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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe need to get beyond this Fed narrative and start looking ahead to 2025, says RBC's Lori CalvasinaLori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy, and Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: RBC's Lori Calvasina Lori Calvasina, Warren Organizations: RBC Capital Markets, 3Fourteen Research
That's helping establish a new millennial milestone for some: Ditching roommates, moving out from the family home, and landing on living alone. Business Insider's analysis of American Community Survey microdata from IPUMS found that 10.5% of millennials lived alone in 2022. Per BI's analysis of American Community Survey data via IPUMS, 16% of millennials lived with at least one parent as of 2022. (The data doesn't specify if that means they're living with their parents or if their parents are living with them.) Subsidized solo livingSome lower-earning millennials are able to get assistance reaching the solo-living milestone — but it's not always easy.
Persons: Jess Munday's, Jess Munday's San Francisco, Munday, " Munday, I'm, it's, IPUMS, millennials, Bella DePaulo, they've, DePaulo, she'd, Jess Munday, Dara Feller, Aria Velasquez, they're, " Velasquez, Velasquez, Erica Charles, she's, Charles, Rick Fry, Fry, She'd, She's, Clibborn, Sydney Krantz, He's, , homeownership Chaz Zimmer, Chaz Zimmer, Adrianna Newell, Tomasz Piskorski, Piskorski, Zimmer hasn't, Zimmer, he's, James Paniagua, Paniagua, snagging, Julia Mazur, Kathy Pierre, Pierre Organizations: Business, American, Survey, Pew, BI Garak, BI, Subaru, Columbia Business School Locations: Jess Munday's San, Francisco's, San Francisco, Chicago, Washington ,, IPUMS, Florida, California, Waverly , New York, homeownership, Oakland , California, Los Angeles, Oakland, London, Austin, Charlotte , North Carolina, Charlotte
Since then, several major investment firms have lifted their long-term S&P 500 price targets. The firm recommends pairing cyclicals and growth stocks with those attributes so that investors are prepared for stronger or weaker growth. Technology firms using AI need more power, which is a major long-term tailwind for utility companies, Wilson wrote. "We see the recent pullback as an attractive entry point and an opportunity to formally upgrade the sector to overweight," Wilson wrote. "Small-cap valuation is relatively cheap but earnings growth is highly concentrated," Wilson wrote.
Persons: , Brian Belski, Binky, Morgan Stanley, Long, Mike Wilson, subpar, Wilson, Wilson's, Goldman Sachs, Morgan, Morgan Stanley's Organizations: Service, Business, BMO Capital, Deutsche Bank, optimist, Consumer, Utilities
In today's big story, inflation is cooling just in time for a US presidential election that will likely focus heavily on the economy . This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The big storyThe economy and the electionAnna Moneymaker/Getty, Anna Moneymaker/Getty, Tyler Le/BISometimes, the biggest surprise is when there isn't one at all. AdvertisementOn Wednesday, Biden and Trump agreed to face off in two debates, the first coming in June . Now he has 18 direct reports, according to an internal org chart seen by Business Insider.
Persons: , Anna Moneymaker, Tyler Le, haven't, Insider's Madison Hoff, they're, Jennifer Sor, Ed Yardeni, Jerome Powell hasn't, Powell, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, Biden, Trump's, Alyssa Powell, Keith Gill's, Jim Simons, Shaw, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Sameer Samat, Sundar Pichai, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Biden, White, Democratic, Renaissance Technologies, Sigma, Bloomberg, Android, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Walmart Locations: New York, London
Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin says the S&P 500 could trade flat for the rest of the year. He told Bloomberg TV that the index has already reached Goldman's year-end target of 5,200. AdvertisementThe stock market rally has run its course for 2024, as the S&P 500 now stands above Goldman Sachs' year-end prediction, the firm's chief US equity strategist David Kostin said. The S&P 500 surpassed Goldman's year-end target of 5,200 earlier this month. Still, the Goldman stock chief isn't giving up entirely on the possibility of a bullish turnaround.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, , Kostin, Goldman Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Bloomberg TV, Goldman, Federal, UBS
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBarclays' Venu Krishna: S&P 500's 'sensitivity to CPI remains high'Venu Krishna, Barclays head of US equity strategy, joins CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss markets, inflation, the Fed, earnings, and more.
Persons: Venu Krishna Organizations: Barclays
OMAHA, Nebraska — Many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders left last weekend's annual meeting pondering Warren Buffett's big revelation about succession. Others think Abel will be more likely to delegate the responsibility of stock selection. Buffett's investment lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, have independently managed about $15 billion each for Berkshire over the past decade. In addition to Berkshire's enormous equity portfolio, its pile of cash grew to nearly $189 billion at the end of March. The new forecast would translate into more than 20% upside and push Berkshire's total market value above $1 trillion.
Persons: Warren Buffett's, Greg Abel, Buffett, Greg, Abel, Todd Combs, Ted Weschler, Buffett hasn't, Combs, Bill Stone, Charlie Munger, who's, he's, Bueffett's, Cathy Seifert, Brian Meredith, Meredith, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: OMAHA , Nebraska —, Berkshire Hathaway, Saturday, Madison Investments, CNBC, Geico, Glenview Trust, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, UBS Locations: OMAHA , Nebraska, Omaha, Berkshire, Toyama, UBS Berkshire
Stocks are in a "late secular bull market," BofA's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday research note. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe bull market that's pushed stock prices higher for the past year and a half will probably end in tears, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett warned. Equities are in a "late secular bull market" that likely "ends with [a] bubble and/or recession," the bank's chief investment strategist wrote in a Friday research note seen by Business Insider. Hartnett's bearish stance clashes with the view held by BofA's head of US equity and quantitative strategy, Savita Subramanian, who has predicted that stocks' bull market will last.
Persons: BofA's Michael Hartnett, , of America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett's, Hartnett, Marko Kolanovic, BofA's, Savita Subramanian, stagflation Organizations: Service, of America's, Business, JPMorgan
Stocks closed higher on Thursday ahead of Apple earnings and the April jobs report. Bank of America's Savita Subramanian said the stock market has more room to run even without a rate cut. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementUS indexes closed higher on Thursday ahead of Apple's earnings and a key labor report set to be published Friday morning. Bank of America's US equity head, Savita Subramanian, has said the stock market has more room to run even without looser monetary policy.
Persons: America's Savita Subramanian, , Dow Jones, Veronica Clark, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Savita Subramanian Organizations: Apple, Bank, America's, Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Dow, Citi, Bank of, Bloomberg, Nasdaq Locations: China
Large technology stocks have continued to be a key driver of earnings growth. Those calls are based on the firms' expectation that the economy will continue to grow despite uncomfortably high interest rates. Bullish firms concur that elevated interest rates are a serious concern for investors. "Should the outlook for earnings growth deteriorate, the recent stretch of quality outperformance will likely continue and also expand to include stocks with stable growth," Kostin wrote. Along with each is its ticker, market capitalization, sector, 2024 expected earnings growth rate, and 10-year EBITDA growth variability rate, according to Goldman Sachs.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, That's, Jonathan Golub, David Lefkowitz, Stocks, they've, Mike Wilson, Morgan, 19.3x, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Wilson, Kostin, Russell Organizations: UBS, Business, UBS Beats, UBS Global Wealth Management, Companies, Federal Reserve
The quarterly measure saw wage and labor costs accelerate, adding pressure on the Fed. Tuesday marks the start of the Fed's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS equity markets slipped Tuesday as hot labor data stoked fresh bets the Federal Reserve would remain hawkish on monetary policy. The Employee Cost Index, a quarterly measure of wages and benefits, jumped 1.2%, suppressing estimates of a 1% acceleration.
Persons: , It's Organizations: Fed, Federal, Market, Service, Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Amazon, Apple, Here's, Trump, Bloomberg
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementUS stocks closed higher on Friday to end the best week since November, with tech rallying after earnings from mega-cap stalwarts. Instead, traders focused mostly on earnings strength from Alphabet and Microsoft. In a Friday note, Fundstrat's Mark Newton pointed out that the earnings of Alphabet and Microsoft are paving the way for a broad rally. Next week, Apple and Amazon, will release earnings and investors will be focused on the Fed's next policy meeting scheduled for April 30-May 1.
Persons: , Fundstrat's Mark Newton, Savita Subramanian, we're, it's, Subramanian Organizations: Microsoft, Service, Federal, Amazon, Nvidia, Technology, Bank of, CNBC, Apple, Dow Locations: Here's
But strategists at the Wall Street giant aren't only watching sales and earnings growth, the latter of which is expected to rise 8% this year and 6% in 2025. Share buybacks will be the next most common use of cash, Kostin wrote. Companies will also reward shareholders through dividends, which should tick up 6% this year thanks to 8% earnings growth, according to Goldman Sachs. "The AI investment cycle among the mega-cap tech stocks will support investing for growth," Kostin wrote. Goldman SachsBelow are the 30 stocks in that basket where capex and R&D spending is at least 10% of a company's market value.
Persons: shouldn't, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, That's, It's, they'll, Stocks Organizations: Business, Corporate
Global stock markets may be coming under pressure from geopolitical tensions and sticky inflation — but one portfolio manager sees potential in several stocks. Hinchliffe oversees more than $1 billion of PineBridge's assets via its Global Focus Equity Fund . What we are trying to do is beat the benchmark by constructing our portfolio to be similar to the market from a risk perspective," Hinchliffe said. "We're not taking a view that small caps are better or worse this year than last year; we're not taking the view that growth stocks are better than value stocks. The portfolio manager noted that they "clearly led the market last year based on fantastic earnings growth by and large."
Persons: Rob Hinchliffe, Hinchliffe, , Morningstar, We're, we're, France's Legrand Organizations: PineBridge Investments, CNBC Pro, Global Focus Equity Fund, Equity Fund, Stock, Microsoft, Nvidia, Walmart Locations: U.S, Swiss
If the 10-year bond rate goes up 2%, every asset on the planet, including real estate, is worth 20% less. Advertisement"If things stay where they are, we have the soft landing that seems to be embedded in the marketplace, the real estate will muddle through. They won't muddle through under higher rates with a recession. That would be tough for a lot of folks, not just real estate, if that happens." Jeenah Moon / Reuters"We're in a period that comes after financial repression, where we'll have some inflation and some real rates.
Persons: , Wall, shouldn't, Jamie Dimon, I'm, David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, Jane Fraser, Julian Restrepo, Larry Fink, Stephen Schwarzman, Ted Pick, Morgan Stanley, Jeenah, Michael Santomassimo, Wells, Alistair Borthwick, that's Organizations: Service, Wall Street's, Business, titans, JPMorgan, Citigroup, AP, BlackRock, Blackstone, Bank of America Locations: East, Ukraine
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe market pulled too much of a forward outlook into current price action, says Citi's ChronertScott Chronert, Citi US equity strategist, and Nicole Webb, Wealth Enhancement Group SVP, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: Citi's Chronert Scott Chronert, Nicole Webb Organizations: Citi, Wealth
Watch CNBC's full interview with Scott Chronert and Nicole Webb
  + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Scott Chronert and Nicole WebbScott Chronert, Citi US equity strategist, and Nicole Webb, Wealth Enhancement Group SVP, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: Scott Chronert, Nicole Webb Scott Chronert, Nicole Webb Organizations: Citi, Wealth
Energy stocks have finally caught fire in an increasingly uncomfortable backdrop for investors. Another compelling selling point for energy stocks is that there will be strong long-term demand for oil, Kostin wrote. "Our commodities strategists expect long-term energy demand will remain solid, in part because of increased global energy demand from the structural rise in transportation needs in EMs and AI." All three stocks will enjoy resilient long-term energy demand, Kostin wrote. Each firm has pulled back lately alongside the slight dip in oil prices and would benefit if the rally resumes.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Brent, David Kostin, Kostin, They're Organizations: Business, Oil, Hamas, Goldman Sachs Energy, Commodities, Mutual, Marathon Petroleum, Schlumberger, ConocoPhillips Locations: East, Israel, Iran, Syria
The result was a 1.5-percent weekly drop in the S & P 500 , with Friday's setback exacerbated at least somewhat by a collective clenching-up of risk markets on some geopolitical worry. This dynamic hasn't been reversed, but the signal has grown a bit staticky, draining some conviction from the macro bullish case with the S & P 500 still 24% above the October low. Bull market's backdrop First, it's a bull market, and not a particularly mature or excessively generous one yet. Yet both stocks are still outperforming the S & P this year. The S & P 500 closed Friday at exactly the same level of five weeks earlier, on March 8 – which was perhaps the moment of maximum investor confidence in the "we can have it all" thesis.
Persons: I've, Jerome Powell, Powell, Wall, it's, We're, John Butters, Fastenal, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, ICE, Treasury, CPI, Fed, Grainger, Citi
Without strong profit progress in the Q1 earnings season starting in mid-April, US stocks may surrender their 8.2% year-to-date gain. Loftier estimates, top-heavy earnings are reasons for worryFirms have a rather low bar to clear in the upcoming earnings season, as is often the case. The market's largest companies are disproportionately driving earnings growth in addition to stock returns, Goldman Sachs found. The Q1 earnings season begins in earnest on Friday as big banks share results. Early reporters have beaten earnings estimates by 13.5%, Golub wrote, which he added is more than double the typical rate.
Persons: Richard Saperstein, James Ragan, David Kostin, Goldman Sachs, Kostin, Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise, we're, Saglimbene, Arun Bharath, Bharath, Jonathan Golub, Golub, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Business, Treasury Partners, DA Davidson, Nvidia, Big Tech, Bel Air Investment Advisors, UBS, Institute for Supply Management Locations: America
Nvidia is in a bubble, stocks will falter, and a recession will hit this year, Jesse Felder said. The markets guru said the microchip frenzy would fade, and stock-market returns would drop off. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementNvidia hype is a bubble that will burst, stocks will disappoint for the next decade or longer, and a recession will strike this year, Jesse Felder said.
Persons: Jesse Felder, , outsize, Felder, Jeff Bezos, Meta's Mark Zuckerberg, Jamie Dimon Organizations: Nvidia, Service, Micron
The S&P 500 has surged more than 10% since January, and last week it surpassed Goldman Sachs’ year-end target of 5,200. The question is weighing heavily on the minds of investors, Goldman Sachs’ strategists wrote in a note Friday. The current rally in growth stocks is different from what happened when markets crashed in 2021 or during the tech bubble, the analysts wrote. Either of these shifts higher, analysts wrote, are dependent on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. But for now, Goldman analysts will keep their baseline prediction of 5,200 for the S&P 500 unchanged.
Persons: New York CNN — It’s, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, , Goldman Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Locations: New York
Just because the current valuation backdrop isn't as extreme as 1999-2000, we are still in a market bubble, and valuations are even more stretched today than they were at the market peaks in 2007, 1990, and 1980." Rosenberg ResearchSecond, the S&P 500 is outperforming the HYG/TLT Ratio. AdvertisementRosenberg ResearchAnd third, even tech stocks, which have been overwhelmingly supporting the S&P 500, appear to be running out of gas, Rosenberg said. The same goes for Paul Dietrich, the chief strategist at B. Riley Wealth, who says the S&P 500 could fall 49% when the current bubble pops. The bull market has thrown egg onto their faces again and again: since the October 2022 lows, the S&P 500 is up a whopping 42%.
Persons: , David Rosenberg isn't, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, he's, manias, HYG, Michael Hartnett, Jeremy Grantham, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Dietrich, Grantham, Carol Schleif Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Equity Model, Dow Jones, Dow Transports Index, Bank of America's, Bank, America, BMO Family Office
The US economy has grown dramatically and powered its stock market in recent decades. "The longer-term rise in the relative size of the US equity market has reflected the dominance of the US economy," strategists wrote. Similarly, the prolonged increase in the US markets' relative total size reflects the dominance of the US economy, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman SachsThe growth factorThe strength of the American stock market can be traced largely to its high volume of growth names. AdvertisementThe US stock market has more exposure to fast-growing companies than other countries.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , it's, Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Exxon, Mobil, Ford, General Electric, IBM, Novo Nordisk Locations: Switzerland, Denmark, Novo, Danish
That's one of 10 investing predictions for the next 10 years by the Trivariate Research market strategist. "We have always said 'we prefer a basket of high-quality US growth equities'" when asked about crypto, Parker said in a note over the weekend. "Missing the appreciation of the asset class is not good, but participating in US growth equities has been more than adequate." "Because it is just a proxy for risk taking, investors can mirror the exposure of a basket of crypto through low quality hyper growth stocks," he added. "This sector checks all the boxes … We think there will be continued consolidation, so owning oil-sensitive energy stocks that are mid-cap likely will prove prudent," he said.
Persons: Adam Parker, That's, Bitcoin, Parker Organizations: Trivariate Research, Metrics, Own U.S, Mining, BHP Group, Microsoft, BHP, Vale, Southern Copper, Marathon Petroleum, Treasury, U.S . Treasury Locations: CRE, New York, San Francisco, Chicago, decarbonization, Freeport, McMoRan, Australia, Rio Tinto, Greece, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal
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