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Goldman Sachs forecasts 16% index returns for MSCI China (.dMICN00000PUS) and CSI300 (.CSI300) next year and recommends an overweight allocation to China, while J.P.Morgan expects a 10% potential upside in MSCI China in 2023. Morgan Stanley upgraded its recommendation to overweight on Monday with an increase in exposure to consumer stocks as reopening prospects improve. Bank of America Securities turned bullish in November, with its China equity strategist, Winnie Wu picking internet and financial stocks to lead the short-term rebound. "We have experienced several rounds of policy back and forth in 2022," she added, referring to both COVID and property policies. UBS Global Wealth Management recommends a market-neutral allocation to Chinese stocks.
Morning bid: Capped
  + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( )   time to read: +1 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook:The Fed is in blackout and the World Cup is starting to get serious. Positioning suggests bets against the dollar remain pretty light, and even lightened a little bit last week. Monday in Europe also marks the beginning of the G7's $60-a-barrel price cap on Russian oil. It's not clear what that means for oil supply and prices, because Russia says it won't abide by the measure, even if that means cutting production. On the pitch, Asia's last contenders, Japan and South Korea, take on Croatia and Brazil, respectively.
Billionaire money manager Bill Ackman went public last week with his wager that the days of the Hong Kong dollar's 39-year-old peg to the U.S. dollar are numbered. "For me, the Hong Kong dollar peg is like a delayed, or lagging bet against China," said Diego Parrilla, who runs Quadriga Igneo, a $240 million fund designed to profit from market turmoil. The Hong Kong dollar has been pegged in a tight band between 7.75 and 7.85 per greenback for nearly four decades. In the short-term, the market is moving against this style of trade as local interest rates and the Hong Kong dollar go up. "The far forwards market still prices in higher U.S. rates than Hong Kong rates," said Mukesh Dave, founder and CIO at Aravali Asset Management in Singapore, which in theory ought to contain gains in the Hong Kong dollar.
Morning Bid: Dollar on the jobs line
  + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( )   time to read: +2 min
Tracking yields lower, the dollar is heading towards the weekend down heavily on the yen for the week and eyeing smaller losses on the euro and most other currencies. The next test is Friday morning's U.S. jobs report, where a downside surprise could rip the dollar down further. Stock buying, rocketing local rates and the retreat in the dollar also seem to have finally given a bid to the Hong Kong dollar , which has bounced from the weak end to the middle of its trading band. Limits on withdrawals from a $69 billion unlisted Blackstone trust after large redemptions hint at losses and stresses in global portfolios. People familiar with the matter said most of the redemptions came from Asian investors needing the cash.
Comments from market watchers on the COVID-19 protests in China
  + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( )   time to read: +4 min
ALVIN TAN, ASIA FX STRATEGIST, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, SINGAPORE:"The scale of the protests will necessarily elicit a response from Beijing. KEN CHEUNG, CHIEF ASIA FX STRATEGIST, MIZUHO, HONG KONG:"The China economy is heading to the direction of reopening but the road to the reopening could be a bumpy one. "Overall, the China Q4 growth outlook should remain grim given the COVID resurgence and the related mobility tightening. GARY NG, ECONOMIST, NATIXIS, HONG KONG:"The market does not like uncertainties that are difficult to price and the China protests clearly fall into this category. MARTIN PETCH, VICE PRESIDENT, MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE:"We expect the protests ... to dissipate relatively quickly and without resulting in serious political violence.
Market watchers' comments on COVID-19 protests in China
  + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( )   time to read: +6 min
Here's what market watchers are saying about the unrest:ALLAN VON MEHREN, CHIEF ANALYST, DANSKE BANK, COPENHAGEN:"Normally protests in China are aimed at local governments but a crowd in Shanghai directed their protest against the Communist Party and Xi Jinping." "The protests come as the recent tweaks in the zero-Covid policy seem to have backfired as they led to rising cases across the country that subsequently triggered new restrictions being implemented. MARK HAEFELE, GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CIO, UBS, ZURICH:"We do not expect economic or market headwinds in China to abate significantly over the coming months. KEN CHEUNG, CHIEF ASIA FX STRATEGIST, MIZUHO, HONG KONG:"The China economy is heading to the direction of reopening but the road to the reopening could be a bumpy one. GARY NG, ECONOMIST, NATIXIS, HONG KONG:"The market does not like uncertainties that are difficult to price and the China protests clearly fall into this category.
Morning Bid: Hangover
  + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Vivek Mishra | )   time to read: +1 min
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell more than five basis points to an eight-week low of 3.65%. COVID and inflation kept a cap on things elsewhere - with core consumer prices rising at their fastest clip in 40 years in Tokyo truly a sign that inflation is everywhere. China on Friday reported another record high of daily COVID-19 infections and the Hang Seng (.HSI) slipped 0.7%. Consumer confidence surveys in France and Germany, and final German GDP data headline an otherwise quiet calendar in Europe, while holidays will likely thin U.S. trade into the weekend. Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:German GDP, French and German consumer surveys, speeches by ECB policymakers Kerstin and de GuindosReporting by Tom Westbrook Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
LONDON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Sterling slipped against a strengthening U.S. dollar on Monday as global risk sentiment was dented by rising COVID-19 cases in China, which led to new restrictions in the world's second largest economy. Risk-sensitive sterling was down 0.6% to $1.1816, on track for its biggest daily decline against the U.S. dollar in almost two weeks as China battles numerous COVID flare ups. The pound is expected to weaken further this week with public finances data due on Tuesday and flash PMI numbers on Wednesday. "Weaker sentiment and worsening public finances suggest that the recent correction in real money sterling shorts is already fully valued," said Stretch. Bitcoin was down 2.1% against sterling on the day to 13.600, after briefly falling to the lowest level since December 2020.
LONDON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - The implosion of cryptocurrency exchange FTX shows the need to bring the crypto world within the regulatory framework, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said on Monday. FTX, which has filed for U.S. bankruptcy court protection, has said it owes its 50 biggest creditors nearly $3.1 billion. He added that FTX's woes highlighted the need for regulators to put in place tighter controls as quickly as possible. "The FTX example underlines how important these aspects are," Cunliffe said. "Our aim is to ensure that innovation can take place but within a framework in which risks are properly managed," Cunliffe said.
The dollar rose modestly on the yen following Bullard's comments and is up about 1.2% for the week to 140.36 yen . It also rose 0.9% on the Australian dollar overnight to $0.6690 per Aussie, and is on course for its first weekly gain on the Aussie since mid-October. Fed funds futures pricing currently implies a peak rate just below 5% and for rates to start falling by late 2023. Earlier this week, stronger-than-expected retail sales data had also shaken hopes for a pause in hikes, since it seemed to suggest consumers remained in spending mode. Later on Friday, British retail sales data is due, and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is among a smattering of policymakers due to speak.
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationSINGAPORE, Nov 17 (Reuters) - The dollar was little changed on Thursday as investors digested mixed U.S. economic data, while the British pound rose ahead of the government's budget update. Yet the dollar paused on Thursday after U.S. retail sales data for October, released on Wednesday, came in stronger than expected. "Markets have positioned for the Fed to pivot (but) the U.S. retail sales data very much challenges that narrative," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency strategist Kim Mundy. Traders will also scrutinise speeches from numerous Fed officials on Thursday for hints about rate hikes. China's yuan weakened 0.36% to 7.126 per dollar as new COVID cases caused concerns that officials could order more lockdowns.
The risk-sensitive Aussie tumbled as Hong Kong's Hang Seng led a tech-driven slide in Asian equities. U.S. data overnight showed October retail sales rose 1.3%, compared with economist expectations for 1.0%, a healthy signal but one that dented hopes for a pause in rate increases. "The U.S. economy is driven by the consumer and if the consumer is still spending, it suggests it's going to take inflation longer to ease." Meanwhile, the Aussie dollar slumped 0.4% to $0.6715 as regional equities retreated, and failed to garner support from stronger-than-expected local jobs data. Sterling eased 0.23% to $1.18855, while the yen was more resilient, trading little changed at 139.50 per dollar.
Dollar steadies as U.S. spending points to rate hikes
  + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Tom Westbrook | )   time to read: +3 min
The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell slightly overnight, in response to the U.S. data, and were steady in morning trade on Thursday. The Japanese yen hovered at 139.25 per dollar, while the Chinese yuan nursed losses at 7.1033 per dollar after China's central bank promised to keep local liquidity ample and to guide commercial loan growth. The Aussie dollar didn't catch much of an immediate boost from stronger-than-expected jobs data. Comments from a number of Fed and other central bank officials will also be closely watched. Indonesia's central bank meets to set policy and a 50 basis point hike is expected.
REUTERS/Octavio JonesNEW YORK, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Former President Donald Trump's entry on Tuesday into the 2024 presidential race confirmed the world's "worst kept secret" and created another variable for markets that some investors say remains a low priority for now. Trump's announcement, meanwhile, came as little surprise to investors, as the former president had telegraphed the possibility he might run again for some time. DIVIDED WE HURTUnlike during Trump's previous bid, the discord within the Republican party also worried some investors. The Republican president has claimed credit for the rise, tweeting often about Wall Street's performance. Both stocks rallied earlier this month on reports Trump was considering a third bid for the White House.
Reactions to Trump announcing 2024 White House bid
  + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( )   time to read: +5 min
SINGAPORE, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Donald Trump's aides filed paperwork for his 2024 White House bid on Tuesday as the former president launched a run to regain the title, aiming to pre-empt potential Republican rivals. Republicans are meanwhile closing in on the 218 seats they need to take a majority in the 435-seat House of Representatives. COMMENTS:ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI, FOUNDER, SKYBRIDGE CAPITAL, SINGAPORE (FORMER WHITE HOUSE COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR)"You know how you have a zombie that you can’t kill, like in the Night of the Walking Dead? If any one of those other candidates can present themselves with some of the Trump messaging without the Trump drama, there might be opportunities." Neil Young said 'it's better to burn out than fade away'...feels like Trump will go down this time with little glory."
He is seeking the remainder from other funds, including current investors in FTX such as venture capital fund Sequoia Capital, the source added. Tether's chief technology officer, Paolo Ardoino, tweeted that it had "no plans to invest in or lend assets to FTX." FTX also got hit by the Bahamas Securities Commission, where the company is based, freezing assets of FTX Digital Markets "and related parties". In a tweet, FTX said it had reached a deal with Tron to establish a special facility that would allow clients to swap some crypto assets from FTX to external wallets. Bankman-Fried told investors that Alameda owes FTX about $10 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Bankman-Fried said he was in talks with "a number of players" in the crypto sector, including Justin Sun who is the founder of crypto token Tron, after a potential rescue deal with larger rival Binance fell apart. He also said his firm Alameda Research, which sources have said was partly behind FTX's problems, was winding down trading. FTX's native token, FTT , is down more than 90% this week and was attempting to steady around $3.50. Another exchange, OKX, said it had been approached earlier in the week by Bankman-Fried, who described liabilities of $7 billion that needed covering fast. Bankman-Fried said FTX.US, the U.S. operations of the exchange, however, had not been financially impacted.
HONG KONG/SINGAPORE/NEW YORK Nov 10 (Reuters) - FTX's Sam Bankman-Fried is seeking new funds after a deal with Binance collapsed, according to a staff memo on Thursday viewed by Reuters, as the crypto exchange looks to plug a reported $8 billion hole in its finances. Larger rival Binance walked away from a bailout of FTX on Wednesday, sending cryptocurrency prices plunging as hopes for a rescue diminished. In the memo, viewed by Reuters, Bankman-Fried said for the next week he would be "conducting a raise" to do right by customers and "possible new investors." It came after Bankman-Fried told employees on Wednesday he was exploring all options for his firm after the Binance deal with collapsed. TX's shortfall comes after users rushed to withdraw $6 billion in crypto tokens from FTX in just 72 hours.
FTX head Sam Bankman-Fried said he was "exploring all the options", but fading hopes for rescue left FTX teetering. A message on the FTX website said: "FTX is currently unable to process withdrawals. "The dagger will continue to hang over the crypto market, as long as the outlook of FTX's fate remains unclear." 'CONFIDENCE CRISIS'There are also early signs that the fallout could spread beyond crypto markets, with jittery stockmarkets sliding on Wall Street overnight. Most crypto players remain bullish about the long term, but are braced for further falls in the near future.
Morning Bid: Red wave
  + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( )   time to read: +1 min
The "red wave", however, showed up in markets. The S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 2% on Wednesday and the dollar seemed to catch a bid from a wave of cryptocurrency selling. Bonds rallied with the risk-averse mood, which opens the door for disappointment as U.S. inflation data comes into focus later on Thursday. Share markets fell around Asia, with MSCI's broadest ex-Japan index (.MIAPJ0000PUS) down 1%. European futures fell 0.6%.
Robinhood has no direct exposure to FTX, says CEO
  + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( )   time to read: 1 min
SINGAPORE, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Broker Robinhood has no direct exposure to crypto exchange FTX, chief executive Vlad Tenev said on Twitter. "Despite SBF having an equity stake in Robinhood, we have no direct exposure to Alameda, FTX, or any of its entities," he wrote, referring to FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried. He said there were elevated trading volumes recently and that the last couple of days were "our two biggest days of crypto inflows ever." Cryptocurrency markets have been sliding as uncertainty swirls around the fate of FTX. Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
He is seeking the remainder from other funds, including current investors in FTX such as venture capital fund Sequoia Capital, the source added. Bankman-Fried told investors that Alameda owes FTX about $10 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported. FTX had lent more than half of its customer funds to Alameda, the newspaper said. The U.S. securities regulator is investigating's handling of customer funds and crypto-lending activities, according to a source with knowledge of the inquiry. Canada's Ontario Teachers Pension Plan, Tiger Global and Japan's Softbank are also FTX investors.
Factbox: Top crypto exchanges by volume
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( )   time to read: 1 min
[1/3] Smartphone with displayed Binance logo and representation of cryptocurrencies are placed on keyboard in this illustration taken, November 8, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationNov 9 (Reuters) - Binance, the world's biggest cryptocurrency exchange, on Tuesday signed a non-binding agreement to buy rival FTX's non-U.S. unit. The move is the latest and potentially largest bailout in the crypto world, and investors are on edge about how the shakeout might re-shape the trading landscape. Here is a list of the biggest crypto exchanges in terms of volume this year, according to analytics website CoinGecko. Compiled by Harish Sridharan in Bengaluru and Tom Westbrook in Singapore; Editing by Bradley PerrettOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Morning Bid: Bank man fried
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( )   time to read: +2 min
"We are in the best of hands," FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried said on Twitter, after announcing a bailout that has not quite soothed market jitters. Bitcoin was falling in Asia on Wednesday, so was FTX's collapsing token and Binance's token had the wobbles. As Spectra Markets' Brent Donnelly and others have previously noted, naming rights are a reasonable signal of irrational exuberance. FTX's 19-year deal for naming rights at the Miami Heat basketball team's home arena looks to face a similar fate, as does its sponsorship of the Mercedes F1 team. China's factory gate prices dropped for the first time since December 2020, and consumer inflation moderated, underlining faltering domestic demand.
The greenback has been under downward pressure from bets on the Federal Reserve easing back on interest rate rises and on China reopening and driving growth. It touched multi-week lows against the euro, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar overnight, then edged off those levels during the Asia session. Some analysts view likely Congressional gridlock as a slight negative for the dollar if it limits fiscal spending. MORE TO DOLooming on Thursday is U.S. inflation data. The New Zealand dollar wobbled 0.3% lower to $0.5942.
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