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☆ Norway seen lifting policy rate to 4.0% this week
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"The risk of another double rate hike is clearly reduced," Handelsbanken said in an Aug. 11 note to clients. Norges Bank's monetary policy committee has said it will likely hike the policy rate to 4.25% in the course of this year to prevent a continued rapid rise in prices and wages that could see inflation become entrenched. The European Central Bank last month raised its key policy rate to 3.75%, but a narrow majority of economists polled by Reuters expect the ECB to temporarily pause its rate-hiking campaign at its September meeting. All 31 economists polled in the Aug. 10-15 period said Norges Bank would announce on Thursday that it will increase its policy rate by 25 bps to 4.00%. The poll's median prediction showed that the policy rate is expected to hit a peak of 4.25% later in the third quarter, although some predicted it could rise to 4.50% by the end of the year.

Persons: Handelsbanken, Terje Solsvik, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Pai Sujith, Susan Fenton Organizations: Reuters, Norges, bps, Norges Bank, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: OSLO, Norwegian, Bengaluru

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationBENGALURU, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar will hold its ground against most major currencies over the coming three months as a resilient domestic economy bolsters expectations interest rates will remain higher for longer, according to FX strategists polled by Reuters. The dollar is unlikely to give up recent gains in coming months, according to the July 31-Aug. 2 Reuters poll of 70 FX strategists, which showed most major currencies would not reclaim their recent highs for at least six months. In response to an additional question, 27 of 40 FX strategists said net short USD positions would either not change much or decrease over the coming month, suggesting the dollar would be rangebound. Typically, these conditions often coincide with a more negative dollar outlook," said Kamakshya Trivedi, head of global FX at Goldman Sachs. At this point in time I wouldn't say so," said ECB President Christine Lagarde last week after delivering a widely anticipated 25 basis points (bps) rate increase.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Kamakshya Trivedi, Goldman Sachs, Christine Lagarde, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Indradip Ghosh, Shaloo Shrivastava, Sujith Pai, Veronica Khongwir, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Reuters, greenback, Federal Reserve, Central Bank, Fed, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of England, bps, Bank of, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bank of Japan

☆ Bank of Canada to raise rates 25 basis points on July 12, possibly the last
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

So the BoC will press ahead and hike the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% on July 12, according to 20 of 24 economists in the June 28-July 6 Reuters poll. That would amount to 475 basis points in total since March 2022, taking the overnight rate to a new 22-year high. Inflation is not expected to fall to the central bank's 2% target at least until 2025, according to the poll. The central bank was predicted to keep rates on hold at 5.00% until Q2 2024, said a majority of economists. Rates staying high for longer is expected to boost the Canadian dollar, one of the best performers among G10 currencies this year.

Persons: Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, Claire Fan, Kit Juckes, Milounee Purohit, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Ross Finley, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Bank of Canada, Reuters, BoC, BMO Capital Markets, Gross, RBC Economics, Canadian, U.S, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU

That hawkish change in market expectations has helped boost the U.S. dollar to its highest level since March. Just over 25% of economists in the poll, 23 of 86, forecast at least one Fed rate cut by the end of 2023, but that is down from 28% in the last poll. The U.S. Labor Department is due to release consumer price inflation data on June 13, the first day of the Fed meeting. "If most Fed officials feel at least another 25-basis-point hike will be necessary, it seems simplest to deliver that hike in June rather than 'skip'." Inflation as measured by core PCE was forecast to remain above 2% at least until 2025.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Philip Marey, Janet Yellen, Andrew Hollenhorst, Oscar Munoz, Prerana Bhat, Indradip Ghosh, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Maneesh Kumar, Ross Finley, Mark Potter, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S . Federal, Reuters, U.S, Rabobank, Treasury, Bank of Canada, U.S . Labor Department, Citi, National Bureau of Economic Research, TD Securities, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, U.S, Canadian

The outlook was little changed for Britain and in India where prices have kept rising. Adam Challis, executive director of research and strategy for EMEA at JLL, said strong wage gains over the past year had kept many housing markets resilient despite significantly higher borrowing costs. Peak-to-trough falls for nearly all housing markets surveyed were downgraded from the March poll. British and U.S. house prices were expected to fall around 3% and Australia's to be flat for the full year 2023. Average house prices are expected to rise about 6% in India.

Persons: Mike Blake, Goldman Sachs, Adam Challis, hasn't, Hari Kishan, Prerana Bhat, Jonathan Cable, Anant Chandak, Sarupya Ganguly, Indradip Ghosh, Vivek Mishra, Milounee, Susobhan Sarkar, Devayani, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Ed Osmond Organizations: KB, REUTERS, EMEA, Thomson Locations: Valley Center , California, U.S, BENGALURU, Canada, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, Britain, India, JLL

☆ Global house prices set to extend declines, risk of more with higher rates: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Predicted drops in house prices in the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany, Australia and New Zealand will come off price surges of as much as 50% since the start of the pandemic in 2020. House prices in Canada and New Zealand, which began to fall last year, were forecast to register a peak-to-trough drop of at least 20%, the poll showed. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsDouble-digit falls from recent peaks were also predicted for Australia (16.0%), Germany (11.5%) and the U.S. (10.0%). Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsAmong the most commonly cited reasons for house prices to remain elevated were crimped supply, made worse during the pandemic, when construction activity came to a near-halt, and ever-rising demand. While India's housing market will remain resilient despite rising interest rates, home prices in Dubai were also predicted to rise steadily.

☆ Global house prices set to extend declines, risk of more with higher rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

☆ ECB deposit rate to peak at 3.75% or higher as inflation stays sticky: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Signage is seen outside the European Central Bank (ECB) building, in Frankfurt, Germany, July 21, 2022. All 60 economists polled by Reuters March 7-9 believed her and said the bank's deposit rate would rise 50 basis points to 3.00% on Thursday. Medians in the poll showed the euro zone's central bank adding 25 basis points at the following three meetings in May, June and July to give a terminal deposit rate of 3.75%, higher than the 3.25% peak expected in a February poll. While the median showed the deposit rate peaking at 3.75% it was a view held by only 19 of 60 economists surveyed. There is now only a 34% chance of a recession within the coming year, the poll found, down from 50% in a January poll.

Summary Poll dataBENGALURU, March 7 (Reuters) - India's housing market will remain resilient despite rising interest rates and a weak global economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of property analysts who have barely changed their forecasts from three months ago. Defying a global trend of falling housing prices as mortgage rates rise and crimp affordability, India has exhibited resilience and is emerging from a decade-long downturn due to strong demand. A major source of employment in a country of 1.4 billion people where a majority are unskilled, the Indian housing market is likely to remain a stable contributor to economic activity in Asia's third-largest economy. A recent increase in unemployment also raises concerns about the sustainability of the current housing market trend. "Amid rising prices, affordability will only worsen in the coming quarters.

☆ UK home prices to fall, but unlikely to come crashing down
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

After years of bumper price rises, the average cost of a home will fall 2.4% this year, according to the Feb. 15-27 poll of 19 housing market experts, shallower than the 4.7% fall predicted in a November poll. "House prices will fall in 2023, that is for sure. Because the number one variable for showing the direction of the housing market is employment - and that remains very, very good indeed." In November's poll, they were expected to fall 7.0% this year and flatline in 2024. (For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)Reporting by Jonathan Cable; polling by Aditi Verma and Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan; editing by Christina FincherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bond strategists take axe to U.S. Treasury yield forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Bond strategists at JPMorgan noted recently that the U.S. Treasury market is already priced for a recession and not just for the heightened risks of one. Already off their peaks from late last year and early 2023, major benchmark government bond yields have eased 20-40 basis points since, and more than 50 basis points on the particularly rate-sensitive U.S. two-year Treasury yield. That is about 30 basis points lower on the one-year horizon than a poll published in December. This would extend one of the longest periods on record where two-year yields have been higher than 10-year ones, a yield curve inversion. The poll expected German bund yields to rise from their current 2.25% to around 2.4% in three and six months.

☆ Bank of England to lift rates to 4% on Feb 2, finish at 4.25% in March - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - The Bank of England will lift the Bank Rate by 50 basis points on Feb. 2 to 4.00% and then add another 25 basis points in March before pausing, according to a Reuters poll of economists who said the greater risk was that it would do even more. A firm majority, 29 of 42 respondents to the Jan. 18-24 poll, said the Bank would add 50 basis points next Thursday. Median forecasts in the poll showed the Bank would then add 25 basis points in March, giving a peak rate of 4.25%. Markets are pricing in a peak of 4.50% for Bank Rate. However, the poll showed GDP falling 0.3% this quarter and next and 0.1% in the third quarter.

Among the nine housing markets surveyed, prices in six were expected to drop next year. Cost of living increases will also reduce demand as some consumers delay home purchases," noted analysts at Fitch Ratings, adding there was "significant uncertainty" around how much house prices would fall. An overwhelming majority of analysts polled by Reuters in the past weeks said house prices need to fall more than they currently expected in order to make them affordable. Already falling sharply, Australia and New Zealand housing prices were likely to fall further next year, by around 16%-18% from their peaks. The last time house prices fell sharply was during the global financial crisis almost 15 years ago, but with most major economies forecast to enter only a shallow recession, a similar crash was unlikely.

☆ Bank of England to add 50 bps to Bank Rate on Dec. 15; peak at 4.25% in Q2: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"We think it will be a 50 bp rise, taking Bank Rate to 3.50%, with risks weighted towards a larger 75 bp move, rather than a smaller 25 bp one." Only two economists expected a 75 bp increase next week compared to 13 of 56 in the Nov. 23 poll. The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected to shift down to a 50 bp move this month after four consecutive 75 bp increases, a separate Reuters poll found. After next week's move, the BoE will add another 50 bps in the first quarter and 25 bps in the second, with medians showing Bank Rate peaking at 4.25% then. In last month's survey, Bank Rate was expected to peak at 4.25% next quarter and there was a big divide between economists in the latest survey as to when and where it would level out.

☆ India stocks to rise 9% by end-2023 despite slowing economy - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary poll dataBENGALURU, Nov 30 (Reuters) - India's stock market, which rallied to a record high this week, is forecast to rise another 9% by the end of 2023 despite widespread expectations of a gradual slowdown in the economy, according to market experts polled by Reuters. The benchmark BSE Sensex Index (.BSESN) touched an all-time record high of 62,887.40 on Tuesday, surging more than 23% from this year's low of 50,921.22 hit on June 17. The Sensex was then forecast to rise to 68,000 by end-2023, for a total gain of around 9%. The Nifty 50 (.NSEI), which has also hit a record high, was forecast to gain 4.7% from Tuesday's close of 18,618.05 to 19,500 by mid-2023, and reach 20,500 by end-2023. But by most measures, the Indian market looks overbought.

☆ BOJ's next move will unwind loose policy, 92% of economists say
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Twenty-four of 26 economists in the Nov 15-25 poll said the BOJ's next action, if any, would be "unwinding its ultra-easy monetary policy". Widely known as the policy accord, it requires the central bank to achieve its 2% inflation target "at the earliest date possible." Among those who wanted a revision, seven called for more flexibly judging achievement of the inflation target. One BOJ watcher calling for change wanted a lower inflation target, and another said the BOJ's mandate should be enlarged to include targeting employment or wage rises. On Monday, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida rejected the idea of adding wage growth as a new monetary policy goal.

☆ BOJ's next move will unwind loose policy, 92% of economists say: Reuters Poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Twenty-four of 26 economists in the Nov 15-25 poll said the BOJ's next action, if any, would be "unwinding its ultra-easy monetary policy". Widely known as the policy accord, it requires the central bank to achieve its 2% inflation target "at the earliest date possible." Among those who wanted a revision, seven called for more flexibly judging achievement of the inflation target. One BOJ watcher calling for change wanted a lower inflation target, and another said the BOJ's mandate should be enlarged to include targeting employment or wage rises. Two economists in the poll said the accord should simply be abolished.

☆ India's economy likely slowed to annual 6.2% in July-Sept: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Data due at 1200 GMT on Wednesday, Nov. 30BENGALURU, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The Indian economy likely returned to a more normal 6.2% annual growth rate in July-September after double-digit expansion in the previous quarter, but weaker exports and investment will curb future activity, a Reuters poll showed. In April-June, Asia's third-largest economy showed explosive growth of 13.5% from a year earlier thanks mainly to the corresponding period in 2021 having been depressed by pandemic-control restrictions. The 6.2% annual growth forecast for latest quarter in a Nov. 22-28 Reuters poll of 43 economists was a tad lower than the RBI's 6.3% view. Meanwhile, the RBI raised its key policy interest rate to 5.9% from 4.0% in May and is widely expected to add another 60 basis points by the end of March. "Between December and February, the headwinds to growth may become more evident," said Deutsche Bank's Das.

☆ Australia house prices forecast to slump 16% from peak
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Australian house prices have nearly doubled since the financial crisis but that boom has led to a build-up of household debt that could become a risk to financial stability. Although average house prices have fallen 6.5% since a peak late last year, with losses spreading to every state capital, they are still well above pre-pandemic levels. "We expect a peak to trough housing fall of 15-20% and this should be considered an orderly descent," said Adelaide Timbrell, senior economist at ANZ. While lower house prices would help improve affordability, it would be a bitter pill to swallow for recent homeowners, watching their capital decline and facing higher repayments as interest rates rise. AMP, ANZ, Knight Frank and Macquarie said average house prices would have to fall between 25% and 45% to make Australian housing affordable.

☆ New Zealand house prices forecast to drop 18% from peak
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Average house prices in the country rose by more than 40% at the height of the pandemic before reaching a peak in November last year at levels the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) said were unsustainable. Still, that fall would be tiny compared to the 250% rise in New Zealand house prices since 1998, almost four times the average increase across OECD countries. House prices have nearly doubled in the last seven years alone. Asked how much average house prices would fall from peak to trough, analysts who answered an additional question gave a median estimate of 18%, with forecasts in a 14%-23% range. But a lot needs to happen to better balance the housing market here with a horrible undersupply of houses," said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank.

☆ Indonesia Oct trade surplus seen at $4.5 bln as global trade weakens- Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Summary Trade data due at 0400 GMT on Tuesday, Nov. 15JAKARTA, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Indonesia's trade surplus is seen narrowing slightly in October to $4.5 billion, amid weakening in global trade and moderating commodity prices, a Reuters poll showed on Monday. The median forecast from 15 economists in a Reuters poll was for a $4.5 billion surplus in October, below September's surplus of nearly $5 billion. Export growth was seen at 13.85% annually in October, slower than September's 20.28%, while imports were seen up 23.62% on a yearly basis, versus 22.02% in September. Bank Mandiri's economist Faisal Rachman, who predicted a $4.42 billion October surplus, said while export growth was slowing, demand for imports was rising in preparation for year-end needs. Still, the Indonesian government has forecast the resource-rich nation will book its biggest exports on record this year of $292 billion.

☆ Malaysia's economy likely grew 11.7% in Q3, outlook cloudy
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Nov. 1-8 poll of 22 economists predicted the economy expanded 11.7% in the July-September quarter compared with the same period a year earlier. In the previous quarter, the economic grew 8.9%. Trade and economic activity was also likely to be affected by China's strict COVID-19 containment measures and a slowdown in global growth. A separate Reuters poll showed Malaysia's growth would average 7.2% this year and then fall to 4.2% in 2023. "The currency is likely to remain under downward pressure until U.S. bond yields peak and market participants remain risk averse amid elevated levels of global economic uncertainty," added Tandon.

☆ Fed to hike by 75 bps again on Nov. 2, should pause when inflation halves -economists: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterResults in the poll are in line with interest rate futures pricing. A majority of economists in the Oct. 17-24 poll forecast another 50 basis point hike in December, taking the funds rate to 4.25%-4.50% by end-2022. The funds rate was expected to peak at 4.50%-4.75% or higher in Q1 2023, according to 49 of 80 economists. The Fed targets the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, but the survey suggests roughly half the current rate of inflation ought to be a turning point. CPI inflation was not expected to halve until Q2 2023, according to the poll, averaging 8.1%, 3.9% and 2.5% in 2022, 2023 and 2024, respectively.

☆ BoC to dial down size of rate rises again but not done yet: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The expected move at the BoC's next meeting would be the second consecutive reduction in the size of rate rises after a 100 basis point move in July and 75 basis points last month. Given more U.S. Federal Reserve rate rises are due in coming months, the BoC is likely to get the overnight rate, currently at 3.25%, even further above its 2-3% estimate of neutral, where the economy is neither stimulated nor restricted. So far the BoC has matched the 300 basis points of Fed rate rises since March. "We continue to assume the BoC will dial back the pace of rate hikes with a 50 basis point increase later this month," said Josh Nye, senior economist at RBC. Most economists forecast another slowdown in the size of rate rises to 25 basis points in December and January, taking the overnight rate to a peak of 4.25%.

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