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☆ The West could live with a frozen Ukraine conflict
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Ukraine may be heading for a similarly frozen conflict with Russia. So a frozen conflict would help the West achieve – at least partly – its key geostrategic aim: to show hostile powers that it doesn’t pay to invade one of its friends. In a frozen conflict, Ukraine would still need to invest heavily in massive fortifications, anti-missile defence systems and technology to deter Russian attacks. ECONOMIC WARIn a frozen conflict, sanctions against Russia would probably remain more or less in place. REBUILDING UKRAINEIt will be harder to rebuild Ukraine’s infrastructure in a frozen conflict than if there was peace.

Persons: Nuzhnenko, Vladimir Putin, Putin, Valery Zaluzhny, Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Tim Ash, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Ukraine's National Guard Omega, Radio Free, Radio Liberty, REUTERS Acquire, Reuters, Moscow, Hamas, U.S, EU, International Monetary Fund, Kremlin, Investors, BlueBay Asset Management, Soviet, Cyprus, European Commission, West, Thomson Locations: Avdiivka, Ukraine, Donetsk region, Radio Free Europe, Korea, Cyprus, Russia, Kyiv, –, Israel, United States, Moscow, North Korea, Iran, Russian, UKRAINE, West Germany, Soviet Union

But it was the repeated use of the word holistic - or "bütüncül" - by the former Goldman Sachs banker and Turkey's first female central bank chief that caught most of the attention. "We are making the gradual and steady rate hikes more holistic and stronger through quantitative tightening and selective credit tightening," Erkan told the news conference. "Unless the credit and monetary tightening really kick in, investors would expect the central bank to hike more aggressively," he said. "She clearly wants to be the face of Turkish monetary policy making," said Neuberger Berman's Nazli. "We saw a person who seems to be capable of being a central bank governor, compared to previous governors, but cautious."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's, Kaan Nazli, Neuberger Berman, policymaker Mehmet Simsek, Tim Ash, Erdogan, Ash, Marek Drimal, Neuberger Berman's Nazli, swerved, Emre Akcakmak, Karin Strohecker, Libby George, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Turkey's, Ministry, BlueBay Asset Management, Societe Generale, East Capital, Thomson Locations: Rosario, London

☆ 'Much more needs to be done' to bring down Turkey's inflation, says Tim Ash
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Much more needs to be done' to bring down Turkey's inflation, says Tim AshBlueBay Asset Management's Timothy Ash says more needs to be done to bring down Turkey's inflation even as the country's monthly inflation came in lower than expected.

Persons: Tim Ash, Timothy Ash

☆ Smaller-than-expected Turkey rate hike hits lira, bonds
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, June 22 (Reuters) - Turkey's new central bank governor Hafize Gaye Erkan delivered a smaller-than-expected interest rate hike at her first rate meeting on Thursday, sending the lira and the country's dollar-denominated sovereign bonds sharply lower. The bank lifted its key rate 650 basis points to 15% compared to the median of 21% expected in a Reuters poll. "On the other hand they are promising more tightening ahead... so you have to give them the benefit of the doubt." "I am more worried about the medium-term outlook which is likely to see further lira depreciation. TIM ASH, EM SENIOR SOVEREIGN STRATEGIST, BLUEBAY ASSET MANAGEMENT"Ouch - disappointing.

Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, PIOTR MATYS, Erkan, Erdogan, PETER KISLER, JON HARRISON, Amruta Khandekar, Ali Kucukgocmen, Marc Jones, Libby George, Karin Strohecker, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Thomson

☆ Turkish lira crashes as new government sets sights on ‘rational’ policies
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Markets are also waiting for the appointment of a new central bank governor to replace Sahap Kavcioglu, who spearheaded interest rate cuts under Erdogan’s unorthodox policies. Bankers say the lira’s continued gradual depreciation will lead to improved market conditions and halt a decline in central bank reserves. But it sparked a record lira crisis in 2021 and sent inflation to a 24-year high above 85% last year. Erdogan is considering appointing Hafize Gaye Erkan, a senior finance executive in the United States, as central bank governor, Reuters reported Monday. Erkan would be the country’s fifth central bank chief in four years, after Erdogan fired previous governors as part of frequent policy shifts.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Sahap Kavcioglu, ”, Tim Ash, “, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Paul McNamara Organizations: BlueBay Asset Management, Bankers, Reuters, Simsek, GAM Locations: Turkish, United States, Ankara, Turkey

Markets are also waiting for the appointment of a new central bank governor to replace Sahap Kavcioglu, who spearheaded rate cuts under Erdogan's unorthodox policies. "I think we are seeing the impact of Simsek pushing (the Turkish central bank) for rational policy." Bankers say the lira's continued gradual depreciation will lead to improved market conditions and halt a decline in central bank reserves. But it sparked a record lira crisis in December of 2021 and sent inflation to a 24-year high above 85% last year. Erdogan is considering appointing Hafize Gaye Erkan, a senior finance executive in the United States, as central bank governor, Reuters reported on Monday.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Sahap Kavcioglu, Tim Ash, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Paul McNamara, Huseyin Hayatsever, Jonathan Spicer, Ali Kucukgocmen, Tom Hogue, Christina Fincher Organizations: BlueBay Asset Management, Bankers, Reuters, Simsek, GAM, Thomson Locations: ANKARA, Turkish, United States, Ankara, Turkey, Jorgelina, Rosario, London

☆ Turkish lira teeters near record low as Erdogan secures victory
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A U.S. one dollar banknote is seen next to Turkish lira banknotes in this illustration taken in Istanbul, Turkey November 23, 2021. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/IllustrationLONDON, May 29 (Reuters) - Turkey's lira wobbled near record lows against the dollar as President Tayyip Erdogan secured victory in the country's presidential election on Sunday, extending his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade. The currency was at 20.05 to the dollar during Asian hours, just shy of the 20.06 record low hit on Friday. "Only the most optimistic would hope that Erdogan now feels sufficiently secure politically to revert to orthodox economic policy." "Erdogan is unlikely to embrace an outright economic orthodox approach," Wolfango Piccoli, co-president at advisory firm Teneo said in emailed comments.

☆ Instant View: Turkey faces runoff election as Erdogan survives first test but remains at risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/3] Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan greets his supporters as he leaves his residence in Istanbul, Turkey May 14, 2023. I would expect a significant crash in the Istanbul stock exchange and lots of fluctuations in the currency. Both sides will try to make a case for themselves but Erdogan will be in an advantage in a second round. GALIP DALAY, ASSOCIATE FELLOW AT CHATHAM HOUSE"If the current numbers are confirmed by the Supreme Election Board, the governing coalition will go to the second round with numeric and psychological advantages. It has the majority in the parliament and Erdogan is poised to go to the second round with a lead over his rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu."

☆ Ukraine's Naftogaz says Russia told to pay $5 billion for seizing Crimea assets
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] The logo of Ukraine's state energy company Naftogaz is seen outside the company's headquarters in central Kyiv, Ukraine October 18, 2021. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich/File PhotoKYIV, April 13 (Reuters) - Ukraine's state-owned gas company Naftogaz said on Thursday that Moscow had been ordered by an arbitration court in The Hague to pay $5 billion in compensation for unlawfully expropriating its assets in Russian-annexed Crimea in 2014. "Despite Russia's attempts to obstruct justice, the Arbitration Tribunal ordered Russia to compensate Naftogaz for losses of $5 billion," Naftogaz said. The company, whose assets in Crimea included Chornomornaftogaz which produced significant amounts of gas from the Black Sea, gave no further detail of which overseas Russian assets it could target. Naftogaz has been in talks with investors on a debt restructuring to bring the company out of a months-long default.

☆ A post-Erdogan Turkey could come in from the cold
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The six-party coalition challenging the ruling AK Party plans to stamp out inflation, which official figures put at 58%. The six-party coalition should probably do this pre-emptively to gain extra economic credibility, though it seems unlikely to do so. These have soared following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, as some Western goods now go to Russia via Turkey. Nathalie Tocci, a former special adviser to two EU foreign policy supremos, shares this view. But it is not too early to think about how to bring Turkey in from the cold if he loses.

☆ Even a weak Russia is a problem for Europe
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

TINOS, Greece, Feb 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Almost a year after Russia invaded Ukraine it is hard to see Vladimir Putin winning his war. After all, that would involve either Ukraine surrendering land, which it cannot accept, or Russia giving up all the territory it has occupied including Crimea, which Putin won’t do. Radoslaw Sikorski, a former Polish foreign minister who is now a member of the European Parliament, says Russia only reforms itself after military defeats like the Crimean War, the Russo-Japanese War, World War One and the Cold War. Europe, which was late to appreciate the danger posed by Putin, won’t quickly forget the lesson even if he goes. Yet even a Russia weakened by a year of war and sanctions remains a problem for Europe.

☆ Analysis: Investors see Erdogan's earthquake response as pivotal
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Kopf was referring to Turkey's 2002 election which came three years after a 7.6 magnitude earthquake in Izmit near Istanbul that killed nearly 18,000 people. The southeast region hit by Monday's disaster accounts for a much smaller 9.3% of national GDP and a modest 8.5% of exports. Erik Meyersson, a senior economist at Handelsbanken, said it was that power that voters would now need to see working. "But if he bungles the response, perhaps this is the straw that breaks the camel's back." Magnitude 7.9 earthquake hit southern Turkey on Feb. 6Reporting by Marc Jones; Editing by Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Trying to bankrupt Russia could backfire
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Reuters GraphicsIn the initial aftermath of the invasion, Western allies mostly issued threats to stop buying Russian oil and gas. Russia could push up the global price by carrying out threats to reduce its oil exports. But if the global price rose enough, Russia might still earn similar amounts at lower volumes. But the global gas price would rise, and Russia could direct the liquefied natural gas it currently sells to Europe to other regions. With Kyiv benefiting from military support and the gains from tighter sanctions uncertain, trying to bankrupt Russia is not worth the risk.

☆ Fondul suveran al Rusiei va renunţa la toate activele în dolari
▼ + stars: | 2021-06-03 | by ( Publika.Md - Aici Sunt Știrile | ) www.publika.md time to read: +2 min

Fondul suveran al Rusiei îşi va vinde toate activele în dolari americani pentru a majora ponderea deţinerilor în euro, yuani şi aur, a declarat joi ministrul rus al Finanţelor, Anton Siluanov, adăugând că aceste modificări ar urma să aibă loc pe parcursul următoarelor săptămâni, transmite Reuters, citează Agerpres. Oficialul citat a precizat că, după ce vor fi operate aceste modificări, fondul suveran al Rusiei va deţine 40% din active în euro, 30% în yuani şi 20% în aur. Fondul suveran al Rusiei este fondul unde se acumulează veniturile din exporturile de petrol ale Rusiei. Conceput iniţial ca un fond care să sprijine sistemul public de pensii, fondul suveran al Rusiei avea la 1 mai anul curent active în valoare de 185,9 miliarde dolari. Decizia de a renunţa la activele în dolari în cazul fondului suveran nu va afecta cursul de schimb al rublei, a subliniat prim-vicepremierul rus, Andrei Belousov.

Persons: Rusiei îşi, Anton Siluanov, Andrei Belousov, Tim Ash, Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden Organizations: Reuters, ING, BlueBay, Management, Banca Centrală Locations: Rusiei, Agerpres, Rusia, Crimeea, Sankt Petersburg, SUA, american

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