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The U.S. economy ended 2023 with a bang, as growth in gross domestic product in the fourth quarter came in at 3.3%, easily dashing expectations on strong consumer spending and exports. Economists had predicted a gain of 2% for the quarter following the third quarter’s 4.9% increase, driven by strong consumer spending, rebuilding of inventories and a resilient labor market. Although 2023 outperformed, defying predictions of a recession even as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to a level not seen in four decades, most economists are forecasting growth slowing this year. The strong fourth quarter number is likely to cast doubt on whether the Fed will begin cutting interest rates as early as the market thinks. “Consumers will likely remain cautious with their spending as they confront ‘cost fatigue’ and less vibrant labor market conditions.

Persons: ”, Steve Rick, Gregory Daco, Daco, Jerome Powell, “, ” Daco Organizations: Federal Reserve, TruStage, “, Fed, Labor Department Locations: U.S, Ukraine

The U.S. economy is on a roll, expanding at a 4.9% annual clip in the third quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday. Analysts are looking for the overall index to show prices increased at a 3.4% annual rate and the core index at 3.7%, down from 3.5% and 3.9%, respectively. On Wednesday, Adobe Analytics issued its monthly measure of online prices showing they continue to fall, hitting a 41-month low in September. “Online prices fell for the majority of Adobe’s tracked categories (12 of 18) on an annual basis. On a month-over-month basis, online prices were down 0.6%.”

Persons: ” Joseph Brusuelas, ”, Steve Rick, Raymond James, Eugenio Aleman, “ Organizations: Economic, RSM US, Federal Reserve, TruStage, Labor Department, Adobe Analytics, “ Locations: U.S

The job market continues to confound the expectations of economists with 336,000 jobs added in September, the Labor Department reported on Friday. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, remained unchanged at 3.8%. “We expect that this era of interest rate hikes is nearing its end, likely allowing the jobs market to level out. Thursday’s report on weekly unemployment claims came in largely in line with estimates and consistent with a steady labor market. “Labor market conditions have substantially normalized from their peak tightness in early 2022,” Lydia Boussour, EY senior economist, said ahead of the jobs report’s release.

Persons: ”, Steve Rick, ” Lydia Boussour, EY, Steven Kyle, Cornell University’s Charles H Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, TruStage, ADP, Labor, Cornell University’s, Dyson, Applied Economics, Management, United Auto Workers

☆ GDP grew at a 2.4% pace in the second quarter, topping expectations despite recession calls
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The U.S. economy showed few signs of recession in the second quarter, as gross domestic product grew at a faster-than-expected pace during the period, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Growth hasn't posted a negative reading since the second quarter of 2022, when GDP fell at a 0.6% rate. That was the second straight quarter of negative growth, meeting the technical definition of a recession. Following the Wednesday rate increase, the Fed characterized growth as "moderate," a slight boost from the characterization of "modest" in June. That phenomenon, called an inverted yield curve, has a near-perfect record for indicating a recession in the next 12 months.

Persons: Dow Jones, Steve Rick, Jerome Powell Organizations: Dow, Commerce Department, Consumer, Federal, National Bureau of Economic Research, of Michigan, Fed, Treasury, New Locations: Dow Jones, U.S, New York

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