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☆ Dollar drifts, risk-sensitive currencies lifted by China optimism
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar wobbled on Friday, poised for a fourth straight week of declines as investors weighed U.S. data to gauge the pace of interest rate cuts, while China's spree of stimulus measures kept risk-sensitive currencies aloft. The dollar wobbled on Friday, poised for a fourth straight week of declines as investors weighed U.S. data to gauge the pace of interest rate cuts, while China's spree of stimulus measures kept risk-sensitive currencies aloft. "This suggests a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts, prioritizing a balance between the Fed's employment mandate and keeping an eye on inflation risks." The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars also held near multi-year highs due to China stimulus plans. AUD/On Thursday, China's leaders pledged to support the struggling economy through "forceful" interest rate cuts and adjustments to fiscal and monetary policies, stoking expectations for more stimulus.

Persons: Ryan Brandham, Sterling, China's Organizations: Federal Reserve, North America, Validus Risk, New, Communist Party, ING Locations: U.S, China, New Zealand

☆ Dollar weak as traders add to wagers of big rate cut from Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

While the Fed is all but certain to cut rates next week, uncertainty around whether it will go with a 25 basis point cut or 50 basis points has kept investors on the edge and weighed on the dollar. Analysts pointed to media reports from the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal suggesting the Fed's decision would be a close call as one of the reasons for traders adding to wagers of a big rate cut next week. Higher U.S. jobless claims data released on Thursday and the Wall Street Journal article on the Fed's rate cut dilemma revived bets on a jumbo cut at the September meeting, according to Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC. Besides the Fed, the Bank of England and Bank of Japan hold policy meetings next week. "Risks remain that inflation may not return to target as easily as everyone, including the Fed, seems to expect."

Persons: Christopher Wong, Christine Lagarde, Ryan Brandham, Naoki Tamura, Sterling, BoE Organizations: Federal Reserve, Financial Times, Wall, Traders, European Central Bank, Fed, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Validus Risk Locations: North America

☆ Dollar set to eke out weekly gain as traders weigh U.S. rates, yen wobbles
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar was steady and poised to snap a two-week losing run on Friday as U.S. labour and manufacturing data kept traders pondering on when and by how much the Federal Reserve would cut rates this year. The dollar was steady and poised to snap a two-week losing run on Friday as U.S. labor and manufacturing data kept traders pondering on when and by how much the Federal Reserve would cut rates this year. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet at the end of July where markets anticipate a very low chance of the central bank cutting rates. Ryan Brandham, head of global capital markets for North America at Validus Risk Management, said the U.S. economy is getting closer to where a rate cut may be appropriate. In other currencies, the Australian dollar eased 0.11% to $0.66985, while the New Zealand dollar was 0.22% lower at $0.6032.

Persons: Ryan Brandham, Mary Daly, Daly, recouping, Sterling Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Traders, U.S, Federal, North America, Validus Risk, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Dallas Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank of England, New Zealand Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Britain

☆ Euro slips to one-month low as Macron calls French election
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

It was last down 0.24% at $1.0776 as investors weighed the implications of renewed political uncertainty in the euro zone's second-biggest economy in a key election year. "But the exchange rate is still more likely to be influenced by this week's U.S. inflation data and FOMC meeting." The jobs data led traders to once again shift their expectations of when the Fed will cut rates and by how much. Markets are now pricing in 36 basis points of cuts this year compared to nearly 50 bps — or at least two cuts — before the jobs data. U.S. inflation data is also due on Wednesday.

Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Macron, Mansoor Mohi, Uddin, Ryan Brandham, Jerome Powell, Marc Chandler, Sterling Organizations: European Union, Federal Reserve, Bank Of Singapore, European Central Bank, Reuters, North America, Validus Risk, Bannockburn Global, The Bank of Japan Locations: European, Asia, France's, U.S, ., Bannockburn, New York

☆ Dollar advances as U.S. inflation data weighs on rates outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar was firm on Friday and set to snap a three-week losing streak as hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data stoked worries about when and by how much the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates this year. The dollar was firm on Friday and set to snap a three-week losing streak as hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data stoked worries about when and by how much the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates this year. Data on Thursday showed the U.S. producer price index for final demand rose 0.6% in February above the 0.3% rise economists had forecast. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was 0.058% higher at 103.44, after rising 0.55% on Thursday. In other currencies, the Australian dollar fell 0.18% to $0.657, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.39% to $0.611.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Ryan Brandham, Carol Kong, bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Risk, Traders, Bank of, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand Locations: U.S, North America

☆ Dollar eases as traders weigh rate cut prospects
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Data on Thursday showed U.S. consumer spending rose moderately in October, while the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 2-1/2 years. "It remains to be seen if getting from 3% to 2% will be easy, or if inflation will remain sticky in 2024." Federal Reserve policymakers signaled on Thursday that the U.S. central bank's interest rate hikes are likely over, but left the door open to further monetary policy tightening should progress on inflation stall. Investor focus will now move to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later on Friday, with traders likely to scrutinize every word to sketch out rate outlook. The Australian dollar rose 0.20% to $0.662, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.37% to $0.618.

Persons: Ryan Brandham, Jerome Powell, Powell, Carol Kong, Sterling, Toshiro Muto Organizations: Risk, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, New Zealand Locations: North America, U.S, Europe

☆ Dollar hovers near two-week lows ahead of inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The employee of a currency exchange shop counts U.S. dollar banknotes in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico July 27, 2023. The report comes ahead of the release on Thursday of September's consumer price index data, which is expected to show inflation moderated last month. "On the flip side, an upside surprise will likely encourage markets to reprice higher the chance the Federal Open Market Committee will follow through on its projected 25 basis point hike." Futures markets are pricing in a 26% chance of a 25 basis point hike in the December meeting and a 9% chance of a 25 basis point hike in November meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.03% to 149.11 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2311, flat on the day.

Persons: Jose Luis Gonzalez, Ryan Brandham, Carol Kong, Ankur Banerjee, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Validus Risk Management, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, Rights SINGAPORE, U.S, North America, Tokyo, Singapore

☆ Asian stocks inch away from 10-month low, rate jitters linger
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A passerby walks past an electric monitor displaying various countries' stock price index outside a bank in Tokyo, Japan, March 22, 2023. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.59% higher but not far off the 10-month low it touched on Thursday. The index is set for 5% drop in the July-September period, its worst quarterly performance since a 13.6% drop in the same period last year. In foreign exchange market, the dollar index eased 0.057% to 106.10 but hovered near the 10 month high of 106.84 it touched earlier this week. The index is up 2.4% this month and set for second straight month of gains.

Persons: Issei Kato, Australia's, Jerome, Powell, Ryan Brandham, Thomas Barkin, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Lincoln Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Japan's Nikkei, China Evergrande, HK, Validus Risk, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, China, U.S, North America, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore

☆ Dollar steady after CPI data bolsters Fed pause bets; yen nears 145
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. The Japanese yen eased 0.10% to 144.89 per dollar in early Asian hours, its lowest since June 30, when it also briefly breached 145 per dollar level, stoking investor fears of another round of interventions from the Japanese authorities. Japan intervened in September last year when the dollar rose past 145 yen, pushing the pair to around 140 yen as the Ministry of Finance bought the yen to weaken the dollar. "Market pricing currently favours a pause, but the market has underpriced the Fed’s actions before," Brandham cautioned. The Australian dollar rose 0.20% to $0.6534.

Persons: Florence Lo, Ryan Brandham, Brandham, Philip Lowe, Sterling, Ankur Banerjee, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Federal, Ministry of Finance, Saxo Markets, Reuters, North America, Validus Risk, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Japan, U.S, Singapore

☆ Dollar steady after CPI data bolsters Fed pause bets, yen nears 145
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Japanese 10,000 yen and U.S. 100 dollar banknotes are arranged for a photograph in Tokyo, Japan, on Sept. 7, 2017. The Japanese yen eased 0.10% to 144.89 per dollar in early Asian hours, its lowest since June 30, when it also briefly breached 145 per dollar level, stoking investor fears of another round of interventions from the Japanese authorities. Japan intervened in September last year when the dollar rose past 145 yen, pushing the pair to around 140 yen as the Ministry of Finance bought the yen to weaken the dollar. The Australian dollar rose 0.20% to $0.6534. Sterling was last at $1.2684, up 0.07% on the day, looking to snap its three-day losing streak ahead of GDP data.

Persons: Ryan Brandham, Brandham, Philip Lowe, Sterling Organizations: Federal, Ministry of Finance, Saxo Markets, Reuters, North America, Validus Risk, Reserve Bank of Australia Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S

☆ Dollar firms, yen steady after Japan inflation holds above BOJ target
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The data bolsters the chances the BOJ will revise up this year's inflation forecast in fresh projections due next week. Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), said the market expectations for a BOJ policy tightening have ebbed and flowed over the past year. "The window for the BOJ to tighten policy is narrowing," Kong said, adding that CBA's base case is for the BOJ to keep monetary policy unchanged this year. The yen has slipped about 1% against the dollar this week and is on course to snap its two-week winning run. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose 0.03% at 100.78, after gaining 0.5%.

Persons: Carol Kong, Kong, Kazuo Ueda, Ryan Brandham, Ankur Banerjee, Sam Holmes Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan's, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Validus Risk Management, Fed, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Central, Europe, Japan, United State, North America, U.S, Singapore

☆ Dollar firms, yen steady after Japan inflation holds above Bank of Japan's target
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Dollar bills and Japanese currency Yen lying on a table on August 03, 2016 in Berlin, Germany. The data bolsters the chances the BOJ will revise up this year's inflation forecast in fresh projections due next week. Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, or CBA, said the market expectations for a BOJ policy tightening have ebbed and flowed over the past year. The yen has slipped about 1% against the dollar this week and is on course to snap its two-week winning run. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose 0.03% at 100.78, after gaining 0.5%.

Persons: Carol Kong, Kong, Kazuo Ueda, Ryan Brandham Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan's, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Validus Risk Management, Fed, European Central Bank Locations: Berlin, Germany, Central, Europe, Japan, United State, North America, U.S

☆ Dollar at 15-month low as easing inflation firms rate peak bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six major rivals, stood at 99.71 in early Asian hours, its lowest since April 2022. "Markets are generally pretty pleasant with the lower inflation data, because lower inflation together with the still resilient labour market supports the narrative of a soft landing in the U.S. economy," said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank Of Australia in Sydney. Ryan Brandham, head of global capital markets, North America, at Validus Risk Management, said the data on weekly jobless claims and producer prices are supportive of the soft landing. Although the recent trend of lower inflation may be encouraging, it probably won't be sufficient to change the committee's decision." The Japanese yen strengthened 0.23% to 137.71 per dollar and is on course for its best week against the dollar since January.

Persons: Carol Kong, Ryan Brandham, Christopher Waller, he's, Michele Bullock, bitcoin Organizations: US, Federal Reserve, Commonwealth Bank Of Australia, Risk, Fed Locations: U.S, Sydney, North America, Ethereum

☆ Asia shares edge lower on rate hike worries, yen frail
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China's blue-chip CSI300 Index (.CSI300) fell 0.14% and the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) eased 0.11%. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to continued labour market strength. The data "will have traders likely consider a greater likelihood of further interest rate hikes from the Fed." "We expect the moderate pace of interest rate decisions to continue." The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was at 4.872%, having touched more than a three-month high of 4.892% overnight.

Persons: Australia's, HSI, Economists, Ryan Brandham, Jerome Powell, Powell, Rob Carnell, YEN, Shunichi Suzuki, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Stephen Coates Organizations: Federal Reserve, Japan's Nikkei, Gross, Commerce Department, Validus Risk, Federal, Treasury, U.S, Central Bank's, Bank of Japan, Japanese Finance, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Shanghai, North America, U.S, Spanish, Madrid

☆ Asia shares near 4-month peak, yen falls as BOJ maintains policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The BOJ rounded up a central bank heavy week, keeping its pledge to "patiently" sustain massive stimulus to ensure Japan sustainably achieves its 2% inflation target accompanied by wage hikes. As widely expected, the BOJ maintained its -0.1% short-term interest rate target and a 0% cap on the 10-year bond yield set under its yield curve control (YCC) policy. Markets are now pricing in 67% chance of the U.S. central bank raising its interest rate by 25 basis points next month, according to CME FedWatch tool. The European Central Bank on Thursday left the door open to more rate hikes as it flagged risks from rising wages and revised up its inflation projections. The ECB also raised interest rates by 25 bps taking its policy rate to 3.5%, a level not seen since 2001.

Persons: DAX, Kazuo Ueda's, Charu, HSI, Ryan Brandham, Lagarde, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Kim Coghill Organizations: Federal, Bank of Japan, Ueda, Saxo Markets, Nikkei, Nasdaq, Validus Risk Management, European Central Bank, ECB, NatWest Markets, China . U.S . West Texas, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, North America, U.S, China . U.S

☆ Asian shares slide as traders fret on Fed rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was down 0.53%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) edged 0.08% higher. The move from the BoC comes after Australia's central bank also stunned markets by hiking interest rates earlier this week. Treasury yields were stable in early Asian hours after surging overnight after the move from Canada's central bank. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 0.4 basis points at 4.554%. In the currency market, the dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six major peers, eased 0.029%, with the euro up 0.09% to $1.0707.

Persons: Ryan Brandham, hawkish, Hong, HSI, Saxo, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Christian Schmollinger Organizations: Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, Japan's Nikkei, BoC, Validus Risk Management, Reserve Bank of Australia, Fed, Saxo Markets, Traders, Reuters, Treasury, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, North America, China, Canada's

☆ Analysis: As worries over banks swirl, investors seek protection against market crash
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 is down 5% from its early February high though it remains up 3% year to date. ... Now the downside tail has a lot more risk priced into it," said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna. Volatility in the Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX), which reflects expectations of stock volatility, has been muted by comparison, though the index hit a five-month high earlier this week. "That is something worth monitoring closely to gauge the expansion of risk within the system," he said. Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Mark PorterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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