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☆ UK inflation rate surprises with rise to 4%, led by alcohol and tobacco
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Andresr | E+ | Getty ImagesLONDON — U.K. inflation unexpectedly nudged upwards to 4% year-on-year in December, fueled by a rise in alcohol and tobacco prices. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a modest decline in the annual headline CPI to 3.8%, after November's sharper-than-expected fall to 3.9%. The closely watched core CPI figure — which excludes volatile food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices — came in at an annual 5.1%, above a 4.9% Reuters forecast and unchanged from November. "This unexpected rise in inflation is a timely reminder that the struggle against soaring inflation is not yet over, particularly given stubbornly high core and services inflation," said Suren Thiru, economics director at ICAEW. "While inflation may rise again in January, following the increase in Ofgem's energy price cap, it should fall at a decent pace thereafter, aided by the expected drop in energy bills from April and lower food inflation."

Persons: Jeremy Hunt Organizations: Reuters, National Statistics, British, Bank of England Locations: U.S, France, Germany

☆ UK inflation falls by more than expected in October to 4.6%, lowest in two years
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Food and non-alcoholic beverages also contributed to the easing of inflation, with the annual rate falling to its lowest since June 2022. The largest downward contribution came from housing and household services, the Office for National Statistics revealed, where the annual rate for CPI hit the lowest since records began in January 1950. Core CPI — which excludes volatile food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices — fell to an annual 5.7% in October from 6.1% in September. LONDON — U.K. inflation fell sharply in October to 4.6% from 6.7% the previous month, hitting a two-year low. The drop was welcome news for Downing Street after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak committed to halving U.K. inflation back in January, when the annual CPI rate was running above 10%.

Persons: Rishi Sunak, Lindsay James Organizations: National Statistics, CPI, Reuters, LONDON, Bank of England, Downing, Bank of England's, Quilter Investors, Monetary

☆ UK economy grew 0.2% in August, propped up by services sector
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.K. gross domestic product grew by 0.2% in August, the Office for National Statistics estimated Thursday, partially recovering from a downwardly revised 0.6% contraction in July. "It does not change the outlook for the Bank of England and confirms that the Bank Rate does not have much upside from here, but will remain at current levels for an extended period." The Bank of England last month ended a run of 14 consecutive interest rate hikes after data showed inflation was running below expectations. "The UK has grown faster than France and Germany since the pandemic and today's data shows the economy is more resilient than expected," U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said Thursday. U.K. headline inflation dipped to an annual 6.7% in August, below expectations but still well above the Bank's 2% target.

Persons: Mathieu Savary, Jeremy Hunt, Thiru Organizations: Citibank, HSBC, National Statistics, BCA Research, Bank of England, of England, Bank, Finance, Institute of Chartered Accountants, Wales, Bank of England's Locations: Wharf, London, United Kingdom, U.K, European, France, Germany, England

☆ UK headline inflation rate drops sharply to 6.8% in July, in line with expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

In August, the Bank of England increased interest rates for the 14th time in a row. LONDON — U.K. headline inflation cooled sharply in July to an annual 6.8%, but the core consumer price index remained unchanged, posing a potential headache for the Bank of England. Analysts noted that the participation rate broadly held steady, while the employment rate declined, signaling a weakening in labor demand. U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said the drop in headline inflation showed the government's action to tackle inflation is "working," but "we're not at the finish line." Cost-of-living crisis 'far from over'With headline inflation falling to 6.8% and wages growing at record pace, the U.K.'s prolonged cost-of-living crisis may be showing signs of abating, said David Henry, investment manager at Quilter Cheviot.

Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, David Henry, Henry, Suren, Thiru Organizations: Bank of England, LONDON, Reuters, National Statistics, Monetary, Analysts, Office, Finance, Institute of Chartered Accountants Locations: CPIH, Cheviot, England, Wales

The BoE said in May it expected June inflation would fall to 7.9%, moving further away from October's 41-year high of 11.1% but still way above its 2% target. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the core measure of price growth to hold at 7.1%. Despite June's drop, Britain's inflation rate remains the highest among the world's top seven rich economies. In Western Europe, only Iceland had a higher rate of inflation in June. Suren Thiru, Economics Director at ICAEW, an accountancy body, said July's inflation rate was likely to slow to below 7%.

Persons: Sterling, BoE, James Smith ,, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, William Schomberg, William James, Sarah Young, Catherine Evans Organizations: Reuters, Bank of, Bank of England, U.S ., Reuters Graphics, National Statistics, Labour Party, Sunak's Conservative Party of, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Manufacturers, Thomson Locations: Bank of England, May's, Western Europe, Iceland, Britain

☆ UK inflation exceeds expectations in May, piling pressure on the government and Bank of England
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The OECD recently predicted that the UK will experience the highest inflation among all advanced economies this year. Inflation dipped below 10% in April but continues to exceed consensus forecasts and remains significantly higher than the Bank of England 's 2% target. The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH), the ONS' preferred metric, rose by 7.9% in the 12 months to May 2023, up from 7.8% in April. LONDON — U.K. inflation came in hotter than expected in May, as consumer prices rose by an annual 8.7%, unchanged from the previous month. However, he said the Bank will now "feel like it has no choice, especially with core inflation now rising again."

Persons: Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, Marcus Brookes, Brookes, Thiru Organizations: OECD, Bank of England, ONS, Office, National Statistics, Reuters, LONDON, Organization, Economic Cooperation, Development, CPI, Quilter Investors, Bank Locations: Sheffield

☆ UK inflation rate surprises again with March figure holding above 10%
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

City workers in Paternoster Square, where the headquarters of the London Stock Exchange is based, in the City of London, UK, on Thursday, March 2, 2023. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesU.K. inflation unexpectedly remained in double-digits in March as households continued to grapple with soaring food and energy bills. The consumer price index rose by an annual 10.1%, according to the Office for National Statistics, above a consensus projection of 9.8% in a Reuters poll of economists. On a monthly basis, CPI inflation was 0.8%, above a Reuters consensus of 0.5% and down from the 1.1% of February. U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said the Wednesday figures reaffirm why the government must continue efforts to drive down inflation.

☆ UK economy flat in February as strikes and inflation bite — and the IMF delivers reality check
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

LONDON — The U.K. economy flatlined in February as widespread industrial action and persistently high inflation stymied activity. Large-scale strike action has been carried out in recent months by teachers, doctors, civil servants and rail workers, among others — members of the sectors that were the largest contributors to the fall in February services output. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility no longer expects the U.K. economy to enter a technical recession in 2023 — defined as two consecutive quarters of contractions. "Industrial strike action was the primary root cause of stagnating growth in the U.K. over the month. Much of the population also remains mired in a cost-of-living crisis, as inflation continues to vastly outpace wage growth, exacerbating the threat of further industrial action.

☆ UK economy rebounds with stronger-than-expected January GDP print
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON — The U.K. economy grew by 0.3% in January, official figures showed on Friday, exceeding expectations as it continues to fend off what economists see as an inevitable recession. The U.K. economy showed no growth in the final quarter of 2022 to narrowly avoid a recession — commonly defined as two quarters of negative growth — but shrunk by 0.5% in December. The ONS said Friday that monthly GDP is now estimated to be 0.2% below its pre-pandemic levels. Despite the better-than-expected January print, economists still broadly believe activity is on a downward trajectory, as high inflation eats into household incomes and business activity. While extending energy support will provide some relief to struggling households, aggressive tax rises would risk eliminating any lingering momentum from the economy," Thiru said.

☆ UK narrowly avoids recession in back half of 2022 despite December slump
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.K. economy showed no growth in the final quarter of 2022, but shrunk by 0.5% in December, more than expected by analysts, according to the country's Office for National Statistics Friday. The figures mean the country narrowly avoided a recession — commonly defined as two quarters of negative growth — following a 0.2% contraction in the third quarter. Overall, GDP increased by an estimated 4% over the course of 2022, following a 7.6% expansion in 2021 as the economy rebounded from the Covid-19 pandemic. The Bank of England last week forecast that the British economy would enter a shallow five-quarter recession in the first quarter of 2023. "We are still likely to be in a recession at some point during 2023 — which is still expected to be long and shallow - so these figures do not provide a huge amount of comfort."

Softening their forecasts of recession this year, the BoE's nine interest rate-setters voted 7-2 to increase Bank Rate to 4.0% - its highest since 2008 - from 3.5%. The announcement comes a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve slowed the pace of its rate hikes with a smaller quarter-point move, but said it expected further increases would be needed. The European Central Bank raised rates by a half a percentage point on Thursday to 2.5%. They said further interest rate hikes would hinge on evidence of more persistent price pressures appearing. That represented a signal to investors that its sharp run of rate hikes might be coming to an end.

☆ UK economy rebounds from royal funeral hit, outlook remains bleak
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Gross domestic product grew by 0.5% in October after September's 0.6% contraction, the Office for National Statistics said. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a 0.4% bounce-back. Despite the slight upside surprise, the figures are unlikely to change the view among investors and analysts that Britain's economy faces a bleak 2023. Even without further rate hikes, the economy would shrink in five of the six quarters until the end of 2023, it said. The ONS said the economy in October stood 0.4% above its pre-pandemic size.

Economic output shrank by 0.2% in the third quarter, less than the 0.5% contraction analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll, Friday's official data showed. The Bank of England said last week that Britain's economy was set to go into a recession that would last two years if interest rates were to rise as much as investors had been pricing. Even without further rate hikes, the economy would shrink in five of the six quarters until the end of 2023, it said. "Fears of a recession are turning into reality," Suren Thiru, economics director for the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said. In September alone, when the funeral of Queen Elizabeth was marked with a one-off public holiday that shut many businesses, Britain's economy shrank by 0.6%, the Office for National Statistics said.

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