americas, BlackRock, Finance, of Labor Statistics, Labor, Moody's Analytics, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, Capital Economics Locations: Los Angeles, U.S, Wells Fargo

☆ Here’s the inflation breakdown for October 2023 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed aims for a 2% annual inflation rate over the long term. Gasoline prices fell in OctoberWhat's happening under the surfaceEnergy prices can whipsaw inflation readings due to their volatility. That's why economists like to look at a measure that strips out these prices when assessing underlying inflation trends. This pared-down measure — known as the "core" CPI — fell to an annual rate of 4% in October from 4.1% in September. Housing inflation declined in October, to 6.7% relative to a year earlier, and has fallen from a peak over 8% in March 2023, according to BLS data.

Persons: Joe Biden, David Paul Morris, Sarah House, Mark Zandi, Zandi, It's Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty Images Bloomberg, Getty, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's, CPI, BLS Locations: Hercules , California, U.S, Wells Fargo, American, Russia, Ukraine

Retail sales rose 0.7% in September, more than twice what economists had expected, and close to a revised 0.8% bump in August, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The government’s monthly retail sales report offers only a partial look at consumer spending; it doesn’t include many services, including health care, travel and hotel lodging. But the robust sales report also means that the Fed officials could leave the door open for additional rate hikes. The retail sales report came as businesses across the U.S. economy ramped up hiring in September, defying surging interest rates, and the ongoing threat of a government shutdown. Consumer prices rose 0.4% from August to September, below the previous month’s 0.6% pace.

Persons: wasn’t, ”, Christopher S, Rupkey, “, Tim Quinlan, Christopher Rugaber, —, Anne Organizations: Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Fed, FWDBONDS, “ Fed, Analysts, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, ”, Labor Department Locations: Israel, Wells Fargo, U.S, Washington

☆ Here’s the inflation breakdown for September 2023 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Mario Tama | Getty ImagesInflation was unchanged in September, but price pressures seem poised to continue their broad and gradual easing in coming months, according to economists. Despite recent improvements, economists say it will take a while for inflation to return to normal, stable levels. The U.S. Federal Reserve aims for a 2% annual inflation rate over the long-term. "Ultimately, inflation is still the most menacing issue in the economy right now," said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics. Why inflation is returning to normalAt a high level, inflationary pressures — which have been felt globally — are due to an imbalance between supply and demand.

Persons: Mario Tama, Andrew Hunter, Sarah House, there's Organizations: Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Capital Economics, U.S . Federal Reserve, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, CPI, BLS Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Russia, Ukraine

☆ Massive home-price appreciation might be the secret to keeping consumers afloat as savings dry up
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Homeowners' equity is the highest it's been in 25 years, which could provide a cushion as consumer savings dwindle. That trend could be set to continue as the massive accumulation of home equity provides a lifeline that consumers can tap into if things get tough. Bankrate data shows that home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs, are currently carrying an average rate close to 7%. Home equity revolving credit balances climbed for the fourth straight quarter leading up to March 2023, which presents another factor that could help sustain consumer spending. Now, real estate accounts for about 25% of total household assets, and despite deteriorating savings, still-rising equity presents a potential path forward for consumers to keep spending, Quinlan and Seery said.

Persons: Tim Quinlan, Shannon Seery, that's, Quinlan, Seery Organizations: Soaring, Service, Homeowners, Federal Reserve Board, Wells Locations: Wells, Wall, Silicon, Wells Fargo

☆ What Supreme Court ruling against Biden's student loan forgiveness plan could mean for the U.S. economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Seksan Mongkhonkhamsao | Moment | Getty ImagesThe Supreme Court struck down the Biden administration's student loan forgiveness plan Friday. "The Supreme Court decision to strike down loan forgiveness should have no meaningful impact on the economy," said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. The fight against inflation gets a boostIt's challenging to judge the economic effect of a sweeping policy such as student loan forgiveness. However, the resumption of monthly student loan payments in October, after a three-year pause, will likely have a bigger effect. That said, there are student loan policies that have already been enacted by the Biden administration that will likely help borrowers affected by Friday's Supreme Court ruling, economists said.

Persons: Seksan, —, Mark Zandi, Shai Akabas, Zandi, Tim Quinlan, Quinlan, Biden Organizations: Biden, Moody's, Finance, Supreme, Reserve, Center, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, Friday's Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo

☆ Social Security, Medicare, federal salaries: What payments may be delayed in debt ceiling standoff
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Among the ramifications of a debt ceiling standoff, any payment issued by the federal government — like Social Security, Medicare, tax refunds, military paychecks and ample others — may be delayed. Alex Wong | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThe U.S. is in this situation due to a political standoff tied to the debt ceiling, also known as the debt limit. Congress periodically raises or temporarily suspends the debt ceiling to avoid the other scenario: a default on the national debt and other federal payments. Here's the current problem: The country hit the debt ceiling — currently $31.4 trillion — in January. Federal Reserve officials alluded to the likelihood of prioritizing bondholders in a 2011 meeting that followed an earlier debt ceiling episode.

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