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What the Israel-Hamas war means for defense stocks
  + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
New York CNN —When war breaks out, defense companies tend to make money. That means aerospace and defense stocks tend to rise during geopolitical unrest. Defense stocks typically rise after military conflicts but soon lose those gains. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the iShares defense ETF surged by 5%, with Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman’s shares jumping about 20%. Goldman Sachs announced third-quarter results on Tuesday morning, reporting earnings of $5.47 per share, which beat the $5.31 expected by analysts.
Persons: Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, , Jim Taiclet, “ That’s, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, , ” Sam Stovall, Joe Biden’s, Northrop Grumman’s, Raffi Boyadjian, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, “ David, Goldman, Tony Fratto, Solomon, DJ, ” Solomon, it’s, Lloyd Blankfein, they’re, Elon Musk’s, Elon Musk, X, Clare Duffy Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, U.S . Aerospace & Defense ETF, Raytheon, Lockheed, Boeing, General Dynamics, Northrop, , Lockheed Martin Corporation, titans, Hamas, JPMorgan, Defense, XM, Treasury, CNN, Revenue, Twitter Locations: New York, Israel, U.S, Ukraine, Kippur, Kuwait, South Beach, New Zealand, Philippines
Such areas are often referred to as "bond proxies" for their strong, stable dividends, which over the past decade have usually exceeded Treasury yields. But surging bond yields have dulled the appeal of bond proxies. As a result, shares of bond proxies have taken an outsize hit in recent weeks. The S&P 500 utilities sector (.SPLRCU) has tumbled 13% since last month’s Fed meeting. While the sector is expected to see stronger growth than the overall S&P 500 in the third and fourth quarters, its projected 8.6% increase in 2024 lags the expected 12% rise for the overall S&P 500, according to LSEG IBES.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Irene Tunkel, LSEG, James Ragan, Davidson, Ragan, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Fed, Staples, AT, Verizon, Investors, BCA Research, Reuters Graphics, Friday's, U.S, sector's, Nextera Energy, Nextera Energy Partners, KeyBanc, Markets, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Philadelphia, VandaTrack
The nVIDIA booth is shown at the E3 2017 Electronic Entertainment Expo in Los Angeles, California, U.S. June 13, 2017. Chip stocks soared to start the year, with the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index (.SOX) rising over 50% through July. With "some of the names that really have catapulted to the top, now you are starting to question valuations,” Mahn said. Of course, many chip stocks are sitting on substantial gains for the year and this month may only be a temporary setback. “I do believe there are opportunities in semiconductor stocks going forward," Mahn said.
Persons: Mike Blake, , Lip, LSEG Datastream, Kevin Mahn, ” Mahn, Taiwan's, chipmaker, Mahn, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: nVIDIA, REUTERS, Nvidia, Philadelphia, Semiconductor, Wealth Management, Hennion, Walsh Asset Management, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Lam Research, Applied, KLA Corp, Arm Holdings, Devices, Broadcom, Thomson Locations: Los Angeles , California, U.S, United States, China, Washington
Retail investors aren't slowing down in the current market environment. Elon Musk 's Tesla beat Wall Street expectations for vehicle deliveries by about 20,000 units on Monday, with analysts forecasting 445,925. The stock rose about 7% on the news and also lifted peer EV stocks Rivian and Lucid higher. Meanwhile, net retail purchases of Tesla stock soared to $1.2 billion over the past five trading sessions, according to the note. About 13% of the total trading volume for Rivian stock has been retail investors over the past five sessions, the note added.
Persons: that's, Lucas Mantle, Mantle, Elon Musk, Nikola, Tesla Organizations: VandaTrack Weekly, EV Locations: TSLA
Stocks are once again in a bull market, with the S&P 500 now up more than 20% since October's lows. Nearly all of the recent rally can also be attributed to the index's top 10 stocks, he said. "During the late-90s tech bubble, over one-third of returns came from these mega-cap stocks," Wool said. "In the recent bull run, by contrast, almost the entire market return was accounted for by just ten companies' performance." A 15% decline would put the S&P 500 at 3,800.
Persons: Stocks, Rayliant's Phillip Wool, Wool, Phillip Wool, Solita, Louis, , Lauren Goodwin, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, it's, Morgan Stanley's Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: UBS, LPL Financial, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis The Conference, Wool, Treasury, Federal Reserve, New York Life Investments, CME Group
But Main Street isn’t listening. New data from TD Ameritrade shows that retail investors shrugged off US debt ceiling uncertainty and recessionary fears last month as they increased their exposure to markets. That index aggregates Main Street investor positions and activity to measure how they’re positioned in the market. Retail investors also piled out of AI and tech stocks as the sectors surged in May, opting instead to put their money into riskier bets. But these trades are risky and while an institutional investor might lose their job for making a big mistake, a Main Street trader could lose their shirt.
Persons: New York CNN — “, recessionary, Dow, they’ve, Alex Coffey, Ameritrade, , , Coffey, Binance, Changpeng Zhao, Zhao, Gary Gensler, Hanna Ziady, Willie Walsh, ” Walsh, Walsh Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, First Republic Bank, Nasdaq, Research, CNN, PayPal, Disney, Coffey Retail, US Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC, Global, International Air Transport Association, Airlines Locations: New York, USA, bro
First Republic Bank also expects to cut its workforce by 20-25% this quarter, it said late Monday during its first-quarter earnings call. “Total deposits were $102.7 billion as of April 21, 2023, down only 1.7% from March 31, 2023,” he said. The bank reported earnings per share of $1.23, higher than analysts’ expectations of $0.85 per share, according to Refinitiv data. When the banking crisis erupted, about two-thirds of First Republic’s deposits were uninsured with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. There’s a lot of money on the line: In January and February, trading in First Republic stock was outright sleepy.
Optimists rejoice — Wall Street strategists just pinpointed a handful of trends, indicators, and gauges that all suggest 2023 could see a new running of the bulls. The S&P 500 has already seen a sturdy 8% gain to start 2023, but year-end gains could be even bigger if one of BofA's bullish surprises pan out. "The S&P 500 has now spent more than 25 weeks above its 200-week moving average," Lee said. "Since 1950, there are zero instances of the S&P 500 making a new low once it has recovered above the 200-week moving average and spent at least 15 weeks there." US stock futures rise early Monday, as investors brace for a crucial week of earnings reports to weigh recession risks.
Retail investors have pared back their stock purchases as they remain hesitant to dive back into the market after a difficult 2022, when the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 fell 31% and 19.4%, respectively. But individual investors appear to be missing out on these gains for the most part, according to Vanda. Average retail investor allocations are very concentrated and largely titled towards tech stocks. A strong earnings season, however, could could boost risk appetite for the retail investor cohort. "Better figures or convincing forward guidance from bank or tech stocks will likely lead to a boost in retail purchases."
New York CNN —Forget the banking crisis — Main Street’s retail investors have barreled into embattled bank stocks. At the same time, he said, institutional investors, the so-called “smart money,” have been trading out of volatile regional bank stocks. That could mean bad news for those who are betting they’ll see big returns on regional bank stocks. This is a risky move for retail investors, said Iachini​, and a speculative play. We’re not seeing a meaningful recovery, at least yet, for regional bank stocks, he said.
But they’re also bowing to pressure from retail investors to be more transparent. What’s happening: Investor days evolved from analyst days — meetings that large, public companies historically held privately for their core institutional investors and Wall Street analysts. But the recent influx of retail investors into the stock market has changed that. “A lot of these companies know they need to focus on retail investors now,” said Katie Perry, general manager of investor relations at investing platform Public. ▸ Tesla’s first-ever investor day will be live-streamed Wednesday from its Gigafactory in Austin, Texas.
Stakeholder Labs helps businesses identify and engage with retail investors. Stakeholder Labs provides plug-in software that verifies a company's shareholders and measures customer behavior with a goal of driving long-term loyalty. "Not trying to convert that customer into a shareholder is the biggest missed opportunity," Max Goldstein, head of marketing and shareholder experience at Stakeholder Labs, added. Stakeholder Lab's software, called Roundtable, is integrated directly into a company's website or app, allowing customers to self-identify as a shareholder. Stakeholder Labs customers range from small to mid-sized publicly traded companies that tend to be more agile and willing to try new technologies.
Stakeholder Labs helps businesses identify and engage with retail investors. CEO and cofounder Matt Joanou observed the untapped potential of retail investors while at Reddit. This startup wants to help companies engage with their retail investors, and it just got backing from an investor well-versed in building active communities. Stakeholder Labs provides plug-in software that verifies a company's shareholders and measures customer behavior with a goal of driving long-term loyalty. Stakeholder Lab's software, called Roundtable, is integrated directly into a company's website or app, allowing customers to self-identify as a shareholder.
Retail investors are beginning to reduce purchases of Tesla as the stock undergoes a historic sell-off. "We are seeing the first signs of retail exhaustion in TSLA," said Vanda Research in a weekly update published Thursday. Tesla stock was down during Thursday's session, by 3% at $110.10 each. While Tesla's stock price was under pressure last year, retail investors loaded up on the shares. Some investors and analysts said Tesla CEO Elon Musk's focus on his newly acquired Twitter and his multi-billion dollar sales of Tesla stock has hurt the car maker's shares.
Risk-aversion toward stocks looks like it's setting in among retail investors as 2022 winds down. Average daily purchases have dropped to about $1 billion over the past month, around the year's lows, said Vanda Research. Flows "paint a picture of caution" before the last inflation report and Fed meeting in 2022. Tesla, however, remains a favorite among retail investors as the stock "continues to experience an incrementally higher flow of capital," said Vanda. Net retail purchases of Tesla stock were $666.3 million over a five-day period starting last week.
The average retail investor has about a 10% allocation to Tesla, according to a Nov. 30 note from Vanda Research. Even though Tesla has lots of support from retail investors, Vanda thinks there may be trouble ahead for the automaker. "TSLA's price is dangerously close to summer 2020 levels – when most new positions were added post the stock split." In addition, Tesla's recent stock decline "coincides with an increase in the stock-on-loan value relative to the total retail holdings of the stock," Iachini added. "This metric may not necessarily equate to margin loans, but we believe it sensibly approximates retail investors' bullish positions on margin," Iachini said.
Retail investors have been snapping up crypto-linked stocks and ETFs during the latest plunge sparked by FTX's collapse. Net purchases of the long-positioned ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF and the ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF jumped on Tuesday. "Retail are buying the dip again," the firm said about shares of crypto-linked companies and exchange-traded funds in a note published Wednesday. He said net purchases by retail investors of the long-positioned ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF and the ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF jumped by a similar magnitude on Tuesday, by $1.4 million and US$1.1 million, respectively. Among shares of cryptocurrency companies active among retail investors, crypto trading platform Coinbase fell 8.5%, Robinhood slid nearly 10%, and Block lost more than 7%.
Bearishness among retail investors reached its highest since June after the last CPI report, Vanda Research says. The cohort is likely increase net buying of speculative assets over the next two weeks if the S&P 500 can sustain a rally. Stocks initially plunged after last Thursday's report and Vanda said retail investors were buying the dip. Retail investors appeared hesitant to chase the rebound in stocks over the following days, the firm said. The S&P 500 had climbed in the past two sessions but was moving lower during Wednesday's action.
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