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The 10-year Treasury yield started the new year trading around 3.8% after a steep decline in late 2023. Against this backdrop, CNBC Pro asked three strategists and money managers how they would allocate $50,000 with yields rising again. Specifically, he recommended bills with a three- to six-month maturity, which investors can gain exposure to through exchange-traded funds such as the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) or SPDR Portfolio Short Term Treasury ETF (SPTS) . Exchange-traded funds that offer exposure to these assets include the iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) . Invest in dividend-growing value stocks Newton Investment Management's John Bailer recommended investors solely allocate into value stocks with sustainable and growing dividends.
Persons: Kumar, VGSH, VCIT, John Bailer, JPMorgan Chase, They've, they've, Bailer, Northrop Grumman, James Abate, Abate, Johnson, Geoff Martha, Colgate's Organizations: Treasury, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, CNBC Pro, Sri, Kumar, CNBC, AAA, Exchange, Treasury Bond ETF, Vanguard, Stock Market, U.S, Bloomberg, Newton Investment, JPMorgan Chase, JPMorgan, Northrop, Asset Management, Johnson, Colgate, Palmolive Locations: Bailer's
Tax loss harvesting is a staple of year-end planning. Bonds are ripe for tax loss harvesting in the wake of the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle. Consider that the longer-dated iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has a year-to-date total return of about -7.3%, while the shorter-term iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) has a total return of roughly 0.7% in 2023, according to Morningstar. "Tax loss harvesting is a silver lining for some of the pain they've been feeling the last couple of years." Bonds and the wash sale rule To benefit from tax loss harvesting, investors must avoid violating the wash sale rule .
Persons: Bonds, Morningstar, Kristy Akullian, Jeffrey Levine, St . Louis, Levine, Jordan Naffa, Naffa, VGSH, Lisa, Kirchenbauer Organizations: Treasury Bond ETF, Bond, BlackRock, Internal, Strategic Wealth, Arista Wealth Management, Treasury, SEC, VGIT, Omega Wealth Management Locations: St ., Las Vegas, Arlington , Va
2023: The year of chasing yield Investors historically chase after stock performance, but 2023 has been the year of chasing after yield performance. This year, the combined assets under management at money market funds grew to a record $6 trillion. There have been large inflows into short-term Treasury funds like the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and, surprisingly, even into long-term Treasury ETFs like the iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Still, some think a large chunk of the money in short-term Treasuries and money markets is "scared money" and will be "sticky." Those institutional investors "Don't want any money in cash because it will lag behind the stock market," he told me.
Persons: Paul McCulley, they're, Mark Lehman, Eric Balchunas, Jeff Seyffart, Alec Young, Steve Sosnick, Jim Besaw, Besaw, Mike O'Rourke, JonesTrading, Matt Maley, Miller Tabak, Chris Murphy Organizations: Federal, CNBC, Citizens JMP Securities, Treasury, Treasury Bond ETF, Bloomberg, Schwab Money Fund, MapSignals, Interactive Brokers, Gentrust, UBS Locations: Susquehanna
The Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF (JAAA) , which buys highly rated collateralized loan obligations, has grown rapidly this year and outperformed many popular bond ETFs. The fund has a 30-day SEC yield of 6.66%, putting it above the yield of U.S. Treasuries. JAAA YTD mountain The JAAA ETF has held up this year despite rising interest rates. There are other CLO ETFs on the market, including the BlackRock AAA CLO ETF (CLOA) that launched earlier this year, but JAAA is the largest. Given the size and depth of the AAA CLO market, the fund should have no problems operating until it is about $20 billion in assets, at least, he estimated.
Persons: Janus Henderson, John Kerschner, Kerschner, JAAA Organizations: Janus Henderson AAA CLO, SEC, CLOs, Treasury, Treasury Bond ETF, CNBC, JPMorgan AAA CLO, BlackRock AAA, AAA Locations: JAAA
Exchange-traded funds like the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and the SPDR Portfolio Short Term Treasury ETF (SPTS) also offer exposure. One way to gain exposure to the assets is through funds like the Schwab 5-10 Year Corporate Bond ETF (SCHI) or the iShares Euro Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index Fund (IE). Finally, Rieder said he likes corporate paper, which are essentially short-term bonds issued by corporations. I know what my return is going to be a year ahead — it's going to be 6.5% for single-A issuers. The BlackRock Ultra Short-Term Bond ETF (ICSH) and the Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund (VCSH) offer exposure to corporate paper.
Persons: Rick Rieder isn't, Rieder, — it's Organizations: CNBC's, Alpha, Bureau of Labor Statistics, of Labor, Exchange, Treasury, Corporate, Index, BlackRock, Bond Locations: BlackRock, New York, Europe, United States
Another is the still-inverted Treasury yield curve, meaning yields on shorter-duration government bonds are higher than those with longer durations. Inversions of the 3-month and 10-year yields have preceded every recession since the 1960s without producing a false signal. The Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) offer exposure to energy stocks. The Consumer Price Index, a main measure of inflation, rose to 3.7% year-over-year in August compared to 3.2% in July. Investors can gain exposure to short-term government bonds through TreasuryDirect, their brokerage, or through ETFs like the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH).
Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Michael Feroli, Cash Organizations: for Supply Management, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Federal, Energy, Vanguard Energy Locations: China, TreasuryDirect
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) raked in nearly $2 billion of inflows over the past week, according to FactSet. It has been the most popular fixed income ETF this year, with almost $14 billion in net flows. No other bond ETF has brought in more than $10 billion. With inflation declining and the Fed slowing its pace of hikes, investors do appear to be shifting into longer-dated bonds and away from inflation trades, said Steve Laipply, global co-head of bond ETFs at BlackRock. Short-term ETFs appeared to be more popular with investors last year when the Fed was hiking interest rates aggressively.
Persons: Steve Laipply, Laipply, Schwab, FactSet Organizations: Treasury Bond ETF, Treasury, Treasury ETF Locations: U.S, BlackRock
And as yields on 2-year Treasurys approach 5%, single Treasury bond ETFs are attracting big inflows as investors seek balance in an uncertain inflationary environment. The 2-year Treasury yield closed the month of February on a tear, advancing more than 70 basis points for the month and climbing to 4.878% on Wednesday. The iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (SHV) is comprised of securities with one to 12 months of remaining maturity. The SPDR Portfolio Short Term Treasury ETF tracks between one and three years. Similarly, VettaFi's Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) focuses on exposure to bonds with that maturity duration.
With inflation still elevated, a strong economy means the Fed will push on the gas pedal more. To avoid the resulting downturn, invest in short-term Treasurys and emerging market stocks, the firm says. Eventually, that will weigh on economic growth and hurt stocks, BlackRock said in a commentary on Tuesday. The Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and the Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF (SCHO) are two vehicles for gaining exposure to short-term government bonds. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) and the SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets ETF (SPEM) offer exposure to emerging-market stocks.
Here's how some ETF experts are viewing the year and what types of funds could be winners in 2023. … In 2023, investors should be a lot more selective," said Pedro Palandrani, director of research at Global X ETFs. While those areas would be negatively affected by a recession, infrastructure spending approved earlier in the Biden administration could help create solid demand even if the U.S. consumer weakens. Similarly, iShares highlighted the U.S. Infrastructure ETF (IFRA) and the MSCI Global Agriculture ETF (VEGI) in its 2023 outlook as potential winners, in part due to their inflation-hedging properties . In iShares' 2023 outlook, the firm identified its MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE) and Core S & P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) as two funds that could benefit from a low-growth environment.
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