The special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District to succeed the infamous George Santos offers perhaps the best chance to test Democrats’ theory ahead of the presidential election.
The candidate favored by Democrats won a Wisconsin Supreme Court race, which gave the more liberal justices a majority on that court.
Of course, we’re now in a presidential election year, and there are also signs that these off-year results may have been pointing at something important.
All the other competitive races were state elections, and voting patterns between US House and presidential elections are far more correlated than they are for state offices and presidential elections.
Moreover, that 3-point Republican edge in 2022 looks a lot like Trump’s current advantage over Biden among registered voters nationally.
Persons:
Joe Biden’s, George Santos, Tom Suozzi, Mazi Pilip, Biden, Santos, we’re, Donald Trump, Pilip, hasn’t, there’s
Organizations:
CNN — Democrats, Congressional District, Biden, Newsday, Siena, Republicans, Senate, Kentucky, Virginia Senate, Virginia House, Democrats, Wisconsin Supreme, Voters, Democratic, New York Times, Republican
Locations:
New York’s, Nassau, Long, Nassau County, Queens, Long Island, Virginia, Wisconsin, York