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This has spiked the interest rates small business owners are paying on new mortgages, credit, and loans. Related storiesPowell said that small business owners are poised to benefit regardless of the size of the cut and should remain hopeful about future growth. According to the National Federation of Independent Businesses, small business confidence dipped in August. AdvertisementHe said small businesses tend to be more credit-constrained, so changes in interest rates are particularly influential for business owners' management decisions. Are you a small business owner who has experienced a recent change in sales or hiring?
Persons: , Phil Powell, it's, Powell, Jerome Powell, Sean Higgins, Higgins Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Indiana Business Research Center, Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Federal Open Markets, Treasury Department, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University
The stagnation has resulted in a rise in "stuck" workers — frustrated employees who say they want to quit a job, but are staying put as the fear of a potential recession looms in the backs of their minds. Google search interest for the search phrase "quitting job" is down 11% over the last year, according to data accessed from the search analytics tool Glimpse. AdvertisementGoogle search interest in the term "recession" has exploded 230% over the past month, Glimpse data shows. Google search interest in "recession" has more than doubled in the past month. Job market forecasters say the slowdown in hiring looks poised to continue, even if the Fed begins to loosen monetary policy.
Persons: , That's, Amanda, It's, I've, Raymond Lee, Careerminds, Korn, Radhika Papandreou, Papandreou Organizations: Service, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference Board, Google, Fed, National Federation of Independent
Read previewThe US job market has certainly seen better days. AdvertisementThose rate cuts will help pull the job market out of its slowdown — but likely not before the unemployment rate climbs higher, says Oliver Allen, a senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. And even then, it could take time for the effects of rate cuts to fully work their way across the job market, said Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate. AdvertisementSlowdown in the pipelineUntil rate cuts kick in, Allen thinks the joblessness rate has even more room to climb. AdvertisementForward-looking indicators of job market strength have also been flashing signs of incoming weakness.
Persons: , Oliver Allen, Allen, , Mark Hamrick, Hamrick, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Business, Pantheon, Challenger, Gray &, Federal, National Federation of Independent Business
CNN —“Good news is bad news” has been a common refrain for a while now. When economic reports are released that are solid, they have all too often been clouded with concerns that good news for the economy actually means a longer wait before the Federal Reserve rolls out rate cuts. Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index cooled more than expected in May, with prices holding flat on the month for the first time since July 2022. The markets don’t seem to be buying the one-cut plan, especially after the Producer Price Index on Thursday showed that wholesale prices fell from April to May and the BLS’ Import and Export Price Index showed that US imports prices fell 0.4% in May after rising 0.9% in April. And more good news is likely on the way this next week and later this month, Brusuelas said.
Persons: CNN —, , Joe Brusuelas, , ” Brusuelas, spoilsport, Price, ” Chris Rupkey, , ” Rupkey, Brusuelas Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, RSM US, New York Fed, National Federation of Independent, Consumer, Index, BLS, Price, FwdBonds, CPI, PPI
Energy prices, which have been a major factor in the past two months' inflation readings, pushed higher on signs of further geopolitical turmoil. Minutes released Wednesday from the March Fed meeting showed officials were concerned about higher inflation and looking for more convincing evidence it is on a steady path lower. Sticky price CPI entails items such as housing, motor vehicle insurance and medical care services, while flexible price is concentrated in food, energy and vehicle prices. "If that's the case, you would require a decent amount of unemployment to get inflation all the way to 2.0%." That's why Furman and others have pushed for the Fed to rethink it's determined commitment to 2% inflation.
Persons: Spencer Platt, , Stocks, Jason Furman, We've, Israel, Jim Paulsen, Wells, Substack, Paulsen, Furman, Barack Obama, Jamie Dimon, John Williams, Susan Collins, it's, Larry Fink Organizations: Getty, Investors, Dow Jones, CNBC, of Economic Advisers, New York Fed, National Federation of Independent Business, Labor Department, JPMorgan, University of Michigan's, Boston, Commerce, CPI, Citigroup, Fed, Atlanta Fed, Dallas Fed, Harvard, BlackRock Locations: Manhattan, New York City, Iran, Israel
New York CNN —Jamie Dimon warned two years ago that storm clouds and a hurricane were brewing in the US economy. On top of that, the unemployment rate has stayed below 4% for more than two years despite 11 rate hikes intended to slow the economy in an effort to curb decades-high inflation. But potentially persistent inflation isn’t the only red flag in the economy right now. Small-business owners haven’t felt this bad about the economy in over a decadeAlthough the economy is booming by many measures, including last month’s blowout jobs report, small business owners aren’t feeling gung-ho about it. That’s significant because that cohort is experiencing an even lower unemployment rate than the nation overall.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Michelle Bowman, she’s, Bowman, ” Bowman, haven’t, Holly Wade, Bill Dunkelberg, aren’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve, FactSet, National Federation of Independent, York Locations: New York
Read previewToday's job market looks to be on solid footing, but there are subtle signs that hiring is starting to weaken, upping the odds that a recession strikes. The job market is already flashing key signs of weakness, and a hiring slowdown could be around the corner, Wall Street strategists have warned. Here are four signs the stellar US job market may be about to stumble:Advertisement1. But job-cut announcements rose to 257,254 over the first quarter, according to the career transitioning firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The risk of a coming recession could rise if the job market continues to slow, some forecasters have warned.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Gary Shilling, it's Organizations: Service, Street, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Challenger, National Federation of Independent Business, CNBC
Confidence among US small business owners is at an 11-year low, according to NFIB. High inflation, coupled with hiring woes and tight financial conditions, have dealt a blow to business. AdvertisementUS small business owners' confidence slumped to its lowest level in 11 years in March amid escalating inflationary pressures and sluggish sales expectations, according to the National Federation of Independent Business. The small business optimism index dropped to 88.5, hitting its lowest since December 2012, per NFIB's latest report. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, , It's Organizations: Service, National Federation of Independent Business, Business
Small business confidence hit its lowest level in more than 11 years for March as proprietors worried that inflation is still very much a problem. A quarter of all respondents reported that rising costs were the biggest problem. "Small business optimism has reached the lowest level since 2012 as owners continue to manage numerous economic headwinds," NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said. "Inflation has once again been reported as the top business problem on Main Street and the labor market has only eased slightly." A quarter of all respondents cited inflation, and in particular higher input and labor costs, as their most pressing issue.
Persons: Bill Dunkelberg Organizations: Costco Wholesale, National Federation of Independent Business, The Labor Department Locations: Colchester , Vermont
Stock futures were little changed on Monday, with rising Treasury yields limiting meaningful gains for equities and investors gearing up for forthcoming inflation data. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.1%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 16 points, or 0.04%. Stocks ended Monday's trading largely little changed, with the S&P 500 closing with a marginal decline of 0.04%. The 10-year Treasury yield topped 4.4%, as investors awaited Wednesday's consumer price index report for more insight into how the Federal Reserve's policy has been affecting inflation. However, she cautioned that a continued rise in the 10-year yield could signal cause for concern for the broader market.
Persons: Stocks, Dow Jones, Anastasia Amoroso, CNBC's, Amoroso Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Treasury, Federal, National Federation of Independent, CPI
According to Bank of America, valuation levels explain 80% of the market's return over a 10-year period. Bank of AmericaThere are many ways to measure valuation levels in the overall market. Hussman says it's the most accurate indicator of future market returns that he's found. AdvertisementThe Conference BoardThird, the number of US states with a rising unemployment rate is spiking, meaning that the overall unemployment rate should see further upside. BullAndBearProfits.comThe US unemployment rate is already on a slight uptrend, having climbed from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.9% as of February.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, John Hussman's, he's, Warren Buffett, Wolfenbarger, Stocks, Woflenbarger, Cam Harvey, Claudia Sahm, Louis Fed, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, David Rosenberg, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, Treasury, Bank, America's
Recession views are dangerously similar to those in 2007, SocGen's Albert Edwards said. Soft landing or no landing outlooks are growing on Wall Street as the US appears on solid economic footing. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Those signs appear lost on many other market commentators, who have dialed back their recession views in the last few months. "All this is (dangerously) reminiscent of 2007, when all around were telling me I was wrong and should give up calling that much-delayed recession," he later added.
Persons: SocGen's Albert Edwards, Edwards, , Société, Albert Edwards, That's, Doom, Nouriel Roubini Organizations: Service, Chicago, York Fed's Survey, Consumer, National Federation of Independent Business, National Association of Business, Fed, Investor Locations: York
Now, some economists think the Fed won’t cut interest rates at all this year. “The Fed will not cut rates this year and rates are going to stay higher for longer,” he added. Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin echoed the idea that the central bank may not cut interest rates this year. In some ways, the expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed undermined their efforts to actually cut the rates. Still, about half of investors are expecting an interest rate cut at the Fed’s June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Persons: , that’s, Jerome Powell, Torsten Slok, , Tom Barkin, ” Barkin, “ I’m, ” Robert Frick, , Powell Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Apollo Global Management, Richmond Federal, CNBC, Navy Federal Credit Union, CNN, Fed, National Federation of Independent, Investors, Financial Services, Senate Locations: New York, Richmond
While cooling inflation and a robust GDP reading that smashed economists’ expectations are reasons to be optimistic about the US economy, one key economic engine seems to still be sputtering: small businesses. Small business owners say they’re still grappling with the hangover effects of inflation and a labor shortage, according to the National Federation of Independent Business’s most recent monthly survey, which was conducted in January. Dougherty said small businesses may be delayed in feeling the effect of easing inflation, but once businesses experience more prolonged stable prices, that may help their sentiment turn around. A recent survey of American Express small business customers indicated that some small business owners see strength in 2024. Half of the 557 US small businesses surveyed said they plan to grow or expand their businesses in the upcoming year.
Persons: Kevin Meehan, ­, he’s, ” Meehan, , hasn’t, Kevin Meehan RJacobsonPhoto, we’d, that’s, Everything’s, , Charles Dougherty, Sarah Cash, Cash, Sarah Cash Elise Kutt, “ I’ve, ” Cash, it’s, they’re, doesn’t, Sunny, Dougherty, Meehan, I’m Organizations: CNN, Kali, National Federation of Independent, , US Chamber of Commerce, American Express, Valentine’s Locations: Los Angeles, Wells Fargo, United States, Grand Rapids , Michigan
Housing Market Hit by Bad Weather, High Mortgage Rates
  + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( Tim Smart | Feb. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +3 min
The housing market began 2024 in the doldrums as housing starts and permits for new construction both fell, the Census Bureau reported on Friday. Starts fell 14.8%, way more than the flat reading expected by economists. “High mortgage rates, with maybe a dash of cold weather, caused starts and permits to fall from December. The optimism is a turnaround from August 2023, when 80% of small businesses surveyed said their long-term financial confidence was being negatively affected by the economy. Some 50% of small business owners said they were planning to expand in 2024.
Persons: didn’t, , Robert Frick, Lisa Sturtevant, Ksenia Potapov, , they’re, Bill Dunkelberg Organizations: Census, Navy Federal Credit Union, MLS, , National Federation of Independent Business, American Express Locations: American
Small business optimism dips in January
  + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Kate Rogers | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSmall business optimism dips in JanuaryCNBC’s Kate Rogers on small business sentiment falling in January as owners continue to struggle with inflation and labor quality, per the National Federation of Independent Business.
Persons: Kate Rogers Organizations: National Federation of Independent Business
Small business owners' confidence level dropped in January, the National Federation of Independent Business said. AdvertisementSmall business sentiment logged the biggest drop in 13 months in January as business owners say inflation and high labor costs are creating headwinds. On top of that, small business owners anticipating increased sales in the next three months declined to -16% from -4% the prior month. "In January, optimism among small business owners dropped as inflation remains a key obstacle on Main Street." "The weaker small business optimism print seems at odds with a notable increase in consumer confidence during January," Wells Fargo said in a note.
Persons: , NFIB, they're, Bill Dunkelberg, Wells Fargo Organizations: National Federation of Independent Business, Service, Federal Reserve, Fed
Read previewThe labor market smashed expectations in January, adding 353,000 new jobs, far above economist forecasts of 187,000. Despite the strong headline number, however, there are signs that the job market is deteriorating beneath the surface. For one, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' household survey is showing some divergence from its payroll survey. "High labor and credit costs are beginning to materially impact corporate profits, which impacts both the labor market and (eventually) the default rate." Still, while there are signs of weakening, there are also signs of improvement in the labor market.
Persons: , Jeff Schulze, today's, Shulze, Louis Fed, Lance Roberts, Ian Shepherdson, Lauren Goodwin Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, of Labor Statistics, BLS, of Labor, ClearBridge Investments, RIA Advisors, National Federation of Independent Business, Pantheon, Bank of America's Global, New York Life Investments, ClearBridge
Seventy-five percent of small business owners are optimistic about their financial trajectory in 2024, up from 68% a year earlier, according to a survey by Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Business Voices, a policy advocate for small business owners. More than half of small business owners surveyed said they expect to create jobs this year, and 62% reported they anticipate profits will increase. The survey was conducted nationally in mid-January among more than 1,400 small business owners. Interestingly, small business owners found 2023 nearly as hard as 2020 — the peak of the pandemic and a time when many companies could not operate. Inflation is still a major concern for business owners, even as the rate of price increases falls.
Persons: Joe Biden, Alex Wong, Goldman Sachs, Joe Wall, Jill Bommarito, they've, Wall Organizations: White, National, Getty, CNBC, Baking Company, Foods, Target, Costco, headwinds, Small, National Federation of Independent Business, Federal Reserve Locations: Washington , DC, Detroit
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewAmerican consumers won't be able to prop up the US economy forever, and their wild spending spree over the holiday season was likely a "last hurrah," according to Wells Fargo. The job market also looks poised to keep softening, especially if the Fed chooses to keep interest rates higher-for-longer. "We do not believe that good holiday sales mean the spending strength will continue into and through the middle of this year." Strong consumer spending is believed to have propped up growth for much of 2023 as the Fed aggressively raised interest rates to control inflation.
Persons: , Wells, Scott Wren, Macquarie Organizations: Service, Business, Retail, National Federation of Independent Business, Philadelphia Fed, Wells Fargo, Wall, Fed Locations: Wells Fargo
The biggest risks US businesses face in 2024
  + stars: | 2024-01-14 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +11 min
But, while businesses have plenty to be grateful for and much to be optimistic about, the coast isn’t clear. Last week, surveys from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) and The Conference Board detailed the biggest risks that businesses are currently worried about. Here are some of the biggest risks for American businesses in 2024. Those financial stresses can reduce the willingness of banks to lend to others businesses and also to consumers,” she said. Bank earnings look really bad this quarter.
Persons: there’s, , John Maynard Keynes, , ” Dana Peterson, Bill Dunkelberg, ” Peterson, ” Suzanne Clark, We’re, Mike Johnson, Chuck Schumer, Fitch, Clark, JPMorgan Chase, Nicole Goodkind, Krystal Hur, FactSet, Martin Luther King Jr, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, US, of Commerce, of American, Conference Board, Conference, CNN, Fed, Corporate, US Chamber of Commerce, chamber’s State of American, AAA, Moody’s Investors Service, US Chamber, Commerce’s, Google, Citigroup, Bank, JPMorgan, FactSet, Revenue, Profit, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Bank of America, FDIC, Citi, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Alcoa, National Statistics, US Commerce Department, US Labor Department, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington, Wells, Corporate America, chamber’s State, BlackRock, Amazon, Argentina, Japan
He is the founder of Rosenberg Research and the former chief economist at Merrill Lynch — and he called the 2008 recession. Rosenberg ResearchRosenberg's model takes into account stock valuations, investor sentiment, market technicals, investor positioning, and macro fundamentals. Here's The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which bundles together manufacturing data, bond and stock market performance, housing market activity, and consumer sentiment data. The economy doesn't jump from a tight labor market to layoffs," Rosenberg said in a note on Friday. Labor market and inflation data in the months ahead will tell the story for the US economy.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch —, Rosenberg, It's, , Louis, GMO's Jeremy Grantham, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Business, Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St, CNN, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Rosenberg, Societe Generale's, Federal, Labor, CPI
Maybe I won’t set up that factory. These companies — the small, private enterprises that are responsible for roughly half the private-sector employment in the country — are already having to pay much more for debt. They fund their operations using cash from sales, business credit cards and private loans — all of which are generally more expensive options for financing payrolls and operations. Now, they’re paying 10 percent interest on short-term loans. Hiring within these firms has slowed, and their credit card balances are higher than they were before the pandemic, even as spending has slowed.
Persons: Ms, Sheth Organizations: National Federation of Independent Business, Bank of America Locations:
Back in June 2022, big banks approved 15.4% of small business loan applications. All those factors have added up to a grim environment if you’re a small business seeking a loan. Without two years of tax returns, however, she didn’t qualify for many small business loans. Online lenders were quick to offer their services, but the terms were too strict, requiring weekly repayments or interest rates up to 40%. “For a small business that is not only intimidating, it’s almost impossible," she said.
Persons: Banks, Cheyenne Smith, Smith, , Shantell Chambliss, Chambliss, , she’s, Nate Hodge, He’s, Hodge, “ It’s, ” Jen Rose, Rose Organizations: Federal Reserve, National Federation of Independent Business, Bee, Comerica Bank, Comerica Locations: Salt Lake City , Utah, Dakota, Richmond , Va, Capital, Dallas , Texas
Fed officials don’t expect inflation to reach 2% until 2026, according to their latest economic projections released in September. If there’s one thing that would make the Fed quake in its boots, it would be worsening inflation expectations. The keyword there is “timely.”Sticky inflation could possibly “un-anchor” inflation expectations or elicit a consistent deterioration in Americans’ perception on inflation. “The Fed really just wants people to not expect inflation will run at 4% forever.”So what’s kept inflation expectations in check this long? For individuals and married people filing separately, the new federal standard deduction will increase to $14,600, up from $13,850 this year.
Persons: we’ve, Raphael Bostic, , ” Luke Tilley, , Jerome Powell, presser, Powell, Michelle Bowman, Tilley, ” Drew Matus, what’s, Matus, “ They’re, Jeanne Sahadi, Lisa Cook, Phillip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, John Williams, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, University of Michigan’s, Atlanta Fed, Bloomberg, Investment Advisors, CNN, , New York Bankers Association, New York Fed, MetLife Investment Management, IRS, Tyson Foods, Depot, US Labor Department, National Federation of Independent Business, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Target, National Statistics, US Commerce Department, Walmart, National Association of Home Builders, San Francisco Fed Locations: Washington, Wilmington, Palm Beach , Florida
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