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Opinion | Should Biden Downplay His Own Success?
  + stars: | 2024-06-03 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
The performance of America’s economy over the past two years has been remarkable, especially given the dire predictions of many observers. Remember the economists who forecast a recession in 2023? Remember all those warnings that getting inflation down would require years of high unemployment? Stocks are way up since President Biden took office. Yet there’s still a lingering conventional wisdom that says Biden shouldn’t trumpet his economic record.
Persons: Biden, there’s, Jimmy Carter’s Organizations: Washington
Russia knows Putin's Crimea bridge is "doomed," a Ukrainian official told The Economist. Dmitry Pletenchuk said Russia is using a new railway because it knows the bridge is in trouble. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementRussia knows its Crimea bridge is doomed, which is forcing it to rely on a new railway for its military, according to a Ukrainian official. It came after the US supplied long-range ATACMS to Ukraine, putting higher-value targets, including Crimea's Kerch Bridge, in Ukraine's crosshairs.
Persons: Dmitry Pletenchuk, Organizations: Service, Business Locations: Russia, Crimea, Ukrainian, Ukraine, Kerch, Ukraine's
The criminal trial and conviction of (mostly former) national leaders has happened in stable, mature democracies, just as it has in former dictatorships. The track record of convicted leaders shows just how risky it is to try to predict what will happen. In 2017, South Korea impeached and later criminally convicted now-former President Park Geun-hye in a bizarre corruption scandal involving the influence of a friend and confidante. After a scandal emerged involving the state oil company Petrobras, Lula was convicted in 2017 of corruption and money laundering. “Political leaders can choose how they will speak about these institutions.”
Persons: Chris Good, Donald Trump, , Trump, Stormy Daniels, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Sebastian Kurz, ” Kurz, Park, , Nicole Bibbins Sedaca, Nicolas Sarkozy, Bertrand Guay, Bibbins Sedaca, Jacques Chirac, ” Bibbins Sedaca, Sarkozy, Moammar Gaddhafi illicitly, Silvio Berlusconi, Yara Nardi, Berlusconi “, , Berlusconi, Matteo Salvini, Giorgia Meloni, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Nelson Almeida, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Lula, Jair Bolsonaro, Oliver Stuenkel, Fundação Getulio Vargas, ” Stuenkel, Politicization, Stuenkel, didn’t, Lula “, Mark Peterson, Ariel Edwards, Levy, Lula —, Chirac, Trump’s Organizations: CNN, ABC News, Economist Intelligence Unit, Freedom House, Getty, Freedom, Reuters, Forza Italia, Five Star, AFP, Brazil, Petrobras, Bolsonaro, School of International Relations, Fundação, NEW, Manhattan Criminal, Trump, Twitter, Facebook Locations: The, Manhattan, Argentina, Austrian, South Korea, Washington, DC, France, Italy, Brazil, Paris, AFP, Moroccan, Milan, Trump, America, São Paulo
Read previewOpenAI CEO Sam Altman wasn't fired from his position as Y Combinator president in 2019, the startup accelerator's cofounder Paul Graham said on Thursday. "People have been claiming YC fired Sam Altman. Both outlets reported that Altman was asked to leave the organization for favoring his personal interests over Y Combinator's. AdvertisementRepresentatives for Altman and Y Combinator did not immediately respond to requests for comment from BI sent outside regular business hours. "We do not accept the claims made by Ms Toner and Ms McCauley regarding events at OpenAI," Taylor and Summers wrote.
Persons: , Sam Altman wasn't, Y, Paul Graham, Sam Altman, That's, Graham, OpenAI, Sam, Jessica, Jessica Livingston, Altman, he'd, 3YvBDH7oqV — Paul Graham, Graham's, Y Combinator, Combinator, OpenAI's, Helen Toner, who'd, Toner, Tasha McCauley, Bret Taylor, Larry Summers, McCauley, Ms Toner, Ms McCauley, Taylor, Summers, Toner's, Mr Altman Organizations: Service, YC, Business, we'd, Wall Street, The Washington Post, BI, OpenAI Locations: OpenAI
Ukraine's special forces have developed new drone tech that Russia can't jam. Drones can now fly and hit targets without GPS or operator input, The Economist reported. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementUkraine's special forces have developed new software that allows drones to fly without the use of GPS, limiting the impact of Russian jamming. The software, called Eagle Eyes, allows unmanned drones to travel using sight rather than satellite-based GPS navigation, The Economist reported.
Persons: Organizations: Service, Business Locations: Russia, Ukraine
Argentina's President Javier Milei waves during the commemoration of the 214th anniversary of the May Revolution that led to the independence from Spain, at Plaza San Martin in Cordoba, Argentina, on May 25, 2024. On his seventh overseas trip since taking office late last year, Argentina's Milei traveled to San Francisco late Monday and has since met with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, Google's Sundar Pichai and Apple CEO Tim Cook. The right-wing leader, and self-described "anarcho capitalist," is scheduled to meet with Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg before departing from the U.S. on Friday. On a separate trip to the U.S. last month, Milei met with tech billionaire Elon Musk at a Tesla electric car factory in Austin, Texas. The growth of AI data centres will also require significant energy and water resources, of which Argentina has in abundance."
Persons: Javier Milei, Diego Lima, Argentina's Milei, Sam Altman, Google's Sundar Pichai, Tim Cook, Mark Zuckerberg, Milei, Elon Musk, Nicolas Saldias, Saldias, Mariano Machado, Verisk Maplecroft, We're, " Machado, Javier Milei's, Luis Robayo Organizations: Plaza San, Afp, Getty, Apple, Meta, U.S, Analysts, America, Economist Intelligence Unit, CNBC, Americas, Verisk Locations: Spain, Plaza San Martin, Cordoba, Argentina, San Francisco, U.S, Austin , Texas, Olivos, Buenos Aires Province
Read previewThis has been the week of dueling op-eds from former and current OpenAI board members. Current OpenAI board members Bret Taylor and Larry Summers issued a response to AI safety concerns on Thursday, stating that "the board is taking commensurate steps to ensure safety and security." In the last six months, the two current board members said they had found Altman "highly forthcoming on all relevant issues and consistently collegial with his management team." She also said that the old OpenAI board found out about ChatGPT's release on Twitter. OpenAI dissolved the superalignment safety team before later announcing the formation of a new safety committee.
Persons: , Bret Taylor, Larry Summers, Helen Toner, Tasha McCauley, Sam Altman, Taylor, Summers, Altman, OpenAI, WilmerHale, Toner, Openai, he's, Jan Leike, Ilya Sutskever, Gretchen Krueger, Leike, Krueger Organizations: Service, Business, Twitter, World, Summit
The stock market is primed for a correction as equity valuations hit historically high levels, according to economist David Rosenberg. AdvertisementThe stock market is "primed for a correction" as earnings valuations hit historically high levels, according to economist David Rosenberg. That suggests that the expansion in the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings valuation multiple to 21x from 18x in October is getting stretched. Wall Street consensus for the S&P 500's 2024 earnings per share is $245, which is the same forecast today as it was in October, before the stock market staged a near-30% rally. AdvertisementThat has informed Rosenberg's consistently bearish view, but the economist did say that high valuations on their own do not mean the stock market can't go higher from here.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, , " Rosenberg, Rosenberg's Organizations: Service
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Advertisement"Right now there's way too much confidence about the future trajectory of AI," Romer said. However, the economist argued there was not enough data available for the tech to keep progressing at the same pace. "It's just a lot of hype, the typical bubble hype where people are trying to cash in on the latest trend." Taken together, Romer and Kaltbaum see AI-linked stocks as hogging the market's gains — rightfully or not — and view the frenzy as a sign of problems ahead.
Persons: , Paul Romer, Gee, Romer, Gary Kaltbaum, Kaltbaum Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business, World Bank, Boston College, Nvidia, Nike, Kaltbaum Capital Management, Fox Business
The BRICS bloc could pick up its de-dollarization agenda at its October summit in Kazan, Russia. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe BRICS group of emerging nations has been agitating for a move away from US dollar dominance. Last year, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva called for a BRICS common currency.
Persons: , Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, United Arab Emirates — Organizations: Service, United, United Arab Emirates, Business Locations: Kazan, Russia, Brazil, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, United Arab
It also reflects that there's money in the system — but Chinese consumers are just really not that keen on dropping their hard-earned cash at Starbucks or Gucci. China's demand for gold jewelry softened in the first quarter of this year due to the surge in gold prices but was still holding up well, according to the council. Gen Z Chinese consumers ditch luxury for goldUnlike the rush into gold assets, Chinese consumers are not running out to buy even more stuff, particularly foreign imports. China's savings rate was around 32% last year — compared to around 4% in the US, according to a McKinsey analysis of official data. "Chinese households are increasingly confronted by the weak long-term Chinese growth outlook and the slumping prices in China's residential real estate market," said Biswas.
Persons: , Rajiv Biswas, Gen, LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, Gucci, Yves Saint Laurent, Laxman Narasimhan, Nomura, Lynn Song, Jean, Jacques Guiony, Biswas, McKinsey Organizations: Service, Gucci, Business, World Gold, Bloomberg, Starbucks, Huawei, Nomura, ING, McKinsey Locations: Japan, China, American, Greater China
Read previewTwo former OpenAI board members say artificial intelligence companies can't be trusted to govern themselves and that third-party regulation is necessary to hold them accountable. Helen Toner and Tasha McCauley were board members at OpenAI before they stepped down in November amid a chaotic push to oust OpenAI cofounder Sam Altman. AdvertisementWith Altman back at the helm, Toner and McCauley wrote that OpenAI can't be trusted to hold itself accountable. Related storiesThe former board members wrote that they once believed that OpenAI could govern itself, but "based on our experience, we believe that self-governance cannot reliably withstand the pressure of profit incentives." AdvertisementThe board's 22 members include Altman and chief executives of large tech companies, including Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai.
Persons: , Helen Toner, Tasha McCauley, OpenAI, Sam Altman, Altman, Scarlett Johansson, Chat, Toner, McCauley, — bode, Jensen Huang, Sundar Pichai, ethicists, Margaret Mitchell Organizations: Service, Business, Department of Homeland Security, Artificial Intelligence, Security Board, Nvidia, Ars Technica Locations: OpenAI
Fears of a potential banking crisis are on the rise as interest rates stay elevated. Interest rates are now at their highest levels since 2001 as the Fed keeps an eye on inflation. Markets have already seen 1 regional bank fail this year, according to FDIC data. According to Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, the longer interest rates stay high, the more the Fed risks damaging the economy. "That's the kind of thing I'm worried about in the context of persistently high interest rates."
Persons: , Mark Zandi, That's, Barry Sternlicht, Sternlicht, Daniel Pinto Organizations: Fed, Service, Analytics, Yahoo Finance, Bank, Regulators, First Bank, Fulton Bank, Stanhope Capital, Bloomberg Locations: Philadelphia, America
Most non-retired adults have some type of retirement savings, but only 36% think their savings are on track. New research from economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York finds that this retirement savings deficit hasn’t made a dent in when Americans plan to exit, or partially exit, the workforce. “The pandemic-induced change in retirement expectations may continue to affect the labor market in years to come,” they wrote. Yes, but: This is a survey of expectations, researchers at the New York Fed are quick to point out. Just because Americans say they plan to shift to part-time work or retire early, it doesn’t mean that they’ll be able to.
Persons: Felix Aidala, Gizem Kosar, Wilbert van der, , They’re, Alicia Wallace, delinquencies, Joelle, CNN’s Parija, Donna Morris, Morris, ” Morris Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Census, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Social Security, New, Survey, SCE, triannual, Social, Social Security Agency, Lawmakers, New York Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of New, , Public Policy Research, Credit, Walmart, CNN, San Francisco Bay Area Locations: New York, United States, York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bentonville , Arkansas, Walmart’s Dallas, Atlanta, Toronto, Bentonville, San Francisco Bay, Hoboken , New Jersey
Read previewThe US has been outclassed by its rivals, such as Russia, in its capacity to remotely take out enemy weapons using jamming technology, according to former US military officials. He called on the US to get more creative to regain its dominance in electronic warfare. AdvertisementLast year, Ukraine's outgoing senior commander, Valery Zaluzhnyi, in an interview with The Economist, said Russia's electronic warfare capability had given it an important edge. The US is closely studying the conflict for information on how to improve its electronic warfare systems. In May, Defense News that the Pentagon is spending millions on developing new electronic warfare systems and technology to evade GPS jamming.
Persons: , Mike Nagata, Nagata, they've, Valery Zaluzhnyi, Mark Cancian, Grant Shapps Organizations: Service, US Army, Business, Russia, US, Defense News, Pentagon, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Department of Defense Locations: Russia, Ukraine, United States, Tampa , Florida, Europe
Read previewRussian forces are increasingly relying on light and fast vehicles like ATVs and motorbikes to move troops to the front lines, conduct reconnaissance of Ukrainian positions, and execute assaults. Ukraine's forces were operating quad bikes as early as April 2022, just weeks after Russia launched its full-scale invasion, to ambush Russian forces. AdvertisementWhile Russia's lighter vehicles are more vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks than its heavy armor, Moscow has still lost scores of tanks and armored vehicles on the battlefield, including to Kyiv's exploding FPV drones. AdvertisementRussia hasn't completely turned its back on its armored vehicles, though. Last week, for instance, Moscow launched a new assault in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region and tried using armored vehicles to break through defensive lines.
Persons: , Chasiv Yar, ROMAN PILIPEY, Rob Lee, WX4nTcfqEO, — Rob Lee, Diego Herrera Carcedo, Pavlo Fedosenko, Ukraine's, Russia hasn't, Volodymyr Zelenskyy Organizations: Service, Business, Russia, Getty, Foreign Policy Research Institute, 177th Naval Infantry Regiment Locations: Russia, Russian, Chasiv, Donetsk, AFP, Ukrainian, Moscow, Kreminna, Donetsk Oblast, Anadolu, Ukraine's, Kharkiv
To President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, appointing a new defense minister provides a new building block toward fighting a long war. That was evident in Moscow on Monday when Andrei R. Belousov, the economist who was Mr. Putin’s surprise pick to lead Russia’s sprawling defense ministry, made his first public appearance in his new role and spoke about bureaucracy rather than the battlefield. It reflects an acknowledgment that the military production that is supplying Russia’s war, and heating its economy, must be carefully managed to sustain a war of attrition with Ukraine. At the same time, Russia is playing the long game on the battlefield. In northeastern Ukraine, Russian forces mounting a new offensive are pushing forward slowly rather than attempting major breakthroughs to big cities, as they did at the beginning of the war — with disastrous results.
Persons: Vladimir V, Putin, Andrei R, Putin’s Locations: Russia, Moscow, Ukraine, Russian
The town of Vovchansk in the northern Kharkiv region, liberated from Russian occupation more than 18 months ago, awoke Friday to intense shelling and aerial bombardment. As of Saturday, it appeared the Russians still held a handful of Ukrainian border villages, with intense aerial bombardment continuing in the Vovchansk area. Barros says that it is instead to compel Ukrainian forces to pivot from Donetsk to Kharkiv region. Gunners fire at Russian positions in the Kharkiv region on April 21. In Krasnohorivka, for example, Ukrainian units were able for months to use apartment buildings and a brick factory as defensive positions.
Persons: Volodymyr Zelensky, Vadym Skibitsky, George Barros, Sever, , ” Barros, Anatolii Stepanov, Barros, exacerbates, Vyacheslav Madiyevskyy, Zelensky, Chasiv, Chasiv Yar, Skibitsky, Stanislav, , that’s Organizations: CNN, Ukraine, Russian, Ukrainian Defense Intelligence, Institute for, ” Gunners, Getty, Manpower, Reuters, Gunners, Kharkiv, United States, Zelensky Locations: Vovchansk, Kharkiv, Russia, Donetsk, Ukraine, North, Washington, “ Russia, Ukrainian, AFP, Sumy, Donetsk oblast, Belgorod, Russian, Chasiv Yar, Chasiv, , Kreminna, Kharkiv oblast
Eastern Ukraine, a Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29 Wild Weasel fires off an AGM-88 HARM towards a Russian radar. (Summer ‘22) pic.twitter.com/IOeu7hzUxW — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 8, 2024The US Air Force pioneered SEAD tactics in the Vietnam War. The term "wild weasel" originated from Project Wild Weasel. This US Air Force anti-SAM strategy used direct attacks to suppress enemy air defenses, according to the National Museum of the US Air Force. But, he added Ukraine's tactics "go far beyond the classic wild weasel missions of Anti-Radiation Missile equipped aircraft."
Persons: , UkrAF Su, McDonnell Douglas, Stuart Lutz, Gado, Seaman Anthony N, Frederik Mertens, Mertens, William LaPlante, Justin Bronk, Bronk, Russian SAMs, James Hecker, Kajsa Ollongren, Putin Organizations: Service, Ukraine's, US Air Force, Radiation, Business, Ukrainian Air Force, Air, National Museum of, US Navy, US, U.S . Navy, Communication, Hague, Strategic Studies, Radiation Missile, Defense, Washington DC, Wild, Technology, Royal United Services Institute, Russian SAM, United States Air Forces, Air Force, Space, Rygge Air Force Base, OLE BERG, Getty, Dutch Defense Locations: Ukraine's Soviet, Eastern Ukraine, Russian, Ukraine, Ukrainian, treetop, Vietnam, Libya, Iraq, Yugoslavia, London, Europe, Romania, Norway, AFP, Netherlands, Vilnius, Denmark, Crimea, Kerch
The Fed risks "breaking" something in the economy if it delays rate cuts, according to Moody's Mark Zandi. Higher interest rates raise the odds of recession or bank failures, the economist warned. "If I were king for the day, I would really be cutting rates at this point," Zandi told Yahoo Finance. Speaking to Yahoo Finance on Thursday, Zandi warned of the consequences that could arise if the Fed doesn't cut interest rates over the next few months. Keeping rates at their current level raises the risk of recession, and could expose other cracks in the financial system, Zandi warned.
Persons: Moody's Mark Zandi, Zandi, , Mark Zandi Organizations: Yahoo Finance, Service, Moody's, Business
The US could use a simple tool to strategically weaken the US dollar for economic gains. A reduction in the federal deficit would help tame inflation and weaken the US dollar. AdvertisementThat's why a weakening US dollar is music to the ears of American corporations, trade partners, and policymakers. That agreement devalued the US dollar, stabilized trade with Japan, and helped reduce the US trade deficit. A balanced Federal budget would help them achieve that scenario without putting the economy at risk.
Persons: , It's, isn't, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, Swiss, America's, China, Accord Locations: Europe, China, Japan, Asia
The proposal covers a range of issues, including minimum technical standards and ecological guidelines for battery production. AdvertisementChina's battery production in 2023 alone was already big enough to fill global demand, according to an analysis from BloombergNEF. China's global share of battery manufacturing capacity is expected to fallDespite the West's consternation, there is an upside for the bloc. China's global share of battery manufacturing is expected to decline in the years ahead, according to a report from the International Energy Agency, or IEA, published on Monday. AdvertisementChina now accounts for more than 80% of battery manufacturing capacity, followed by the US and the EU with around 5% each, per the IEA.
Persons: China's, , Xi Jinping's, Louise Loo, Loo, Chim Lee, Lee Organizations: Service, China's Ministry of Industry, Information Technology, European Union, Oxford Economics, Economist Intelligence, International Energy Agency, US, EU Locations: China, Beijing, Canada, Europe, India
US presidential candidates Biden and Trump both vow to get tough on China. EIU predicts worsening US-China economic and diplomatic ties over the 2020s. EIU doesn't expect US trade policies to significantly reduce China's role in global production networks. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe US presidential election is less than six months away, and Democratic and Republican presidential nominee frontrunners Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both vowed to get tough on China.
Persons: Trump, EIU, , frontrunners Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden Organizations: Biden, Service, Democratic, Republican, Economist Intelligence Unit, Business Locations: China
Xi is spending two days in France, meeting French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday before heading to Serbia and Hungary. "I'm calling for an 'aggiornamento' because China is now in excess capacity in many areas and exports massively to Europe," Macron told La Tribune Dimanche, per a Bloomberg translation. She said China's trade practices are leading to unfair trade that are "market-distorting" and "could lead to deindustrialization in Europe." China has pushed back on the West's claims of overcapacity, accusing the bloc of being protectionist and of trying to curb China's economic development. However, Europe — like China — isn't quite the same anymore, following years of economic malaise punctuated by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
Persons: , Janet Yellen, Olaf Scholz, Xi Jinping's, Emmanuel Macron, Macron, Matt Geraci, Geraci, Ursula von der Leyen, Von, Leyen, Léonie Allard, Allard, Xi Organizations: Service, State Authority, European Union, Business, La Tribune Dimanche, Atlantic, Associated Press, European, overcapacity, Council's Locations: China, France, Serbia, Hungary, European, Germany, Europe, Beijing, Washington, Russia, Ukraine
CNN —President Vladimir Putin has ordered Russian forces to rehearse deploying tactical nuclear weapons, as part of military drills to respond to what he called “threats” by the West. Since invading Ukraine in 2022, Putin has repeatedly made veiled threats to use tactical nuclear weapons against the West, but Monday marked the first time Russia has publicly announced drills. “During the exercises, a set of measures will be carried out to practice the issues of preparation and use of non-strategic nuclear weapons,” Russia’s defense ministry said. Non-strategic, or “tactical,” nuclear weapons can be used in battlefield situations, carrying less power than strategic nuclear weapons, which have the potential to level entire cities. Putin said Russia would not be the first to test nuclear weapons, but would do so in the event of a US test.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Putin, Dmitry Peskov, Emmanuel Macron, I’m, ” Macron, Ludovic Marin, David Cameron, ” Cameron, Macron, , Joe Biden, Organizations: CNN, Russia, Economist, Getty, United, Ukraine, Kyiv, State Department, US, military’s, Staff, Southern Military District Locations: Russian, Ukraine, Russia, Western, Europe, AFP, United Kingdom, United States, Moscow, Hiroshima, Nagasaki
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