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☆ China 2023 GDP growth forecast cut to 5.0%, 4.5% in 2024 - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"The primary culprit is the property sector. This source of growth has now evaporated and won't be coming back," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics in Singapore. The Sept. 4-11 Reuters poll of 76 analysts, based in and outside mainland China, predicted the economy would grow 5.0% this year, lower than 5.5% forecast in a July survey. While recent data showed signs of improvement in the economy, some economists said more policy support was needed for the ailing property sector. A strong majority of economists who answered an additional question said the risks to their 2023 and 2024 GDP growth forecasts were skewed to the downside.

Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Bingnan Ye, Teeuwe Mevissen, Vivek Mishra, Devayani, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Jing Wang, Kevin Yao, Ross Finley, Sam Holmes Organizations: Capital Economics, China Merchants Bank, People's Bank of, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, China, Singapore, Beijing, Hong Kong, People's Bank of China, Netherlands, Bengaluru, Shanghai

That has put pressure on risky EM currencies, echoing the dynamics observed last year when the Fed began raising rates. In the Sept. 1-6 poll, almost all beaten-down emerging market currencies were forecast to move little, or trade modestly higher against the dollar in a year, with some making small gains in three months. The underperformance of China has probably been the biggest story holding back EM currencies." Earlier this year, many analysts expected China's reopening to boost the yuan and other EM currencies, especially those exporting commodities to the world's second-largest economy, but this scenario did not unfold as anticipated. Through the end of this year, we believe most EM Asia currencies can weaken," said Nick Bennenbroek, international economist at Wells Fargo.

Persons: Chris Turner, Nick Bennenbroek, Hugo Pienaar, Devayani Sathyan, Veronica Khongwir, Jonathan Cable, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Treasury, greenback, Fed, ING, Reserve Bank of India, Korean, Bureau for Economic Research, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, JOHANNESBURG, China, Asia, Wells Fargo, Russian, South Africa, Bengaluru

The outlook was little changed for Britain and in India where prices have kept rising. Adam Challis, executive director of research and strategy for EMEA at JLL, said strong wage gains over the past year had kept many housing markets resilient despite significantly higher borrowing costs. Peak-to-trough falls for nearly all housing markets surveyed were downgraded from the March poll. British and U.S. house prices were expected to fall around 3% and Australia's to be flat for the full year 2023. Average house prices are expected to rise about 6% in India.

Persons: Mike Blake, Goldman Sachs, Adam Challis, hasn't, Hari Kishan, Prerana Bhat, Jonathan Cable, Anant Chandak, Sarupya Ganguly, Indradip Ghosh, Vivek Mishra, Milounee, Susobhan Sarkar, Devayani, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Ed Osmond Organizations: KB, REUTERS, EMEA, Thomson Locations: Valley Center , California, U.S, BENGALURU, Canada, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, Britain, India, JLL

☆ India home prices set to stay above inflation: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary poll dataBENGALURU, June 5 (Reuters) - Home prices in India are set to hold above consumer inflation, even though interest rates are expected to stay higher for longer than previously thought, a Reuters poll of property analysts found. The May 16-June 1 poll of 12 property analysts predicted national home prices would reach a median 6.0% this year, a modest upgrade from the 5.5% expected in a March survey. "The interest rate cycle is near its end," Arvind Nandan, managing director of research at Savills India, said. Rates are set to stay at 6.50% for the rest of 2023 and start falling early next year. All analysts who answered an additional question said they were bullish about the housing market outlook.

Persons: Arvind Nandan, Anuj Puri, Rohan Sharma, Vivek Mishra, Veronica Khongwir, Madhumita Gokhale, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Reserve Bank of, JLL Research, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, India, Reserve Bank of India

☆ Aussie housing dip over, prices to rebound into next year on rate view
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary poll dataBENGALURU, June 1 (Reuters) - Australia's housing market outlook has improved significantly, with home prices expected to on average stagnate this year compared to the near double-digit fall predicted three months ago, according to a Reuters poll of housing analysts. They were then forecast to rise 4.5% in 2024, almost twice the expected rate from the previous poll. While ANZ and Westpac forecast no growth this year, CBA expected a 3.0% rise and NAB predicted a 4.0% decline in prices. "We are almost at the top of the RBA's hiking cycle, which means the headwind on property prices from rates ratcheting higher has largely run its course." (For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)Reporting by Vivek Mishra; Polling by Sujith Pai and Veronica Khongwir; Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross FinleyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Adelaide Timbrell, Gareth Aird, Shane Oliver, Vivek Mishra, Sujith Pai, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley Organizations: Bank of Australia, ANZ, Westpac, CBA, NAB, Economics, AMP, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, New Zealand

☆ Global house prices set to extend declines, risk of more with higher rates: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Predicted drops in house prices in the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany, Australia and New Zealand will come off price surges of as much as 50% since the start of the pandemic in 2020. House prices in Canada and New Zealand, which began to fall last year, were forecast to register a peak-to-trough drop of at least 20%, the poll showed. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsDouble-digit falls from recent peaks were also predicted for Australia (16.0%), Germany (11.5%) and the U.S. (10.0%). Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsAmong the most commonly cited reasons for house prices to remain elevated were crimped supply, made worse during the pandemic, when construction activity came to a near-halt, and ever-rising demand. While India's housing market will remain resilient despite rising interest rates, home prices in Dubai were also predicted to rise steadily.

☆ Global house prices set to extend declines, risk of more with higher rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

☆ Indian govt to borrow a record 16 trillion rupees in fiscal 2023/24 - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Gross borrowing next fiscal year is expected to hit 16.0 trillion rupees, up from an estimated 14.2 trillion rupees in 2022/23, according to the median forecast of 43 economists. Predictions were in a narrow range of 14.8 trillion to 17.2 trillion rupees. Even if it is at the lower end of the range, 2023/2024 gross borrowing would easily be the highest on record. Nim estimated repayments for 2023/24 at about 4.4 trillion rupees. India's government will cut food and fertiliser subsidies to 3.7 trillion rupees, more than 25% below the level of around 5 trillion rupees budgeted for 2022/23, the poll found.

Food and fertiliser subsidies that help two-thirds of India's 1.4 billion people will also be scaled back, according to the survey. But private investment has lagged New Delhi's lead for about a decade. Capex is set to increase in fiscal 2023/24 by about 17% to 8.85 trillion Indian rupees ($109 billion), from an estimated 7.50 trillion rupees in the current fiscal year, itself up roughly 35% on a year before. Reuters Poll: Indian budget projections - 1The total of public and private investment as a proportion of the economy has declined since 2014, when Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party swept to power. The poll also found the government would cut food and fertiliser subsidies by 26% to 3.7 trillion rupees from almost 5.0 trillion rupees expected during the current fiscal year.

BENGALURU, Jan 6 (Reuters) - A budget that accelerates fiscal consolidation would give more support to the Indian rupee in the near term, according to a Reuters poll of FX analysts who forecast the currency would erase a fifth of last year's losses over the next 12 months. A majority of FX analysts, 11 of 17, said a Feb. 1 budget that focuses on fiscal consolidation would help the Indian rupee the most in the near term. None of the respondents expected the rupee to be stronger than 75 per dollar, where it started 2022, at any point this year. Abhishek Upadhyay, senior economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, said the "fiscal deficit is still too high and needs to be reduced" for the rupee to find some support. "High fiscal deficit will hurt the savings-investment balance, curb improvement in current account deficit, and complicate the RBI's efforts to temper inflation pressures."

☆ India's factories ended 2022 on a strong note
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, Jan 2 (Reuters) - India's manufacturing industry ended 2022 on a solid footing as business conditions improved at the fastest rate in over two years while growth in new orders and output accelerated, a business survey showed on Monday. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (INPMI=ECI), compiled by S&P Global, rose to 57.8 in December from November's 55.7, better than a Reuters poll median forecast for 54.3. December's reading was the highest since October 2020 and above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction for an 18th straight month. "Following a promising start to 2022, the Indian manufacturing industry maintained a strong performance as time progressed, wrapping the year with the best expansion in production seen since November 2021," noted Pollyanna De Lima, economics associate director at S&P Global Market. Additional materials were purchased and extra workers hired as companies sought to supplement production and maintain healthy levels of inventories.

☆ No spending spree likely in last full Indian budget before 2024 election: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BENGALURU, Dec 22 (Reuters) - The Indian government will focus on fiscal consolidation in its Feb. 1 budget, the last full one before a 2024 general election, according to a Reuters poll of economists who said slowing economic growth would limit it from spending more. That will likely limit the government's ability to provide relief to households and businesses facing an uneven recovery from the pandemic. Economic growth likely slowed sharply to an annual 4.6% in the December quarter from 6.3% reported in the preceding quarter. Sitharaman's expected fiscal prudence coincides with state assembly elections in Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in 2023, which would likely discourage the government from making deep cuts to social welfare. Among those who expect it to be a more populist budget, some said the government would announce new subsidies, an increase in healthcare and rural spending to boost jobs.

Among the nine housing markets surveyed, prices in six were expected to drop next year. Cost of living increases will also reduce demand as some consumers delay home purchases," noted analysts at Fitch Ratings, adding there was "significant uncertainty" around how much house prices would fall. An overwhelming majority of analysts polled by Reuters in the past weeks said house prices need to fall more than they currently expected in order to make them affordable. Already falling sharply, Australia and New Zealand housing prices were likely to fall further next year, by around 16%-18% from their peaks. The last time house prices fell sharply was during the global financial crisis almost 15 years ago, but with most major economies forecast to enter only a shallow recession, a similar crash was unlikely.

☆ Australia house prices forecast to slump 16% from peak
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Australian house prices have nearly doubled since the financial crisis but that boom has led to a build-up of household debt that could become a risk to financial stability. Although average house prices have fallen 6.5% since a peak late last year, with losses spreading to every state capital, they are still well above pre-pandemic levels. "We expect a peak to trough housing fall of 15-20% and this should be considered an orderly descent," said Adelaide Timbrell, senior economist at ANZ. While lower house prices would help improve affordability, it would be a bitter pill to swallow for recent homeowners, watching their capital decline and facing higher repayments as interest rates rise. AMP, ANZ, Knight Frank and Macquarie said average house prices would have to fall between 25% and 45% to make Australian housing affordable.

☆ Morning Bid: Hangover
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell more than five basis points to an eight-week low of 3.65%. COVID and inflation kept a cap on things elsewhere - with core consumer prices rising at their fastest clip in 40 years in Tokyo truly a sign that inflation is everywhere. China on Friday reported another record high of daily COVID-19 infections and the Hang Seng (.HSI) slipped 0.7%. Consumer confidence surveys in France and Germany, and final German GDP data headline an otherwise quiet calendar in Europe, while holidays will likely thin U.S. trade into the weekend. Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:German GDP, French and German consumer surveys, speeches by ECB policymakers Kerstin and de GuindosReporting by Tom Westbrook Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ U.S. yields sink amid dovish Fed signals; HK stocks slip on COVID concerns
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Kevin Buckland | Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 3.659%, the lowest since Oct. 5 in Tokyo trading, after Thursday's U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. U.S. S&P 500 E-mini futures pointed 0.2% higher for the restart of Wall Street trading on Friday. Mainland Chinese blue chips (.CSI300), though, rose 0.51%, buoyed by government measures to support the real estate market. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures jumped 35 cents, or 0.5%, from Wednesday's close to $78.32 a barrel. Gold ticked 0.2% higher to $1,758.44 an ounce amid dollar weakness.

☆ New Zealand house prices forecast to drop 18% from peak
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Average house prices in the country rose by more than 40% at the height of the pandemic before reaching a peak in November last year at levels the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) said were unsustainable. Still, that fall would be tiny compared to the 250% rise in New Zealand house prices since 1998, almost four times the average increase across OECD countries. House prices have nearly doubled in the last seven years alone. Asked how much average house prices would fall from peak to trough, analysts who answered an additional question gave a median estimate of 18%, with forecasts in a 14%-23% range. But a lot needs to happen to better balance the housing market here with a horrible undersupply of houses," said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank.

☆ New Zealand's RBNZ seen raising rates by historic 75 bps
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Reuters Poll: RBNZ monetary policy outlookThe largest banks in the country - ANZ, ASB, Kiwi Bank, Bank of New Zealand and Westpac - expect a 75 bp hike on Wednesday, matching the recent pace of the U.S. Federal Reserve. "We are forecasting the OCR to peak at 5.0%, via another 75 bp hike in February on a 'let's just get it done' basis. If data cools more rapidly than expected the RBNZ could well slow the pace at that point." Rates were expected to peak at 4.75% and remain unchanged until the end of next year, according to the median view in the poll. According to the latest RBNZ survey, inflation is expected to ease only modestly over the coming year and will be higher than previously predicted.

☆ India's economic growth outlook stagnates, stuck in lower gear
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

It was expected to decelerate further to 4.4% in the fourth quarter, according to an Oct. 13-19 Reuters poll. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe median expectation was for 6.9% growth in the 2022-23 fiscal year, slightly above International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank projections of 6.8%. While those figures were only trimmed from the previous poll medians, a deteriorating global economic outlook suggests there may be further downgrades in coming months. "This, we believe, will result in the RBI having to shift its focus toward supporting growth and away from anchoring inflation expectations by engineering a growth slowdown." The poll showed the RBI taking a softer approach with rates.

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